Herd demographics correlated with the spatial distribution of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Buenos Aires province, Argentina

An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease: A foot and mouth disease case study

Transboundary livestock diseases are a high priority for policy makers because of the serious economic burdens associated with infection. In order to make well informed preparedness and response plans, policy makers often utilize mathematical models to understand possible outcomes of different control strategies and outbreak scenarios. Many of these models focus on the transmission between herds and the overall trajectory of the outbreak. While the course of infection within herds has not been the focus of the majority of models, a thorough understanding of within-herd dynamics can provide valuable insight into a disease system by providing information on herd-level biological properties of the infection, which can be used to inform decision making in both endemic and outbreak settings and to inform larger between-herd models. In this study, we develop three stochastic simulation models to study within-herd foot and mouth disease dynamics and the implications of different empirical data-based assumptions about the timing of the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs. We also study the influence of herd size and the proportion of the herd that is initially infected on the outcome of the infection. We find that increasing herd size increases the duration of infectiousness and that the size of the herd plays a more significant role in determining this duration than the number of initially infected cattle in that herd. We also find that the assumptions made regarding the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs, which are based on contradictory empirical findings, can result in the predictions about when infection would be detectable differing by several days. Therefore, the disease progression used to characterize the course of infection in a single bovine host could have significant implications for determining when herds can be detected and subsequently controlled; the timing of which could influence the overall predicted trajectory of outbreaks.

Main factors associated with foot-and-mouth disease virus infection during the 2001 FMD epidemic in Uruguay

Large epidemics provide the opportunity to understand the epidemiology of diseases under the specific conditions of the affected population. Whilst foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics have been extensively studied in developed countries, epidemics in developing countries have been sparsely studied. Here we address this limitation by systematically studying the 2001 epidemic in Uruguay where a total of 2,057 farms were affected. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors (RF) associated with infection and spread of the virus within the country. The epidemic was divided into four periods: (1) the high-risk period (HRP) which was the period between the FMD virus introduction and detection of the index case; (2) the local control measures period (LCM) which encompassed the first control measures implemented before mass vaccination was adopted; (3) the first mass vaccination, and (4) the second mass vaccination round. A stochastic model was developed to estimate the time of initial infection for each of the affected farms. Our analyses indicated that during the HRP around 242 farms were probably already infected. In this period, a higher probability of infection was associated with: (1) animal movements [OR: 1.57 (95% CI: 1.19-2.06)]; (2) farms that combined livestock with crop production [OR: 1.93 (95% CI: 1.43-2.60)]; (3) large and medium farms compared to small farms (this difference was dependent on regional herd density); (4) the geographical location. Keeping cattle only (vs farms that kept also sheep) was a significant RF during the subsequent epidemic period (LCM), and remained as RF, together with large farms, for the entire epidemic. We further explored the RF associated with FMDV infection in farms that raised cattle by fitting another model to a data subset. We found that dairy farms had a higher probability of FMDV infection than beef farms during the HRP [OR: 1.81 (95% CI: 1.12-2.83)], and remained as RF until the end of the first round of vaccination. The delay in the detection of the index case associated with unrestricted animal movements during the HRP may have contributed to this large epidemic. This study contributes to the knowledge of FMD epidemiology in extensive production systems.

The use of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and geographic information system (GIS) methods to characterize distribution and locate spatial clusters of Borrelia burgdorferi and its vector Ixodes scapularis in Indiana

Ixodes scapularis (Say) is the vector for Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb) the causative agent of Lyme disease (LD). The increased number and presence of ticks in the environment pose a significant health risk to people and many domestic animals including dogs, cats, and horses. This study characterized the distribution and expansion of I. scapularis and Bb and identified areas of increased risk of LD transmission in Indiana using geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial analysis. A cross-sectional sampling was performed for 3 consecutive years (2005-2007). A total of 3,412 harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were searched for ticks at Department of Natural Resources manned deer check-in stations. Hunters were asked for verbal permission to search the deer and to indicate on a road atlas where the deer was killed. All deer points were digitized into a GIS database. Identification of clustering in space and time for these organisms was performed using geostatistical software. Multiple spatial clusters of I. scapularis-infested deer were identified in western Indiana. B. burgdorferi was isolated from tick pools in 11 counties. In addition to the I. scapularis clusters, one spatial cluster of Bb-infected ticks was identified. Our current survey results and cluster analysis indicate that the western geographic regions of Indiana should be considered by the healthcare community to be at increased risk of LD compared with the rest of Indiana.

Variation in the VP1 gene of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A associated with epidemiological characteristics of outbreaks in the 2001 epizootic in Argentina

A mixed binomial Bayesian regression model was used to quantify the relation between nucleotide differences in the VP1 gene of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype A, and epidemiologic characteristics of the outbreaks from which the viruses were obtained between January and December 2001 in Argentina. An increase in the probability of different nucleotides between isolates was associated with a longer time between isolation dates, a greater distance between isolation locations, an increase in the difference between attack rates, and an increase in the difference in outbreak durations. The farther apart the outbreak herds were in the southerly and easterly directions, the greater the difference in nucleotide changes. The model accurately predicted genetic distances of isolates obtained in 2001 compared with a 2002 isolate (P < 0.01), which suggested that the predictive modeling approach applied in the present study may be useful in understanding the epidemiology of evolution of FMDV and in forensic analysis of disease epidemics.

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Under Three Different Strategies of Control and Eradication in Colombia (1982–2003)

Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from January 1982 through December 2003 were used to examine variations in serotype- and species-specific risk for three control programmes in Colombia: (1982-1983) vaccination, using an aluminium hydroxide, saponin adjuvant, required but not enforced; (1984-1996) vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, required but not enforced; and (1997-2003) enforced vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, restricted animal movement enforced, and slaughter of infected animals. Hypotheses were tested for trend, cyclicity and seasonality in FMD occurrence, and for species- and serotype-specific differences in morbidity and case-fatality. The spatial density of outbreaks was estimated by kernel smoothing. The frequency of outbreaks decreased most between 1984 and 1996 (p < 0.01) for serotype A and between 1997 and 2003 (p < 0.01) for serotype O. Outbreaks occurred in cycles of 3-4 years for both serotypes (p < 0.05). Morbidity was not significantly different in pigs from that in cattle for serotype A-associated outbreaks (p = 0.314), but was higher in pigs than in cattle (p = 0.019) for serotype O-associated outbreaks. For both serotypes, case-fatality was higher for pigs than for cattle (p < 0.009). Temporal variation in FMD incidence provided insight into the expected evolution of FMD control for countries with similar conditions and where FMD is endemic.

Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data

We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P=0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25km(2) cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.

Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (RH) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and < 1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be > 1 year.