CA19-9 elevation as an indication to start salvage treatment in surveillance after pancreatic cancer resection

Surveillance after surgery for pancreatic cancer: a global scoping review of guidelines and a nordic Survey of contemporary practice

OBJECTIVES

Most patients with pancreatic cancer who have undergone surgical resection eventually develop disease recurrence. ‍This study aimed to investigate whether there is evidence to support routine surveillance after pancreatic cancer surgery, with a secondary aim of analyzing the implementation of surveillance strategies in the Nordic countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A scoping review was conducted to identify clinical practice guidelines globally and research studies relating to surveillance after pancreatic cancer resection. This was followed by a survey among 20 pancreatic units from four Nordic countries to assess their current practice of follow-up for operated patients.

RESULTS

Altogether 16 clinical practice guidelines and 17 research studies were included. The guidelines provided inconsistent recommendations regarding postoperative surveillance of pancreatic cancer. The clinical research data were mainly based on retrospective cohort studies with low level of evidence and lead-time bias was not addressed. Active surveillance was recommended in Sweden and Denmark, but not in Norway beyond the post-operative/adjuvant period. Finland had no national recommendations for surveillance. The Nordic survey revealed a wide variation in reported practice among the different units. About 75% (15 of 20 units) performed routine postoperative surveillance. Routine CA 19-9 testing was used by 80% and routine CT by 67% as part of surveillance. About 73% of centers continued follow-up until 5 years postoperatively.

CONCLUSION

Evidence for routine long-term (i.e. 5 years) surveillance after pancreatic cancer surgery remains limited. Most pancreatic units in the Nordic countries conduct regular follow-up, but protocols vary.

Organ-specific variations in tumor marker dynamics in postoperative pancreatic cancer recurrence: Trends in lung and liver recurrence highlighting biological heterogeneity

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Although tumor recurrence after surgical resection in pancreatic cancer (PC) is generally considered incurable, it is well-accepted that clinical presentations and outcomes vary according to the recurrent sites (e.g., liver vs. lung recurrence), suggesting a possible biological inhomogeneity of PC recurrence. Understanding the behavior of biological factors, specifically tumor markers (TMs), at different recurrence sites may contribute to individualized treatment strategies. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the dynamics of pre-recurrence TMs at liver and lung recurrence sites.

METHODS

Patients with isolated postoperative liver or lung recurrence as their first recurrence were enrolled. Starting from the recurrence date confirmed by imaging examinations, the values of TMs (carbohydrate antigen 19-9: CA19-9; carcinoembryonic antigen: CEA) were retrospectively evaluated 6 and 3 months before recurrence and at the time of recurrence.

RESULTS

Patients with liver recurrence displayed a significant increase in CA19-9 and CEA levels from as early as 6 months before recurrence. Contrastingly, patients with lung recurrence demonstrated a significant elevation of CA19-9 levels starting from 3 months before recurrence, with no increase in CEA levels, even at the time of recurrence. The relative change in CA19-9 and CEA levels during each period were significantly lower in patients with lung recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Both TMs exhibited organ-specific variations in patients with postoperative PC recurrence. This disparity may reflect the biological heterogeneity of PC between recurrence patterns, thereby highlighting the importance of conducting postoperative follow-up with consideration of this fact.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: the latest on diagnosis, molecular profiling, and systemic treatments

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is currently the fourth leading cause of death in the United States and is expected to be ranked second in the next 10 years due to poor prognosis and a rising incidence. Distant metastatic PDAC is associated with the worst prognosis among the different phases of PDAC. The diagnostic options for PDAC are convenient and available for staging, tumor response evaluation, and management of resectable or borderline resectable PDAC. However, imaging is crucial in PDAC diagnosis, monitoring, resectability appraisal, and response evaluation. The advancement of medical technologies is evolving, hence the use of imaging in PDAC treatment options has grown as well as the utilization of ctDNA as a tumor marker. Treatment options for metastatic PDAC are minimal with the primary goal of therapy limited to symptom relief or palliation, especially in patients with low functional capacity at the point of diagnosis. Molecular profiling has shown promising potential solutions that would push the treatment boundaries for patients with PDAC. In this review, we will discuss the latest updates from evidence-based guidelines regarding diagnosis, therapy response evaluation, prognosis, and surveillance, as well as illustrating novel therapies that have been recently investigated for PDAC, in addition to discussing the molecular profiling advances in PDAC.

