Risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease in Zambia, 1981–2012

A unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset for Uganda: evaluating machine learning predictive performance degradation under varying distributions

In Uganda, the absence of a unified dataset for constructing machine learning models to predict Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks hinders preparedness. Although machine learning models exhibit excellent predictive performance for Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks under stationary conditions, they are susceptible to performance degradation in non-stationary environments. Rainfall and temperature are key factors influencing these outbreaks, and their variability due to climate change can significantly impact predictive performance. This study created a unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset by integrating disparate sources and pre-processing data using mean imputation, duplicate removal, visualization, and merging techniques. To evaluate performance degradation, seven machine learning models were trained and assessed using metrics including accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, recall, precision and F1-score. The dataset showed a significant class imbalance with more non-outbreaks than outbreaks, requiring data augmentation methods. Variability in rainfall and temperature impacted predictive performance, causing notable degradation. Random Forest with borderline SMOTE was the top-performing model in a stationary environment, achieving 92% accuracy, 0.97 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.94 recall, 0.90 precision, and 0.92 F1-score. However, under varying distributions, all models exhibited significant performance degradation, with random forest accuracy dropping to 46%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to 0.58, recall to 0.03, precision to 0.24, and F1-score to 0.06. This study underscores the creation of a unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset for Uganda and reveals significant performance degradation in seven machine learning models under varying distributions. These findings highlight the need for new methods to address the impact of distribution variability on predictive performance.

Anthropogenic and environmental factors associated with koala deaths due to dog attacks and vehicle collisions in South-East Queensland, Australia, 2009-2013

Populations of the iconic Australian koala are under constant decline. Their deaths are associated with rapid and extensive urbanization and the fragmentation of habitat areas. Using citizen science data on reported koala mortalities, we quantified the association between anthropogenic and environmental factors and the two leading causes of koala deaths, dog attacks and vehicle collisions. We achieved this objective using a case-control study design to compare the odds of exposure to a given risk factor for cases (a given cause of death) with the odds of exposure to a given risk factor for controls (all other causes of death). Koala deaths due to dog attacks were positively associated with registered dog population density and negatively associated with lot density whereas koala deaths due to vehicle collisions were positively associated with road density (road length per square kilometer) and negatively associated with human population density and distance to primary and secondary roads. The results of this research can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the risk of deaths due to dog attacks, for example by conducting educational awareness programs, promoting registration of dogs and discouraging free roaming of dogs. In a similar manner, in high-risk areas for vehicle collisions, over- or underpasses can be built to facilitate safe movement of koalas for road crossings or speed limits could be introduced to reduce the likelihood of premature koala deaths due to vehicle collisions.

Factors associated with foot-and-mouth disease seroprevalence in small ruminants and identification of hot-spot areas in northern Nigeria

