Establishment of a prognostic nomogram to identify optimal candidates for local treatment among patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Prognostic value of pre-treatment [18F] FDG PET/CT in recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma without distant metastasis

BACKGROUND

[18 F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) has the ability to detect local and/or regional recurrence as well as distant metastasis. We aimed to evaluate the prognosis value of PET/CT in locoregional recurrent nasopharyngeal (lrNPC).

METHODS

A total of 451 eligible patients diagnosed with recurrent I-IVA (rI-IVA) NPC between April 2009 and December 2015 were retrospectively included in this study. The differences in overall survival (OS) of lrNPC patients with and without PET/CT were compared in the I-II, III-IVA, r0-II, and rIII-IVA cohorts, which were grouped by initial staging and recurrent staging (according to MRI).

RESULTS

In the III-IVA and rIII-IVA NPC patients, with PET/CT exhibited significantly higher OS rates in the univariate analysis (P = 0.045; P = 0.009; respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that with PET/CT was an independent predictor of OS in the rIII-IVA cohort (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.476; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.267 to 0.847; P = 0.012). In the rIII-IVA NPC, patients receiving PET/CT sacns before salvage surgery had a better prognosis compared with MRI alone (P = 0.036). The recurrent stage (based on PET/CT) was an independent predictor of OS. (r0-II versus [vs]. rIII-IVA; HR = 0.376; 95% CI: 0.150 to 0.938; P = 0.036).

CONCLUSION

The present study showed that with PET/CT could improve overall survival for rIII-IVA NPC patients. PET/CT appears to be an effective method for assessing rTNM staging.

Induction chemotherapy plus re-irradiation versus re-irradiation alone in locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A model-based analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of additional induction chemotherapy (IC) prior to re-irradiation in locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC).

METHODS

A total of 480 patients from three cancer treatment centers who received re-irradiation between 2012 and 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Overall survival (OS) was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank method. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was performed to match the patients in pairwise treatment groups. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards regression method identified predictors of OS. The risk stratification model was defined by the risk score calculated with the sum of coefficients.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, the addition of IC was associated with similar OS compared with radiotherapy alone (P = 0.58) or with concomitant chemoradiation (P = 0.76). A risk stratification model was constructed and validated based on significant prognostic factors (coefficient) including male (0.6), age ≥ 60 years (0.9), volume of recurrence gross tumor volume ≥ 16 cc (0.7), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)-ratio ≥ 0.5 (0.4). In the intermediate-risk group (sum of coefficient: 0.9---1.6), patients with IC plus re-irradiation had a significantly better OS than those who received re-irradiation (P = 0.03). After adjustments for several potentially confounding variables with IPTW, survival benefit of IC was also observed (P = 0.031). However, no significant difference in OS for the additional IC prior to re-irradiation was demonstrated in the low- (sum of coefficient: <0.9) and high-risk group (sum of coefficient: > 1.6).

CONCLUSION

Additional IC prior to re-irradiation was associated with improved OS in the intermediate-risk group of lrNPC, whereas there was no difference for the low-risk and high-risk group. Prospective validation is required to validate these findings.

Treatment of loco-regional recurrence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a non-endemic area: oncologic outcomes, morbidity, and proposal of a prognostic nomogram

Introduction

The study assessed outcomes and toxicities of different treatment modalities for local and/or regional recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in a non-endemic area.

Methods

Patients treated with curative intent for recurrent NPC with salvage surgery, photon-based radiotherapy, proton therapy (PT), with or without chemotherapy, at different Italian referral centers between 1998 and 2020 were included. Adverse events and complications were classified according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. Characteristics of the patients, tumors, treatments, and complications are presented along with uni- and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors. A survival predictive nomogram is also provided.

Results

A total of 140 patients treated from 1998 to 2020 were retrospectively assessed. Cases with lower age, comorbidity rate, stage, and shorter disease-free interval (DFI) preferentially underwent endoscopic surgery. More advanced cases underwent re-irradiation, fairly distributed between photon-based radiotherapy and PT. Age and DFI were independent factors influencing overall survival. No independent prognostic effect of treatment modality was observed. No significant difference in the morbidity profile of treatments was observed, with 40% of patients experiencing at least one adverse event classified as G3 or higher.

