Climate change promotes species loss and uneven modification of richness patterns in the avifauna associated to Neotropical seasonally dry forests

Limited drought tolerance in the neotropical seasonally dry forest plants impairs future species richness

Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems according to global climate change predictions. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the global climate change impacts on diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of whole biome-scale approaches restricts our understanding of global climate change consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We analysed the impact of global climate change on species distribution ranges, species richness, and assemblage composition (beta diversity) for 1,178 NSDF species. We used five representative plant families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) within the NSDF: Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllaceae. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future (2040-2080), considering an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. Using a resource use scores index, we related climate-induced range contractions with species' water stress tolerance. Even under a favourable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed future significant declines across those sites where mean temperature and precipitation seasonality are expected to increase. Further, changes in species range distribution in the future correlated positively with potential use of resources in Fabaceae. Results suggest that biotic heterogenization will likely be the short-term outcome at biome scale under dispersal limitations. Nonetheless, by 2080, the prevailing effect under both dispersal assumptions will be homogenization, even within floristic nuclei. This information is critical for further defining new areas worth protecting and future planning of mitigation actions for both species and the whole biome.

Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil

Background

Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.

Methods

We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.

Results

We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

Natural forest regeneration on anthropized landscapes could overcome climate change effects on the endangered maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus, Illiger 1811)

Climate change and habitat loss have been identified as the main causes of species extinction. Forest regeneration and protected areas are essential to buffer climate change impacts and to ensure quality habitats for threatened species. We assessed the current and future environmental suitability for the maned sloth, Bradypus torquatus, under both future climate and forest restoration scenarios, using ecological niche modeling. We compared environmental suitability for two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUnorth and ESUsouth) using two climate change scenarios for 2070, and three potential forest regeneration scenarios. Likewise, we evaluated the protection degree of the suitable areas resulting from the models, according to Brazilian law: PA—Protected Areas; PPA—Permanent Protection Areas (environmentally sensitive areas in private properties); and LR—Legal Reserves (natural vegetation areas in private properties). Finally, we calculated the deficit of PPA and LR in each ESU, considering the current forest cover. Forest regeneration might mitigate the deleterious effects of climate change by maintaining and increasing environmental suitability in future scenarios. The ESUnorth contains more suitable areas (21,570 km²) than the ESUsouth (12,386 km²), with an increase in all future scenarios (up to 45,648 km² of new suitable areas), while ESUsouth might have a significant decrease (up to 7,546 km² less). Suitable areas are mostly unprotected (ESUnorth—65.5% and ESUsouth—58.3%). Therefore, PPA and PA can maintain only a small portion of current and future suitable areas. Both ESUs present a high deficit of PPA and LR, highlighting the necessity to act in the recovery of these areas to accomplish a large-scale restoration, mitigate climate change effects, and achieve, at least, a minimum forested area to safeguard the species. Notwithstanding, a long-term conservation of B. torquatus will benefit from forest regeneration besides those minimum requirements, allied to the protection of forest areas.

Amount of bird suitable areas under climate change is modulated by morphological, ecological and geographical traits

Biodiversity is already experiencing the effects of climate change through range expansion, retraction, or relocation, potentializing negative effects of other threats. Future projections already indicate richness reduction and composition modifications of bird communities due to global warming, which may disrupt the provision of key ecological services to ecosystem maintenance. Here, we systematically review the effect of morphological, ecological, and geographical traits on the amount of future suitable area for birds worldwide. Specifically, we tested whether body mass, diet, habitat type, movement pattern, range size, and biogeographic realm affect birds' suitable area. Our search returned 75 studies that modeled the effects of climate change on 1,991 bird species. Our analyses included 1,661 species belonging to 128 families, representing 83% of the total, for which we were able to acquire all the six traits. The proportion of birds' suitable area was affected by range size, body mass, habitat type, and biogeographic realm, while diet and movement pattern showed lower relative importance and were not included in our final model. Contrary to expectations, the proportion of birds' suitable area was negatively related to range size, which may be explained by higher climatic stability predicted in certain areas that harbor species with restricted distribution. In contrast, we observed that birds presenting higher body mass will show an increase of the proportion of suitable area in the future. This is expected due to the high exposure of smaller birds to environmental changes and their difficulty to keep thermoregulation. Our results also indicated a low proportion of suitable area to forest-dependent birds, which is in accordance with their higher vulnerability due to specific requirements for reproduction and feeding. Finally, the proportion of suitable area was low for birds from Oceania, which is expected since the region encompasses small islands isolated from continents, preventing their species from reaching new suitable areas. Our study highlights that different traits should be considered when assessing extinction risk of species based on future projections, helping to improve bird conservation, especially the most vulnerable to climate change.

Temporal trends in opportunistic citizen science reports across multiple taxa

Opportunistic reporting of species observations to online platforms provide one of the most extensive sources of information about the distribution and status of organisms in the wild. The lack of a clear sampling design, and changes in reporting over time, leads to challenges when analysing these data for temporal change in organisms. To better understand temporal changes in reporting, we use records submitted to an online platform in Sweden (Artportalen), currently containing 80 million records. Focussing on five taxonomic groups, fungi, plants, beetles, butterflies and birds, we decompose change in reporting into long-term and seasonal trends, and effects of weekdays, holidays and weather variables. The large surge in number of records since the launch of the, initially taxa-specific, portals is accompanied by non-trivial long-term and seasonal changes that differ between the taxonomic groups and are likely due to changes in, and differences between, the user communities and observer behaviour.