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Giardina F, Romero-Severson EO, Albert J, Britton T, Leitner T. Inference of Transmission Network Structure from HIV Phylogenetic Trees. PLoS Comput Biol 2017; 13:e1005316. [PMID: 28085876 PMCID: PMC5279806 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2016] [Revised: 01/30/2017] [Accepted: 12/19/2016] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Phylogenetic inference is an attractive means to reconstruct transmission histories and epidemics. However, there is not a perfect correspondence between transmission history and virus phylogeny. Both node height and topological differences may occur, depending on the interaction between within-host evolutionary dynamics and between-host transmission patterns. To investigate these interactions, we added a within-host evolutionary model in epidemiological simulations and examined if the resulting phylogeny could recover different types of contact networks. To further improve realism, we also introduced patient-specific differences in infectivity across disease stages, and on the epidemic level we considered incomplete sampling and the age of the epidemic. Second, we implemented an inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to discriminate among three well-studied network models and jointly estimate both network parameters and key epidemiological quantities such as the infection rate. Our ABC framework used both topological and distance-based tree statistics for comparison between simulated and observed trees. Overall, our simulations showed that a virus time-scaled phylogeny (genealogy) may be substantially different from the between-host transmission tree. This has important implications for the interpretation of what a phylogeny reveals about the underlying epidemic contact network. In particular, we found that while the within-host evolutionary process obscures the transmission tree, the diversification process and infectivity dynamics also add discriminatory power to differentiate between different types of contact networks. We also found that the possibility to differentiate contact networks depends on how far an epidemic has progressed, where distance-based tree statistics have more power early in an epidemic. Finally, we applied our ABC inference on two different outbreaks from the Swedish HIV-1 epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Federica Giardina
- Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Ethan Obie Romero-Severson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Jan Albert
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Tom Britton
- Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Thomas Leitner
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
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Angelis K, Albert J, Mamais I, Magiorkinis G, Hatzakis A, Hamouda O, Struck D, Vercauteren J, Wensing AMJ, Alexiev I, Åsjö B, Balotta C, Camacho RJ, Coughlan S, Griskevicius A, Grossman Z, Horban A, Kostrikis LG, Lepej S, Liitsola K, Linka M, Nielsen C, Otelea D, Paredes R, Poljak M, Puchhammer-Stöckl E, Schmit JC, Sönnerborg A, Staneková D, Stanojevic M, Boucher CAB, Kaplan L, Vandamme AM, Paraskevis D. Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia. J Infect Dis 2014; 211:1735-44. [PMID: 25512631 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiu666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2014] [Accepted: 11/24/2014] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. METHODS We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. RESULTS We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. DISCUSSION The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Konstantinos Angelis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece
| | - Jan Albert
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor, and Cell Biology Department of Clinical Microbiology, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Ioannis Mamais
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece
| | - Gkikas Magiorkinis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Angelos Hatzakis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece
| | | | | | - Jurgen Vercauteren
- Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, KU Leuven, Belgium
| | | | - Ivailo Alexiev
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | | | | | - Ricardo J Camacho
- Centro de Malária e OutrasDoenças Tropicais and Unidade de Microbiologia, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Snjezana Lepej
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics and Flow Cytometry, University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Dr F. Mihaljevic, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Kirsi Liitsola
- National Institute of Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marek Linka
- National Reference Laboratory of AIDS, National Institute of Health, Prague, Czech Republic
| | | | - Dan Otelea
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases Prof Dr Matei Bals, Bucharest, Romania
| | | | - Mario Poljak
- Faculty of Medicine, Slovenian HIV/AIDS Reference Center, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | | | | | - Anders Sönnerborg
- Division of Infectious Diseases Division of Clinical Virology, Karolinska Institute Department of Clinical Microbiology, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | | | - Lauren Kaplan
- Alcohol Research Group, University California, Berkeley
| | - Anne-Mieke Vandamme
- Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, KU Leuven, Belgium Centro de Malária e OutrasDoenças Tropicais and Unidade de Microbiologia, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Dimitrios Paraskevis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece
