Zhai X, Yuan J, Su X, Zhang H, Guo R. Optimized Nomogram for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Prognosis Prediction in Younger Patients (Aged 18-59): Development and Validation.
EAR, NOSE & THROAT JOURNAL 2024:1455613231223901. [PMID:
38284161 DOI:
10.1177/01455613231223901]
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Abstract
PURPOSE
To develop a nomogram model for the predicted overall survival (OS) in patients aged 18 to 59 years with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and assess the value of the clinical application.
METHODS
In total, 1334 registers of NPC patients from 2010 to 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to screen out independent risk factors affecting patients. Cox analysis predicted OS for patients with NPC at 3, 5, and 8 years. Nomogram performance was validated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
RESULTS
Age, sex, race, marital, histological type, tumor size, AJCC stage, and radiotherapy were independent risk factors. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.71] for the training set, and the C-index of the AJCC stage was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62-0.65), both statistically significant (P < .01). The area under the curve for the nomogram at these intervals (0.755, 0.729, and 0.729, respectively) was higher than that of the AJCC stage (0.667, 0.646, and 0.646, respectively), indicating better predictive accuracy. The calibration curves revealed a high degree of agreement between the observation and the prediction. Compared to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, DCA showed better clinical utility.
CONCLUSION
The nomogram as novel predictor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients' survival.
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