Predictors of short-term repetition of self-harm among patients admitted to an emergency room following self-harm: A retrospective one-year cohort study

Case fatality of repeated suicidal acts among suicide attempters in rural China: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Individuals presenting to hospital due to suicide attempt are at high risk for repeated suicidal act, yet there are meager data on the extent to which repeated suicidal acts result in death.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was based on a general hospital self-harm register system in a rural county in China. Identified individuals who attempted suicide were contacted and followed up for up to 8 years. Main outcomes over follow-up were: 1) suicide death, 2) nonlethal suicide attempt, and 3) suicidal acts including suicide death and nonlethal attempt. Incidence densities, correlates, and case fatality of repeated suicidal acts were estimated.

Findings

A total of 1086 individuals (two-thirds females, mean age 40.6 years) with a suicide attempt presenting to hospital (index attempt) were identified and followed up, with most of the index attempts by pesticide ingestion (79%). Over follow-up, there were 116 suicidal acts carried out by 108 individuals (69 females, 39 males), including 34 suicide deaths (21 females, 13 males), yielding a high case-fatality of 29.3%. During follow-up, suicide death rates were also high overall and in the first year of follow-up (846.7 and 1787.2 per 100,000 person years). Over follow-up, pesticide was the most common method (47/116) of repeated suicidal act and yielded a higher case-fatality than other methods (46.8% vs 17.4%, χ2 = 11.68, P < 0.001). The incidence densities of repeated suicidal acts and nonlethal attempts were low compared to rates reported in previous literature.

Interpretation

Incidence densities of repeated suicidal acts in a rural China cohort were low compared to previous studies. However, rates of suicide deaths over follow-up were high, a result driven by the high case-fatality of suicidal acts and attributable to the common use of pesticides. Reducing suicidal acts with pesticides is a key target for suicide prevention in rural China.

Funding

Beijing Municipal High Rank Public Health Researcher Training Program, Beijing Hospitals Authority Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support, and Beijing Hospitals Authority's Ascent Plan.

Prediction of Repeated Self-Harm in Six Months: Comparison of Traditional Psychometrics With Random Forest Algorithm

Suicidal risk has been a significant mental health problem. However, the predictive ability for repeated self-harm (SH) has not improved over the past decades. This study thus aimed to explore a potential tool with theoretical accommodation and clinical application by employing traditional logistic regression (LR) and newly developed machine learning, random forest algorithm (RF). Starting with 89 items from six commonly used scales (i.e., proximal suicide risk factors) as preliminary predictors, both LR and RF resulted in a better solution with much fewer items in two phases of item selections and analyses, with prediction accuracy 88.6% and 79.8%, respectively. A combination with 12 selected items, named LR-12, well predicted repeated self-harm in 6-month follow-up with satisfactory performance (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.92; cut-off point by 1/2 with sensitivity 81.1% and specificity 74.0%). The psychometrically appealing LR-12 could be used as a screening scale for suicide risk assessment.

Secondary mental health service utilisation following emergency department contact for suicidal behaviour: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Engagement with secondary mental health services after an emergency department presentation with suicidal behaviours may be an important strategy for reducing the risk of repeat attempts. Our aim was to examine secondary mental health service contact following a presentation to emergency department with suicidal behaviours.

METHODS

A systematic review of papers published between 2000 and 2020 was undertaken. This identified 56 papers relating to 47 primary studies. Data were extracted and summarised separately by age group: (1) young people, (2) older adults and (3) adults and studies with participants of 'all ages'.

RESULTS

Studies in young people (n = 13) showed, on average, 44.8% were referred and 33.7% had contact with secondary mental health services within 4 weeks of emergency department discharge. In comparison, in adult/all ages studies (n = 34), on average, 27.1% were referred to and 26.2% had mental health service contact within 4 weeks. Only three studies presented data on contact with mental health services for older adults, and proportions ranged from 49.0% to 86.0%.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights poor utilisation of secondary mental health service following emergency department presentation for suicidal behaviours, and further research is needed to identify the reasons for this. Crucially, this information could assist in the allocation of resources to facilitate the timely implementation of suicide prevention services.

Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts among older recipients of public welfare assistance in Japan

BACKGROUND

The high suicide rate among older adults is an important public health issue. Financial insecurity has been linked to suicidal behaviour. Despite this, as yet, there has been little research on suicide-related behaviours among older recipients of public welfare. This study will examine if suicidal ideation and suicide attempts are more prevalent in older recipients of public welfare assistance in Japan.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study analysed data from 16 135 adults aged ≥65 years who participated in the 2019 wave of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. Information was obtained on receiving public welfare assistance, lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts, and a variety of covariates. Poisson regression analysis with robust variance estimates was used to examine associations.

RESULTS

Suicidal ideation was reported by 4.8% of the participants, while the corresponding figure for attempted suicide was 2.2%. In fully adjusted analyses public welfare recipients had an almost 1.5 times higher prevalence of lifetime suicidal ideation (prevalence ratio, PR 1.47, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.13), and an almost two times higher prevalence of attempted suicide (PR 1.91, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.04) when compared with their counterparts not receiving public welfare assistance.

CONCLUSION

Older recipients of public welfare have a higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour in Japan. An urgent focus is now warranted on this vulnerable population to determine the specific factors underlying this association.

Associating factors of suicide and repetition following self-harm: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal evidence for sociodemographic and clinic factors deviating risk for suicide and repetition following SH (self-harm) varied greatly.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and PsycINFO was conducted from January 1st, 2010 to April 5th, 2022. Longitudinal studies focusing on examining associating factors for suicide and repetition following SH were included. PROSPERO registration CRD42021248695.

FINDINGS

The present meta-analysis synthesized data from 62 studies published from Jan. 1st, 2010. The associating factors of SH repetition included female gender (RR, 95%CI: 1.11, 1.04-1.18, I²=82.8%), the elderly (compared with adolescents and young adults, RR, 95%CI: 0.67, 0.52-0.87, I²=86.3%), multiple episodes of SH (RR, 95%CI: 1.97, 1.51-2.57, I²=94.3%), diagnosis (RR, 95%CI: 1.60, 1.27-2.02, I²=92.7%) and treatment (RR, 95%CI: 1.59, 1.40-1.80, I²=93.3%) of psychiatric disorder. Male gender (RR, 95%CI: 2.03, 1.80-2.28, I²=83.8%), middle-aged adults (compared with adolescents and young adults, RR, 95%CI: 2.40, 1.87-3.08, I²=74.4%), the elderly (compared with adolescents and young adults, RR, 95%CI: 4.38, 2.98-6.44, I²=76.8%), physical illness (RR, 95%CI: 1.95, 1.56-2.43, I²=0), multiple episodes of SH (RR, 95%CI: 2.02, 1.58-2.58, I²=87.4%), diagnosis (RR, 95%CI: 2.13, 1.67-2.71, I²=90.9%) and treatment (RR, 95%CI: 1.36, 1.16-1.58, I²=58.6%) of psychiatric disorder were associated with increased risk of suicide following SH.

INTERPRETATION

Due to the substantial heterogeneity for clinic factors of suicide and repetition following SH, these results need to be interpreted with caution. Clinics should pay more attention to the cases with SH repetition, especially with poor physical and psychiatric conditions.

FUNDING

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [No: 82103954; 30972527; 81573233].

Prediction of recurrent suicidal behavior among suicide attempters with Cox regression and machine learning: a 10-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Research on predictors and risk of recurrence after suicide attempt from China is lacking. This study aims to identify risk factors and develop prediction models for recurrent suicidal behavior among suicide attempters using Cox proportional hazard (CPH) and machine learning methods.

