External validation of a prognostic model incorporating quantitative PET image features in oesophageal cancer

Methodological evaluation of original articles on radiomics and machine learning for outcome prediction based on positron emission tomography (PET)

AIM

Despite a vast number of articles on radiomics and machine learning in positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, clinical applicability remains limited, partly owing to poor methodological quality. We therefore systematically investigated the methodology described in publications on radiomics and machine learning for PET-based outcome prediction.

METHODS

A systematic search for original articles was run on PubMed. All articles were rated according to 17 criteria proposed by the authors. Criteria with >2 rating categories were binarized into "adequate" or "inadequate". The association between the number of "adequate" criteria per article and the date of publication was examined.

RESULTS

One hundred articles were identified (published between 07/2017 and 09/2023). The median proportion of articles per criterion that were rated "adequate" was 65% (range: 23-98%). Nineteen articles (19%) mentioned neither a test cohort nor cross-validation to separate training from testing. The median number of criteria with an "adequate" rating per article was 12.5 out of 17 (range, 4-17), and this did not increase with later dates of publication (Spearman's rho, 0.094; p = 0.35). In 22 articles (22%), less than half of the items were rated "adequate". Only 8% of articles published the source code, and 10% made the dataset openly available.

CONCLUSION

Among the articles investigated, methodological weaknesses have been identified, and the degree of compliance with recommendations on methodological quality and reporting shows potential for improvement. Better adherence to established guidelines could increase the clinical significance of radiomics and machine learning for PET-based outcome prediction and finally lead to the widespread use in routine clinical practice.

MRI-based radiomic prognostic signature for locally advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: development, testing and comparison with genomic prognostic signatures

BACKGROUND

. At present, the prognostic prediction in advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is based on the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, and the most used imaging modality in these patients is magnetic resonance image (MRI). With the aim to improve the prediction, we developed an MRI-based radiomic signature as a prognostic marker for overall survival (OS) in OCSCC patients and compared it with published gene expression signatures for prognosis of OS in head and neck cancer patients, replicated herein on our OCSCC dataset.

METHODS

For each patient, 1072 radiomic features were extracted from T1 and T2-weighted MRI (T1w and T2w). Features selection was performed, and an optimal set of five of them was used to fit a Cox proportional hazard regression model for OS. The radiomic signature was developed on a multi-centric locally advanced OCSCC retrospective dataset (n = 123) and validated on a prospective cohort (n = 108).

RESULTS

The performance of the signature was evaluated in terms of C-index (0.68 (IQR 0.66-0.70)), hazard ratio (HR 2.64 (95% CI 1.62-4.31)), and high/low risk group stratification (log-rank p < 0.001, Kaplan-Meier curves). When tested on a multi-centric prospective cohort (n = 108), the signature had a C-index of 0.62 (IQR 0.58-0.64) and outperformed the clinical and pathologic TNM stage and six out of seven gene expression prognostic signatures. In addition, the significant difference of the radiomic signature between stages III and IVa/b in patients receiving surgery suggests a potential association of MRI features with the pathologic stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the present study suggests that MRI signatures, containing non-invasive and cost-effective remarkable information, could be exploited as prognostic tools.

Performance of radiomics-based artificial intelligence systems in the diagnosis and prediction of treatment response and survival in esophageal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy

Radiomics can interpret radiological images with more detail and in less time compared to the human eye. Some challenges in managing esophageal cancer can be addressed by incorporating radiomics into image interpretation, treatment planning, and predicting response and survival. This systematic review and meta-analysis provides a summary of the evidence of radiomics in esophageal cancer. The systematic review was carried out using Pubmed, MEDLINE, and Ovid EMBASE databases-articles describing radiomics in esophageal cancer were included. A meta-analysis was also performed; 50 studies were included. For the assessment of treatment response using 18F-FDG PET/computed tomography (CT) scans, seven studies (443 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 86.5% (81.1-90.6) and 87.1% (78.0-92.8). For the assessment of treatment response using CT scans, five studies (625 patients) were included in the meta-analysis, with a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 86.7% (81.4-90.7) and 76.1% (69.9-81.4). The remaining 37 studies formed the qualitative review, discussing radiomics in diagnosis, radiotherapy planning, and survival prediction. This review explores the wide-ranging possibilities of radiomics in esophageal cancer management. The sensitivities of 18F-FDG PET/CT scans and CT scans are comparable, but 18F-FDG PET/CT scans have improved specificity for AI-based prediction of treatment response. Models integrating clinical and radiomic features facilitate diagnosis and survival prediction. More research is required into comparing models and conducting large-scale studies to build a robust evidence base.