Many small ruminants infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remain asymptomatic, with the capacity to promote silent viral spread within domestic and wildlife species. However, little is known about the epidemiological role played by small ruminants in FMD. In particular, there are few studies that examine FMD seroprevalence, spatial patterns and risk factors for exposure in small ruminants. A cross-sectional study was conducted in northern Nigeria (Bauchi, Kaduna, and Plateau States) to determine the true seroprevalence of FMD in backyard small ruminants, identify factors associated with FMD seroconversion at animal and household levels, and identify spatial patterns for FMD virus exposure. Data on animal (n = 1800) and household (n = 300) characteristics were collected using a standardised questionnaire. Sera samples from 1800 small ruminants were tested for antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMD virus. True seroprevalence was estimated stochastically to account for variability and uncertainty in the test sensitivity and specificity previously reported. Risk factors for FMD seropositivity were identified at animal and household levels and spatial patterns were determined. The overall true seroprevalence for FMD virus, in the small ruminant population tested, was estimated to be 10.2 % (95 % Credible Interval (CrI) 0.0-19.0), while State-level estimates were 17.3 % (95 % CrI 0.0-25.8) for Kaduna, 6.9 % (95% CrI 0.0-15.8) for Bauchi, and 3.6 % (95 % CrI 0.0-12.6) for Plateau. State and species were the main risk factors identified at animal level, with interaction detected between them. Compared to goats in Plateau, the odds of testing positive were higher for goats in Bauchi (Odds Ratio (OR)= 1.83, 95 % CI 1.13-2.97, p = 0.01) and Kaduna (OR=2.97, 95 % CI 1.89-4.67, p < 0.001), as well as for sheep in Plateau (OR=3.78, 95 % CI 2.08-6.87, p < 0.001), Bauchi (OR=1.61, 95 % CI 0.91-2.84, p = 0.10), and Kaduna (OR=3.11, 95 % CI 1.61-6.01, p = 0.001). Households located in Kaduna were more likely to have a higher number of seropositive SR compared to those in Plateau (Prevalence Ratio (PR)= 1.75, 95 % CI 1.30-2.36, p < 0.001), and households keeping sheep flocks were more likely to be seropositive (from 1 to 10 sheep: PR=1.39, 95 % CI 1.05-1.82, p = 0.02; more than 10 sheep: PR=1.55, 95 % CI 1.12-2.15, p = 0.008) compared to those that did not keep sheep. A hot-spot was detected in Kaduna, and a cold-spot in Plateau. These results reveal that small ruminants had been recently exposed to FMD virus with spatial heterogeneity across the study area.

A scoping review of foot-and-mouth disease risk, based on spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of outbreaks in endemic settings

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important transboundary animal diseases affecting livestock and wildlife species worldwide. Sustained viral circulation, as evidenced by serological surveys and the recurrence of outbreaks, suggests endemic transmission cycles in some parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This is the result of a complex process in which multiple serotypes, multi-host interactions and numerous socio-epidemiological factors converge to facilitate disease introduction, survival and spread. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses have been increasingly used to explore the burden of the disease by identifying high-risk areas, analysing temporal trends and exploring the factors that contribute to the outbreaks. We systematically retrieved spatial and spatial-temporal studies on FMD outbreaks to summarize variations on their methodological approaches and identify the epidemiological factors associated with the outbreaks in endemic contexts. Fifty-one studies were included in the final review. A high proportion of papers described and visualized the outbreaks (72.5%) and 49.0% used one or more approaches to study their spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal aggregation. The epidemiological aspects commonly linked to FMD risk are broadly categorizable into themes such as (a) animal demographics and interactions, (b) spatial accessibility, (c) trade, (d) socio-economic and (e) environmental factors. The consistency of these themes across studies underlines the different pathways in which the virus is sustained in endemic areas, with the potential to exploit them to design tailored evidence based-control programmes for the local needs. There was limited data linking the socio-economics of communities and modelled FMD outbreaks, leaving a gap in the current knowledge. A thorough analysis of FMD outbreaks requires a systemic view as multiple epidemiological factors contribute to viral circulation and may improve the accuracy of disease mapping. Future studies should explore the links between socio-economic and epidemiological factors as a foundation for translating the identified opportunities into interventions to improve the outcomes of FMD surveillance and control initiatives in endemic contexts.

Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were furthermore investigated using generalized estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season, during October to December. FMD outbreaks were mostly distributed in small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repeated outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors, including the increase of subdistrict's size of the dairy population, beef population or pig population, the low percentage of forest area, subdistricts in the provinces adjacent to Malaysia, the presence of a livestock market and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month significantly increased the odds of having an FMD outbreak. The increase in proximity to the nearest subdistrict with an FMD outbreak in the previous month decreased the odds of having FMD outbreaks. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimize the FMD control programme in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

The first detection of a serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus in Namibia

This report describes the molecular characterization of a serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) recovered from a field outbreak in the Zambezi region, Namibia during July 2021. Sequence analysis demonstrates that this FMDV belongs to the O/EA-2 topotype sharing closest nucleotide identity (99.5%) to FMD viruses collected since 2018 in Zambia. This is the first detection of serotype O in Namibia, and together with the cases that have been recently detected in southern Zambia, represent the first time that this serotype has been detected in the Southern African FMD endemic pool since 2000, when a virus of Asian origin (O/ME-SA/PanAsia) caused an outbreak in South Africa. This incursion poses a new threat for the region and the potential onward spread of O/EA-2 will now need to be closely monitored since serotype O vaccines are not widely used in Namibia, nor in neighbouring countries.

