The truth about predictions and emotions: Two meta-analyses of their relationship

Reciprocal relationships between positive expectancies and positive emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-lagged panel study

INTRODUCTION

Previous research highlighted the importance of investigating distinct protective factors that predict the experience of positive emotions during stressful situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this longitudinal study, we specifically focused on positive expectancies towards the future (optimism, response expectancy, and response hope) in relation to the experience of positive emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our primary objectives were to identify the best predictors for experiencing short-term and long-term positive emotions and investigate their interrelationships.

METHODS

Data from 271 participants (average age = 29.2 years, 84.7% female) were analyzed using four cross-lagged models.

RESULTS

Results showed that response expectancy was the best predictor for experiencing positive emotions in the short term, while optimism was the best predictor for experiencing positive emotions in the long term. Additionally, through further exploratory analysis, multiple bidirectional relationships were identified between positive expectancies and positive emotions.

DISCUSSION

Our results highlight the significant role played by positive expectancies in predicting the experience of positive emotions. Specifically, dispositional optimism emerged as a stronger predictor of longer-term positive emotions, whereas response expectancy proved to be a better predictor of shorter-term positive emotions. Thus, interventions targeting positive expectancies have the potential to enhance emotional functioning in individuals during challenging situations like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Social affective forecasting and social anhedonia in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders: a daily diary study

Social anhedonia (SA) is a trait-like phenomenon observed across schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSDs). While in-the-moment social pleasure experiences are intact in SSDs, anticipatory pleasure experiences may be disrupted. Thus, the prediction of future emotions in social situations, or social affective forecasting (SAF), may play a role in SA. Therefore, we utilized daily diary methods to examine SAF in SSD and the association between SAF and SA in 34 SSD and 43 non-SSD individuals. SAF was calculated as the absolute difference between anticipatory and consummatory ratings of 13 positive and negative emotions for daily social interactions reported across eight days. Results suggest that individuals with SSDs are less accurate in forecasting negative, but not positive emotions, for future social interactions. Further, poorer forecasting accuracy of negative emotions were associated with elevated levels of SA and lower social pleasure. Together, these data suggest that inaccuracies in forecasting negative emotions may be a worthwhile intervention target for reducing SA in SSDs.

How badly will I feel if you don't like me?: Social anxiety and predictions of future affect

The current study investigated whether high and low socially anxious individuals would show differences in affective forecasting accuracy (i.e., the prediction of emotional states in response to future events) to positive versus negative social evaluation. High (n=94) and low (n=98) socially anxious participants gave a speech and were randomly assigned to receive a positive or negative evaluation. For affective forecasts made proximally (moments before the speech), those low in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to a greater extent to a negative evaluation versus a positive evaluation. In contrast, those high in social anxiety overpredicted their affect to positive and negative evaluations comparably, and failed to adjust their prediction for a future hypothetical negative evaluation - in effect, not learning from their prior forecasting error. Results suggest that affective forecasting biases deserve further study as a maintaining factor for social anxiety symptoms.