Radiomic assessment of oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a critical review of 18F-FDG PET/CT, PET/MRI and CT

Objectives

Radiomic models present an avenue to improve oesophageal adenocarcinoma assessment through quantitative medical image analysis. However, model selection is complicated by the abundance of available predictors and the uncertainty of their relevance and reproducibility. This analysis reviews recent research to facilitate precedent-based model selection for prospective validation studies.

Methods

This analysis reviews research on 18F-FDG PET/CT, PET/MRI and CT radiomics in oesophageal adenocarcinoma between 2016 and 2021. Model design, testing and reporting are evaluated according to the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) score and Radiomics Quality Score (RQS). Key results and limitations are analysed to identify opportunities for future research in the area.

Results

Radiomic models of stage and therapeutic response demonstrated discriminative capacity, though clinical applications require greater sensitivity. Although radiomic models predict survival within institutions, generalisability is limited. Few radiomic features have been recommended independently by multiple studies.

Conclusions

Future research must prioritise prospective validation of previously proposed models to further clinical translation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13244-022-01245-0.

Radiomics in Oncological PET Imaging: A Systematic Review-Part 2, Infradiaphragmatic Cancers, Blood Malignancies, Melanoma and Musculoskeletal Cancers

The objective of this review was to summarize published radiomics studies dealing with infradiaphragmatic cancers, blood malignancies, melanoma, and musculoskeletal cancers, and assess their quality. PubMed database was searched from January 1990 to February 2022 for articles performing radiomics on PET imaging of at least 1 specified tumor type. Exclusion criteria includd: non-oncological studies; supradiaphragmatic tumors; reviews, comments, cases reports; phantom or animal studies; technical articles without a clinically oriented question; studies including <30 patients in the training cohort. The review database contained PMID, first author, year of publication, cancer type, number of patients, study design, independent validation cohort and objective. This database was completed twice by the same person; discrepant results were resolved by a third reading of the articles. A total of 162 studies met inclusion criteria; 61 (37.7%) studies included >100 patients, 13 (8.0%) were prospective and 61 (37.7%) used an independent validation set. The most represented cancers were esophagus, lymphoma, and cervical cancer (n = 24, n = 24 and n = 19 articles, respectively). Most studies focused on 18F-FDG, and prognostic and response to treatment objectives. Although radiomics and artificial intelligence are technically challenging, new contributions and guidelines help improving research quality over the years and pave the way toward personalized medicine.

Methodological quality of machine learning-based quantitative imaging analysis studies in esophageal cancer: a systematic review of clinical outcome prediction after concurrent chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

Studies based on machine learning-based quantitative imaging techniques have gained much interest in cancer research. The aim of this review is to critically appraise the existing machine learning-based quantitative imaging analysis studies predicting outcomes of esophageal cancer after concurrent chemoradiotherapy in accordance with PRISMA guidelines.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The citation search was performed via PubMed and Embase Ovid databases for literature published before April 2021. From each full-text article, study characteristics and model information were summarized. We proposed an appraisal matrix with 13 items to assess the methodological quality of each study based on recommended best-practices pertaining to quality.

RESULTS

Out of 244 identified records, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. Study endpoints included prognosis, treatment response, and toxicity after concurrent chemoradiotherapy with reported discrimination metrics in validation datasets between 0.6 and 0.9, with wide variation in quality. A total of 30 studies published within the last 5 years were evaluated for methodological quality and we found 11 studies with at least 6 "good" item ratings.

