Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence

Effects of accessible information amount and judgment times on human diagnostic performance of nuclear power plant faults

Information is key to the process of diagnosis, so it is necessary to understand how information amount may influence human performance. The current study investigated this issue through an experiment where participants diagnosed an accident in a simulated nuclear power plant. The amount of accessible information and the times of making judgments were manipulated. The results showed that increasing the amount of accessible information led the participants to seek more and think shallower, and thus decreased diagnostic accuracies, whereas no significant effects were found for multiple judgement times. The authors argue that the disadvantages of more accessible information could be attributed not simply to 'information overload', but partly to the diagnosticians' unwise choice of information processing strategies. The findings imply that system designers should restrain the ever-growing amount of information while users should make more efficient use of information rather than take in more.Practitioner summary: Current research on diagnosis by humans was mostly limited to outcome performance. This study empirically investigated factors influencing its detailed process. The results showed that increasing accessible information amount impaired both process and outcome performances.

Salient knowledge that others are also evaluating reduces judgment extremity

As companies increasingly conduct marketing research online (e.g., through social networking sites or their brand community platforms), the knowledge that others are also filling out the same surveys becomes increasingly salient to respondents. This research examines how the salience of this knowledge influences consumer judgments. Two important characteristics of our research paradigm are especially relevant to digital contexts: (1) judgements made by the consumers are neither observable nor subject to others' disapproval; and (2) consensus is not observable or verifiable. Nevertheless, in six main studies and one auxiliary study (Web Appendix), we found that high knowledge salience of others also evaluating reduced judgment extremity. Judgment extremity is quantified by the degree or strength of an evaluation or numeric estimate about a judgment target. This effect was driven by consumers' tendency to predict a moderate consensus and to conform to this perception. Implications for marketing research and crowdsourcing are discussed.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11747-021-00807-w.

Effect of automation transparency in the management of multiple unmanned vehicles

Automated decision aids can undoubtedly benefit system performance, but have the potential to provide incorrect advice, creating the possibility for automation disuse or misuse. This paper examined the extent to which increased automation transparency could improve the accuracy of automation use in a simulation of unmanned vehicle control. Participants were required to assign the best unmanned vehicle to complete missions. An automated recommender system provided advice but was not always reliable. Three levels of automation transparency were manipulated between-participants. Providing transparency regarding the reasoning underlying automated recommendations improved the accuracy of automation use, with no cost to decision time or subjective workload. Higher transparency in the form of projected decision outcome visualizations led to faster decisions, but less accurate automation use and an automation bias. Implications for the design of transparent interfaces to improve human-autonomy teaming outcomes in time-pressured environments are discussed.

Insights for Sustainability of Smartphone Business: Understanding Customer Switching Behavior in Smartphone Services

Competition in smartphone market has been fierce, and customers’ switching has become a primary concern for the success of smartphone businesses. Nonetheless, research on customer switching behavior regarding smartphones is still under investigation. The purpose of this study is to examine how social factors affect users’ smartphone switching intention and how customer rational and emotional factors moderate the customers’ switching behavioral intention. In an attempt to understand the switching behavior of smartphone users, this study develops and tests a model drawn from social factors (e.g., media and peer influence), customer rational factors (e.g., switching experience and confidence in decision making), and customer emotional factors (e.g., anticipated regret and alternative attractiveness). The model is tested with data collected from 302 smartphone users. The results of structural equation modeling analysis demonstrate that, when customers make switching decision, both media influence and peer influence affect behavioral switching intention. Further, this study also revealed that customer rational and emotional factors moderate the effects of media influence and peer influence toward customers’ switching intention. Overall, this study enhances the omnidirectional understanding of the switching behavior of smartphone users and can help smartphone companies in fierce competition to lead to sustainable growth.

The impacts of evaluation duration and product types on review extremity

Purpose

Extreme online reviews can have great impacts on consumers’ purchase decisions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate when users are more likely to provide extreme ratings. The study draws inference from attitude certainty theory and proposes that review extremity is influenced by the interaction of evaluation duration and product/service types: for hedonic products/services, shorter evaluation duration can foster attitude certainty, leading to higher review extremity; in contrast, for utilitarian products/services, longer evaluation duration can increase attitude certainty, resulting in more extreme reviews.

Design/methodology/approach

Three studies were conducted to test the hypotheses: Study 1 is an empirical analysis of 3,000 reviews from an online retailing website; Studies 2 and 3 are two between-subject experiments.

