Multilayer Neural Network with Multi-Valued Neurons in time series forecasting of oil production

Forecasting Oil Production Flowrate Based on an Improved Backpropagation High-Order Neural Network with Empirical Mode Decomposition

Developing a forecasting model for oilfield well production plays a significant role in managing mature oilfields as it can help to identify production loss earlier. It is very common that mature fields need more frequent production measurements to detect declining production. This study proposes a machine learning system based on a hybrid empirical mode decomposition backpropagation higher-order neural network (EMD-BP-HONN) for oilfields with less frequent measurement. With the individual well characteristic of stationary and non-stationary data, it creates a unique challenge. By utilizing historical well production measurement as a time series feature and then decomposing it using empirical mode decomposition, it generates a simpler pattern to be learned by the model. In this paper, various algorithms were deployed as a benchmark, and the proposed method was eventually completed to forecast well production. With proper feature engineering, it shows that the proposed method can be a potentially effective method to improve forecasting obtained by the traditional method.

Modeling and forecasting United States oil production along with the social cost of carbon: conventional and unconventional oil

Purpose

The USA is one of the largest oil producers in the world. For this purpose, the authors model and predict the US conventional and unconventional oil production during the period 2000–2030.

Design/methodology/approach

In this research, the system dynamics (SD) model has been used. In this model, economic, technical, geopolitical, learning-by-doing and environmental (social costs of carbon) issues are considered.

Findings

The results of the simulation, after successfully passing the validation test, show that the US unconventional oil production rate under the optimistic scenario (high oil prices) in 2030 is about 12.62 million barrels/day (mb/day), under the medium oil price scenario is about 11.4 mb/day and under the pessimistic scenario (low oil price) is about 10.18 mb/day. The results of US conventional oil production forecasting under these three scenarios (high, medium and low oil prices) show oil production of 4.62, 4.26 and 3.91 mb/day, respectively.

Originality/value

The contribution of this study is important in several respects: First, by modeling SD that technical, economic, proven reserves and technology factors are considered, this paper models US conventional and unconventional oil production separately. In this modeling, nonlinear relationships and feedback loops are presented to better understand the relationships between variables. Second, given the importance of environmental issues, the modeling of social costs of CO2 emissions per barrel of oil is also presented and considered as a part of oil production costs. Third, conventional and unconventional US oil production by 2030 is forecast separately, the results of this study could help policymakers to develop unconventional oil and plan for energy self-sufficiency.

Hybrid online model based multi seasonal decompose for short-term electricity load forecasting using ARIMA and online RNN

Short-term electricity load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in operating the power system of a nation. A challenging problem in STLF is to deal with real-time data. This paper aims to address the problem using a hybrid online model. Online learning methods are becoming essential in STLF because load data often show complex seasonality (daily, weekly, annual) and changing patterns. Online models such as Online AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (Online ARIMA) and Online Recurrent neural network (Online RNN) can modify their parameters on the fly to adapt to the changes of real-time data. However, Online RNN alone cannot handle seasonality directly and ARIMA can only handle a single seasonal pattern (Seasonal ARIMA). In this study, we propose a hybrid online model that combines Online ARIMA, Online RNN, and Multi-seasonal decomposition to forecast real-time time series with multiple seasonal patterns. First, we decompose the original time series into three components: trend, seasonality, and residual. The seasonal patterns are modeled using Fourier series. This approach is flexible, allowing us to incorporate multiple periods. For trend and residual components, we employ Online ARIMA and Online RNN respectively to obtain the predictions. We use hourly load data of Vietnam and daily load data of Australia as case studies to verify our proposed model. The experimental results show that our model has better performance than single online models. The proposed model is robust and can be applied in many other fields with real-time time series.

Learning the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Heterogeneous Catalysis

We describe the use of artificial intelligence techniques in heterogeneous catalysis. This description is intended to give readers some clues for the use of these techniques in their research or industrial processes related to hydrodesulfurization. Since the description corresponds to supervised learning, first of all, we give a brief introduction to this type of learning, emphasizing the variables X and Y that define it. For each description, there is a particular emphasis on highlighting these variables. This emphasis will help define them when one works on a new application. The descriptions that we present relate to the construction of learning machines that infer adsorption energies, surface areas, adsorption isotherms of nanoporous materials, novel catalysts, and the sulfur content after hydrodesulfurization. These learning machines can predict adsorption energies with mean absolute errors of 0.15 eV for a diverse chemical space. They predict more precise surface areas of porous materials than the BET technique and can calculate their isotherms much faster than the Monte Carlo method. These machines can also predict new catalysts by learning from the catalytic behavior of materials generated through atomic substitutions. When the machines learn from the variables associated with a hydrodesulfurization process, they can predict the sulfur content in the final product.

Neural Networks as Classification Mechanisms of Complex Human Activities

Within this paper, we present two neural nets for view-independent complex human activity recognition (HAR) from video frames. For our study here, we reduce the number of frames produced by a video sequence given that we can identify activities from a sparsely sampled sequence of body poses, and, at the same time, we are able to reduce the processing complexity and response while hardly affecting the accuracy, precision, and recall. To do so, we use a formal framework to ensure the quality of data collection and data preprocessing. We utilize neural networks for the classification of single and complex body activities. More specifically, we consider the sequence of body poses as a time-series problem given that they can provide state-of-the-art results on challenging recognition tasks with little data engineering. Deep Learning in the form of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Neural Network (LSTM), and a one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network Long Short-Term Memory model (CNN-LSTM) are used as benchmarks to classify the activity.