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Danielsson A, Palanisamy N, Golbob S, Yin H, Blomberg J, Hedlund J, Sylvan S, Lennerstrand J. Transmission of hepatitis C virus among intravenous drug users in the Uppsala region of Sweden. Infect Ecol Epidemiol 2014; 4:22251. [PMID: 24455107 PMCID: PMC3895264 DOI: 10.3402/iee.v4.22251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2013] [Revised: 11/28/2013] [Accepted: 12/12/2013] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Epidemiology and transmission patterns of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are important subjects as we enter a new era of treatment with directly acting antivirals (DAAs). The highest prevalence of HCV in developed countries is found among intravenous drug users (IDUs), where unsafe needle sharing practices provide the main route of infection. Efforts to prohibit the continuous spread of HCV among these groups have been initiated by the community services and health care providers. Our goal was to understand how HCV was transmitted among IDUs within a limited population group. We provide a retrospective study (2005–2007) of the HCV transmission patterns in a population of IDUs in the Uppsala region of Sweden. Method Eighty-two serum samples were collected from IDUs in Uppsala County. Our reverse transcription nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-nested PCR) and sequencing method enabled a comprehensive genetic analysis for a broad spectrum of genotypes of two relatively conserved regions, NS5B and NS3, that encodes for the viral polymerase and protease, respectively. HCV RNA in serum samples was amplified and sequenced with in-house primers. Sequence similarities between individuals and subgroups were analyzed with maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees. Published HCV reference sequences from other geographic regions and countries were also included for clarity. Results Phylogenetic analysis was possible for 59 NS5B (72%) and 29 NS3 (35%) sequences from Uppsala patients. Additionally, we also included 15 NS3 sequences from Örebro patients, making a total of 44 NS3 sequences for the analysis. By analyzing the NS3 sequences, two transmission sets were found between the IDUs (>98% sequence identity), with one set consisting of two individuals and another set consisting of three individuals. In addition, the phylogenetic analysis done with our serum samples displayed clusters that distinguished them from the reference sequences. Conclusion Our method seems to enable us to trace the HCV transmission between IDUs. Furthermore, the method is fairly independent of the time of infection because the method uses relatively conserved HCV sequence regions (i.e. NS5B and NS3).
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Affiliation(s)
- Axel Danielsson
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Navaneethan Palanisamy
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Sultan Golbob
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Hong Yin
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jonas Blomberg
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Johan Hedlund
- Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Uppsala County Council, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Staffan Sylvan
- Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Uppsala County Council, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Johan Lennerstrand
- Section of Clinical Virology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Paraskevis D, Pybus O, Magiorkinis G, Hatzakis A, Wensing AMJ, van de Vijver DA, Albert J, Angarano G, Åsjö B, Balotta C, Boeri E, Camacho R, Chaix ML, Coughlan S, Costagliola D, De Luca A, de Mendoza C, Derdelinckx I, Grossman Z, Hamouda O, Hoepelman IM, Horban A, Korn K, Kücherer C, Leitner T, Loveday C, MacRae E, Maljkovic-Berry I, Meyer L, Nielsen C, Op de Coul ELM, Ormaasen V, Perrin L, Puchhammer-Stöckl E, Ruiz L, Salminen MO, Schmit JC, Schuurman R, Soriano V, Stanczak J, Stanojevic M, Struck D, Van Laethem K, Violin M, Yerly S, Zazzi M, Boucher CA, Vandamme AM. Tracing the HIV-1 subtype B mobility in Europe: a phylogeographic approach. Retrovirology 2009; 6:49. [PMID: 19457244 PMCID: PMC2717046 DOI: 10.1186/1742-4690-6-49] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2008] [Accepted: 05/20/2009] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The prevalence and the origin of HIV-1 subtype B, the most prevalent circulating clade among the long-term residents in Europe, have been studied extensively. However the spatial diffusion of the epidemic from the perspective of the virus has not previously been traced. RESULTS In the current study we inferred the migration history of HIV-1 subtype B by way of a phylogeography of viral sequences sampled from 16 European countries and Israel. Migration events were inferred from viral phylogenies by character reconstruction using parsimony. With regard to the spatial dispersal of the HIV subtype B sequences across viral phylogenies, in most of the countries in Europe the epidemic was introduced by multiple sources and subsequently spread within local networks. Poland provides an exception where most of the infections were the result of a single point introduction. According to the significant migratory pathways, we show that there are considerable differences across Europe. Specifically, Greece, Portugal, Serbia and Spain, provide sources shedding HIV-1; Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, on the other hand, are migratory targets, while for Denmark, Germany, Italy, Israel, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK we inferred significant bidirectional migration. For Poland no significant migratory pathways were inferred. CONCLUSION Subtype B phylogeographies provide a new insight about the geographical distribution of viral lineages, as well as the significant pathways of virus dispersal across Europe, suggesting that intervention strategies should also address tourists, travellers and migrants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dimitrios Paraskevis
- Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Rega Institute for Medical research, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
- National Retrovirus Reference Center, Department of Hygiene Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, M. Asias 75, GR-11527, Athens, Greece
| | - Oliver Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Gkikas Magiorkinis
- National Retrovirus Reference Center, Department of Hygiene Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, M. Asias 75, GR-11527, Athens, Greece