CONCLUSION

A substantial number of studies lacked prospective registration, external validation, model calibration, and support for use in clinic. To further improve the predictive power of machine learning-based models and translate into real clinical applications in cancer research, appropriate methodologies, prospective registration, and multi-institution validation are recommended.

Radiomics integration into a picture archiving and communication system

Radiomics is referred to as quantitative imaging of biomarkers used for clinical outcome prognosis or tumor characterization. In order to bridge radiomics and its clinical application, we aimed to build an integrated solution of radiomics extraction with an open-source Picture Archiving and Communication System (PACS). The integrated SQLite4Radiomics software was tested in three different imaging modalities and its performance was benchmarked in lung cancer open datasets RIDER and MMD with median extraction time of 10.7 (percentiles 25-75: 8.9-18.7) seconds per ROI in three different configurations.

Emerging role of artificial intelligence in nuclear medicine

The role of artificial intelligence is increasing in all branches of medicine. The emerging role of artificial intelligence applications in nuclear medicine is going to improve the nuclear medicine clinical workflow in the coming years. Initial research outcomes are suggestive of increasing role of artificial intelligence in nuclear medicine workflow, particularly where selective automation tasks are of concern. Artificial intelligence-assisted planning, dosimetry and procedure execution appear to be areas for rapid and significant development. The role of artificial intelligence in more directly imaging-related tasks, such as dose optimization, image corrections and image reconstruction, have been particularly strong points of artificial intelligence research in nuclear medicine. Natural Language Processing (NLP)-based text processing task is another area of interest of artificial intelligence implementation in nuclear medicine.

Computed Tomography-Based Delta-Radiomics Analysis for Discriminating Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients With Esophageal Cancer After Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE

Our purpose was to construct a computed tomography (CT)-based delta-radiomics nomogram and corresponding risk classification system for individualized and accurate estimation of severe acute radiation pneumonitis (SARP) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after radiation therapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Four hundred patients with EC were enrolled from 2 independent institutions and were divided into the training (n = 200) and validation (n = 200) cohorts. Eight hundred fifty radiomics features of lung were extracted from treatment planning images, including the positioning CT before radiation therapy (CT₁) and the resetting CT after receiving 40 to 45 Gy (CT₂). The longitudinal net changes in radiomics features from CT₁ to CT₂ were calculated and defined as delta-radiomics features. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm was performed to features selection and delta-radiomics signature building. Integrating the signature with multidimensional clinicopathologic, dosimetric, and hematological predictors of SARP, a novel CT-based delta-radiomics nomogram was established according to multivariate analysis. The clinical application values of nomogram were both evaluated in the training and validation cohorts by concordance index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to generate a risk classification system.

RESULTS

The delta-radiomics signature consisting of 24 features was significantly associated with SARP status (P < .001). Incorporating it with other high-risk factors, Subjective Global Assessment score, pulmonary fibrosis score, mean lung dose, and systemic immune inflammation index, the developed delta-radiomics nomogram showed increased improvement in SARP discrimination accuracy with concordance index of 0.975 and 0.921 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the satisfactory clinical feasibility and utility of nomogram. The risk classification system displayed excellent performance on identifying SARP occurrence (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The delta-radiomics nomogram and risk classification system as low-cost and noninvasive means exhibited superior predictive accuracy and provided individualized probability of SARP stratification for patients with EC.

Using Genomics Feature Selection Method in Radiomics Pipeline Improves Prognostication Performance in Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma-A Pilot Study

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic value of baseline and restaging CT-based radiomics with features associated with gene expression in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) plus surgery.

METHODS

We enrolled 106 ESCC patients receiving nCRT from two institutions. Gene expression profiles of 28 patients in the training set were used to detect differentially expressed (DE) genes between patients with and without relapse. Radiomic features that were correlated to DE genes were selected, followed by additional machine learning selection. A radiomic nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) prediction incorporating the radiomic signature and prognostic clinical characteristics was established for DFS estimation and validated.