Dynamics of Serum CA19-9 in Patients Undergoing Pancreatic Cancer Resection

BACKGROUND

Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 is an established perioperative prognostic biomarker for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, it is unclear how CA19-9 monitoring should be used during postoperative surveillance to detect recurrence and to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused therapy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to elucidate the value of CA19-9 as a diagnostic biomarker for disease recurrence in patients who underwent PDAC resection.

METHODS

Serum CA19-9 levels at diagnosis, after surgery, and during postoperative follow-up were analyzed in patients who underwent PDAC resection. All patients with at least two postoperative follow-up CA19-9 measurements before recurrence were included. Patients deemed to be nonsecretors of CA19-9 were excluded. The relative increase in postoperative CA19-9 was calculated for each patient by dividing the maximum postoperative CA19-9 value by the first postoperative value. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to identify the optimal threshold for the relative increase in CA19-9 levels to identify recurrence in the training set using Youden's index. The performance of this cutoff was validated in a test set by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and was compared to the performance of the optimal cutoff for postoperative CA19-9 measurements as a continuous value. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 271 patients were included, of whom 208 (77%) developed recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that a relative increase in postoperative serum CA19-9 of 2.6× was predictive of recurrence, with 58% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 95% positive predictive value, and 28% negative predictive value. The AUC for a 2.6× relative increase in the CA19-9 level was 0.719 in the training set and 0.663 in the test set. The AUC of postoperative CA19-9 as a continuous value (optimal threshold, 52) was 0.671 in the training set. In the training set, the detection of a 2.6-fold increase in CA19-9 preceded the detection of recurrence by a mean difference of 7 months ( P <0.001) and in the test set by 10 months ( P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A relative increase in the postoperative serum CA19-9 level of 2.6-fold is a stronger predictive marker for recurrence than a continuous CA19-9 cutoff. A relative CA19-9 increase can precede the detection of recurrence on imaging for up to 7 to 10 months. Therefore, CA19-9 dynamics can be used as a biomarker to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused treatment.

Tumor Size Reduction and Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 Kinetics After Neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX in Patients With Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Changes in tumor size and serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 are commonly reported markers used to assess response to neoadjuvant therapy in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We evaluated the impact of the percentual tumor size reduction and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 kinetics on resectability and response to neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX.

METHODS

This was an institutional analysis of patients with non-metastatic (upfront resectable, borderline resectable, and locally advanced) pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who underwent neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX. Resectability, pathologic response, disease recurrence, and overall survival were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 193 patients who completed FOLFIRINOX, 60% underwent resection, and 91% were R0. Pathologically, complete, and near-complete responses were achieved in 4% and 40% of patients, respectively. Tumor size reduction (odds ratio 1.02 per 1%, P = .024) and normalization of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (odds ratio 2.61, P = .035) were associated with increased odds of resectability. Concerning pathologic response, tumor size reduction (odds ratio 1.03 per 1%, P = .018) was associated with increased odds of a complete and near-complete response. Lastly, in resected patients, a postoperative increase in carbohydrate antigen 19-9 after prior normalization after neoadjuvant therapy were at an increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 9.58, P < .001) and worse survival (hazard ratio 10.4, P < .001) compared to patients who maintained normalization.

CONCLUSION

In patients with non-metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who underwent neoadjuvant therapy, tumor size reduction was a significant predictor of resectability and pathologic response, including complete and near complete responses, whereas serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 normalization predicted resectability, disease recurrence, and survival. Patients with a postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 rise after prior normalization after administration of neoadjuvant therapy were at an increased risk of recurrence and worse overall survival.

Surveillance With Serial Imaging and CA 19-9 Tumor Marker Testing After Resection of Pancreatic Cancer: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

OBJECTIVES

Most patients receiving curative-intent surgery for pancreatic cancer will experience cancer recurrence. However, evidence that postoperative surveillance testing improves survival or quality of life is lacking. We evaluated the use and characteristics of surveillance with serial imaging and CA 19-9 tumor marker testing at an NCI-designated comprehensive cancer center.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who entered surveillance after curative-intent resection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We abstracted information from the electronic medical record about oncology office visits, surveillance testing (cross-sectional imaging and CA 19-9 tumor marker testing), and pancreatic cancer recurrence, with follow-up through 2 years after pancreatectomy. We conducted analyses to describe the use of surveillance testing and to characterize the sensitivity and specificity of CA 19-9 tumor marker testing for the identification of cancer recurrence.

