Survival analysis and prognostic nomogram model for multiple system atrophy

Data-Driven Subtypes of Multiple System Atrophy and Their Implications for Prognosis

Background

While multiple system atrophy (MSA) presents with high heterogeneous motor and nonmotor symptoms, the associations between clinical phenotypes and prognosis are unclear.

Objective

We aimed to evaluate clinical phenotypes of MSA using data-driven approach and measure the impact of phenotypes on survival and bedbound status.

Methods

193 MSA patients were recruited from Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University, whose history, motor and non-motor symptoms were examined using cluster analysis. Ninety-five participants were followed-up via telephone after a mean of 31.87 months. We employed Kaplan- Meier analysis to examine survival and performed Cox and logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with survival and bedbound status.

Results

We identified four clinical profiles of MSA: cerebellar symptom-dominant, sleep and mood disorder-dominant, rigid akinetic-dominant, and malignant diffuse. The overall median survival was 7.75 years (95% CI 7.19-8.31). After adjusting for years from symptom onset to diagnosis, age and sex, patients in the malignant diffuse and rigid akinetic-dominant clusters had greater risk of death than sleep and mood disorder-dominant cluster. Furthermore, patients in the malignant diffuse and rigid akinetic-dominant clusters had higher risk of being bedbound than cerebellar symptom-dominant cluster.

Conclusions

The malignant diffuse and sleep and mood disorder-dominant were identified besides the two classical subtypes, parkinsonism, and cerebellar symptom-variant. Patients with rigid-akinetic motor profiles have a worse prognosis than cerebellar symptom-dominant profiles in general. Diffuse symptoms, especially postural instability, and cognitive alterations at diagnosis, indicate rapid functional loss and disease progression. The different profiles and prognoses might indicate varied underlying pathological mechanisms.

External validation of a nomogram predicting conditional survival after tri-modality treatment of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

A conditional survival nomogram was developed at a single high-volume center to predict 5-year overall survival for esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate the nomogram in a cohort of patients with esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma from another high-volume center.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with an esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma who had undergone esophagectomy after being treated with preoperative chemoradiation between 2004 and 2016 were selected from a prospectively maintained institutional database. The level of discrimination for prediction of 5-year overall survival was quantified by Harrell's C statistic. Calibration of the conditional survival nomogram was visualized by plotting predicted 5-year survival and observed 5-year survival for comparison.

RESULTS

Of the 296 patients examined, the probability of 5-year overall survival directly after surgery was 45% and increased to 51%, 68%, 78%, and 89% for each additional year survived. The predicted 5-year overall survival differed from the observed survival, with a calibration slope of 0.54, 0.55, 0.59, 0.73, and 1.09 directly after surgery and 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival after surgery, respectively. The nomogram's discrimination level for 5-year survival was moderate, with a C statistic of 0.65 compared to the 0.70 reported in the original study.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model has moderate predictive discrimination and accuracy, supporting its applicability to external cohorts to predict conditional survival. Further validation studies should empirically assess the model for predictive performance.

A Review on the Clinical Diagnosis of Multiple System Atrophy

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a rare, adult-onset, progressive neurodegenerative disorder with major diagnostic challenges. Aiming for a better diagnostic accuracy particularly at early disease stages, novel Movement Disorder Society criteria for the diagnosis of MSA (MDS MSA criteria) have been recently developed. They introduce a neuropathologically established MSA category and three levels of clinical diagnostic certainty including clinically established MSA, clinically probable MSA, and the research category of possible prodromal MSA. The diagnosis of clinically established and clinically probable MSA is based on the presence of cardiovascular or urological autonomic failure, parkinsonism (poorly L-Dopa-responsive for the diagnosis of clinically established MSA), and cerebellar syndrome. These core clinical features need to be associated with supportive motor and non-motor features (MSA red flags) and absence of any exclusion criteria. Characteristic brain MRI markers are required for a diagnosis of clinically established MSA. A research category of possible prodromal MSA is devised to capture patients manifesting with autonomic failure or REM sleep behavior disorder and only mild motor signs at the earliest disease stage. There is a number of promising laboratory markers for MSA that may help increase the overall clinical diagnostic accuracy. In this review, we will discuss the core and supportive clinical features for a diagnosis of MSA in light of the new MDS MSA criteria, which laboratory tools may assist in the clinical diagnosis and which major differential diagnostic challenges should be borne in mind.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Overall Survival in Multiple System Atrophy

