Are narrow-ranging species doomed to extinction? Projected dramatic decline in future climate suitability of two highly threatened species

Pushing the envelope: do narrowly and widely distributed Eucalyptus species differ in response to climate warming?

Contemporary climate change will push many tree species into conditions that are outside their current climate envelopes. Using the Eucalyptus genus as a model, we addressed whether species with narrower geographical distributions show constrained ability to cope with warming relative to species with wider distributions, and whether this ability differs among species from tropical and temperate climates. We grew seedlings of widely and narrowly distributed Eucalyptus species from temperate and tropical Australia in a glasshouse under two temperature regimes: the summer temperature at seed origin and +3.5°C. We measured physical traits and leaf-level gas exchange to assess warming influences on growth rates, allocation patterns, and physiological acclimation capacity. Warming generally stimulated growth, such that higher relative growth rates early in development placed seedlings on a trajectory of greater mass accumulation. The growth enhancement under warming was larger among widely than narrowly distributed species and among temperate rather than tropical provenances. The differential growth enhancement was primarily attributable to leaf area production and adjustments of specific leaf area. Our results suggest that tree species, including those with climate envelopes that will be exceeded by contemporary climate warming, possess capacity to physiologically acclimate but may have varying ability to adjust morphology.

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Conservation planning for the endemic and endangered medicinal plants under the climate change and human disturbance: a case study of Gentiana manshurica in China

Human activities and climate change have significantly impacted the quantity and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants. Gentiana manshurica Kitagawa, a high-quality original species of Gentianae Radix et Rhizoma, has significant medicinal value. However, wild resources have experienced a sharp decline due to human excavation, habitat destruction, and other factors. Consequently, it has been classified as an Endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List and is considered a third-level national key-protected medicinal material in China. The effects of climate change on G. manshurica are not yet known in the context of the severe negative impacts of climate change on most species. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of G. manshurica. In addition, land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were used to calculate habitat quality by InVEST model and landscape fragmentation by the Fragstats model. Finally, using the above-calculated results, the priority protection areas and wild tending areas of G. manshurica were planned in ZONATION software. The results show that the suitable area is mainly distributed in the central part of the Songnen Plain. Bio15, bio03, bio01, and clay content are the environmental variables affecting the distribution. In general, the future potential distribution is expected to show an increasing trend. However, the species is expected to become threatened as carbon emission scenarios and years increase gradually. At worst, the high suitability area is expected to disappear completely under SSP585-2090s. Combined with the t-test, this could be due to pressure from bio01. The migration trends of climate niche centroid are inconsistent and do not all move to higher latitudes under different carbon emission scenarios. Over the past 40 years, habitat quality in the current potential distribution has declined yearly, and natural habitat has gradually fragmented. Existing reserves protect only 9.52% of G. manshurica's priority conservation area. To avoid extinction risk and increase the practicality of the results, we clarified the hotspot counties of priority protection area gaps and wild tending areas. These results can provide an essential reference and decision basis for effectively protecting G. manshurica under climate change.

The Prospects of gene introgression from crop wild relatives into cultivated lentil for climate change mitigation

Crop wild relatives (CWRs), landraces and exotic germplasm are important sources of genetic variability, alien alleles, and useful crop traits that can help mitigate a plethora of abiotic and biotic stresses and crop yield reduction arising due to global climatic changes. In the pulse crop genus Lens, the cultivated varieties have a narrow genetic base due to recurrent selections, genetic bottleneck and linkage drag. The collection and characterization of wild Lens germplasm resources have offered new avenues for the genetic improvement and development of stress-tolerant, climate-resilient lentil varieties with sustainable yield gains to meet future food and nutritional requirements. Most of the lentil breeding traits such as high-yield, adaptation to abiotic stresses and resistance to diseases are quantitative and require the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for marker assisted selection and breeding. Advances in genetic diversity studies, genome mapping and advanced high-throughput sequencing technologies have helped identify many stress-responsive adaptive genes, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and other useful crop traits in the CWRs. The recent integration of genomics technologies with plant breeding has resulted in the generation of dense genomic linkage maps, massive global genotyping, large transcriptomic datasets, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), expressed sequence tags (ESTs) that have advanced lentil genomic research substantially and allowed for the identification of QTLs for marker-assisted selection (MAS) and breeding. Assembly of lentil and its wild species genomes (~4Gbp) opens up newer possibilities for understanding genomic architecture and evolution of this important legume crop. This review highlights the recent strides in the characterization of wild genetic resources for useful alleles, development of high-density genetic maps, high-resolution QTL mapping, genome-wide studies, MAS, genomic selections, new databases and genome assemblies in traditionally bred genus Lens for future crop improvement amidst the impending global climate change.