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Abstract
Spatial documentation is exponentially increasing given the availability of Big Data in the Internet of Things, enabled by device miniaturization and data storage capacity. Bayesian spatial statistics is a useful statistical tool to determine the dependence structure and hidden patterns in space through prior knowledge and data likelihood. However, this class of modeling is not yet well explored when compared to adopting classification and regression in machine-learning models, in which the assumption of the spatiotemporal independence of the data is often made, that is an inexistent or very weak dependence. Thus, this systematic review aims to address the main models presented in the literature over the past 20 years, identifying the gaps and research opportunities. Elements such as random fields, spatial domains, prior specification, the covariance function, and numerical approximations are discussed. This work explores the two subclasses of spatial smoothing: global and local.
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Picasso-Risso C, Alvarez J, VanderWaal K, Kinsley A, Gil A, Wells SJ, Perez A. Modelling the effect of test-and-slaughter strategies to control bovine tuberculosis in endemic high prevalence herds. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:1205-1215. [PMID: 32767833 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) prevalence substantially increased over the past two decades with relatively high impact on large dairy herds, raising the concern of regulatory authorities and industry stakeholders, and threatening animal and public health. Lack of resources, together with the economic and social consequences of whole-herd stamping-out, makes depopulation an impractical disease control alternative in these herds. The increase in bTB prevalence was associated with demographic and management changes in the dairy industry in Uruguay, reducing the efficacy of the current control programme (i.e. status quo) based on intradermal serial testing with caudal fold- and comparative-cervical tuberculin test-and-slaughter of reactors (CFT-CCT). Here, we aimed to assess the epidemiological effectiveness of six alternative control scenarios based on test-and-slaughter of positive animals, using mathematical modelling to infer bTB-within-herd dynamics. We simulated six alternative control strategies consisting of testing adult cattle (>1 year) in the herd every 3 months using one test (in vivo or in vitro) or a combination in parallel of two tests (CFT, interferon-gamma release assay-IGRA- or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Results showed no significant differences overall in the time needed to reach bTB eradication (median ranging between 61 and 82 months) or official bovine tuberculosis-free status (two consecutive negative herd tests) between any of the alternative strategies and the status quo (median ranging between 50 and 59 months). However, we demonstrate how alternative strategies can significantly reduce bTB prevalence when applied for restricted periods (6, 12 or 24 months), and in the case of IGRAc (IGRA using peptide-cocktail antigens), without incurring on higher unnecessary slaughter of animals (false positives) than the status quo in the first 6 months of the programme (p-value < .05). Enhanced understanding bTB-within-herd dynamics with the application of different control strategies help to identify optimal strategies to ultimately improve bTB control and bTB eradication from dairies in Uruguay and similar endemic settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catalina Picasso-Risso
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA.,Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Julio Alvarez
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain.,Departamento de Sanidad Animal, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Kimberly VanderWaal
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Amy Kinsley
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Andres Gil
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Scott J Wells
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Andres Perez
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA
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Yahyaoui Azami H, Ducrotoy MJ, Bouslikhane M, Hattendorf J, Thrusfield M, Conde- Álvarez R, Moriyón I, Zúñiga-Ripa A, Muñoz Álvaro PM, Mick V, Bryssinckx W, Welburn SC, Zinsstag J. The prevalence of brucellosis and bovine tuberculosis in ruminants in Sidi Kacem Province, Morocco. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0203360. [PMID: 30226847 PMCID: PMC6143194 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0203360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2017] [Accepted: 08/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) and brucellosis are major endemic zoonoses in ruminants in Morocco that impact on both animal and human health. This study presents an assessment of the epidemiological and socioeconomic burden of bacterial zoonoses in Sidi Kacem Province in Northern Morocco from a cross-sectional survey of 125 cattle and/or small ruminant-owning households. In total, 1082 sheep and goats were examined from 81 households. The single intradermal comparative cervical test to screen for bovine tuberculosis was undertaken on 1194 cattle from 123 households and all cattle were blood sampled. Cattle and small ruminant sera were tested for brucellosis using the standard Rose Bengal Test (sRBT) and the modified Rose Bengal Test (mRBT). Bacteriology was performed on 21 milk samples obtained from cattle that were seropositive for brucellosis for isolation and phenotyping of circulating Brucella strains. Individual and herd prevalence for BTB in cattle of 20.4% (95% CI 18%-23%) and 57.7% (95% CI 48%-66%), respectively, were observed in this study. The prevalence of brucellosis in cattle at individual and herd level was 1.9% (95% CI 1.2%-2.8%) and 9% (95% CI 4.5%-1.5%), respectively. Brucella pathogens were isolated from three cattle milk samples and were identified as B. abortus using Bruceladder® multiplex PCR and B. abortus biovar 1 by classical phenotyping. All small ruminants were seronegative to sRBT, two were positive to mRBT. A higher risk of BTB and brucellosis was observed in cattle in intensive livestock systems, in imported and crossed breeds and in animals from larger herds (>15). The three risk factors were usually present in the same herds, leading to higher transmission risk and persistence of both zoonoses. These results highlight the importance of implementing control strategies for both BTB and brucellosis to reduce productivity losses and the risk of transmission to humans. Prioritising control for BTB and brucellosis in intensive livestock production systems is essential for human and animal health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hind Yahyaoui Azami
- Department of Veterinary Pathology and Public Health, Agronomic and Veterinary Institute Hassan II, Rabat, Maroc
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Marie J. Ducrotoy
- Division of Infection and Pathway Medicine, Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Mohammed Bouslikhane
- Department of Veterinary Pathology and Public Health, Agronomic and Veterinary Institute Hassan II, Rabat, Maroc
| | - Jan Hattendorf
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Mike Thrusfield
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Veterinary Centre, Roslin, Midlothian, United Kingdom
| | - Raquel Conde- Álvarez
- IDISNA - Instituto de Salud Tropical y Depto. Microbiología y Parasitología, Universidad de Navarra, Edificio de Investigación, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Ignacio Moriyón
- IDISNA - Instituto de Salud Tropical y Depto. Microbiología y Parasitología, Universidad de Navarra, Edificio de Investigación, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Amaia Zúñiga-Ripa
- IDISNA - Instituto de Salud Tropical y Depto. Microbiología y Parasitología, Universidad de Navarra, Edificio de Investigación, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Pilar M. Muñoz Álvaro
- Unidad de Producción y Sanidad Animal, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón– IA2 - (CITA-Universidad de Zaragoza), Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Virginie Mick
- Paris-Est University/Anses, EU/OIE/FAO & National Reference Laboratory for brucellosis, Animal Health Laboratory, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | | | - Sue C. Welburn
- Division of Infection and Pathway Medicine, Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Jakob Zinsstag
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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