Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events

Prediction of frequency and exposure level of solar particle events

For future space missions outside of the Earth's magnetic field, the risk of radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPEs) during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern when designing radiation protection including determining sufficient shielding requirements for astronauts and hardware. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by solar modulation, SPE occurrences themselves are chaotic in nature. We report on a probabilistic modeling approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, we then estimated the expected frequency of SPEs at any given proton fluence threshold with energy >30 MeV (Phi(30)) during a defined space mission period. Analytic energy spectra of 34 large SPEs observed in the space era were fitted over broad energy ranges extending to GeV, and subsequently used to calculate the distribution of mGy equivalent (mGy-Eq) dose for a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) inside a spacecraft as a function of total Phi(30) fluence. This distribution was combined with a simulation of SPE events using the Poisson model to estimate the probability of the BFO dose exceeding the NASA 30-d limit of 250 mGy-Eq per 30 d. These results will be useful in implementing probabilistic risk assessment approaches at NASA and guidelines for protection systems for astronauts on future space exploration missions.

A temporal forecast of radiation environments for future space exploration missions

The understanding of future space radiation environments is an important goal for space mission operations, design, and risk assessment. We have developed a solar cycle statistical model in which sunspot number is coupled to space-related quantities, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (phi) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle events (SPEs). Future GCR fluxes were derived from a predictive model, in which the temporal dependence represented by phi was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. These results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary space was influenced by solar modulation by up to a factor of three. It also has been shown that a strong relationship exists between large SPE occurrences and phi. For future space exploration missions, cumulative probabilities of SPEs at various integral fluence levels during short-period missions were defined using a database of proton fluences of past SPEs. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences for energies greater than 30 MeV were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV for the analysis of representative exposure levels at those fluences. Results will guide the design of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.