Background

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a devastating disease characterized by a variable combination of motor and autonomic symptoms. Previous studies identified numerous clinical factors to be associated with shorter survival.

Objective

To enable personalized patient counseling, we aimed at developing a risk model of survival based on baseline clinical symptoms.

Methods

MSA patients referred to the Movement Disorders Unit in Innsbruck, Austria, between 1999 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty for variable selection were performed to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed to estimate the 7 years overall survival probability. The performance of the predictive model was validated and calibrated internally using bootstrap resampling and externally using data from the prospective European MSA Study Group Natural History Study.

Results

A total of 210 MSA patients were included in this analysis, of which 124 patients died. The median survival was 7 years. The following clinical variables were found to significantly affect overall survival and were included in the nomogram: age at symptom onset, falls within 3 years of onset, early autonomic failure including orthostatic hypotension and urogenital failure, and lacking levodopa response. The time-dependent area under curve for internal and external validation was >0.7 within the first 7 years of the disease course. The model was well calibrated showing good overlap between predicted and actual survival probability at 7 years.

Conclusion

The nomogram is a simple tool to predict survival on an individual basis and may help to improve counseling and treatment of MSA patients.

Clinical milestones as triggers for palliative care intervention in progressive Supranuclear palsy and multiple system atrophy

not required for reviews.

Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Functional Dependence in Early Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND

Early identification of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients at risk for becoming functionally dependent is important for patient counseling. Several models describing the relationship between predictors and outcome have been reported, however, most of these require computer software for practical use.

OBJECTIVE

Here we report the development of a risk nomogram allowing an approximate graphical computation of the risk of becoming functionally dependent in early PD.

METHODS

We analyzed data form the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative cohort of newly diagnosed PD patients from baseline through the first 5 years of follow-up. Functional dependence was defined as a score < 80 on the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living scale. A binary logistic model was developed to estimate the risk of functional dependence and based on the results, a nomogram for the prediction of functional dependence was drawn in order to provide an easy-to-use tool in clinical and academic settings as a part of personalized medicine approach to PD treatment.

RESULTS

At baseline, three patients and over the five-year follow-up, 85 (22%) out of 395 patients were functionally dependent as scored by the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living rating scale. The binary logistic model showed that clinical parameters such as MDS-UPDRS I (rater part), MDS-UPDRS II, and MDS-UPDRS axial motor score were significant predictors for functional dependence within 5 years.

CONCLUSION

We here provide an easy-to-use tool to estimate the risk of functional dependence in PD patients based on the MDS-UPDRS part I, II and axial motor score.

Predicting the Prognosis of Multiple System Atrophy Using Cluster and Principal Component Analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is an intractable neurodegenerative disorder with poorly understanding of prognostic factors.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this retrospective longitudinal study was to explore the main predictors of survival of MSA patients with new clinical subtypes based on cluster analysis.

METHODS

A total of 153 Chinese MSA patients were recruited in our study. The basic demographic data and motor and nonmotor symptoms were assessed. Cluster and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to eliminate collinearity and search for new clinical subtypes. The multivariable Cox regression was used to find factors associated with survival in MSA patients.