RESULTS

The radiomic signature with DE genes feature selection achieved better performance for DFS prediction than without. The nomogram incorporating the radiomic signature and lymph nodal status significantly stratified patients into high and low-risk groups for DFS (p < 0.001). The areas under the curve (AUCs) for predicting 5-year DFS were 0.912 in the training set, 0.852 in the internal test set, 0.769 in the external test set.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomics association was useful for radiomic feature selection. The established radiomic signature was prognostic for DFS. The radiomic nomogram could provide a valuable prediction for individualized long-term survival.

Opportunities in cancer imaging: a review of oesophageal, gastric and colorectal malignancies

The incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) malignancy is increasing worldwide. In particular, there is a concerning rise in incidence of GI cancer in younger adults. Direct endoscopic visualisation of luminal tumour sites requires invasive procedures, which are associated with certain risks, but remain necessary because of limitations in current imaging techniques and the continuing need to obtain tissue for diagnosis and genetic analysis; however, management of GI cancer is increasingly reliant on non-invasive, radiological imaging to diagnose, stage, and treat these malignancies. Oesophageal, gastric, and colorectal malignancies require specialist investigation and treatment due to the complex nature of the anatomy, biology, and subsequent treatment strategies. As cancer imaging techniques develop, many opportunities to improve tumour detection, diagnostic accuracy and treatment monitoring present themselves. This review article aims to report current imaging practice, advances in various radiological modalities in relation to GI luminal tumour sites and describes opportunities for GI radiologists to improve patient outcomes.

Application of radiomics and machine learning in head and neck cancers

With the continuous development of medical image informatics technology, more and more high-throughput quantitative data could be extracted from digital medical images, which has resulted in a new kind of omics-Radiomics. In recent years, in addition to genomics, proteomics and metabolomics, radiomic has attracted the interest of more and more researchers. Compared to other omics, radiomics can be perfectly integrated with clinical data, even with the pathology and molecular biomarker, so that the study can be closer to the clinical reality and more revealing of the tumor development. Mass data will also be generated in this process. Machine learning, due to its own characteristics, has a unique advantage in processing massive radiomic data. By analyzing mass amounts of data with strong clinical relevance, people can construct models that more accurately reflect tumor development and progression, thereby providing the possibility of personalized and sequential treatment of patients. As one of the cancer types whose treatment and diagnosis rely on imaging examination, radiomics has a very broad application prospect in head and neck cancers (HNC). Until now, there have been some notable results in HNC. In this review, we will introduce the concepts and workflow of radiomics and machine learning and their current applications in head and neck cancers, as well as the directions and applications of artificial intelligence in the treatment and diagnosis of HNC.

Prediction of lymph node metastases using pre-treatment PET radiomics of the primary tumour in esophageal adenocarcinoma: an external validation study

OBJECTIVES

To improve clinical lymph node staging (cN-stage) in oesophageal adenocarcinoma by developing and externally validating three prediction models; one with clinical variables only, one with positron emission tomography (PET) radiomics only, and a combined clinical and radiomics model.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) avid tumours treated with neoadjuvant therapy between 2010 and 2016 in two international centres (n = 130 and n = 60, respectively) were included. Four clinical variables (age, gender, clinical T-stage and tumour regression grade) and PET radiomics from the primary tumour were used for model development. Diagnostic accuracy, area under curve (AUC), discrimination and calibration were calculated for each model. The prognostic significance was also assessed.

RESULTS

The incidence of lymph node metastases was 58% in both cohorts. The areas under the curve of the clinical, radiomics and combined models were 0.79, 0.69 and 0.82 in the developmental cohort, and 0.65, 0.63 and 0.69 in the external validation cohort, with good calibration demonstrated. The area under the curve of current cN-stage in development and validation cohorts was 0.60 and 0.66, respectively. For overall survival, the combined clinical and radiomics model achieved the best discrimination performance in the external validation cohort (X² = 6.08, df = 1, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Accurate diagnosis of lymph node metastases is crucial for prognosis and guiding treatment decisions. Despite finding improved predictive performance in the development cohort, the models using PET radiomics derived from the primary tumour were not fully replicated in an external validation cohort.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This international study attempted to externally validate a new prediction model for lymph node metastases using PET radiomics. A model combining clinical variables and PET radiomics improved discrimination of lymph node metastases, but these results were not externally replicated.

