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Peng Y, Yang T, Zhu Y, Hu Q, Wang Y, Zhao Z, Rui J, Lin S, Liu X, Xu J, Yang M, Deng B, Huang J, Liu W, Luo L, Liu C, Li Z, Li P, Kong D, Yang X, Chen T. Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:683720. [PMID: 34414203 PMCID: PMC8369200 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.683720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps. The effective reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmission capacity in different areas. From 2005 to 2018, there were 36,415 cases. The incidence of mumps was highest among people aged 5-10 years (460.02 per 100,000). The SEIAR model fitted the reported mumps data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) was 1.04 (range = 0-2.50). There were two peak spreads every year (from March to May and from October to December). The R t peak always appeared in the first 2 months of the peak incidence rate. The peak time of the epidemic spread of mumps was 1-2 months earlier than the peak incidence rate. The prevention and control measures of vaccination for children aged 5-10 years should be taken before the peak transmission capacity each year, 2 months before the peak of the outbreak, to reduce the spread of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Peng
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Tianlong Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yuanzhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Qingqing Hu
- Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shengnan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Xingchun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jingwen Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Bin Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jiefeng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Weikang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Li Luo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Chan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zhuoyang Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Peihua Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Deguang Kong
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Xiaobing Yang
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0232273. [PMID: 32348370 PMCID: PMC7190132 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Mumps, a common childhood disease, has a high incidence in Guangzhou city, China. It has been proven that mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological factors among children is yet to be fully ascertained. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children from 2014–2018. The nonlinear lag effects of some meteorological factors were detected. Mean temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity were positively correlated with mumps incidence, contrary to that of wind speed. Extreme effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity on the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou were evaluated in a subgroup analysis according to gender and age. Our preliminary results offered fundamental information to better understand the epidemic trends of mumps among children to develop an early warning system, and strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.
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