Multisectoral cost analysis of a human and livestock anthrax outbreak in Songwe Region, Tanzania (December 2018-January 2019), using a novel Outbreak Costing Tool

Strengthening anthrax outbreak response and preparedness: simulation and stakeholder education in Namisindwa district, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is a zoonotic disease caused by Bacillus anthracis that poses a significant threat to both human health and livestock. Effective preparedness and response to anthrax outbreak at the district level is essential to mitigate the devastating impact of the disease to humans and animals. The current diseaae surveillance in animals and humans uses two different infrastructure systems with online platform supported by established diagnostic facilities. The differences in surveillance systems affect timely outbreak response especially for zoonotic diseases like anthrax. We therefore aimed to assess the feasibility of implementing a simulation exercise for a potential anthrax outbreak in a local government setting and to raise the suspicion index of different district stakeholders for a potential anthrax outbreak in Namisindwa District, Uganda.

METHODS

We conducted a field-based simulation exercise and a health education intervention using quantitative data collection methods. The study participants mainly members of the District Taskforce (DTF) were purposively selected given their role(s) in disease surveillance and response at the sub-national level. We combined 26 variables (all dichotomized) assessing knowledge on anthrax and knowledge on appropriate outbreak response measures into an additive composite index. We then dichotomized overall score based on the 80% blooms cutoff i.e. we considered those scoring at least 80% to have high knowledge, otherwise low. We then assessed the factors associated with knowledge using binary logistic regression with time as a proxy for the intervention effect. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% Confidence intervals (95%CI) have been reported.

RESULTS

The overall district readiness score was 35.0% (24/69) and was deficient in the following domains: coordination and resource mobilization (5/16), surveillance (5/11), laboratory capacity (3/10), case management (4/7), risk communications (4/12), and control measures (4/13). The overall community readiness score was 7 out of 32 (22.0%). We noted poor scores of readiness in all domains except for case management (2/2). The knowledge training did not have an effect on the overall readiness score, but improved specific domains such as control measures. Instead tertiary education was the only independent predictor of higher knowledge on anthrax and how to respond to it (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.07-2.31). Training did not have a significant association with overall knowledge improvement but had an effect on several individual knowledge aspects.

CONCLUSION

We found that the district's preparedness to respond to a potential anthrax outbreak was inadequate, especially in coordination and mobilisation, surveillance, case management, risk communication and control measures. The health education training intervention showed increased knowledge levels compared to the pre-test and post-test an indicator that the health education sessions could increase the index of suspicion. The low preparedness underscores the urgency to strengthen anthrax preparedness in the district and could have implications for other districts. We deduce that trainings of a similar nature conducted regularly and extensively would have better effects. This study's insights are valuable for improving anthrax readiness and safeguarding public and animal health in similar settings.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella in Nigeria: do outcomes of 'multisectoral' surveillance, treatment and control justify the intervention costs?

Non-typhoidal salmonellosis (NTS) is significant and an economic burden in Nigeria. To determine whether investment in NTS control is economically justifiable, Outbreak Costing Tool (OCT) was used to estimate the robust funding of public and animal health systems for epidemio-surveillance and control of multisectoral NTS outbreaks in Nigeria. Health, production, and economic data were collected and used to populate the tool for evaluation. The multisectoral NTS burden for the year 2020 in Nigeria was US$ 930,887,379.00. Approximately 4,835 technical officers, and 3,700 non-technical staff (n = 8,535) were needed with an investment of >2.2 million work hours. The investment cost for NTS control was US$ 53,854,660.87. The non-labour-related cost was 89.21% of the total intervention costs. The overall intervention's investment was 374.15% of the estimated national and subnational systems' annual budget for diarrhoeal diseases, and the outbreak response period attracted the highest costs (53%) of the total intervention. In conclusion, intervention against NTS was beneficial (benefit - cost ratio: 17.29), hence justifying the need for multisectoral surveillance-response against NTS in Nigeria. Complex sectoral silos must give way to coordinated collaborations to optimize benefits; and over-centralization of health interventions' associated delays must be removed through decentralized sub-national-focused framework that empowers rapid investigation, response, control, data collection, and analyses. It should assist anticipatory planning, and outbreak investigation and reduce critical response time. Anticipatory planning tools, when applied pre-emptively, can benefit budgeting, identify gaps, and assist in the delivery of cost-saving and effective measures against infectious disease.