RESULTS

We identified 90 patients entering surveillance after pancreatectomy. CA 19-9 was the most frequently used surveillance test, followed by CT imaging. Forty-seven patients (52.2%) experienced recurrence within two years of pancreatectomy. Recurrence risk was 58.8% versus 31.8% in patients with elevated versus normal CA 19-9 at diagnosis ( P =0.03). Elevated CA 19-9 at any point during surveillance was significantly associated with 2-year recurrence risk ( P <0.001). Elevated CA 19-9 had a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI 0.72-0.95) and specificity of 87% (0.76-0.98) for identification of recurrence within 2 years of pancreatectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

CA 19-9 demonstrates clinical validity for identifying recurrence of pancreatic cancer during surveillance. Surveillance approaches with reduced reliance on imaging should be prospectively evaluated.

New Cancer-Related Symptoms Predict Recurrence in CA19-9 Non-Expressers After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

CA19-9 elevation has been reported to predict recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), although only two-thirds of patients are expressers. Preoperatively, cancer-related symptoms predict outcome; however, it is unknown whether symptoms predict recurrence during surveillance, particularly for CA19-9 non-expressers.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection of PDAC at our institution from 2012 to 21 (n = 165) were retrospectively reviewed for CA19-9 and symptoms, which were correlated with recurrence-free survival (RFS). Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

During postoperative surveillance, CA19-9 elevation and development of symptoms (abdominal pain, weight loss, or jaundice) were associated with worse RFS (P < .05). Multivariate analysis showed that both symptoms and CA19-9 were independently predictive of RFS (HR 1.8 [1.1-2.9; P = .025] and 2.5 [1.0-6.0; P = .048]). Among CA19-9 non-expressers (n = 51), development of symptoms was associated with detection of recurrence (P = .012).

CONCLUSIONS

Among CA19-9 non-expressers, development of symptoms predicted recurrence, providing a useful tool for recurrence detection in these patients.

Identifying Effective Biomarkers for Accurate Pancreatic Cancer Prognosis Using Statistical Machine Learning

Pancreatic cancer (PC) has one of the lowest survival rates among all major types of cancer. Consequently, it is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. Serum biomarkers historically correlate well with the early prognosis of post-surgical complications of PC. However, attempts to identify an effective biomarker panel for the successful prognosis of PC were almost non-existent in the current literature. The current study investigated the roles of various serum biomarkers including carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 8 (CXCL-8), procalcitonin (PCT), and other relevant clinical data for identifying PC progression, classified into sepsis, recurrence, and other post-surgical complications, among PC patients. The most relevant biochemical and clinical markers for PC prognosis were identified using a random-forest-powered feature elimination method. Using this informative biomarker panel, the selected machine-learning (ML) classification models demonstrated highly accurate results for classifying PC patients into three complication groups on independent test data. The superiority of the combined biomarker panel (Max AUC-ROC = 100%) was further established over using CA19-9 features exclusively (Max AUC-ROC = 75%) for the task of classifying PC progression. This novel study demonstrates the effectiveness of the combined biomarker panel in successfully diagnosing PC progression and other relevant complications among Egyptian PC survivors.

The Impact of Biomarkers in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma on Diagnosis, Surveillance and Therapy

Simple Summary

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Due to the frequently late diagnosis, early metastasis and high therapy resistance curation is rare and prognosis remains poor overall. To provide early diagnostic and therapeutic predictors, various molecules from blood, tissue and other origin e.g., saliva, urine and stool, have been identified as biomarkers. This review summarizes current trends in biomarkers for diagnosis and therapy of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Abstract

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is still difficult to treat due to insufficient methods for early diagnosis and prediction of therapy response. Furthermore, surveillance after curatively intended surgery lacks adequate methods for timely detection of recurrence. Therefore, several molecules have been analyzed as predictors of recurrence or early detection of PDAC. Enhanced understanding of molecular tumorigenesis and treatment response triggered the identification of novel biomarkers as predictors for response to conventional chemotherapy or targeted therapy. In conclusion, progress has been made especially in the prediction of therapy response with biomarkers. The use of molecules for early detection and recurrence of PDAC is still at an early stage, but there are promising approaches in noninvasive biomarkers, composite panels and scores that can already ameliorate the current clinical practice. The present review summarizes the current state of research on biomarkers for diagnosis and therapy of pancreatic cancer.

Current Role of Surgery in Pancreatic Cancer With Synchronous Liver Metastasis

Pancreatic cancer with synchronous liver metastasis has an extremely poor prognosis, and surgery is not recommended for such patients by the current guidelines. However, an increasing body of studies have shown that concurrent resection of pancreatic cancer and liver metastasis is not only technically feasible but also beneficial to the survival in the selected patients. In this review, we aim to summarize the short- and long-term outcomes following synchronous liver metastasectomy for pancreatic cancer patients, and discuss the potential criteria in selecting appropriate surgical candidates, which might be helpful in clinical decision-making.