Artificial intelligence applications for oncological positron emission tomography imaging

Positron emission tomography (PET), a functional and dynamic molecular imaging technique, is generally used to reveal tumors' biological behavior. Radiomics allows a high-throughput extraction of multiple features from images with artificial intelligence (AI) approaches and develops rapidly worldwide. Quantitative and objective features of medical images have been explored to recognize reliable biomarkers, with the development of PET radiomics. This paper will review the current clinical exploration of PET-based classical machine learning and deep learning methods, including disease diagnosis, the prediction of histological subtype, gene mutation status, tumor metastasis, tumor relapse, therapeutic side effects, therapeutic intervention and evaluation of prognosis. The applications of AI in oncology will be mainly discussed. The image-guided biopsy or surgery assisted by PET-based AI will be introduced as well. This paper aims to present the applications and methods of AI for PET imaging, which may offer important details for further clinical studies. Relevant precautions are put forward and future research directions are suggested.

A FDG-PET radiomics signature detects esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients who do not benefit from chemoradiation

Detection of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who do not benefit from standard chemoradiation (CRT) is an important medical need. Radiomics using 18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) is a promising approach. In this retrospective study of 184 patients with locally advanced ESCC. 152 patients from one center were grouped into a training cohort (n = 100) and an internal validation cohort (n = 52). External validation was performed with 32 patients treated at a second center. Primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and local control (LC). FDG-PET radiomics features were selected by Lasso-Cox regression analyses and a separate radiomics signature was calculated for each endpoint. In the training cohort radiomics signatures containing up to four PET derived features were able to identify non-responders in regard of all endpoints (DFS p < 0.001, LC p = 0.003, OS p = 0.001). After successful internal validation of the cutoff values generated by the training cohort for DFS (p = 0.025) and OS (p = 0.002), external validation using these cutoffs was successful for DFS (p = 0.002) but not for the other investigated endpoints. These results suggest that pre-treatment FDG-PET features may be useful to detect patients who do not respond to CRT and could benefit from alternative treatment.

Development and multicenter validation of a CT-based radiomics signature for discriminating histological grades of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Background

The histological grade of pancreatic cancer is an important independent predictor of outcome. However, we lack a method for safely and accurately obtaining the pathological grade before surgery. Radiomics has been used to discriminate between histological grades in tumors. We aimed to develop and validate a radiomics signature for the preoperative prediction of histological grades of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) that was based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT).

Methods

This study comprised 301 patients with pathologically confirmed PDAC who were randomly divided into a training (n=151) and test group (n=150). Radiomics features were selected by a support vector machine (SVM) model, and a radiomics signature was generated by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model. An additional 100 patients from 2 other medical centers were used for external validation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the model and to identify the optimal cutoff value.

Results

The radiomics signatures between high-grade and low-grade PDACs in the training and test groups were significantly different (P<0.05). The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the training and test datasets were 0.961 and 0.910, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of the radiomics score was 0.426. In the external validation dataset, the difference between the radiomics signatures of high-grade versus low-grade PDACs was also significant (P<0.05). The radiomics signature for the external validation data had an AUC of 0.770.

Conclusions

The CE-CT-based radiomics signature showed moderate predictive accuracy for differentiating low-grade from high-grade PDAC and should become a new noninvasive method for the preoperative prediction of histological grades of PDAC.

CT radiomics and PET radiomics: ready for clinical implementation?

