Evolutionary trajectories of two distinct avian influenza epidemics: Parallelisms and divergences

Combined Phylogeographic Analyses and Epidemiologic Contact Tracing to Characterize Atypically Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H3N1) Epidemic, Belgium, 2019

The high economic impact and zoonotic potential of avian influenza call for detailed investigations of dispersal dynamics of epidemics. We integrated phylogeographic and epidemiologic analyses to investigate the dynamics of a low pathogenicity avian influenza (H3N1) epidemic that occurred in Belgium during 2019. Virus genomes from 104 clinical samples originating from 85% of affected farms were sequenced. A spatially explicit phylogeographic analysis confirmed a dominating northeast to southwest dispersal direction and a long-distance dispersal event linked to direct live animal transportation between farms. Spatiotemporal clustering, transport, and social contacts strongly correlated with the phylogeographic pattern of the epidemic. We detected only a limited association between wind direction and direction of viral lineage dispersal. Our results highlight the multifactorial nature of avian influenza epidemics and illustrate the use of genomic analyses of virus dispersal to complement epidemiologic and environmental data, improve knowledge of avian influenza epidemiologic dynamics, and enhance control strategies.

Heterogeneity of Early Host Response to Infection with Four Low-Pathogenic H7 Viruses with a Different Evolutionary History in the Field

Once low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) of the H5 and H7 subtypes from wild birds enter into poultry species, there is the possibility of them mutating into highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs), resulting in severe epizootics with up to 100% mortality. This mutation from a LPAIV to HPAIV strain is the main cause of an AIV's major economic impact on poultry production. Although AIVs are inextricably linked to their hosts in their evolutionary history, the contribution of host-related factors in the emergence of HPAI viruses has only been marginally explored so far. In this study, transcriptomic sequencing of tracheal tissue from chickens infected with four distinct LP H7 viruses, characterized by a different history of pathogenicity evolution in the field, was implemented. Despite the inoculation of a normalized infectious dose of viruses belonging to the same subtype (H7) and pathotype (LPAI), the use of animals of the same age, sex and species as well as the identification of a comparable viral load in the target samples, the analyses revealed a heterogeneity in the gene expression profile in response to infection with each of the H7 viruses administered.

Parallel evolution in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses

Parallel molecular evolution and adaptation are important phenomena commonly observed in viruses. Here, we exploit parallel molecular evolution to understand virulence evolution in avian influenza viruses (AIV). Highly-pathogenic AIVs evolve independently from low-pathogenic ancestors via acquisition of polybasic cleavage sites. Why some AIV lineages but not others evolve in this way is unknown. We hypothesise that the parallel emergence of highly-pathogenic AIV may be facilitated by permissive or compensatory mutations occurring across the viral genome. We combine phylogenetic, statistical and structural approaches to discover parallel mutations in AIV genomes associated with the highly-pathogenic phenotype. Parallel mutations were screened using a statistical test of mutation-phenotype association and further evaluated in the contexts of positive selection and protein structure. Our resulting mutational panel may help to reveal new links between virulence evolution and other traits, and raises the possibility of predicting aspects of AIV evolution.

Modelling the impact of biosecurity practices on the risk of high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian commercial chicken farms

As of 2018, Australia has experienced seven outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry since 1976, all of which involved chickens. There is concern that increases in free-range farming could heighten HPAI outbreak risk due to the potential for greater contact between chickens and wild birds that are known to carry low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). We use mathematical models to assess the effect of a shift to free-range farming on the risk of HPAI outbreaks of H5 or H7 in the Australian commercial chicken industry, and the potential for intervention strategies to reduce this risk. We find that a shift of 25% of conventional indoor farms to free-range farming practices would result in a 6-7% increase in the risk of a HPAI outbreak. Current practices to treat water are highly effective, reducing the risk of outbreaks by 25-28% compared to no water treatment. Halving wild bird presence in feed storage areas could reduce risk by 16-19% while halving wild bird access of potential bridge-species to sheds could reduce outbreak risk by 23-25%, and relatively small improvements in biosecurity measures could entirely compensate for increased risks due to the increasing proportion of free-range farms in the industry. The short production cycle and cleaning practices for chicken meat sheds considerably reduce the risk that an introduced low pathogenic avian influenza virus is maintained in the flock until it is detected as HPAI through increased mortality of chickens. These findings help explain HPAI outbreak history in Australia and suggest practical changes in biosecurity practices that could reduce the risk of future outbreaks.

