Modeling the transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in Amhara region, Ethiopia

Temporal and Spatial Patterns and a Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2010 to 2019

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an endemic disease in Ethiopia, although space-time cluster and monthly variation studies have never been assessed at national level. The current study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Ethiopia from national outbreak reports over a period of ten years from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019. To this end, a total of 376,762 cases and 1302 outbreaks from 704 districts were obtained from the Minister of Agriculture for analyses. In general, the dry periods, i.e., October to March, of the year were recorded as the peak outbreak periods, with the highest prevalence in March 2012. The monthly average and the outbreak trends over ten years show a decrease of outbreaks from 2010 to 2019. Decomposing the FMD outbreak data time series showed that once an outbreak erupted, it continued for up to five years. Only 12% of the reported outbreaks were assigned to a specific serotype. Within these outbreaks, the serotypes O, A, SAT-2, and SAT-1 were identified in decreasing order of prevalence, respectively. When a window of 50% for the maximum temporal/space cluster size was set, a total of seven FMD clusters were identified in space and time. The primary cluster with a radius of 380.95 km was identified in the southern part of Ethiopia, with a likelihood ratio of 7.67 (observed/expected cases). The third cluster, with a radius of 144.14 km, was identified in the northeastern part of the country, and had a likelihood ratio of 5.66. Clusters 1 and 3 occurred from January 2017 to December 2019. The second cluster that occurred had a radius of 294.82 km, a likelihood ratio of 6.20, and was located in the central and western parts of Ethiopia. The sixth cluster, with a radius of 36.04 km and a likelihood ratio of 20.60, was set in southern Tigray, bordering Afar. Clusters 2 and 6 occurred in the same period, from January 2014 to December 2016. The fourth cluster in northern Tigray had a calculated radius of 95.50 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.17. The seventh cluster occurred in the north-central Amhara region, with a radius of 97 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.16. Clusters 4 and 7 occurred between January 2010 and December 2013. The spatiotemporal and cluster analysis of the FMD outbreaks identified in the context of the current study are crucial in implementing control, prevention, and a prophylactic vaccination schedule. This study pointed out October to March as well as the main time of the year during which FMD outbreaks occur. The area that extends from the south to north, following the central highlands, is the main FMD outbreak area in Ethiopia.

Spatial and temporal distribution of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia in the period 1999 to 2016

Background

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important trans-boundary viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. It is caused by FMD virus, which belongs to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae. FMD is a well-established endemic disease in Ethiopia since it was first detected in 1957. This retrospective study was carried out to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia using 18 years (January 1999–December 2016) reported outbreak data.

Results

A total of 636 FMD outbreaks were reported in Amhara region of Ethiopia between 1999 and 2016 with an average and median of 35 and 13 outbreaks per year respectively. In this period, FMD was reported at least once in 58.5% of the districts (n = 79) and in all administrative zones of the region (n = 10). The average district level incidence of FMD outbreaks was 4.68 per 18 years (0.26 per district year). It recurs in a district as epidemic, on average in 5.86 years period. The incidence differed between administrative zones, being the lowest in East Gojjam and highest in North Shewa. The occurrence of FMD outbreaks was found to be seasonal with peak outbreaks in March and a low in August. The long-term trend of FMD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant (p < 0.001) decrease over the study period.

Conclusion

FMD occurred in all zones of the region and showed statistically significant decrease in the long-term trend. Numbers of outbreaks were relatively higher during dry season. The spatial and temporal distribution identified in this study should be considered in controlling the disease. As unregulated and frequent animal movements are the likely causes of high outbreak occurrence during the dry season, animal movement regulations should be considered for the long-term control of FMD.