Identification of diffusion routes of O/EA-3 topotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Africa and Western Asia between 1974 and 2019 - a phylogeographic analysis

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects the livestock industry and socioeconomic sustainability of many African countries. The success of FMD control programs in Africa depends largely on understanding the dynamics of FMD virus (FMDV) spread. In light of the recent outbreaks of FMD that affected the North-Western African countries in 2018 and 2019, we investigated the evolutionary phylodynamics of the causative serotype O viral strains all belonging to the East-Africa 3 topotype (O/EA-3). We analyzed a total of 489 sequences encoding the FMDV VP1 genome region generated from samples collected from 25 African and Western Asian countries between 1974 and 2019. Using Bayesian evolutionary models on genomic and epidemiological data, we inferred the routes of introduction and migration of the FMDV O/EA-3 topotype at the inter-regional scale. We inferred a mean substitution rate of 6.64 × 10^-3  nt/site/year and we predicted that the most recent common ancestor for our panel of samples circulated between February 1967 and November 1973 in Yemen, likely reflecting the epidemiological situation in under sampled cattle-exporting East African countries. Our study also reinforces the role previously described of Sudan and South Sudan as a frequent source of FMDVs spread. In particular, we identified two transboundary routes of O/EA-3 diffusion: the first from Sudan to North-East Africa, and from the latter into Israel and Palestine AT; a second from Sudan to Nigeria, Cameroon, and from there to further into West and North-West Africa. This study highlights the necessity to reinforce surveillance at an inter-regional scale in Africa and Western Asia, in particular along the identified migration routes for the implementation of efficient control measures in the fight against FMD.

Seroepidemiology of selected transboundary animal diseases in goats in Zambia

Transboundary pathogens of goats present significant constraints to the livelihoods of millions of farmers in countries such as Zambia. Consequently, this study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp), foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), Brucella spp., Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in Zambian goats. Another aim was to identify associations between seroprevalence and different predictor variables, such as trade and border proximity. From September to October 2019, 962 serum samples were collected from goats in seven Zambian districts, four of which have an international border while the remaining three do not. A questionnaire survey was conducted with each household, focusing on trade routines, management strategies and herd disease history. Animal-level seroprevalence adjusted for herd-level clustering was 8.2 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 7.5-9.0) for Mccp, 12.9% (95% CI 12.0-13.7) for FMDV, 13.0 % (95% CI 12.1-13.9) for Brucella spp., 3.3 % (95% CI 2.8-3.7) for CCHFV, and 0.4 % (95 % CI 0.3-0.7) for RVFV. The association between herd-level seroprevalence and border proximity and trade appeared negligible, with the exception of selling goats at least twice a year which was identified as a potential risk factor for Brucella spp. (OR 4.1, 95 % CI 1.1-16.0, p = 0.040). In addition, a positive association between herd-level seroprevalence of FMDV and a herd size of 21 goats or more (OR 3.3, 95 % CI 1.0-11.1, p = 0.049) was detected. Also, positive associations between animal-level seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and increasing age (OR 7.7, 95 % CI 1.5-40.7, p = 0.016), and CCHFV and keeping pigs in the household (OR 2.7, 95 % CI 1.0-7.1, p = 0.044), were found. For FMDV (OR 3.8, 95 % CI 1.4-10.9, p = 0.011) and Brucella spp. (OR 4.5, 95 % CI 1.2-17.3, p = 0.031) on the other hand, animal-level seroprevalence was significantly higher in households without pigs. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to describe the presence of antibodies for CCPP and CCHF in the Zambian goat population. While the association between seroprevalence and trade and border proximity generally appeared negligible, it is recommended that their influence is further evaluated in future studies, preferably through in-depth longitudinal studies incorporating impacts of different biosecurity measures and trade variations, linked to for example seasonality and trade peaks.

