Chow-Liu trees are sufficient predictive models for reproducing key features of functional networks of periictal EEG time-series

Seizure prediction - ready for a new era

Epilepsy is a common disorder characterized by recurrent seizures. An overwhelming majority of people with epilepsy regard the unpredictability of seizures as a major issue. More than 30 years of international effort have been devoted to the prediction of seizures, aiming to remove the burden of unpredictability and to couple novel, time-specific treatment to seizure prediction technology. A highly influential review published in 2007 concluded that insufficient evidence indicated that seizures could be predicted. Since then, several advances have been made, including successful prospective seizure prediction using intracranial EEG in a small number of people in a trial of a real-time seizure prediction device. In this Review, we examine advances in the field, including EEG databases, seizure prediction competitions, the prospective trial mentioned and advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of seizures. We argue that these advances, together with statistical evaluations, set the stage for a resurgence in efforts towards the development of seizure prediction methodologies. We propose new avenues of investigation involving a synergy between mechanisms, models, data, devices and algorithms and refine the existing guidelines for the development of seizure prediction technology to instigate development of a solution that removes the burden of the unpredictability of seizures.

Predictive modeling of EEG time series for evaluating surgery targets in epilepsy patients

During the last 20 years, predictive modeling in epilepsy research has largely been concerned with the prediction of seizure events, whereas the inference of effective brain targets for resective surgery has received surprisingly little attention. In this exploratory pilot study, we describe a distributional clustering framework for the modeling of multivariate time series and use it to predict the effects of brain surgery in epilepsy patients. By analyzing the intracranial EEG, we demonstrate how patients who became seizure free after surgery are clearly distinguished from those who did not. More specifically, for 5 out of 7 patients who obtained seizure freedom (= Engel class I) our method predicts the specific collection of brain areas that got actually resected during surgery to yield a markedly lower posterior probability for the seizure related clusters, when compared to the resection of random or empty collections. Conversely, for 4 out of 5 Engel class III/IV patients who still suffer from postsurgical seizures, performance of the actually resected collection is not significantly better than performances displayed by random or empty collections. As the number of possible collections ranges into billions and more, this is a substantial contribution to a problem that today is still solved by visual EEG inspection. Apart from epilepsy research, our clustering methodology is also of general interest for the analysis of multivariate time series and as a generative model for temporally evolving functional networks in the neurosciences and beyond. Hum Brain Mapp 38:2509-2531, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

EEG synchronization measures are early outcome predictors in comatose patients after cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVE

Outcome prognostication in comatose patients after cardiac arrest (CA) remains a major challenge. Here we investigated the prognostic value of combinations of linear and non-linear bivariate EEG synchronization measures.

METHODS

94 comatose patients with EEG within 24h after CA were included. Clinical outcome was assessed at 3months using the Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). EEG synchronization between the left and right parasagittal, and between the frontal and parietal brain regions was assessed with 4 different quantitative measures (delta power asymmetry, cross-correlation, mutual information, and transfer entropy). 2/3 of patients were used to assess the predictive power of all possible combinations of these eight features (4 measures×2 directions) using cross-validation. The predictive power of the best combination was tested on the remaining 1/3 of patients.

RESULTS

The best combination for prognostication consisted of 4 of the 8 features, and contained linear and non-linear measures. Predictive power for poor outcome (CPC 3-5), measured with the area under the ROC curve, was 0.84 during cross-validation, and 0.81 on the test set. At specificity of 1.0 the sensitivity was 0.54, and the accuracy 0.81.

CONCLUSION

Combinations of EEG synchronization measures can contribute to early prognostication after CA. In particular, combining linear and non-linear measures is important for good predictive power.

SIGNIFICANCE

Quantitative methods might increase the prognostic yield of currently used multi-modal approaches.

Ictal time-irreversible intracranial EEG signals as markers of the epileptogenic zone

OBJECTIVE

To show that time-irreversible EEG signals recorded with intracranial electrodes during seizures can serve as markers of the epileptogenic zone.

METHODS

We use the recently developed method of mapping time series into directed horizontal graphs (dHVG). Each node of the dHVG represents a time point in the original intracranial EEG (iEEG) signal. Statistically significant differences between the distributions of the nodes' number of input and output connections are used to detect time-irreversible iEEG signals.

RESULTS

In 31 of 32 seizure recordings we found time-irreversible iEEG signals. The maximally time-irreversible signals always occurred during seizures, with highest probability in the middle of the first seizure half. These signals spanned a large range of frequencies and amplitudes but were all characterized by saw-tooth like shaped components. Brain regions removed from patients who became post-surgically seizure-free generated significantly larger time-irreversibilities than regions removed from patients who still had seizures after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results corroborate that ictal time-irreversible iEEG signals can indeed serve as markers of the epileptogenic zone and can be efficiently detected and quantified in a time-resolved manner by dHVG based methods.

SIGNIFICANCE

Ictal time-irreversible EEG signals can help to improve pre-surgical evaluation in patients suffering from pharmaco-resistant epilepsies.