| | - Angelos Hatzakis
- National Retrovirus Reference Center, Department of Hygiene Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, M. Asias 75, GR-11527, Athens, Greece
| | - Annemarie MJ Wensing
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Virology, G04.614, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - David A van de Vijver
- Department of Virology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, Postbus 2040 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jan Albert
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cellbiology, Karolinska Institutet, SE 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
- Dept of Virology, Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, SE-171 82 Solna, Sweden
| | - Guiseppe Angarano
- University of Foggia, Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Ospedali Riuniti – Via L. Pinto 71100 Foggia, Italy
| | - Birgitta Åsjö
- Center for Research in Virology, University of Bergen, Bergen High Technology Center, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Claudia Balotta
- University of Milano, Institute of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122 Milano, Italy
| | - Enzo Boeri
- Diagnostica and Ricerca San Raffaele, Centro San Luigi, I.R.C.C.S. Istituto Scientifico San Raffaele, Milan, Italy
| | - Ricardo Camacho
- Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Laboratorio de Virologia, Rua da Junqueira 96 1349-008 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Marie-Laure Chaix
- EA 3620, Universite Paris Descartes, Virologie, CHU Necker, Paris France
| | - Suzie Coughlan
- National Virus Reference Laboratory, University College, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Dominique Costagliola
- INSERM U263 et SC4, Faculté de médecine Saint-Antoine, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 27 rue de Chaligny, F-75571 Paris, France
| | - Andrea De Luca
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Catholic University, L.go A. Gemelli, 8 00168 Rome, Italy
| | | | | | - Zehava Grossman
- National. HIV Reference Lab, Central Virology, Public Health Laboratories, MOH Central Virology, Sheba Medical Center, 2 Ben-Tabai Street, Israel
| | - Osama Hamouda
- Robert Koch Institut (RKI), Nordufer 20, 13353 Berlin, Germany
| | - IM Hoepelman
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases F02.126, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Horban
- Hospital for Infectious Diseases, Center for Diagnosis & Therapy Warsaw 37, Wolska Str. 01-201 Warszawa, Poland
| | - Klaus Korn
- University of Erlangen, Schlossplatz 4, D-91054 Erlangen, Germany
| | | | - Thomas Leitner
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cellbiology, Karolinska Institutet, SE 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
- Dept of Virology, Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, SE-171 82 Solna, Sweden
| | - Clive Loveday
- ICVC Charity Laboratories, 3d floor, Apollo Centre Desborough Road High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, HP11 2QW, UK
| | | | - I Maljkovic-Berry
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cellbiology, Karolinska Institutet, SE 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
- Dept of Virology, Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, SE-171 82 Solna, Sweden
| | | | - Claus Nielsen
- Statens Serum Institut Copenhagen, Retrovirus Laboratory, department of virology, building 87, Division of Diagnostic Microbiology 5, Artillerivej 2300 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Eline LM Op de Coul
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control (Epidemiology & Surveillance), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Vidar Ormaasen
- Ullevaal University Hospital, Department of Infectious Diseases Kirkeveien 166, N-0407 Oslo, Norway
| | - Luc Perrin
- Laboratory of Virology, Geneva University Hospital and University of Geneva Medical School, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Lidia Ruiz
- IrsiCaixa Foundation, Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Ctra. de Canyet s/n, 08916 Badalona (Barcelona), Spain
| | - Mika O Salminen
- National Public Health Institute, HIV laboratory and department of infectious disease epidemiology, Mannerheimintie 166, FIN-00300 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jean-Claude Schmit
- Centre Hospitalier de Luxembourg, Retrovirology Laboratory, National service of Infectious Diseases, 4 Rue Barblé, L-1210, Luxembourg
| | - Rob Schuurman
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Virology, G04.614, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | | | - J Stanczak
- Hospital for Infectious Diseases, Center for Diagnosis & Therapy Warsaw 37, Wolska Str. 01-201 Warszawa, Poland
| | - Maja Stanojevic
- University of Belgrade School of Medicine, Institute of Microbiology and Immunology Virology Department, Dr Subotica 1, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Daniel Struck
- Centre Hospitalier de Luxembourg, Retrovirology Laboratory, National service of Infectious Diseases, 4 Rue Barblé, L-1210, Luxembourg
| | - Kristel Van Laethem
- Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Rega Institute for Medical research, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
| | - M Violin
- University of Milano, Institute of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122 Milano, Italy
| | - Sabine Yerly
- Laboratory of Virology, Geneva University Hospital and University of Geneva Medical School, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maurizio Zazzi
- Section of Microbiology, Department of Molecular Biology, University of Siena, Italy
| | - Charles A Boucher
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Virology, G04.614, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Department of Virology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, Postbus 2040 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Anne-Mieke Vandamme
- Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Rega Institute for Medical research, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
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