Ecological and Anthropogenic Spatial Gradients Shape Patterns of Dispersal of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Uganda

Using georeferenced phylogenetic trees, phylogeography allows researchers to elucidate interactions between environmental heterogeneities and patterns of infectious disease spread. Concordant with the increasing availability of pathogen genetic sequence data, there is a growing need for tools to test epidemiological hypotheses in this field. In this study, we apply tools traditionally used in ecology to elucidate the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Uganda. We analyze FMDV serotype O genetic sequences and their corresponding spatiotemporal metadata from a cross-sectional study of cattle. We apply step selection function (SSF) models, typically used to study wildlife habitat selection, to viral phylogenies to show that FMDV is more likely to be found in areas of low rainfall. Next, we use a novel approach, a resource gradient function (RGF) model, to elucidate characteristics of viral source and sink areas. An RGF model applied to our data reveals that areas of high cattle density and areas near livestock markets may serve as sources of FMDV dissemination in Uganda, and areas of low rainfall serve as viral sinks that experience frequent reintroductions. Our results may help to inform risk-based FMDV control strategies in Uganda. More broadly, these tools advance the phylogenetic toolkit, as they may help to uncover patterns of spread of other organisms for which genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal metadata exist.

Crossing the Line: Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Transboundary Animal Diseases Along the Tanzania-Zambia Border

Transboundary pathogens pose a threat to livelihood security in countries such as Zambia and Tanzania. This study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), sheep and goat pox virus (SGPV), Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) and Brucella spp. in sheep and goats along the Tanzania-Zambia border. Another aim was to assess the association between certain predictor variables and seroprevalence, focusing on trade and proximity to an international border, to a town and to the Tanzania-Zambia highway. During September-October 2018, 486 serum samples from small ruminants in Zambia and 491 in Tanzania were collected and analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). A questionnaire focused on management strategies was administered to each household. The animal-level seroprevalence in Zambia was 0.21% [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.01–1.14) for PPRV, 1.03% (95% CI 0.33–2.39) for FMDV, 0% (95% CI 0–0.76) for SGPV, 2.26% (95% CI 1.14–4.01) for RVFV and 1.65% (95% CI 0.71–3.22) for Brucella spp.]. In Tanzania, animal-level seroprevalence was 2.85% (95% CI 1.57–4.74) for PPRV, 16.9% (95% CI 13.7–20.5) for FMDV, 0.20% (95% CI 0.01–1.13) for SGPV, 3.26% (95% CI 1.87–5.24) for RVFV and 20.0% (95% CI 14.5–26.5) for Brucella spp. For PPRV (OR 6.83, 95% CI 1.37–34.0, p = 0.019) and FMDV (OR 5.68, 95% CI 1.58–20.3, p = 0.008), herds situated more than 30 km from an international border were more likely to be seropositive, while being located 10–30 km (OR 4.43, 95% CI 1.22–16.1 p = 0.024) from a border was identified as a risk factor for Brucella spp. For FMDV (OR 79.2, 95% CI 4.52–1388.9, p = 0.003), being situated within 30 km from a town was associated with seropositivity. Furthermore, contact with wild ruminants (OR 18.2, 95% CI 1.36–244), and the presence of sheep in the household (OR 5.20, 95% CI 1.00–26.9, p = 0.049), was associated with seropositivity for PPRV, and FMDV. No significant associations between trade or distance to the Tan-Zam highway and seroprevalence were found. We recommend that the impact of trade and proximity to borders, towns and roads should be further evaluated in larger studies, ideally incorporating aspects such as temporal trade fluctuations.

