Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis in Intensive Care Medicine

Mortality and costs related to severe acute pancreatitis in the intensive care units of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), 2003-2020

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Comprehensive data on the burden of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in global intensive care units (ICUs) and trends over time are lacking. Our objective was to compare trends in hospital and ICU mortality, in-hospital and ICU length of stay, and costs related to ICU admission in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) for SAP.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, observational, cohort study of ICU admissions reported to the ANZ Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database over three consecutive six-year time periods from 2003 to 2020.

RESULTS

12,635 patients with SAP from 189 ICUs in ANZ were analysed. No difference in adjusted hospital mortality (11.4% vs 11.5% vs 11.0%, p = 0.85) and ICU mortality rates (7.5% vs 8.0% vs 8.1%, p = 0.73) were noted over the study period. Median length of hospital admission reduced over time (13.9 days in 2003-08, 13.1 days in 2009-14 and 12.5 days in 2015-20; p < 0.01). No difference in length of ICU stay was noted over the study period (p = 0.13). The cost of managing SAP in ANZ ICUs remained constant over the three time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically-ill SAP patients in ANZ, no change in mortality has been noted over nearly two decades. There was a slight reduction in hospital stay (1 day), while the length of ICU stay remained unchanged. Given the significant costs related to care of patients with SAP in ICU, these findings highlight the need to prioritise resource allocation for healthcare delivery and targeted clinical research to identify treatments aimed at reducing mortality.

Predictors of the Failure of Noninvasive Ventilation in Patients With Acute Respiratory Failure Caused by Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to identify risk factors associated with the failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Patients who received NIV as a first-line therapy because of acute respiratory failure caused by SAP were enrolled.

RESULTS

A total of 133 patients were enrolled. Of the patients, 32 (24%) experienced NIV failure. Male sex (odds ratio [OR], 4.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-12.22), older age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08), a higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03-1.36), and a procalcitonin level greater than 3.8 ng/mL (OR, 6.28; 95% CI, 2.04-19.31) were independently associated with NIV failure. The receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting NIV failure were 0.67, 0.72, and 0.76 tested by age, procalcitonin, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respectively. From initiation to 24 hours, the patients in the NIV failure group had a higher proportion of Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 14 or less, a higher proportion of pH ≤7.35, and higher respiratory rates than ones in the successful NIV group.

CONCLUSIONS

One of 4 SAP patients experience NIV failure. Age, sex, disease severity, level of inflammation, and vital signs can be used to predict NIV failure.

Extrapancreatic infections are common in acute pancreatitis and they are related to organ failure: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Although the impact of pancreatic infections in acute pancreatitis has been studied extensively, there are no population-based data on extrapancreatic infections and their potential relation to organ failure. We aimed to study the occurrence of pancreatic and extrapancreatic bacterial infections in acute pancreatitis and their relation to patient outcome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients with first-time acute pancreatitis from 2003 to 2012 in a defined area in Sweden were retrospectively evaluated. Data on acute pancreatitis severity, organ failure, infections, and in-hospital mortality were collected.

RESULTS

Overall, 304 bacterial infections occurred in 248/1457 patients (17%). Fifteen percent had extrapancreatic and 2% had pancreatic infections. The lungs (35%), the urinary tract (24%), and the bile ducts (18%) were the most common sites of extrapancreatic infections. Organ failure, severe acute pancreatitis, and in-hospital mortality were more common in patients with vs those without (pancreatic/extrapancreatic) infections (P < 0.05). Organ failure and severe acute pancreatitis occurred more frequently in pancreatic vs extrapancreatic infections (70% vs 34%, P < 0.001 and 67% vs 28%, P < 0.001), but in-hospital mortality did not differ between the two groups (7.4% vs 6.8%, P = 1.0). Both pancreatic and extrapancreatic infections were independent predictors of organ failure (P < 0.05). Out of culture-positive infections, 18% were due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria, without any significant difference between extrapancreatic vs pancreatic infections (P > 0.05). About two out of five infections were of nosocomial origin.

CONCLUSION

Extrapancreatic infections occurred in 15% and pancreatic infections in 2% of patients with first-time acute pancreatitis. Both pancreatic and extrapancreatic infections were independent predictors of organ failure, leading to increased mortality.

Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality: Development of Quality Indicators for Acute Pancreatitis Management

INTRODUCTION

Detailed recommendations and guidelines for acute pancreatitis (AP) management currently exist. However, quality indicators (QIs) are required to measure performance in health care. The goal of the Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality was to formally develop QIs for the management of patients with known or suspected AP using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary expert panel composed of physicians (gastroenterologists, hospitalists, and surgeons) who are acknowledged leaders in their specialties and who represent geographic and practice setting diversity was convened. A literature review was conducted, and a list of proposed QIs was developed. In 3 rounds, panelists reviewed literature, modified QIs, and rated them on the basis of scientific evidence, bias, interpretability, validity, necessity, and proposed performance targets.

RESULTS

Supporting literature and a list of 71 proposed QIs across 10 AP domains (Diagnosis, Etiology, Initial Assessment and Risk Stratification, etc.) were sent to the expert panel to review and independently rate in round 1 (95% of panelists participated). Based on a round 2 face-to-face discussion of QIs (75% participation), 41 QIs were classified as valid. During round 3 (90% participation), panelists rated the 41 valid QIs for necessity and proposed performance thresholds. The final classification determined that 40 QIs were both valid and necessary.

DISCUSSION

Hospitals and providers managing patients with known or suspected AP should ensure that patients receive high-quality care and desired outcomes according to current evidence-based best practices. This physician-led initiative formally developed 40 QIs and performance threshold targets for AP management. Validated QIs provide a dependable quantitative framework for health systems to monitor the quality of care provided to patients with known or suspected AP.

Results of the modification of an acute pancreatitis management protocol in Intensive Care medicine

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the implementation of a protocol for the management of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) improves the clinical outcomes.

DESIGN

A retrospective, before-after observational case series study was carried out.

STUDY PERIOD

1 January 2001 to 31 December 2016, divided in 2 periods (pre-protocol 2001-2007, post-protocol 2008-2016).

SCOPE

An ICU with 48 beds and a recruitment population of 700,000 inhabitants.

PARTICIPANTS

AP patients admitted to the ICU, with no exclusion criteria.

INTERVENTIONS

The recommendations proposed in the 7th Consensus Conference of the SEMICYUC on AP (5 September 2007) were applied in the second period.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Patient age, sex, APACHE II, SOFA, study period, pre-ICU hospital stay, nutrition, surgery, antibiotic prophylaxis, hospital mortality, ICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, determinant-based classification.

RESULTS

The study comprised 286 patients (94 in the pre-protocol period, 192 in the post-protocol period), with a global in-hospital mortality rate of 23.1% (n=66). Application of the protocol decreased the pre-ICU hospital stay and the use of antibiotic prophylaxis, and increased the use of enteral nutrition. Hospital mortality decreased in the second period (35.1 vs. 17.18%; P=.001), with no significant changes in ICU and hospital stays. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the variable period of treatment remained as a variable of statistical significance in terms of hospital mortality (OR 0.34 for the period 2008-2016, 95% CI 0.15-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of a protocol could result in decreased mortality among AP patients admitted to the ICU.