Standardizing treatment: a crisis in cancer care

Individualized outcome prognostication for patients with laryngeal cancer

BACKGROUND

Accurate prognostication is essential to the optimal management of laryngeal cancer. Predictive models have been developed to calculate the risk of oncologic outcomes, but extensive external validation of accuracy and reliability is necessary before implementing them into clinical practice.

METHOD

Four published prognostic calculators that predict 5-year overall survival for patients with laryngeal cancer were evaluated using patient information from a prospective epidemiology study cohort (n = 246; median follow-up, 60 months) with previously untreated, stage I through IVb laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

Different calculators yielded substantially different predictions for individual patients. The observed 5-year overall survival was significantly higher than the averaged predicted 5-year overall survival of the 4 calculators (71.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 65%-78%] vs 47.7%). Statistical analyses demonstrated the calculators' limited capacity to discriminate outcomes for risk-stratified patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.68 to 0.72. C-index values were similar for each of the 4 models (range, 0.66-0.68). There was a lower than expected hazard of death for patients who received induction (bioselective) chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.88; P = .024) or primary surgical intervention (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95 % CI, 0.21-0.90; P = .024) compared with those who received concurrent chemoradiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Suboptimal reliability and accuracy limit the integration of existing individualized prediction tools into routine clinical decision making. The calculators predicted significantly worse than observed survival among patients who received induction chemotherapy and primary surgery, suggesting a need for updated consideration of modern treatment modalities. Further development of individualized prognostic calculators may improve risk prediction, treatment planning, and counseling for patients with laryngeal cancer. Cancer 2018;124:706-16. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

A Contemporary Analysis of Surgical Trends in the Treatment of Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx from 1998 to 2012: A Report from the National Cancer Database

BACKGROUND

This study examined surgical trends for oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) from 1998 to 2012, with a post-2009 focus coinciding with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of transoral robotic surgery (TORS).

METHODS

Using the National Cancer Data Base, the study analyzed 84,449 patients with stage I-IVB OPC. χ (2) tests and logistic regression models were used to examine surgical trends.

RESULTS

The use of surgery decreased from 41.4 % in 1998 to 30.4 % in 2009 (p < 0.001). The surgical trends reversed and in 2012 increased to 34.8 % (p < 0.001). There was much variation in surgery in 2012 between American Joint Committee on Cancer stages, with 80.2 % of stage I patients receiving surgery compared with 54.0 % of stage II patients, 36.8 % of stage III patients, and 28.5 % of stage IV patients (p < 0.001). Black patients with high socioeconomic status (SES) showed lower use of surgery (25.3 %) compared to low SES white (32.3 %) and low SES Hispanic patients (27.3 %) (p < 0.001). The highest surgical rates were noted in the West North Central region and lowest rates were observed in the New England and South Atlantic regions. Between 2009 and 2012, independent predictors of surgical treatment included young age, female gender, white or Hispanic race, high SES, private insurance, academic hospitals, hospitals in the West North Central region, residence more than 75 miles from the hospital, increasing comorbidities, stage I disease, and tonsil origin (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Since FDA approval of TORS in 2009, surgical rates have increased with multiple socioeconomic and regional factors affecting patient selection. This study provides a basis for further investigation into factors involved in decision making for OPC patients.