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

Background

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis.

Results

Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (parts of Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan and Guangdong), northern (parts of Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (parts of Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). Spring is the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC=0.8634).

Conclusions

These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and veterinary services can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12917-021-03084-5.

Characterization of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Viruses in Zambia-Implications for the Epidemiology of the Disease in Southern Africa

The livestock industry supports livelihood and nutritional security of at least 42% of people in the Southern African Development Community region. However, presence of animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease poses a major threat to the development of this industry. Samples collected from FMD outbreaks in Zambia during 2015–2020, comprising epithelial tissues samples (n = 47) and sera (n = 120), were analysed. FMD virus was serotyped in 26 samples, while 92 sera samples tested positive on NSP-ELISA. Phylogenetic analysis revealed notable changes in the epidemiology of FMD in Zambia, which included: (i) introduction of a novel FMDV SAT-3 (topotype II) causing FMD cases in cattle in Western Province; (ii) emergence of FMDV serotype O (topotype O/EA-2) in Central, Southern, Copperbelt, Western, Lusaka Provinces; and (iii) new outbreaks due to SAT -2 (topotypes I) in Eastern Zambia. Together, these data describe eight different epizootics that occurred in Zambia, four of which were outside the known FMD high-risk areas. This study highlights the complex epidemiology of FMD in Zambia, where the country represents an interface between East Africa (Pool 4) and Southern Africa (Pool 6). These changing viral dynamics have direct impacts on FMD vaccine selection in the SADC region.

Phylogeographic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O dispersal and associated drivers in East Africa

The continued endemicity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in East Africa has significant implications for livestock production and poverty reduction, yet its complex epidemiology in endemic settings remains poorly understood. Identifying FMDV dispersal routes and drivers of transmission is key to improved control strategies. Environmental heterogeneity and anthropogenic drivers (e.g., demand for animal products) can impact viral spread by influencing host movements. Here, we utilized FMDV serotype O VP1 genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal data in order to (i) infer the recent dispersal history, and (II) investigate the impact of external factors (cattle density, human population density, proximity to livestock markets, and drought) on dispersal velocity, location, and direction of FMDV serotype O in East Africa. We identified statistical evidence of long-distance transmission events, and we found that FMDV serotype O tends to remain circulating in areas of high cattle density, high human population density, and in close proximity to livestock markets. The latter two findings highlight the influence of anthropogenic factors on FMDV serotype O spread in this region. These findings contribute to the understanding of FMDV epidemiology in East Africa and can help guide improved control measures.

Classical Swine Fever in a Cuban Zone Intended for Eradication: Spatiotemporal Clustering and Risk Factors

Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is an endemic disease in Cuba, and an eradication strategy by zones is planned by the Official Veterinary Service. The aim of this study was to identify high-risk areas of CSF and the risk factors associated with the disease occurrence in the Pinar del Río province, one of the prioritized areas in the eradication strategy. The outbreak occurrence at district level was analyzed through a 7-year period (2009 to 2015). A high-risk cluster (RR = 5.13, 95% CI 3.49–7.56) was detected during the last 2 years of the study period in the eastern half of the province, with 38 out of 97 districts included. The rate of CSF-affected holdings had a significant increase during 2014–2015 and seems to have occurred mainly in the high-risk cluster area. Swine population density by district (heads/km²) and road length (km) by district were associated with the disease outbreak occurrence. These results provide new insights into the knowledge of the epidemiology of the disease in Cuban endemic conditions and can contribute to improving the control and the eradication strategy in this situation.