Conclusion

Recurrent NPC in a non-endemic area has dissimilar aspects compared to its endemic counterpart, suggesting the need for further studies that can guide the choice of the best treatment modality.

Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT parameters.

METHODS

A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003)，with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01-1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04-3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32-4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1-184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49-3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50-7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714-0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed that [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential.

KEY POINTS

• [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application.

Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors affecting survival after radical radiotherapy for early and late post-treatment metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

We compared the clinical characteristics and survival outcomes after radical radiotherapy between nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with early and late metastases based on a relatively large cohort, which provides valuable data for the planning of clinical surveillance strategies.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective analysis of 10,566 patients who received radical radiotherapy in China from January 2000 to December 2016. Overall survival was the primary endpoint. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests were applied to investigate the association between early or late metastasis and the endpoints. The prognostic value of clinicopathological features was identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The cutoff value for time to metastasis was based on ROC analysis. A total of 559 (5.3%) patients developed distant metastases, 297 (53.1%) of which developed early metastatic disease, with the rest (46.9%) developing late metastatic disease. The K-M analysis showed that the patients with late metastatic foci had significantly better post-metastatic OS (P = 0.0056). Multivariate analysis indicated that age, liver metastasis, the number of metastatic foci and time to metastasis (P = 0.013) are independent prognostic factors for OS. After analyzing the impact of different treatment methods, we found that local treatment was an independent protective factor for LM, while local treatment was not associated with a survival benefit for EM disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The time to metastasis after radical radiotherapy affected the prognosis of NPC patients and local treatment was an independent protective factor that could improve the survival of late metastatic NPC patients.

The Normal, the Radiosensitive, and the Ataxic in the Era of Precision Radiotherapy: A Narrative Review

(1) Background: radiotherapy is a cornerstone of cancer treatment. When delivering a tumoricidal dose, the risk of severe late toxicities is usually kept below 5% using dose-volume constraints. However, individual radiation sensitivity (iRS) is responsible (with other technical factors) for unexpected toxicities after exposure to a dose that induces no toxicity in the general population. Diagnosing iRS before radiotherapy could avoid unnecessary toxicities in patients with a grossly normal phenotype. Thus, we reviewed iRS diagnostic data and their impact on decision-making processes and the RT workflow; (2) Methods: following a description of radiation toxicities, we conducted a critical review of the current state of the knowledge on individual determinants of cellular/tissue radiation; (3) Results: tremendous advances in technology now allow minimally-invasive genomic, epigenetic and functional testing and a better understanding of iRS. Ongoing large translational studies implement various tests and enriched NTCP models designed to improve the prediction of toxicities. iRS testing could better support informed radiotherapy decisions for individuals with a normal phenotype who experience unusual toxicities. Ethics of medical decisions with an accurate prediction of personalized radiotherapy's risk/benefits and its health economics impact are at stake; (4) Conclusions: iRS testing represents a critical unmet need to design personalized radiotherapy protocols relying on extended NTCP models integrating iRS.

Deep learning signatures reveal multiscale intratumor heterogeneity associated with biological functions and survival in recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PURPOSE

How to discriminate different risks of recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (rNPC) patients and guide individual treatment has become of great importance. This study aimed to explore the associations between deep learning signatures and biological functions as well as survival in (rNPC) patients.

METHODS

A total of 420 rNPC patients with PET/CT imaging and follow-up of overall survival (OS) were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 269) and test set (n = 151) with a 6:4 ratio. We constructed multi-modality deep learning signatures from PET and CT images with a light-weighted deep convolutional neural network EfficienetNet-lite0 and survival loss DeepSurvLoss. An integrated nomogram was constructed incorporating clinical factors and deep learning signatures from PET/CT. Clinical nomogram and single-modality deep learning nomograms were also built for comparison. Furthermore, the association between biological functions and survival risks generated from an integrated nomogram was analyzed by RNA sequencing (RNA-seq).

