Is there an association between road building and bovine tuberculosis herd risk? A three time-point study in Ireland, 2011-2019

An epidemiological investigation into the reasons for high bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds of the Burren, Ireland, prior to 2020

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence was examined in the Burren, an area in the west of Ireland where herd owners practice distinctive transhumance practices, with upland winter grazing. Prior to the initiation of our study in 2020, bTB incidence had for many years been unusually high in the Burren in comparison with the rest of the country, although the most recent figures have come down to being closer to the national average. Using data from the period prior to 2020, we mapped bTB infection in Burren herds alongside a range of indicators thought to have an association with it - herd size, herd density, herd type, cattle movement, and badger (Meles meles) population and control data, as well as rainfall and altitude. We also looked at how summary statistics for these variables differed when Burren herds with a history of bTB were compared to other Burren herds, as well as bTB positive and negative herds from outside the Burren. We found that for many indicators Burren herds would be expected to be low risk when compared to other herds in Ireland. An exception to this was for rainfall: hot spot areas for bTB in the Burren were found in areas of higher rainfall, on average herds in the Burren experienced more rainfall than those outside it, and bTB herds in the Burren experienced higher rainfall than non-bTB herds. Separately, for Burren herds only, a logistic regression model was developed to explain bTB breakdown occurrence using a matched case-control approach. Cases were herds which had experienced a new bTB breakdown between 2015 and 2019 (n = 260) and these were matched on herd type and herd size with the same number of herds not experiencing a breakdown during this period. This showed that, of a range of exogenous variables, rainfall was the most strongly associated with herd-level bTB incidence. These results suggest that high levels of exposure to inclement weather, and/or better environmental survival of Mycobacterium bovis in the environment, may contribute to high bTB rates in the Burren. However, as rainfall showed a highly aggregated distribution, this relationship may be due to an unmeasured factor correlated with it. Mapping and graphical output suggested that, although herd sizes in the Burren were on average lower than nationally, within the Burren they were higher in areas of higher prevalence, suggesting that mechanisms associated with herd size, such as increased contacts between and within herd, and with wildlife, may also play a role.

Private veterinarians' views of the Irish bovine TB eradication programme

There is limited understanding of Private Veterinary Practitioners' (PVPs) perceptions of, opinions about and attitudes towards the Irish Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) eradication programme. Understanding their attitudes and behaviors towards the bTB eradication programme is both timely and crucial as their actions have a great influence on the effectiveness and sustainability of the programme itself. To date, PVPs have been consulted about how they view their role in the programme, however, less is known about the challenges they face in carrying out good quality bTB testing, and how likely they feel the programme will succeed to eradicate bTB in the future. The results from this study represent a good part of the probable sphere of perceptions, behaviors, attitudes and knowledge of the respective study population and several key critical points that are believed to have hindered the success of the bTB eradication programme in Ireland to date. This study progressed our understanding of the reasons for why farmers are demotivated by and disconnected with the Irish bTB eradication programme according to PVPs, how PVPs feel challenged in their role carrying out bTB testing, and their views on how, if possible, bTB can be eradicated in the future. Their insights will influence how the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) interacts with PVPs and farmers in the future with respect to the bTB and the eradication programme.

A scoping review on bovine tuberculosis highlights the need for novel data streams and analytical approaches to curb zoonotic diseases

