A simulation model for the study of the within-animal infection dynamics of E. coli O157

Mathematical Modeling Tools to Study Preharvest Food Safety

This article provides an overview of the emerging field of mathematical modeling in preharvest food safety. We describe the steps involved in developing mathematical models, different types of models, and their multiple applications. The introduction to modeling is followed by several sections that introduce the most common modeling approaches used in preharvest systems. We finish the chapter by outlining potential future directions for the field.

Vaccination of Cattle against Escherichia coli O157:H7

Human infection with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) is relatively rare, but the consequences can be serious, especially in the very young and the elderly. Efforts to control the flow of STEC O157 during beef processing have meaningfully reduced the incidence of human STEC O157 infection, particularly prior to 2005. Unfortunately, despite early progress, the incidence of STEC O157 infection has not changed meaningfully or statistically in recent years, suggesting that additional actions, for example, targeting the cattle reservoir, are necessary to further reduce STEC O157 illness. Ideally, preharvest interventions against STEC O157 should reduce the likelihood that cattle carry the organism, have practical application within the beef production system, and add sufficient value to the cattle to offset the cost of the intervention. A number of STEC O157 antigens are being investigated as potential vaccine targets. Some vaccine products have demonstrated efficacy to reduce the prevalence of cattle carrying STEC O157 by making the gut unfavorable to colonization. However, in conditions of natural exposure, efficacy afforded by vaccination depends on how the products are used to control environmental transmission within groups of cattle and throughout the production system. Although cattle vaccines against STEC O157 have gained either full or preliminary regulatory approval in Canada and the United States, widespread use by cattle feeders is unlikely until there is an economic signal to indicate that cattle vaccinated against STEC O157 are valued over other cattle.

A CONTINUUM MODEL OF THE WITHIN-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS OF E. COLI O157

The high level of human morbidity caused by E. coli O157:H7 necessitates an improved understanding of the infection dynamics of this bacterium within the bovine reservoir. Until recently, a degree of uncertainty surrounded the issue of whether these bacteria colonize the bovine gut and as yet, only incomplete in-vivo datasets are available. Such data typically consist of bacterial counts from fecal samples. The development of a deterministic model, which has been devised to make good use of such data, is presented. A partial differential equation, which includes advection, diffusion and growth terms, is used to model the (unobserved) passage of bacteria through the bovine gut. A set of experimentally-obtained fecal count data is used to parameterize the model. Between-animal variability is found to be greater than between-strain variability, with some results adding further weight to the hypothesis that E. coli O157:H7 can colonize the bovine gastrointestinal tract.

Insights into mucosal innate responses to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 colonization of cattle by mathematical modelling of excretion dynamics

Mathematical model-based statistical inference applied to within-host dynamics of infectious diseases can help dissect complex interactions between hosts and microbes. This work has applied advances in model-based inference to understand colonization of cattle by enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 : H7 at the terminal rectum. A mathematical model was developed based on niche replication and transition rates at this site. A nested-model comparison, applied to excretion curves from 25 calves, was used to reduce complexity while maintaining integrity. We conclude that, 5-9 days post inoculation, the innate immune response negates bacterial replication on the epithelium and either reduces attachment to or increases detachment from the epithelium of the terminal rectum. Thus, we provide a broadly applicable model that gives novel insights into bacterial replication rates in vivo and the timing and impact of host responses.

Modelling the contamination of lettuce with Escherichia coli O157:H7 from manure-amended soil and the effect of intervention strategies

AIMS

A growing number of foodborne illnesses has been associated with the consumption of fresh produce. In this study, the probability of lettuce contamination with Escherichia coli O157:H7 from manure-amended soil and the effect of intervention strategies was determined.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Pathogen prevalence and densities were modelled probabilistically through the primary production chain of lettuce (manure, manure-amended soil and lettuce). The model estimated an average of 0.34 contaminated heads per hectare. A minimum manure storage time of 30 days and a minimum fertilization-to-planting interval of 60 days was most successful in reducing the risk. Some specific organic farming practices concerning manure and soil management were found to be risk reducing.

CONCLUSIONS

Certain specific organic farming practices reduced the likelihood of contamination. This cannot be generalized to organic production as a whole. However, the conclusion is relevant for areas like the Netherlands where there is high use of manure in both organic and conventional vegetable production.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

Recent vegetable-associated disease outbreaks stress the importance of a safe vegetable production chain. The present study contributed to this by providing a first estimate of the likelihood of lettuce contamination with E. coli O157:H7 and the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies.

Modelling a national programme for the control of foodborne pathogens in livestock: the case of Salmonella Dublin in the Danish cattle industry

A 'virtual hierarchy' model is described for studying the spread of pathogens between herds of livestock. This novel approach to simulating disease has animals, herds, and geographic regions in a national livestock industry arranged as a hierarchy of objects in computer memory. Superimposed on all objects is an infection-recovery cycle, a control programme, and surveillance based on test results and animal movement. The model was applied to predicting progress in the control of Salmonella Dublin in the Danish dairy cattle industry over a 10-year period. More frequent testing of bulk tank milk for antibodies to S. Dublin was less effective than improved herd biosecurity. Restricting cattle movement between regions provided a strong benefit to those regions initially with a low prevalence of infection. Enhanced control within infected herds was of intermediate benefit. A combination of strategies was highly effective although cost and feasibility of this option needs further exploration.

Assessing the efficacy of within-animal control strategies against E. coli O157: A simulation study

A stochastic simulation model was used to assess the efficacy of potential measures to control the levels of Escherichia coli O157 within the bovine host. The model described E. coli O157 population sizes at several sites along the bovine gut and therefore only interventions that operate at an individual animal level could be evaluated. In order to use the model to evaluate the control strategies, it was necessary to make assumptions about how each strategy affected E. coli O157 populations in vivo. The within-animal conditions under these control strategies were modelled by adjusting the growth rates of E. coli O157 at specific sites of interest in the gut, based on these assumptions. The model simulated the population dynamics of an initial dose of E. coli O157 inoculated into an animal in the presence of inhibitory probiotics or antibiotics, bactericidal antibiotics or probiotics, and following fasting. Of the control strategies considered, the use of inhibitory probiotics appeared most promising and continued development of a suitable product is to be encouraged.