Preoperative plasma D-dimer independently predicts survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma undergoing radical resection

Background

Elevated plasma D-dimer levels have been reported as an unfavorable prognostic indicator in many solid tumors. However, there are limited relevant studies in pancreatic cancer patients following radical surgery, and the clinical significance remains controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and prognostic significance of preoperative plasma D-dimer in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing resection.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients who consecutively underwent radical surgery for PDAC by laparotomy or robotic surgery from December 2011 to December 2018. Baseline clinicopathologic characteristics, preoperative laboratory parameters, and follow-up information were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the prognostic value of preoperative plasma D-dimer.

Results

Among 1351 patients, elevated preoperative plasma D-dimer levels (≥ 0.55 ng/mL) were found in 417 (30.9%) patients. Three hundred twelve (23.09%) underwent minimally invasive robotic pancreatectomy. The median overall survival (OS) of patients with elevated D-dimer levels was 6.3 months shorter than that of patients with normal D-dimer levels (15.0 months vs 21.3 months, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that elevated D-dimer levels independently predicted poorer OS (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.51, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that D-dimer was a reliable prognostic factor in patients who underwent R0 resection. In addition, integration of D-dimer, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and NLR provided a better prognostic model for PDAC patients before operation.

Conclusion

An elevated preoperative plasma D-dimer level was a reliable independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with PDAC undergoing resection. Combination of D-dimer, CA19-9, and NLR can enhance the prognostic accuracy before operation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-021-02281-8.

Clinical benefit of surveillance after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The value of routine surveillance after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unclear, and expert guidelines offer conflicting recommendations. This study is a systematic review of evidence for surveillance programs.

METHODS

A systematic review of studies evaluating different surveillance methods was undertaken. A meta-analysis was performed for those studies reporting rates of asymptomatic recurrence, treatment of recurrence and overall survival, according to different surveillance methods.

RESULTS

Ten studies were included in the literature review, with five studies appropriate for meta-analysis (1596 patients). Patients within active surveillance programs were more likely to have recurrence detected at an asymptomatic stage (Pooled Rate: 49.3% vs. 19.1%, p = 0.043). Within studies reporting these outcomes, patients with asymptomatic recurrence were more likely to receive treatment for recurrence (Odds Ratio 3.49; 95% CI: 1.73-7.07; p < 0.001) and had longer overall survival (Mean Difference: 9.5 months; 95% CI: 4.1-14.8; p < 0.001) than those with symptoms at time of recurrence.

DISCUSSION

Routine surveillance after surgery for PDAC appears to detect more patients at an asymptomatic stage. Data from these non-randomised trials also suggest that treatment rates and survival may be superior in patients were recurrence is detected when asymptomatic. As such, these data suggest that routine surveillance may improve patient outcomes, although an appropriately conducted trial would be required to address concerns that various sources of bias may be affecting these results.

Roles of CA19-9 in pancreatic cancer: Biomarker, predictor and promoter

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is the best validated biomarker and an indicator of aberrant glycosylation in pancreatic cancer. CA19-9 functions as a biomarker, predictor, and promoter in pancreatic cancer. As a biomarker, the sensitivity is approximately 80%, and the major challenges involve false positives in conditions of inflammation and nonpancreatic cancers and false negatives in Lewis-negative Individuals. Lewis antigen status should be determined when using CA19-9 as a biomarker. CA19-9 has screening potential when combined with symptoms and/or risk factors. As a predictor, CA19-9 could be used to assess stage, prognosis, resectability, recurrence, and therapeutic efficacy. Normal baseline levels of CA19-9 are associated with long-term survival. As a promoter, CA19-9 could be used to evaluate the biology of pancreatic cancer. CA19-9 can accelerate pancreatic cancer progression by glycosylating proteins, binding to E-selectin, strengthening angiogenesis, and mediating the immunological response. CA19-9 is an attractive therapeutic target for cancer, and strategies include therapeutic antibodies and vaccines, CA19-9-guided nanoparticles, and inhibition of CA19-9 biosynthesis.