METHODS

The prospective cohort study included 1103 suicide attempters with a maximum follow-up of 10 years from rural China. Baseline characteristics, collected by face-to-face interviews at least 1 month later after index suicide attempt, were used to predict recurrent suicidal behavior. CPH and 3 machine learning algorithms, namely, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, random survival forest, and gradient boosting decision tree, were used to construct prediction models. Model performance was accessed by concordance index (C-index) and the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value for discrimination, and time-dependent calibration curve along with Brier score for calibration.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 7.79 years, and 49 suicide attempters had recurrent suicidal behavior during the study period. Four models achieved comparably good discrimination and calibration performance, with all C-indexes larger than 0.70, AUC values larger than 0.65, and Brier scores smaller than 0.06. Mental disorder emerged as the most important predictor across all four models. Suicide attempters with mental disorders had a 3 times higher risk of recurrence than those without. History of suicide attempt (HR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.34-6.02), unstable marital status (HR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.38-5.71), and older age (HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.14-2.01) were also identified as independent predictors of recurrent suicidal behavior by CPH model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed four models to predict recurrent suicidal behavior with comparable good prediction performance. Our findings potentially provided benefits in screening vulnerable individuals on a more precise scale.

A cohort study of initial self-harm events: method-specific case fatality of index events, predictors of fatal and nonfatal repetition, and frequency of method-switching

Most studies evaluating self-harm repetition risk factors are from Asia and Europe, use cohorts of people who self-injure without differentiating incident and prevalent self-harm episodes, and do not stratify by suicide method. The current study uses an incident user design to (a) examine case fatality at index self-harm events and at each repeat event, by method, (b) describe method-switching, and (c) identify factors associated with repetition of self-harm among those who survive their index hospitalization. Specifically, this study reports psychiatric history and method-specific case fatality for the initial self-harm event among Utah residents with an index event in 2014 or 2015 and who have no history of prior self-harm in hospital records. For survivors of the index self-harm episode, we use Accelerated Failure Time models to identify risk factors for nonfatal repetition and separately for suicide. Key findings: 10,521 Utah residents with no 3-year self-harm hospital history experienced a 2014 or 2015 index event. Of the 9.5% with index deaths, 53.6% used firearms. Of the 90.5% who survived, 63.1% used drugs. Among the index nonfatal cases, over an average 1-year follow-up, 11.7% experienced a nonfatal repetition and 0.8% died by suicide. Most subsequent nonfatal repetitions (59.7%) and suicides (56.8%) had presented with an index drug poisoning; over half (56.8%) of those who died switched methods. For those who subsequently fatally self-harmed, most used poisoning by drugs (33.8%), hanging/strangulation (28.4%), or firearms (24.3%) in the terminal episode. Nonfatal repetition was associated with younger age, index cutting/piercing instruments, and past-year psychiatric and drug abuse diagnoses. Subsequent suicide was associated with male gender, older age, and index gas poisoning and hanging/suffocation. Of the 56 people who survived an index firearm event, none subsequently died by suicide during the study period.

The Serious Self-Harm Risk of "Mixed Presenters," People Who Presented to New Zealand Emergency Departments for Self-Harm and Other Reasons: A Cohort Study

The objective of this study was to investigate if "Mixed Presenters," people who present to emergency departments at least twice within 28 days, once for self-harm and once for another reason (any order), have an increased risk of subsequent serious self-harm compared to self-harm only repeat presenters. Self-harm coded emergency department data from the Multi-level Intervention for Suicide Prevention (MISP) study was utilized to identify people with at least two presentations to one of eight District Health Boards between 2010 and 2012. First eligible presentation pairs determined their "Mixed Presenter" or "Self-harm Only Presenter" status. The sample was linked to admission and mortality datasets. Survival analysis over the 30-month timeframe was used to determine which presenter group was at higher risk of serious self-harm. Mixed Presenters (n = 1,544), four times more common than Self-harm Only Presenters (n = 377), had an estimated 60% reduced risk of serious self-harm compared to Self-harm Only Presenters. Compared to men, women had a 3.5 times (HR 3.53, 95% CI 2.47-5.06) increased risk. Having an urgent triage code allocated at the index presentation and being admitted at that index presentation were associated with increased serious self-harm risk for Self-harm Only Presenters compared to Mixed Presenters. This study confirms that two presentations for self-harm within a short timeframe indicate high risk of serious self-harm in the future. As men often die following single attempts, and Mixed Presenters may transition to being Self-harm Only Presenters, each presentation for self-harm requires serious attention.