Findings

Results from three studies confirm the hypotheses. Study 1 provides preliminary evidence on how review extremity varies in evaluations of different durations and product/service types. Results from Studies 2 and 3 show that for hedonic products/services, the shorter the evaluation duration, the more likely users are to give extreme ratings; however, for utilitarian products/service, the longer the evaluation duration, the more likely users are to give extreme reviews; and attitude certainty plays a mediating role between evaluation duration and review extremity.

Originality/value

Findings from this study provide understandings on when a fast rather than a slow evaluation can lead to more extreme reviews. The results also highlight the role of users’ attitude certainty in the underlying mechanism.

The in-out effect: examining the role of perceptual fluency in the preference for words with inward-wandering consonantal articulation

Words whose consonantal articulation spots wander inward, simulating ingestion movements, are preferred to words featuring the opposite consonantal articulation direction, that is, resembling expectoration movements. The underlying mechanism of this so-called in-out effect is far from settled. Contrary to the original explanation proposing an oral approach-avoidance mechanism, recent evidence has been used to support an oral motor-fluency mechanism, suggesting that inward words are preferred because they may be more common and/or easier to pronounce. Across six experiments (n = 1123), we examined the impact of different fluency sources in the emergence of the in-out effect. The preference for inward-wandering words persisted both with classical font type and figure-ground contrast fluency manipulations, and no systematic additive effects were observed. The in-out effect was also replicated for the first time with a between-participant design. These results suggest that the in-out effect may be permeable to fluency manipulations, but it is not dependent upon a plain fluency mechanism.

Effects of Trust, Self-Confidence, and Feedback on the Use of Decision Automation

Operators often fail to rely sufficiently on alarm systems. This results in a joint human-machine (JHM) sensitivity below the one of the alarm system. The 'confidence vs. trust hypothesis' assumes the use of the system depends on the weighting of both values. In case of higher confidence, the task is performed manually, if trust is higher, the user relies on the system. Thus, insufficient reliance may be due to operators' overconfidence in their own abilities and/or insufficient trust in the decision automation, but could be mitigated by providing feedback. That was investigated within a signal detection task, supported by a system with either higher sensitivity (HSS) or lower sensitivity (LSS) than the human, while being provided with feedback or not. We expected disuse of the LSS and insufficiently reliance on the HSS, in the condition without feedback. The feedback was expected to increase reliance on the HSS through an increase in trust and/or decreases in confidence, and thus, improve performance. Hypotheses were partly supported. Confidence in manual performance was similar to trust in the HSS even though humans' sensitivity was significantly lower than systems' sensitivity. While confidence had not effect on reliance or JHM sensitivity, trust was found to be positively related with both. We found disuse of the HSS, that could be improved through feedback, increasing also trust and JHM sensitivity. However, contrary to 'confidence vs. trust' expectations, participants were also found to make use of the LSS. This misuse could not be reduced by feedback. Results indicate the use of feedback being beneficial for the overall performance (with HSS only). Findings do not support the idea that misuse or disuse of the system may result from comparison of confidence and trust. We suppose it may rather be the product of users' wrong strategy of function allocation, based on the underlying idea of team work in combination with missing assignment of responsibility. We discuss this alternative explanation.

Certainty Is Primarily Determined by Past Performance During Concept Learning

Prior research has yielded mixed findings on whether learners’ certainty reflects veridical probabilities from observed evidence. We compared predictions from an idealized model of learning to humans’ subjective reports of certainty during a Boolean concept-learning task in order to examine subjective certainty over the course of abstract, logical concept learning. Our analysis evaluated theoretically motivated potential predictors of certainty to determine how well each predicted participants’ subjective reports of certainty. Regression analyses that controlled for individual differences demonstrated that despite learning curves tracking the ideal learning models, reported certainty was best explained by performance rather than measures derived from a learning model. In particular, participants’ confidence was driven primarily by how well they observed themselves doing, not by idealized statistical inferences made from the data they observed.

The Dark Side of Information Proliferation

There are well-understood psychological limits on our capacity to process information. As information proliferation-the consumption and sharing of information-increases through social media and other communications technology, these limits create an attentional bottleneck, favoring information that is more likely to be searched for, attended to, comprehended, encoded, and later reproduced. In information-rich environments, this bottleneck influences the evolution of information via four forces of cognitive selection, selecting for information that is belief-consistent, negative, social, and predictive. Selection for belief-consistent information leads balanced information to support increasingly polarized views. Selection for negative information amplifies information about downside risks and crowds out potential benefits. Selection for social information drives herding, impairs objective assessments, and reduces exploration for solutions to hard problems. Selection for predictive patterns drives overfitting, the replication crisis, and risk seeking. This article summarizes the negative implications of these forces of cognitive selection and presents eight warnings that represent severe pitfalls for the naive "informavore," accelerating extremism, hysteria, herding, and the proliferation of misinformation.