RESULTS

The median survival time from symptom onset to death (estimated using data from all patients by Kaplan-Meier analysis) was 6.3 (95% CI = 6.1-6.7) years. The survival model showed that a shorter survival time was associated with motor principal component (PC)1 (HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.26-2.30, p < 0.001) and nonmotor PC3 (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.31-2.10, p < 0.001) through PCA. Four clusters were identified: Cluster 1 (mild), Cluster 2 (mood disorder-dominant), Cluster 3 (axial symptoms and cognitive impairment-dominant), and Cluster 4 (autonomic failure-dominant). Multivariate Cox regression indicated that Cluster 3 (HR = 4.15, 95% CI: 1.73-9.90, p = 0.001) and Cluster 4 (HR = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.73-10.1, p = 0.002) were independently associated with shorter survival time.

CONCLUSION

More serious motor symptoms, axial symptoms such as falls and dysphagia, orthostatic hypotension, and cognitive impairment were associated with poor survival in MSA via PCA and cluster analysis.

Orthostatic Hypotension in Multiple System Atrophy: Related Factors and Disease Prognosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a rare neurodegenerative disease characterized by Parkinsonism, ataxia, and autonomic nervous failure. Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is the main feature of central vascular autonomic failure in MSA.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed elucidate the effects of OH on cognitive function, disease milestones, and survival.

METHODS

A total of 444 patients with clinically established MSA were enrolled. Mild and severe OH were defined as a decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP)/diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >20/10 mmHg and SBP/DBP ≥30/15 mmHg, respectively.

RESULTS

In this study, 215 MSA patients presented without OH, 88 had mild OH, and 141 had severe OH. The proportion of MSA-C in the severe OH subgroup was significantly higher than that in the subgroup without OH (95/46 vs. 113/102, p = 0.021). The UMSARS I score and the frequency of supine hypertension (SH) in patients with OH were significantly higher than those in patients without OH (16.22 vs. 16.89 vs. 14.60, p < 0.001; 77/64 vs. 29/59 vs. 32/183, p < 0.001). Factors related to the severity of OH included sex (OR, 0.65; p = 0.031), onset age (OR, 0.98; p = 0.029), and SH (OR, 0.21; p < 0.001). The median survival time of patients with severe OH was significantly lower than that of patients without OH (6.79 vs. 8.13 years, p = 0.001). Consistently, Cox survival analysis found that compared with patients without OH, patients with severe OH had a significantly increased risk of death (OR, 2.22; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our large cohort study of MSA provides additional evidence for the negative impact of severe OH on survival.

Cystatin C predicts cognitive decline in multiple system atrophy: A 1-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence has suggested that cystatin C is associated with cognitive impairment in patients with neurodegenerative diseases. However, the association between cystatin C and cognitive decline in patients with multiple system atrophy (MSA) remains largely unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to determine whether cystatin C was independently associated with cognitive decline in patients with early-stage MSA.

METHODS

Patients with MSA underwent evaluation at baseline and the 1-year follow-up. Cognitive function was evaluated with Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA). Changes in the MoCA score and the absolute MoCA score at the 1-year assessment were considered the main cognitive outcome. The cystatin C concentrations in patients with MSA and age, sex, and body mass index matched-healthy controls (HCs) were measured. A multiple linear regression model was used to test the association between cystatin C and cognitive decline.

RESULTS

A total of 117 patients with MSA and 416 HCs were enrolled in the study. The cystatin C levels were significantly higher in patients with MSA than in HCs (p < 0.001). Cystatin C levels were negatively correlated with MoCA score at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Multiple linear regression model adjusted for potential confounders showed that baseline cystatin C levels were significantly associated with the MoCA score (p = 0.004) or change in the MoCA score (p = 0.008) at 1-year follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested that cystatin C may serve as a potential biomarker of cognitive decline in patients with early-stage MSA.

Longitudinal evolution of motor and non-motor symptoms in early-stage multiple system atrophy: a 2-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The progression of motor and non-motor symptoms (NMS) and the sensitivity of each item of the Unified Multiple System Atrophy Rating Scale (UMSARS) to change remain unclear in Chinese patients with early-stage multiple system atrophy (MSA). We investigated the evolution of motor symptoms and NMS in early-stage MSA and the sensitivity of each item included in the UMSARS to change over a 2-year follow-up.