Patients with first versus multiple episodes of self-harm: how do their profiles differ?

BACKGROUND

Self-harm (SH) is among the strongest predictors of further episodes of SH, suicide attempt, and death by suicide. People who repeteadly harm themselves are at even higher risk for suicide. Factors influencing the repetition are important to identify when assessing suicidal risk and thereafter to offer specific interventions. Therefore, this study aimed to compare first versus multiple episodes characteristics in a large sample of patients in french-speaking Switzerland.

METHOD

We used the database from the French-speaking Swiss program for monitoring SH. Data of the psychiatric assessment of all adults admitted for SH were collected in the emergency department of four Swiss city hospitals between December 2016 and October 2019.

RESULTS

1730 episodes of SH were included. Several variables were significantly associated with multiple episodes, including diagnosis (over representation of personality disorders and under representation of anxiety disorders), professional activity (Invalidity insurance more frequent) and prior psychiatry care.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients suffering from a personality disorder and those with invalidity insurance are at risk for multiple episodes of SH and should be targeted with specific interventions.

The short-term rate of non-fatal and fatal repetition of deliberate self-harm: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is often recurrent, but the reported rate of short-term repetition of DSH has varied greatly. This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to synthesize findings through providing pooled rate estimates and to explore their differences by age, gender, and other factors.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and PsycINFO was conducted to include longitudinal studies from 1999 to 2018. Random effects model was applied to pool rates of non-fatal and fatal repetition at 0.5, 1, 2, and 3 years intervals.

RESULTS

Of 9201 potentially eligible articles 76 studies were included for this systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled rates of non-fatal repetition were 15.01%, 17.03%, 20.82%, and 24.20% during the 0.5-year, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year follow-up, respectively. The corresponding rates of fatal repetition were 0.77%, 1.34%, 1.49% and 2.46%, respectively. When focusing on the 1-year follow-up, the pooled rate of fatal, not non-fatal, repetition was significantly higher in males than females. The rate of non-fatal DSH repetition was highest in middle-aged adults, while the rate of fatal repetition was highest among the elderly. Geographically, Europe had higher rate of non-fatal repetition whilst Asia had higher rate of repetition leading to death.

LIMITATION

Search was limited to English language and publication bias was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Both non-fatal and fatal repetitions are common among people with DSH, but the rates differ considerably by gender, age and geographical location. These insights may guide provision of follow-up care and effort of suicide prevention for this high-risk population.

Recurrence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors during one year of follow-up: An exploratory study

Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) include suicidal ideation (SI), suicide attempt (SA) and completed suicide. We aimed to identify recurrence predictors of any type of STB, and separately for SA and SI, and to analyze the time until event. A 108-subject cohort presenting at Emergencies with STB was followed during one year. Recurrence risk factors were investigated by multiple Cox survival regressions. Within one year, 31.5%, 23.1% and 9.3% patients recurred with any STB, SA, and SI respectively. Most recurrences (~70%) occurred within the first 6 months. Seeking emergency psychiatric assistance for problems other than STB during follow-up was a common predictor for recurrence of any STB, and SA and SI specifically. Previous SA history and contact with psychiatry outpatient units during follow-up predicted both STB in general and SA in particular. A specific predictor for SA was hospitalization at index, while SI recurrence was associated to SI at index. These results highlight the importance of early intervention and multidisciplinary follow-up considering concurrent psychosocial or adaptive problems. A careful exploration at Emergencies is needed to target potential predictors.