Development of LIME-NZ: a generic tool for prompt estimation of economic impacts of disease for New Zealand livestock

AIMS

To develop a simple and robust generic tool to measure the impacts of livestock diseases on New Zealand dairy, beef and sheep farms using enterprise gross margin models.

METHODS

The most recent (2018-2020) livestock production benchmarking data was extracted from industry-led economic surveys. Gross margin models were built for each enterprise type, accounting for 11 dairy farm types and 16 farm types for beef and sheep. Disease parameters, including changes in mortality, reproduction performance, milk yield, price of animals and culling rate, as well as additional expenses for veterinary intervention, were applied to the infected compartment of the herd/flock using the assumed annual within-herd disease incidence. Farm-level disease impacts were estimated as the difference in annual profit between the baseline and infected farm. The baseline gross margin models were validated against the industry data. The disease impact models were validated using a recently published study on bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD). The impact assessment tool, LIME-NZ, was developed using the statistical software R and implemented in the web-based R package Shiny. The input parameters can be varied interactively to obtain a range of disease impacts for uncertain disease parameters.

RESULTS

The baseline gross margin models demonstrated reasonable accuracy with a mean percentage error of <14% when compared with the industry reports. The estimated annual impacts of BVD were comparable to those reported in the BVD study, NZ$38.5-140.4 thousand and $0.9-32.6 thousand per farm per year for dairy and beef enterprises, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LIME-NZ can be used to rapidly obtain the likely economic impacts of diseases that are endemic, recently introduced or at increased risk of introduction in the New Zealand context. This will aid communication and decision-making among government agencies and the livestock industry, including veterinarians and livestock producers, about the management of diseases, until refined information becomes available to improve decision-making.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

BACKGROUND

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS

In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway.

RESULTS

Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area.

CONCLUSION

This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.

Evaluation of the economic impact of classical and African swine fever epidemics using OutCosT, a new spreadsheet-based tool

African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are two major transboundary animal diseases of swine with important socioeconomic consequences at farm, subnational and national level. The objective of this study was to evaluate the direct cost of outbreaks and their control at country/regional level in four countries: namely CSF in Colombia in 2015-2016, the retrospective cost of ASF in the Philippines in 2019 and in a province of Vietnam in 2020 and a hypothetical ASF scenario in one region in North Macedonia, using the newly developed Outbreak Costing Tool (OutCosT). The tool calculates the costs of 106 different items, broken down by up to four types of farms, and by who assumes the cost (whether veterinary services, farmers or other stakeholders). The total cost of CSF in Colombia was US$ 3.8 million, of which 88% represented the cost of the vaccination campaign. For ASF, there were wide differences between countries: US$ 8,26,911 in Lao Cai (Vietnam), US$ 33,19,666 in North Macedonia and over US$ 58 million in the Philippines. While in the Philippines and Vietnam, 96-98% of the cost occurred in the affected farms, the highest expenditure in North Macedonia scenario was the movement control of the neighbouring and at-risk farms (77%). These important differences between countries depend on the spread of the disease, but also on the production systems affected and the measures applied. Apart from the financial cost, these diseases have other negative impacts, especially in the livelihoods of smallholder farms. The OutCosT tool also allows users to evaluate qualitatively other important aspects related to the epidemics, such as the impact on human health, the environment, animal welfare, socioeconomic vulnerability, trading and political response. OutCosT, which is a FAO corporate tool (available online at: https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/faoweb/animal-health/OutCosT_PIG.xlsx), can be an important tool to support country authorities to rapidly respond to a swine disease outbreak by estimating the associated costs and for advocacy purposes to mobilize resources at national or international levels.