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Acosta A, Dietze K, Baquero O, Osowski GV, Imbacuan C, Burbano A, Ferreira F, Depner K. Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador. Viruses 2023; 15:288. [PMID: 36851503 PMCID: PMC9966056 DOI: 10.3390/v15020288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important re-emergent swine diseases worldwide. Despite concerted control efforts in the Andean countries, the disease remains endemic in several areas, limiting production and trade opportunities. In this study, we aimed to determine the risk factors and spatiotemporal implications associated with CSF in Ecuador. We analysed passive surveillance and vaccination campaign datasets from 2014 to 2020; Then, we structured a herd-level case-control study using a logistic and spatiotemporal Bayesian model. The results showed that the risk factors that increased the odds of CSF occurrence were the following: swill feeding (OR 8.53), time until notification (OR 2.44), introduction of new pigs during last month (OR 2.01) and lack of vaccination against CSF (OR 1.82). The spatiotemporal model showed that vaccination reduces the risk by 33%. According to the priority index, the intervention should focus on Morona Santiago and Los Rios provinces. In conclusion, the results highlight the complexity of the CSF control programs, the importance to improve the overall surveillance system and the need to inform decision-makers and stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alfredo Acosta
- Institute of International Animal Health/One Health, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, 17493 Greifswald, Germany
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-270, Brazil
| | - Klaas Dietze
- Institute of International Animal Health/One Health, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, 17493 Greifswald, Germany
| | - Oswaldo Baquero
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-270, Brazil
| | - Germana Vizzotto Osowski
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-270, Brazil
| | - Christian Imbacuan
- General Coordination of Animal Health, Phyto-Zoosanitary Regulation and Control Agency, Quito 170903, Ecuador
| | - Alexandra Burbano
- General Coordination of Animal Health, Phyto-Zoosanitary Regulation and Control Agency, Quito 170903, Ecuador
| | - Fernando Ferreira
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-270, Brazil
| | - Klaus Depner
- Institute of International Animal Health/One Health, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, 17493 Greifswald, Germany
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Acosta AJ, Cespedes N, Pisuna LM, Galvis JO, Vinueza RL, Vasquez KS, Grisi-Filho JH, Amaku M, Gonçalves VS, Ferreira F. Network analysis of pig movements in Ecuador: Strengthening surveillance of classical swine fever. Transbound Emerg Dis 2022; 69:e2898-e2912. [PMID: 35737848 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The analysis of domestic pig movements has become useful to understand the disease spread patterns and epidemiology, which facilitates the development of more effective animal diseases control strategies. The aim of this work was to analyse the static and spatial characteristics of the pig network, to identify its trading communities and to study the contribution of the network to the transmission of classical swine fever. In this regard, we used the pig movement records from the National veterinary service of Ecuador (2017-2019), using social network analysis and spatial analysis to construct a network with registered premises as nodes and their movements as edges. Furthermore, we also created a network of parishes as its nodes by aggregating their premises movements as edges. The annual network metrics showed an average diameter of 20.33, a number of neighbours of 2.61, a shortest path length of 4.39 and a clustering coefficient of 0.38 (small-world structure). The most frequent movements were to or from markets (55%). Backyard producers made up 89% of the network premises, and the top 2% of parishes (highest degree) contributed to 50% of the movements. The highest frequencies of movements between parishes were in the centre of the country, while the highest frequency of movements to abattoirs was in the south-west. Finally, the pattern of CSF disease outbreaks within the Ecuador network was likely the result of network transmission processes. In conclusion, our results represented the first exploratory analysis of domestic pig movements at premise and parish levels. The surveillance system could consider these results to improve its procedures and update the disease control and management policy, and allow the implementation of targeted or risk-based surveillance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alfredo Javier Acosta
- Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department. School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nicolas Cespedes
- Population Health and Pathobiology Department. College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA
| | - Luis Miguel Pisuna
- General coordination of animal health, Phytozoosanitary Regulation and Control Agency, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Jason Onell Galvis
- Population Health and Pathobiology Department. College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA
| | - Rommel Lenin Vinueza
- Veterinary Medicine School. College of health sciences, San Francisco de Quito University, Quito, Ecuador.,Social medicine and global challenges Institute. College of health sciences, San Francisco de Quito University, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Kleber Stalin Vasquez
- General coordination of animal health, Phytozoosanitary Regulation and Control Agency, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Jose Henrique Grisi-Filho
- Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department. School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Marcos Amaku
- Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department. School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Fernando Ferreira
- Preventive Veterinary Medicine Department. School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
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