Spatial distribution and risk factors for foot and mouth disease virus in Uganda: Opportunities for strategic surveillance

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has a substantial impact on cattle populations in Uganda, causing short- and long-term production losses and hampering local and international trade. Although FMDV has persisted in Uganda for at least 60 years, its epidemiology there and in other endemic settings remains poorly understood. Here, we utilized a large-scale cross-sectional study of cattle to elucidate the dynamics of FMDV spread in Uganda. Sera samples (n = 14,439) from 211 herds were analyzed for non-structural protein reactivity, an indication of past FMDV exposure. Serological results were used to determine spatial patterns, and a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model was used to identify risk factors for FMDV infection. Spatial clustering of the disease was evident, with higher risk demonstrated near international borders. Additionally, high cattle density, low annual rainfall, and pastoralism were associated with increased likelihood of FMD seropositivity. These results provide insights into the complex epidemiology of FMDV in Uganda and will help inform refined control strategies in Uganda and other FMDV-endemic settings.

Evaluating the utility of national-scale data to estimate the local risk of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions

Knowledge of the distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is required if control programmes are to be successful. However, data on the seroprevalence and incidence of affected villages in developing countries with endemic disease are scarce. This is partly due to resource constraints as well as the logistical challenges of conducting intensive surveys and diagnostic testing in remote locations. In this study, we evaluated the performance of low resolution national-scale data against high resolution local survey data to predict the FMD serological status of 168 villages in the Mandalay and Sagaing Regions of central Myanmar using both logistic regression and random forest modelling approaches. Blood samples for ELISA testing were collected from approximately 30 cattle per village in both the 6 to 18 month age range and in the over 18 month age range to distinguish between recent and historical exposure, respectively. The results of the animal level tests were aggregated to the village level to provide the outcome of interest (village positive or not positive for FMD), and three explanatory data sets were constructed: using only nationally available data, using only data collected by survey and using the combined survey and nationally available data. The true seroprevalence of FMD at the village level was 61% when only young animals were included, but increased to 87% when all animals were included. The best performing model was a logistic regression model using the combined national and survey data to predict recent infection in villages. However, this still incorrectly classified 40% of villages, which suggests that using national-level data were not reliable enough for extrapolating seroprevalence in regions where conducting detailed surveys is impractical. Other methods for collected data on FMD such as the use of local reporting should be explored.

Knowledge and risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease among small-scale dairy farmers in an endemic setting

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals. In Kenya, the disease is endemic with outbreaks typically occurring throughout the year. A cross-sectional study was undertaken in Nakuru County to investigate farmer knowledge and risk factors for clinical disease. Semi-structured interviews were conducted on 220 smallholder farmers, selected using random spatial sampling. The majority of respondents (207/220 [94.1%]) knew of FMD and 166/207 (80.2%) of them could correctly identify the disease based on their knowledge of the clinical signs. Forty-five out of 220 farmers (20.4%) vaccinated their livestock against FMD in the previous 6 months, although of those who knew of FMD only 96/207 (46.4%) perceived it as a preventive measure undertaken to reduce the risk of disease in their farm. FMD had occurred in 5.9% of the surveyed farms within the previous 6 months (from May to November 2016). Using multivariate analysis, the use of a shared bull (OR = 9.7; p = 0.014) and the number of sheep owned (for each additional sheep owned OR = 1.1; p = 0.066) were associated with an increased likelihood of a farm experiencing a case of FMD in the previous 6 months, although the evidence for the latter was weak. This study reports risk factors associated with clinical FMD at the farm level in a densely populated smallholder farming area of Kenya. These results can be used to inform the development of risk-based strategic plans for FMD control and as a baseline for evaluating interventions and control strategies.