METHODS

Motor symptoms and NMS were recorded at baseline and at 1- and 2-year follow-ups based on the UMSARS and the NMS scale. Generalized estimating equation models were used. The sensitivity of an item included in the UMSARS to change was assessed by calculating a standardized effect using the mean annual change divided by the standard deviation of the change.

RESULTS

We enrolled 246 consecutive patients with MSA and 97 MSA completed the 2-year follow-up. The mean total UMSARS score increased by 11.90 and 22.54 points at the 1- and 2-year follow-ups, respectively. UMSARS-I items associated with motor functions were more sensitive to change and those associated with autonomic dysfunction showed less sensitivity to change. Items 4 (tremor at rest), 5 (action tremor), and 3 (ocular motor dysfunction) of the UMSARS-II were less sensitive to change. The prevalence and severity of NMS significantly increased over the 2-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed significant progression in motor symptoms and NMS in patients with early-stage MSA. Our results provide useful information to support the revision of the UMSARS.

High neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts short survival in multiple system atrophy

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), an inflammatory marker, can predict the prognosis of neurodegenerative diseases. However, the significance of NLR for the prognosis of multiple system atrophy (MSA) has not been reported. We aimed to examine the prognostic significance of NLR in MSA. A total of 169 MSA patients and 163 matched healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled. MSA patients were divided into three groups according to the tertiles of their NLR. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression model were used to assessing the effect of NLR on survival. An independent validation cohort of 56 consecutive patients with probable MSA who met the inclusion criteria was included. The NLR was significantly higher in patients with MSA than that in HCs. The survival duration in patients with MSA in group 3 was shorter than that in patients in the other two groups (P = 0.013). In the multivariable Cox regression model, a higher NLR increased the risk of mortality in patients with MSA after adjusting for confounding factors (HR = 1.922, P = 0.035). Additionally, a higher NLR increased the risk of mortality in MSA with predominant cerebellar ataxia (MSA-C) (HR = 2.398, P = 0.033) and in men (HR = 3.483, P = 0.027). The concordance index for the multivariate Cox regression model was more than 0.7 both in the primary cohort and external validation cohort. Patients with MSA had a higher NLR than did HCs. A high NLR increased the risk of mortality with MSA, especially in MSA-C and in men.

The Cold Hand Sign in Multiple System Atrophy: Frequency-Associated Factors and Its Impact on Survival

Background: Few studies have focused on the cold hand sign (CHS), a red flag symptom, in multiple system atrophy (MSA).

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the frequency and correlative factors of CHS in patients with MSA and the impact of its early occurrence on the survival of these patients.

Methods: A total of 483 patients with MSA were enrolled in this study, and the motor and non-motor symptoms between patients with MSA with and without CHS were compared. Moreover, patients with disease duration ≤ 3 years at baseline were followed, and the association between CHS and survival of patients with MSA was examined.

Results: The frequencies of CHS in patients with MSA were 20, 15.4, and 25.3% in MSA, MSA-parkinsonian subtype (MSA-P), and MSA-cerebellar subtype (MSA-C), respectively. Higher Unified Multiple System Atrophy Rating Scale (UMSARS) scores and higher Non-Motor Symptom Scale (NMSS) scores at baseline were associated with CHS in MSA. CHS was associated with shorter survival after adjusting for baseline diagnosis subtype, age at onset, sex, orthostatic hypotension, disease duration, autonomic onset, UMSARS total score, and NMSS score (p = 0.001; HR = 3.701; 95% CI = 1.765–7.760).

Conclusion: CHS is not rare in patients with MSA. Greater disease severity and more severe non-motor symptoms were associated with CHS in patients with MSA. Patients with early occurrence of CHS had a poor prognosis.