Geographical and Historical Patterns in the Emergences of Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 and H7 Viruses in Poultry

Over the years, the emergence of novel H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) has been taking place through two main mechanisms: first, the conversion of a low pathogenic into a highly pathogenic virus, and second, the reassortment between different genetic segments of low and highly pathogenic viruses already in circulation. We investigated and summarized the literature on emerging HPAI H5 and H7 viruses with the aim of building a spatio-temporal database of all these recorded conversions and reassortments events. We subsequently mapped the spatio-temporal distribution of known emergence events, as well as the species and production systems that they were associated with, the aim being to establish their main characteristics. From 1959 onwards, we identified a total of 39 independent H7 and H5 LPAI to HPAI conversion events. All but two of these events were reported in commercial poultry production systems, and a majority of these events took place in high-income countries. In contrast, a total of 127 reassortments have been reported from 1983 to 2015, which predominantly took place in countries with poultry production systems transitioning from backyard to intensive production systems. Those systems are characterized by several co-circulating viruses, multiple host species, regular contact points in live bird markets, limited biosecurity within value chains, and frequent vaccination campaigns that impose selection pressures for emergence of novel reassortants. We conclude that novel HPAI emergences by these two mechanisms occur in different ecological niches, with different viral, environmental and host associated factors, which has implications in early detection and management and mitigation of the risk of emergence of novel HPAI viruses.

Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms

This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5 × 10^-4; 5% and 95%, 5.7 × 10^-4-0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6 × 10^-4 and 1.6 × 10^-4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7 × 10^-4, 2.0 × 10^-4, and 1.9 × 10^-4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations.

Unexpected Interfarm Transmission Dynamics during a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Epidemic

Next-generation sequencing technology is now being increasingly applied to study the within- and between-host population dynamics of viruses. However, information on avian influenza virus evolution and transmission during a naturally occurring epidemic is still limited. Here, we use deep-sequencing data obtained from clinical samples collected from five industrial holdings and a backyard farm infected during the 2013 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N7 epidemic in Italy to unravel (i) the epidemic virus population diversity, (ii) the evolution of virus pathogenicity, and (iii) the pathways of viral transmission between different holdings and sheds. We show a high level of genetic diversity of the HPAI H7N7 viruses within a single farm as a consequence of separate bottlenecks and founder effects. In particular, we identified the cocirculation in the index case of two viral strains showing a different insertion at the hemagglutinin cleavage site, as well as nine nucleotide differences at the consensus level and 92 minority variants. To assess interfarm transmission, we combined epidemiological and genetic data and identified the index case as the major source of the virus, suggesting the spread of different viral haplotypes from the index farm to the other industrial holdings, probably at different time points. Our results revealed interfarm transmission dynamics that the epidemiological data alone could not unravel and demonstrated that delay in the disease detection and stamping out was the major cause of the emergence and the spread of the HPAI strain.

IMPORTANCE

The within- and between-host evolutionary dynamics of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain during a naturally occurring epidemic is currently poorly understood. Here, we perform for the first time an in-depth sequence analysis of all the samples collected during a HPAI epidemic and demonstrate the importance to complement outbreak investigations with genetic data to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of the viruses and to evaluate the within- and between-farm genetic diversity of the viral population. We show that the evolutionary transition from the low pathogenic form to the highly pathogenic form occurred within the first infected flock, where we identified haplotypes with hemagglutinin cleavage site of different lengths. We also identify the index case as the major source of virus, indicating that prompt application of depopulation measures is essential to limit virus spread to other farms.

Prevalence of the C-terminal truncations of NS1 in avian influenza A viruses and effect on virulence and replication of a highly pathogenic H7N1 virus in chickens

Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza viruses (AIV) evolve from low pathogenic (LP) precursors after circulation in poultry by reassortment and/or single mutations in different gene segments including that encoding NS1. The carboxyl terminal end (CTE) of NS1 exhibits deletions between amino acid 202 and 230 with still unknown impact on virulence of AIV in chickens. In this study, NS1 protein sequences of all AIV subtypes in birds from 1902 to 2015 were analyzed to study the prevalence and distribution of CTE truncation (ΔCTE). Thirteen different ΔCTE forms were observed in NS1 proteins from 11 HA and 8 NA subtypes with high prevalences in H9, H7, H6 and H10 and N9, N2, N6 and N1 subtypes particularly in chickens and minor poultry species. With 88% NS217 lacking amino acids 218-230 was the most common ΔCTE form followed by NS224 (3.6%). NS217 was found in 10 and 8 different HA and NA subtypes, respectively, whereas NS224 was detected exclusively in the Italian HPAIV H7N1 suggesting relevance for virulence. To test this assumption, 3 recombinant HPAIV H7N1 were constructed carrying wild-type HP NS1 (Hp-NS224), NS1 with extended CTE (Hp-NS230) or NS1 from LPAIV H7N1 (Hp-NSLp), and tested in-vitro and in-vivo. Extension of CTE in Hp NS1 significantly decreased virus replication in chicken embryo kidney cells. Truncation in the NS1 decreased the tropism of Hp-NS224 to the endothelium, central nervous system and respiratory tract epithelium without significant difference in virulence in chickens. This study described the variable forms of ΔCTE in NS1 and indicated that CTE is not an essential virulence determinant particularly for the Italian HPAIV H7N1 but may be a host-adaptation marker required for efficient virus replication.