RESULTS

The C-index of the integrated nomogram incorporating age, rT-stage, and deep learning PET/CT signature was 0.741 (95% CI: 0.688-0.794) in the training set and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.679-0.785) in the test set. The nomogram stratified patients into two groups with high risk and low risk in both the training set and test set with hazard ratios (HR) of 4.56 (95% CI: 2.80-7.42, p < 0.001) and 4.05 (95% CI: 2.21-7.43, p < 0.001), respectively. The C-index of the integrated nomogram was significantly higher than the clinical nomogram and single-modality nomograms. When stratified by sex, N-stage, or EBV DNA, risk prediction of our integrated nomogram was valid in all patient subgroups. Further subgroup analysis showed that patients with a low-risk could benefit from surgery and re-irradiation, while there was no difference in survival rates between patients treated by chemotherapy in the high-risk and low-risk groups. RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of data further explored the mechanism of high- and low-risk patients from the genetic and molecular level.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that PET/CT-based deep learning signatures showed satisfactory prognostic predictive performance in rNPC patients. The nomogram incorporating deep learning signatures successfully divided patients into different risks and had great potential to guide individual treatment: patients with a low-risk were supposed to be treated with surgery and re-irradiation, while for high-risk patients, the application of palliative chemotherapy may be sufficient.

Impact of salvage radiotherapy on survival of patients with advanced locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Derivation and validation of a predictive model

BACKGROUND

Salvage radiotherapy (RT) is a potentially curative approach for advanced locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), but it is associated with severe toxicities. We aimed to develop a model to predict which patients would benefit from salvage RT.

METHODS

A total of 809 patients who were diagnosed with advanced locally recurrent NPC and treated with salvage RT or palliative chemotherapy (CT) at a high-volume cancer center were included. Patients were randomly split into a training and validation set and matched using inverse probability of treatment weighting. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Candidate variables associated with heterogeneous treatment effects were identified with interaction terms in Cox model and incorporated into Salvage Radiotherapy Outcome Score (SARTOS).

RESULTS

The final model included five interaction terms indicating that female sex, presence of prior RT-induced grade ≥ 3 late toxicities and suboptimal performance status were associated with less benefit from salvage RT. SARTOS from the model significantly predicted treatment effects of salvage RT in matched training (P_interation < 0.001) and validation cohorts (P_interation = 0.027). Of patients in high SARTOS subgroup, salvage RT significantly improved survival versus palliative CT in matched training (3-year OS 67.3% vs. 42.0%, HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.82, P = 0.005) and validation cohorts (3-year OS 71.8% vs. 22.8%, HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.97, P = 0.042); in low SARTOS subgroup, salvage RT failed to induce survival benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the SARTOS model could identify a subgroup of patients who benefit from salvage RT versus palliative CT, which helps personalize treatment recommendations for patients with recurrent NPC.

Development of a Comorbidity-Based Nomogram to Predict Survival After Salvage Reirradiation of Locally Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Era

Purpose

To assess the impact of comorbidity on treatment outcomes in patients with locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) using intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and to develop a nomogram that combines prognostic factors to predict clinical outcome and guide individual treatment.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of patients with lrNPC who were reirradiated with IMRT between 2003 and 2014. Comorbidity was evaluated by Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 grading (ACE-27). The significant prognostic factors (P < 0.05) by multivariate analysis using the Cox regression model were adopted into the nomogram model. Harrell concordance index (C-index) calibration curves were applied to assess this model.

Results

Between 2003 and 2014, 469 lrNPC patients treated in our institution were enrolled. Significant comorbidity (moderate or severe grade) was present in 17.1% of patients by ACE-27. Patients with no or mild comorbidity had a 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of 36.2 versus 20.0% among those with comorbidity of moderate or severe grade (P < 0.0001). The chemotherapy used was not significantly different in patients with lrNPC (P > 0.05). For the rT3-4 patients, the 5-year OS rate in the chemotherapy + radiation therapy (RT) group was 30.0 versus 16.7% for RT only (P = 0.005). The rT3-4 patients with no or mild comorbidity were associated with a higher 5-year OS rate in the chemotherapy + RT group than in the RT only group (32.1 and 17.1%, respectively; P=0.003). However, for the rT3-4 patients with a comorbidity (moderate or severe grade), the 5-year OS rate in the chemotherapy + RT group vs. RT alone was not significantly different (15.7 vs. 15.0%, respectively; p > 0.05). Eight independent prognostic factors identified from multivariable analysis were fitted into a nomogram, including comorbidity. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.715. The area under curves (AUCs) for the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival were 0.770, 0.764, and 0.780, respectively.

