Predicting survival in colorectal carcinoma after curative resection: a new prognostic nomogram

Estimation of risk posed by malignant polyps amongst colorectal surgeons in Australia and New Zealand

PURPOSE

The estimation of the risk posed by malignant polyps for residual or lymphatic disease plays a central role. This study investigated colorectal surgeons' assessment of these risks associated with malignant polyps.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire was electronically administered to colorectal surgeons in Australia and New Zealand in October 2022. The questionnaire contained 17 questions on demographics, when surgeons consider colorectal resection appropriate, and the risk assessment for 5 hypothetical malignant polyps.

RESULTS

The mean risk of residual or lymphatic disease that would prompt surgeons to recommend colonic resection was 5%. However, this increased to a mean risk of 10% if the malignant polyp was located in the rectum, and the only resection option was abdominoperineal resection with end-colostomy. There was high concordance between the estimated risk of residual or lymphatic disease by colorectal surgeons and the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) guidelines for the 5 hypothetical malignant polyps, with the ACPGBI estimated risk lying within the 95% confidence interval for 4 of the 5 malignant polyps. Nonetheless, 96.6% of surgeons felt that an online risk calculator would improve clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

Colorectal surgeons in Australia and New Zealand accurately estimated the risk posed by malignant polyps. An online risk calculator may assist in better conveying risk to patients.

Predictive and Prognostic Assessment Models for Tumor Deposit in Colorectal Cancer Patients With No Distant Metastasis

Background

More and more evidence indicated that tumor deposit (TD) was significantly associated with local recurrence, distant metastasis (DM), and poor prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to explore the main clinical risk factors for the presence of TD in CRC patients with no DM (CRC-NDM) and the prognostic factors for TD-positive patients after surgery.

Methods

The data of patients with CRC-NDM between 2010 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors for TD presence. Fine and Gray’s competing-risk model was performed to analyze prognostic factors for TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. A predictive nomogram was constructed using the multivariate logistic regression model. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration were used to evaluate the predictive nomogram. Also, a prognostic nomogram was built based on multivariate competing-risk regression. C-index, the calibration, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were performed to validate the prognostic model.

Results

The predictive nomogram to predict the presence of TD had a C-index of 0.785 and AUC of 0.787 and 0.782 in the training and validation sets, respectively. From the competing-risk analysis, chemotherapy (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.542, p < 0.001) can significantly reduce CRC-specific death (CCSD). The prognostic nomogram for the outcome prediction in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD had a C-index of 0.727. The 5-year survival of CCSD was 17.16%, 36.20%, and 63.19% in low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups, respectively (Gray’s test, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

We constructed an easily predictive nomogram in identifying the high-risk TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. Besides, a prognostic nomogram was built to help clinicians identify poor-outcome individuals in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD. For the high-risk or medium-risk subgroup, additional chemotherapy may be more advantageous for the TD-positive patients rather than radiotherapy.