Eye-tracking evidence shows that non-fit messaging impacts attention, attitudes and choice

When patients have strong initial attitudes about a medical intervention, they might not be open to learning new information when choosing whether or not to receive the intervention. We aim to show that non-fit messaging (messages framed in a manner that is incongruent with recipients' motivational orientation) can increase attention to the message content, thereby de-intensifying an initial attitude bias and reducing the influence of this bias on choice. In this study, 196 students received information about the pros and cons of a vaccine, framed in either a fit or non-fit manner with their motivational orientation. The results show that when information was presented in a non-fit (vs. fit) manner, the strength of participants' initial attitude was reduced. An eye-tracking procedure indicated that participants read information more thoroughly (measured by the average length of fixation time while reading) in the non-fit condition versus fit condition. This average time of fixation mediated the effect of message framing on the strength of people's attitudes. A reduction in attitude was associated with participants' ability to recall the given information correctly and make a choice consistent with the provided information. Non-fit messaging increases individuals' willingness to process information when individuals' pre-existing attitude biases might otherwise cause them to make uninformed decisions.

Evaluation of Online Learning Modules for Improving Physical Activity Counseling Skills, Practices, and Knowledge of Oncology Nurses

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES

To examine the effectiveness of online learning modules for improving physical activity counseling practices among oncology nurses. 
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DESIGN

Randomized, controlled trial.
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SETTING

Online.
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SAMPLE

54 oncology nurses.
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METHODS

Oncology nurses were randomly assigned to the learning modules group or control group. The learning modules group completed six online learning modules and quizzes focused on physical activity for cancer survivors, general physical activity principles, and motivational interviewing.
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MAIN RESEARCH VARIABLES

Percentage of cancer survivors counseled, self-efficacy for physical activity counseling, knowledge of physical activity, and perceived barriers and benefits of physical activity counseling.
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FINDINGS

Analyses of covariance revealed no significant difference between the learning modules and control groups in the percentage of cancer survivors that oncology nurses counseled. Significant differences were found in self-efficacy for physical activity counseling and perceived barriers to physical activity counseling at postintervention. 
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CONCLUSIONS

The online learning intervention tested in this study improved some parameters of physical activity counseling but did not increase the percentage of cancer survivors that oncology nurses counseled. Additional pilot work is needed to refine the intervention.
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IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING

This study suggests the potential utility of an evidence-based online learning strategy for oncology nurses that includes information on physical activity and its benefits in cancer survivorship. The findings offer a framework on how to implement physical activity counseling skills in oncology nursing practice.

Temporal Elements in Career Selection Decisions: An Archival Study Investigating Career Decisions in Medicine

Time is a ubiquitous but often omitted variable in career selection decisions. This study investigates the impact of temporal elements on career selection decisions, thus advancing our understanding of both career decision making and the impact of timing on decision making. We investigate the influence of timing and duration of experience with career options on career selection decisions in an archival study using medical residents’ rotation schedules. We also investigate factors that mitigate the influence of timing on career selection decisions by examining the interaction of timing with the duration of experience and the diversity of options that an individual experiences. Conditional logit results indicate that decisions often based on career and individual attributes are significantly influenced by the timing and duration of options even when controlling for option attributes. Additionally, significant interactions between timing and diversity of experience and timing and duration of experience revealed boundary conditions for timing. Individuals were more likely to select later-appearing career options when they appeared for a greater duration or when they experienced a greater diversity of options in their schedule. Results illustrate that schedules over which individuals have no control can influence consequential decisions.

Sight over sound in the judgment of music performance

Social judgments are made on the basis of both visual and auditory information, with consequential implications for our decisions. To examine the impact of visual information on expert judgment and its predictive validity for performance outcomes, this set of seven experiments in the domain of music offers a conservative test of the relative influence of vision versus audition. People consistently report that sound is the most important source of information in evaluating performance in music. However, the findings demonstrate that people actually depend primarily on visual information when making judgments about music performance. People reliably select the actual winners of live music competitions based on silent video recordings, but neither musical novices nor professional musicians were able to identify the winners based on sound recordings or recordings with both video and sound. The results highlight our natural, automatic, and nonconscious dependence on visual cues. The dominance of visual information emerges to the degree that it is overweighted relative to auditory information, even when sound is consciously valued as the core domain content.

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4-step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta-analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)-a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4-step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3-point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]).