Identification of predictors based on drug targets highlights accurate treatment of goserelin in breast and prostate cancer

Goserelin is an effective alternative to surgery or estrogen therapy in prostate cancer palliation, and possibly to ovariectomy in premenopausal breast cancer. However, not all users of goserelin can benefit from it, or some patients are not sensitive to goserelin. The advent of network pharmacology has highlighted the need for accurate treatment and predictive biomarkers. In this study, we successfully to identify 76 potential targets related to the compound of goserelin through network pharmacology approach. We also identified 18 DEGs in breast cancer tissues and 5 DEGs in cells, and 6 DEGs in prostate cancer tissues and 9 DEGs in cells. CRABP2 is the common DEG both in breast and prostate cancer. The risk prediction models constructed with potential prognostic targets of goserelin can successfully predict the prognosis in breast and prostate cancer, especially for very young breast cancer patients. Moreover, seven subgroups in breast cancer and six subgroups in prostate cancer were respectively identified based on consensus clustering using potential prognostic targets of goserelin that significantly influenced survival. The expression of representative genes including CORO1A and ANXA5 in breast and DPP4 in prostate showed strong correlations with clinic-pathological factors. Taken together, the novel signature can facilitate identification of new biomarkers which sensitive to goserelin, increase the using accuracy of goserelin and clarify the classification of disease molecular subtypes in breast and prostate cancer.

Clonidine GH stimulation test to differentiate MSA from idiopathic late onset cerebellar ataxia: a prospective, controlled study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the consensus criteria for multiple system atrophy (MSA), the diagnosis of MSA of cerebellar type (MSA-C) may be difficult in the early stage of the disease. There are several differential diagnoses including idiopathic late-onset cerebellar ataxias (ILOCA) and it is often necessary to wait for clinical worsening so that the criteria can be met. Our aim was to assess the efficacy of clonidine growth hormone test (CGH test) to distinguish MSA-C from ILOCA in the early stage of the disease.

METHODS

Within our cohort of late-onset sporadic, progressive cerebellar ataxia, the group of patients meeting the criteria for possible or probable MSA was compared to the ILOCA group. Clinical and paraclinical examination including CGH test were repeated during the prospective follow-up.

RESULTS

Eighty-six patients were recruited, including 42 patients in the MSA group and 44 ILOCA patients with a mean follow-up of 33 months. At the inclusion visit, CHG test was pathological for 31% MSA of patients and 18.2% of ILOCA patients (p = 0.35). During the follow-up, 52.4% of MSA-C had a pathological CGH test, while only 20.5% of ILOCA (p < 0.01). CGH test had a sensitivity of 69.1% and a specificity of 68.2%, (p < 0.001) for MSA-C patients; CGH test allows in three quarters of cases, if negative, to rule out a probable MSA-C (negative predictive value of 75%, p = 0.0014).

CONCLUSION

This prospective, controlled study showed that CGH test could be helpful in clinical practice to differentiate MSA-C from ILOCA in the early stage of the disease.

A risk prediction model of DNA methylation improves prognosis evaluation and indicates gene targets in prostate cancer

Aim: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common malignancy found in males worldwide. Although it is mostly indolent, PCa still poses a serious threat to long-term health. Materials & methods: The Cancer Genome Atlas data were randomly divided into training and validation groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression on DNA methylation data in the training group was conducted to build the model, which was validated in the validation group. Weighted correlation network analysis was conducted on RNA-seq data to identify the therapy target. Functional validation (western blot, quantitative real-time PCR, cell transfection, Cell Counting Kit-8 assay, colony formation assay, wound healing assay and transwell invasion assay) for the target was conducted. Results: The model is an independent predictor of prognosis. The knockdown of FOXD1 inhibits cell proliferation, migration and invasion of PCa. Conclusion: The risk of patients could be evaluated by the model, which revealed that FOXD1 might promote poor prognosis.