Predicting the probability of malignant pathological type of kidney cancer based on mass size: A retrospective study

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the impact of tumor size on cancer-specific survival of locally advanced renal cell carcinoma: a SEER-based study

This study was aimed to integrate tumor size with other prognostic factors into a prognostic nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in locally advanced (≥pT3a Nany M0) renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients. Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 10,800 patients diagnosed with locally advanced RCC were collected. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 7,056) and a validation cohort (n = 3,024). X-tile program was used to identify the optimal cut-off value of tumor size and age. The cut-off of age at diagnosis was 65 years old and 75 years old. The cut-off of tumor size was 54 mm and 119 mm. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed in the training cohort to identify independent prognostic factors for construction of nomogram. Then, the nomogram was used to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year CSS. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by using concordance index (C-index), area under the Subject operating curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Moreover, the nomogram and tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system (AJCC 8th edition) were compared. 10 variables were screened to develop the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) indicated satisfactory ability of the nomogram. Compared with the AJCC 8th edition of TNM stage, DCA showed that the nomogram had improved performance. We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting the CSS of patients with locally advanced RCC, which was more precise than the AJCC 8th edition of TNM staging system.

Do patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma obtain survival benefits from cytoreductive nephrectomy? A population-based study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to explore the value of cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN) and develop nomograms to predict the prognosis of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients with receiving radiology therapy or/and chemotherapy (RT/&CT).

METHODS

Clinical data of patients with mRCC between 2010 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Prognostic nomograms were constructed to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probability for 1-, 3-, and 5- years in patients with mRCC. A series of validation methods were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the model, including area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

1394 patients were enrolled in this study. All patients were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 976) and the validation cohort (n = 418). In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that pathology grade, histology type, T stage, N stage, surgery, and distant metastasis were independent risk factors for OS and CSS. The AUC and C-index were both over 0.65 in both cohorts, indicating that the nomograms for OS and CSS had satisfactory discriminative power. The calibration curves revealed that the predictive nomograms had a good consistency between the observed and the predicted survival.

CONCLUSION

This study provided evidence that mRCC patients underwent RT/&CT could gain survival benefits from CN. The prognostic nomogram constructed in our study is reliable and practical, may help guide clinical strategies in the treatment of mRCC.