Spatio-temporal and risk factor analysis of alleles related to Scrapie resistance in sheep in Great Britain before, during and after a national breeding program

Genetic Polymorphism at 15 Codons of the Prion Protein Gene in 156 Goats from Romania

Background: The variability of prion protein gene (PRNP) codons and the frequency of alleles (K222, D146, and S146) that appear to confer genetic resistance to classical scrapie are still unknown in several goat populations/breeds prevalent in Romania. This work aims to assess the genetic polymorphism at 15 PRNP codons in Romanian goat populations to inform the development of goat breeding programs for scrapie resistance. Methods: Whole blood and hair follicles from Carpathian (50), French Alpine (53), and Banat’s White (53) breed goats were sampled to extract genomic DNA for genetic analyses and Sanger sequencing. In the targeted goat groups, one classical scrapie-positive Banat’s White goat was included. Results: The codons without polymorphisms were G37G, W102W, N146N, R151R, S173S, and I218I. The following non-synonymous polymorphisms of PRNP were recorded: P110P, P110S, P110T, T110T, G127G, G127S, I142I, I142M, T142I, H143H, P143P, R143R, R154R, H154R, P168P, Q168Q, Q211Q, Q211R, Q222Q, H222Q, K222K, S240S, P240P, P240S, and S240P. Conclusions: PRNP polymorphism was recorded in 60% (9/15) of codons. The scrapie-positive Banat’s White goat had G37G, W102W, T110T, G127G, I142I, H143H, N146N, R151R, R154R, P168P, S173S, R211R, I218I, Q222Q, and S240S. The K222 allele had a frequency of 6% (3/50) in Carpathian, 9.43% (5/53) in Banat’s White, and 15.09% (8/53) in French Alpine. Therefore, the polymorphisms detected in this sample of Romanian goat breeds are too rare to design a breeding program at the current time.

Will there be any more classical scrapie cases in sheep in Great Britain? A modelling study to predict future cases

The aim of this study was to apply a back-calculation model to Great Britain (GB) classical scrapie surveillance data, and use this model to estimate how many more cases might be expected, and over what time frame these cases might occur. A back-calculation model was applied to scrapie surveillance data between 2005 and 2019 to estimate the annual rate of decline of classical scrapie. This rate was then extrapolated to predict the number of future cases each year going forward. The model shows that there may be yet further cases of classical scrapie in GB. These will most likely occur in the fallen stock scheme, with approximately a 25% probability of at least 1 further scrapie positive, with a very low probability (~0.2%) of having up to three additional scrapie positives. This highlights the difficulty of completely eliminating all further cases, even in the presence of very effective control measures.