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 - tumor marker: Past, present, and future

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) is a cell surface glycoprotein complex most commonly associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Koprowski first described it in 1979 using a mouse monoclonal antibody in a colorectal carcinoma cell line. Historically, it is one of the most commonly used tumor markers for diagnosing, managing, and prognosticating PDAC. Additionally, elevated CA 19-9 levels are used as an indication for surgery in suspected benign pancreatic conditions. Another common application of CA 19-9 in the biliary tract includes its use as an adjunct in diagnosing cholangiocarcinoma. However, its clinical value is not limited to the hepatopancreatobiliary system. The reality is that the advancing literature has broadened the clinical value of CA 19-9. The potential value of CA 19-9 in patients' workup extends its reach to gastrointestinal cancers - such as colorectal and oesophageal cancer - and further beyond the gastrointestinal tract - including urological, gynecological, pulmonary, and thyroid pathologies. Apart from its role in investigations, CA 19-9 presents a potential therapeutic target in PDAC and acute pancreatitis. In a bid to consolidate its broad utility, we appraised and reviewed the biomarker's current utility and limitations in investigations and management, while discussing the potential applications for CA 19-9 in the works for the future.

Prognostic Biomarkers for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: An Umbrella Review

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) leads to the majority of cancer-related deaths due to its morbidity with similar mortality. Lack of effective prognostic biomarkers are the main reason for belated post-operative intervention of recurrence which causes high mortality. Numerous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have explored the prognostic value of biomarkers in PDAC so far. In this article, we performed an umbrella review analyzing these studies to provide an overview of associations between prognostic biomarkers and PDAC survival outcome and synthesized these results to guide better clinical practice.

Methods: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses investigating the associations between PDAC survival outcomes and prognostic biomarkers were acquired via the PubMed and Embase databases from inception till February 1, 2020. Associations supported by nominally statistically significant results were classified into strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, and weak based on several critical factors such as the statistical significance of summary estimates, the number of events, the estimate of the largest study included, interstudy heterogeneity, small-study effects, 95% predictive interval (PI), excess significance bias, and the results of credibility ceiling sensitivity analyses.

Results: We included 41 meta-analyses containing 63 associations between PDAC survival outcomes and prognostic biomarkers. Although, none was supported by strong evidence among these associations, an association between C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) and PDAC overall survival (OS) and an association between neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and PDAC OS were supported by highly suggestive evidence. Otherwise, the association between lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and PDAC OS was supported by suggestive evidence. The remaining 60 associations were supported by weak or not suggestive evidence.

Conclusion: Associations between CAR or NLR and PDAC OS were supported by highly suggestive evidence. And the association between LDH and PDAC OS was supported by suggestive evidence. Although the methodological quality of the included systematic reviews and meta-analyses which were evaluated by AMSTAR2.0 is generally poor, the identification of the relatively robust prognostic biomarkers of PDAC may guide better post-operative intervention and follow-up to prolong patients' survival.

CA19-9 for detecting recurrence of pancreatic cancer

CA19-9 values are regularly measured in patients with pancreatic cancer. Certainly, its potential as a biomarker has been compromised by false negative results in CA19-9 negative patients and false positive results in benign pancreatico-biliary diseases. For detection of PDAC recurrence, however, CA19-9 might play an important role. The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy of CA19-9 for detecting recurrence of pancreatic cancer. All included patients were treated either at the University Medical Center Goettingen, or at the Department of Interdisciplinary Oncology and Pneumonology, DRK-Kliniken Nordhessen, Kassel. We analyzed data of 93 patients with pancreatic cancer in the training set and 41 in the validation set, both retrospectively. Pre- and postoperative CA19-9 values and results of imaging techniques were compared. We performed ROC-analysis. The association between longitudinally measured CA19-9 values and relapse was studied with a joint model between a random effects model for the longitudinal CA19-9 measurements and a Cox proportional hazards models for the survival data. In the test set (n = 93 patients) the median follow-up time was 644 days (22 months). Overall, 71 patients (76.3%) developed recurrence during follow-up. Patients with CA19-9 values of <10kU/l were considered as CA19-9 negative patients (n = 11) and excluded from further analysis. Among the rest, approximately 60% of the patients showed significantly elevated CA19-9 prior to detection of recurrence by imaging techniques. Recurrence was shown by 2.45 times elevated CA19-9 values with 90% positive predictive value. In the validation set, 2.45 times elevated CA19-9 values showed recurrence with 90% sensitivity and 83,33% specificity, with an area under the curve of 95%. Based on measured CA19-9 values during follow-up care, the joint model estimates in recurrence-free patients the probability of recurrence-free survival. CA19-9 elevation is an early and reliable sign for PDAC recurrence. On the strength of a very high accuracy in CA19-9 positive patients, it should be considered to use CA19-9 for therapy decision even without a correlate of imaging technics. Using the joint model, follow-up care of PDAC patients after curative therapy can be stratified.