Conclusion

Comorbidity is among eight important prognostic factors for patients undergoing reirradiation. We developed a nomogram for lrNPC patients to predict the probability of death after reirradiation and guide individualized management.

Development of a Nomogram Model for Treatment of Nonmetastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE

Because of tumor heterogeneity, overall survival (OS) differs significantly among individuals with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), even among those with the same clinical stage. Relying solely on TNM staging to guide treatment remains imperfect.

OBJECTIVES

To establish a comprehensive nomogram to estimate individualized OS and to explore stratified treatment regimens for risk subgroups in nonmetastatic NPC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included 8093 patients diagnosed with NPC at a single center in China from April 2009 to December 2015. The sample was split into a training cohort (5398 participants [66.7%]) and validation cohort (2695 [33.3%]). Data were analyzed in May 2020.

EXPOSURES

Age, T stage, N stage, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and albumin (ALB) levels.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was OS. The nomogram for estimating OS was generated based on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The performance of the nomogram was quantified using Harrell concordance index (C index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, and a calibration curve. OS rates were established using the Kaplan-Meier method, and intersubgroup differences were examined by the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Among the 8093 participants, 5688 (70.3%) were men, and the median age at diagnosis was 45 years (range, 7-85 years). Six variables (age, T stage, N stage, EBV DNA levels, LDH levels, and ALB levels) were identified through multivariate Cox regression and incorporated into a nomogram to estimate OS. The resulting nomogram showed excellent discriminative ability and significantly outperformed the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control TNM staging system for estimating OS (C index, 0.716 [95% CI, 0.698-0.734] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.624-0.661]; P < .001; AUC, 0.717 [95% CI, 0.698-0.737] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.623-0.662]; P < .001), and the calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual and nomogram-estimated OS rates. The validation cohort confirmed the results. Patients were stratified into 4 risk groups based on the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile score values estimated from the nomogram. The 4 nomogram-defined risk groups demonstrated significantly different intergroup OS (3-year OS rates: risk group 1, 1328 of 1345 [98.7%]; risk group 2, 1289 of 1341 [96.1%]; risk group 3, 1222 of 1321 [92.5%]; risk group 4, 1173 of 1391 [84.3%]; P < .001). These risk groups were associated with the efficacy of different treatment regimens. For example, for risk group 4, induction chemotherapy with concurrent chemoradiotherapy was associated with a significantly better OS than concurrent chemoradiotherapy (log-rank P = .008) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy alone (log-rank P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the proposed nomogram model enabled individualized prognostication of OS and could help to guide risk-adapted treatment for patients with nonmetastatic NPC.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the pre-treatment prediction of early metachronous metastasis in endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a big-data intelligence platform-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Early failure of cancer treatment generally indicates a poor prognosis. Here, we aim to develop and validate a pre-treatment nomogram to predict early metachronous metastasis (EMM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

From 2009 to 2015, a total of 9461 patients with NPC (training cohort: n = 7096; validation cohort: n = 2365) were identified from an institutional big-data research platform. EMM was defined as time to metastasis within 2 years after treatment. Early metachronous distant metastasis-free survival (EM-DMFS) was the primary endpoint. A nomogram was established with the significant prognostic factors for EM-DMFS determined by multivariate Cox regression analyses in the training cohort. The Harrell Concordance Index (C-index), area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration curves were applied to evaluate this model.

RESULTS

EMM account for 73.5% of the total metachronous metastasis rate and is associated with poor long-term survival in NPC. The final nomogram, which included six clinical variables, achieved satisfactory discriminative performance and significantly outperformed the traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification for predicting EM-DMFS: C-index: 0.721 versus 0.638, p < 0.001; AUC: 0.730 versus 0.644, p < 0.001. The calibration curves showed excellent agreement between the predicted and actual EM-DMFS. The nomogram can stratify patients into three risk groups with distinct EM-DMFS (2-year DMFS: 96.8% versus 90.1% versus 80.3%, p < 0.001). A validation cohort supported the results. The three identified risk groups are correlated with the efficacy of different treatment regimens.

CONCLUSION

Our established nomogram can reliably predict EMM in patients with NPC and might aid in formulating risk-adapted treatment decisions and personalized patient follow-up strategies.