Zoonotic diseases represent a significant societal challenge in terms of their health and economic impacts. One Health approaches to managing zoonotic diseases are becoming more prevalent, but require novel thinking, tools and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one example of a costly One Health challenge with a complex epidemiology involving humans, domestic animals, wildlife and environmental factors, which require sophisticated collaborative approaches. We undertook a scoping review of multi-host bTB epidemiology to identify trends in species publication focus, methodologies, and One Health approaches. We aimed to identify knowledge gaps where novel research could provide insights to inform control policy, for bTB and other zoonoses. The review included 532 articles. We found different levels of research attention across episystems, with a significant proportion of the literature focusing on the badger-cattle-TB episystem, with far less attention given to tropical multi-host episystems. We found a limited number of studies focusing on management solutions and their efficacy, with very few studies looking at modelling exit strategies. Only a small number of studies looked at the effect of human disturbances on the spread of bTB involving wildlife hosts. Most of the studies we reviewed focused on the effect of badger vaccination and culling on bTB dynamics with few looking at how roads, human perturbations and habitat change may affect wildlife movement and disease spread. Finally, we observed a lack of studies considering the effect of weather variables on bTB spread, which is particularly relevant when studying zoonoses under climate change scenarios. Significant technological and methodological advances have been applied to bTB episystems, providing explicit insights into its spread and maintenance across populations. We identified a prominent bias towards certain species and locations. Generating more high-quality empirical data on wildlife host distribution and abundance, high-resolution individual behaviours and greater use of mathematical models and simulations are key areas for future research. Integrating data sources across disciplines, and a "virtuous cycle" of well-designed empirical data collection linked with mathematical and simulation modelling could provide additional gains for policy-makers and managers, enabling optimised bTB management with broader insights for other zoonoses.

The Irish bTB eradication programme: combining stakeholder engagement and research-driven policy to tackle bovine tuberculosis

A new Irish bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication strategy was launched in 2021. The strategy was formulated following extensive discussions with stakeholders, formal reviews of several aspects of the existing bTB policy and relevant inputs from the latest scientific research projects. A stakeholder discussion body, the TB Forum, had been established in 2018 and this continues under the new strategy, supported by three working groups (scientific, financial and implementation). The strategy sets out actions to address cattle-to-cattle and badger-to-cattle bTB transmission, along with actions to improve farm biosecurity and empower farmers to make their own choices to reduce bTB risk.Large scale vaccination of badgers has been rolled out under the new strategy, with over 20,000 km2 covered by the vaccination programme and 6,586 badgers captured in vaccination areas in 2021. Vaccination efforts have been complemented by intensive communications campaigns, including a web enabled software application ("app") enabling farmers to report the location of badger setts.Cattle which test inconclusive to the tuberculin skin test have been re-tested using a gamma interferon blood test since April 2021, enabling truly infected cattle to be identified more effectively due to the higher sensitivity of this test. An enhanced oversight process has been put in place for herds experiencing extended or repeat bTB breakdowns. Whole genome sequencing is being used to investigate links between breakdowns, with the results supporting operational decision making in case management.Communications, including biosecurity advice, are co-designed with stakeholders, in order to improve their effectiveness. A programme involving veterinary practitioners providing tailored biosecurity bTB advice to their clients was established in 2021 and was rolled out nationally during 2022.A core element of the new strategy is the continual improvement of policies in response to changing bTB risks, informed by scientific research and then implemented with stakeholder consultation.

Disturbance Ecology Meets Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) Epidemiology: A Before-and-After Study on the Association between Forest Clearfelling and bTB Herd Risk in Cattle Herds

Disturbance ecology refers to the study of discrete processes that disrupt the structure or dynamics of an ecosystem. Such processes can, therefore, affect wildlife species ecology, including those that are important pathogen hosts. We report on an observational before-and-after study on the association between forest clearfelling and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd risk in cattle herds, an episystem where badgers (Meles meles) are the primary wildlife spillover host. The study design compared herd bTB breakdown risk for a period of 1 year prior to and after exposure to clearfelling across Ireland at sites cut in 2015-2017. The percent of herds positive rose from 3.47% prior to clearfelling to 4.08% after exposure. After controlling for confounders (e.g., herd size, herd type), we found that cattle herds significantly increased their odds of experiencing a bTB breakdown by 1.2-times (95%CIs: 1.07-1.36) up to 1 year after a clearfell risk period. Disturbance ecology of wildlife reservoirs is an understudied area with regards to shared endemic pathogens. Epidemiological observational studies are the first step in building an evidence base to assess the impact of such disturbance events; however, such studies are limited in inferring the mechanism for any changes in risk observed. The current cohort study suggested an association between clearfelling and bTB risk, which we speculate could relate to wildlife disturbance affecting pathogen spillback to cattle, though the study design precludes causal inference. Further studies are required. However, ultimately, integration of epidemiology with wildlife ecology will be important for understanding the underlying mechanisms involved, and to derive suitable effective management proposals, if required.