Spatial analysis of lumpy skin disease in Eurasia-Predicting areas at risk for further spread within the region

Data from affected lumpy skin disease (LSD) locations between July 2012 and September 2018 in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Middle East were retrieved from FAO's Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) from the European Commission's Animal Disease Notification System (ADNS) and completed with data from the official veterinary services of some countries. During this period, a total of 7,593 locations from 22 countries were affected. Within this period, over 46,000 cattle were clinically affected by LSD, 3,700 animals died and 17,500 were slaughtered due to culling policies to stop the spread of the disease. Most outbreaks occurred in 2016, between the months of May and November. The affected region was divided into a grid of 10 × 10 km cells and we fit a spatial regression model to analyse the association between the reported LSD outbreaks and climatic variables, land cover, and cattle density. The results showed big differences in the odds of being LSD positive due to the type of land cover: the odds of a cell being LSD positive was increased in areas mostly covered with croplands, grassland, or shrubland. The odds was also increased for higher cattle density, as well as areas with higher annual mean temperature and higher temperature diurnal range. The resulting model was utilized to predict the LSD risk in neighbouring unaffected areas in Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, identifying several areas with high risk of spread. Results from this study provide useful information for the design of surveillance and awareness systems, and preventive measures, e.g., vaccination programmes.

Review of epidemiological risk models for foot-and-mouth disease: Implications for prevention strategies with a focus on Africa

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious transboundary disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animal species. The aim of this review was to identify and critically assess some modelling techniques for FMD that are well supported by scientific evidence from the literature with a focus on their use in African countries where the disease remains enzootic. In particular, this study attempted to provide a synopsis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of these models and their relevance to FMD prevention policies. A literature search was conducted to identify quantitative and qualitative risk assessments for FMD, including studies that describe FMD risk factor modelling and spatiotemporal analysis. A description of retrieved papers and a critical assessment of the modelling methods, main findings and their limitations were performed. Different types of models have been used depending on the purpose of the study and the nature of available data. The most frequently identified factors associated with the risk of FMD occurrence were the movement (especially uncontrolled animal movement) and the mixing of animals around water and grazing points. Based on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment studies, the critical pathway analysis showed that the overall risk of FMDV entering a given country is low. However, in some cases, this risk can be elevated, especially when illegal importation of meat and the movement of terrestrial livestock are involved. Depending on the approach used, these studies highlight shortcomings associated with the application of models and the lack of reliable data from endemic settings. Therefore, the development and application of specific models for use in FMD endemic countries including Africa is encouraged.

Prevalence and risk factors for foot and mouth disease infection in cattle in Israel

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease with major economic consequences. In Israel, FMD epidemics recur almost every year and mostly affect cattle. The highest number of outbreaks occurs among beef cattle farms, followed by feedlot farms and dairy farms. We performed several cross-sectional serological studies in Israel during 2006-2014, aimed to reveal if the virus is endemic among cattle and to determine the sero-prevalence of antibodies directed against non-structural proteins (NSP) of FMD virus. Additionally we aimed to determine the risk factors for such sero-positivity. A risk based sampling was performed and the presence of anti-NSP antibodies was estimated using the PrioCHECK(®) ELISA kit. Beef cattle showed the highest sero-prevalence (13.2%, CI95%=10.8-15.8%). Higher FMD sero-prevalence in beef cattle sampled in 2014 was associated with previous FMD outbreaks in the farm and with age (adult cows versus calves (p<0.05)). Sero-prevalence in feedlot calves was significantly lower with only one sero-positive calf out of 256 (0.4%, CI95%=0-2.2%). Sero-prevalence among dairy cattle was 2.7% (CI95%=2-3.6%) with location of up to 3km from FMD outbreaks in multiple farms and location of up to 5km from the nearest border standing out as significant (p<0.05) risk factors for sero-positivity. The extremely low sero-prevalence of FMD in feedlot cattle and the significant association of infection in beef cattle with previous outbreaks suggest absence of virus circulation between these two populations during the study period, although previous data show that during outbreaks such transmission can occur. Low sero-prevalence in dairy cattle located in areas adjacent to previous FMD outbreaks may be attributed to intense routine vaccination and stringent control measures that were applied during outbreaks such as emergency vaccination and strict quarantine. Early detection of FMD outbreaks among grazing beef herds as well as the implementation of control measures among these farms are therefore the methods of choice to prevent future outbreaks in Israel.