INTRODUCTION

Today, rapid technical and clinical developments result in an increasing number of treatment options for oncological diseases. Thus, decision support systems are needed to offer the right treatment to the right patient. Imaging biomarkers hold great promise in patient-individual treatment guidance. Routinely performed for diagnosis and staging, imaging datasets are expected to hold more information than used in the clinical practice. Radiomics describes the extraction of a large number of meaningful quantitative features from medical images, such as computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET). Due to the non-invasive nature and ability to capture 3D image-based heterogeneity, radiomic features are potential surrogate markers of the cancer phenotype. Several radiomic studies are published per day, owing to encouraging results of many radiomics-based patient outcome models. Despite this comparably large number of studies, radiomics is mainly studied in proof of principle concept. Hence, a translation of radiomics from a hot topic research field into an essential clinical decision-making tool is lacking, but of high clinical interest.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Herein, we present a literature review addressing the clinical evidence of CT and PET radiomics. An extensive literature review was conducted in PubMed, including papers on robustness and clinical applications.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

We summarize image-modality related influences on the robustness of radiomic features and provide an overview of clinical evidence reported in the literature. Today, more evidence has been provided for CT imaging, however, PET imaging offers the promise of direct imaging of biological processes and functions. We provide a summary of future research directions, which needs to be addressed in order to successfully introduce radiomics into clinical medicine. In comparison to CT, more focus should be directed towards harmonization of PET acquisition and reconstruction protocols, which is important for transferable modelling.

CONCLUSIONS

Both CT and PET radiomics are promising pre-treatment and intra-treatment biomarkers for outcome prediction. Most studies are performed in retrospective setting, however their validation in prospective data collections is ongoing.

Radiomics in nuclear medicine: robustness, reproducibility, standardization, and how to avoid data analysis traps and replication crisis

Radiomics in nuclear medicine is rapidly expanding. Reproducibility of radiomics studies in multicentre settings is an important criterion for clinical translation. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to investigate reproducibility of radiomics biomarkers in PET imaging and to obtain quantitative information regarding their sensitivity to variations in various imaging and radiomics-related factors as well as their inherent sensitivity. Additionally, we identify and describe data analysis pitfalls that affect the reproducibility and generalizability of radiomics studies. After a systematic literature search, 42 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, and data from 21 were used for the quantitative meta-analysis. Data concerning measurement agreement and reliability were collected for 21 of 38 different factors associated with image acquisition, reconstruction, segmentation and radiomics-specific processing steps. Variations in voxel size, segmentation and several reconstruction parameters strongly affected reproducibility, but the level of evidence remained weak. Based on the meta-analysis, we also assessed inherent sensitivity to variations of 110 PET image biomarkers. SUV_mean and SUV_max were found to be reliable, whereas image biomarkers based on the neighbourhood grey tone difference matrix and most biomarkers based on the size zone matrix were found to be highly sensitive to variations, and should be used with care in multicentre settings. Lastly, we identify 11 data analysis pitfalls. These pitfalls concern model validation and information leakage during model development, but also relate to reporting and the software used for data analysis. Avoiding such pitfalls is essential for minimizing bias in the results and to enable reproduction and validation of radiomics studies.

Deep Convolutional Neural Network-Based Positron Emission Tomography Analysis Predicts Esophageal Cancer Outcome

In esophageal cancer, few prediction tools can be confidently used in current clinical practice. We developed a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) with 798 positron emission tomography (PET) scans of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and 309 PET scans of stage I lung cancer. In the first stage, we pretrained a 3D-CNN with all PET scans for a task to classify the scans into esophageal cancer or lung cancer. Overall, 548 of 798 PET scans of esophageal cancer patients were included in the second stage with an aim to classify patients who expired within or survived more than one year after diagnosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. In the pretrain model, the deep CNN attained an AUC of 0.738 in identifying patients who expired within one year after diagnosis. In the survival analysis, patients who were predicted to be expired but were alive at one year after diagnosis had a 5-year survival rate of 32.6%, which was significantly worse than the 5-year survival rate of the patients who were predicted to survive and were alive at one year after diagnosis (50.5%, p < 0.001). These results suggest that the prediction model could identify tumors with more aggressive behavior. In the multivariable analysis, the prediction result remained an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratio: 2.830; 95% confidence interval: 2.252–3.555, p < 0.001). We conclude that a 3D-CNN can be trained with PET image datasets to predict esophageal cancer outcome with acceptable accuracy.