Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score: Value evaluating the efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy and prognostic significance after surgery?

ctDNA as a predictor of outcome after curative resection for locally advanced rectal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To assess the efficacy of ctDNA measurement at different time intervals in predicting response and prognosis in patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who underwent neoadjuvant treatment prior to curative resection.

METHOD

English language randomized controlled trials and observational studies, published from 1946 to January 2024, comparing outcomes between ctDNA-positive and ctDNA-negative patients with LARC undergoing neoadjuvant treatment prior to curative surgical resection were included in the search. The search included Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR).

RESULTS

Data for 1022 patients were analysed. Patients with positive ctDNA in the preoperative period had more than five times the risk of developing distant metastasis (RR [95% CI] 5.03 [3.31-7.65], p < 0.001), while those with positive ctDNA in the postoperative period had more than six times the risk (RR [95% CI] 6.17 [2.38-15.95], p < 0.001). There was no significant relationship between ctDNA status at baseline, pre-, or postoperative periods and achievement of pCR (RR [95% CI] 1.21 [0.86-1.7], 1.82 [0.94-3.55], 1.48 [0.78-2.82], p = 0.27, 0.08, and 0.23, respectively). However, patients with positive ctDNA in the pre- and postoperative periods had more than 13 and 12 times the risk of overall disease relapse after curative-intent treatment (RR [95% CI] 13.55 [7.12-25.81], 12.14 [3.19-46.14], p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

ctDNA could potentially guide treatment and follow-up in LARC, predicting high-risk patients for disease relapse, allowing individualized surveillance and treatment strategies. Prospective studies are needed for standardization.

Modified neoadjuvant rectal score as a novel prognostic model for rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR score) has recently been proposed as a better prognostic model than the conventional TNM classification for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We recently developed an apoptosis-detection technique for assessing the viability of residual tumors in resected specimens after chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to establish an improved prognostic classification by combining the NAR score and the assessment of the apoptosis of residual cancer cells.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 319 rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival of the four models were compared: TNM stage, NAR score, modified TNM stage by re-staging according to cancer cell viability, and modified NAR score also by re-staging.

RESULTS

Downstaging of the ypT stage was observed in 15.5% of cases, whereas only 4.5% showed downstaging of ypN stage. C-index was highest for the modified NAR score (0.715), followed by the modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score. Similarly, Akaike's information criterion was smallest in the modified NAR score (926.2), followed by modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score, suggesting that the modified NAR score was the best among these four models. The overall survival results were similar: C-index was the highest (0.767) and Akaike's information criterion was the smallest (383.9) for the modified NAR score among the four models tested.

CONCLUSION

We established a novel prognostic model, for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, using a combination of apoptosis-detecting immunohistochemistry and neoadjuvant rectal scores.

Prognostic analysis of rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: different prognostic factors in patients with different TRGs

PURPOSE

The extent of tumor regression varies widely among locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who receive neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME). The purpose of this retrospectively study is to assess prognostic factors in LARC patients with NCRT, and further to analyze survival outcomes in patients with different tumor regression grades (TRGs).

METHODS

This study includes LARC patients who underwent NCRT and TME at our institution. We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and survival of all patients, and performed subgroup analysis for patients with different TRGs. Survival differences were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log rank test. Additionally, a multiple Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The study included 393 patients, with 21.1%, 26.5%, 45.5%, and 6.9% achieving TRG 0, TRG 1, TRG 2, and TRG 3, respectively. The overall survival (OS) rate and disease-free survival (DFS) rate for all patients were 89.4% and 70.7%, respectively. Patients who achieved TRG 0-3 had different 5-year OS rates (96.9%, 91.1%, 85.2%, and 68.8%, P = 0.001) and 5-year DFS rates (80.8%, 72.4%, 67.0%, 55.8%, P = 0.031), respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score was an independent prognostic indicator for both overall survival (OS) (HR = 4.040, 95% CI = 1.792-9.111, P = 0.001) and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 1.971, 95% CI = 1.478-2.628, P ˂ 0.001). In the subgroup analyses, the NAR score was found to be associated with DFS in patients with TRG 1 and TRG 2. After conducting multivariate analysis, it was found that ypT stage was a significant predictor of DFS for TRG 1 patients (HR = 4.384, 95% CI = 1.721-11.168, P = 0.002). On the other hand, ypN stage was identified as the dominant prognostic indicator of DFS for TRG 2 patients (HR = 2.795, 95% CI = 1.535-5.091, P = 0.001). However, none of these characteristics was found to be correlated with survival in patients with TRG 0 or TRG 3.

CONCLUSION

NAR score, in particular, appears to be the most powerful prognostic factor. It is important to consider various prognostic predictors for patients with different TRGs.

Neoadjuvant Gastric Score: How Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Affects Overall Survival and Adjuvant Benefit

INTRODUCTION

The Neoadjuvant Rectal score (NAR) was developed as a short-term surrogate for 5-year overall survival (OS) prediction in locally advanced rectal cancer on the basis of response to neoadjuvant therapy. We aim to assess whether this score can be repurposed for locally advanced gastric adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical resection.

METHODS

Patients with gastric adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant systemic therapy followed by surgical resection were extracted from the National Cancer Database. Neoadjuvant Gastric (NAG) scores were calculated, and patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-score categories, with low scores predicting longer survival. Patients were propensity-matched 1:1:1 between the groups for OS comparison. We also matched patients within each group 1:1 per receipt of adjuvant therapy and compared 5-year OS.

RESULTS

There were 2,970 patients identified. NAG classified patients into low- (n = 396, 13.3%), intermediate-(n = 756, 25.5%), and high (n = 1818, 61.2%) groups. After propensity matching, 5-year OS was significantly different between the matched groups (low-NAG 82%, intermediate-NAG 73%, and high-NAG 39%; p < 0.001). NAG score grouping also predicted OS benefit of adjuvant therapy; low- and intermediate-NAG patients had no OS benefit with adjuvant therapy (86% vs. 84%; p = 0.492, and 77% vs. 74%; p = 0.382, respectively), whereas patients with high-NAG score had a 5-year OS benefit with adjuvant therapy (39% vs. 29%; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

NAR score may be repurposed to generate a prognostic tool in gastric adenocarcinoma to predict 5-year OS and has the potential to guide decision-making regarding allocation of adjuvant therapy. Further studies should prospectively validate these findings to confirm clinical utility.

Clinical trials of neoadjuvant immune checkpoint inhibitors for early-stage operable colon and rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have become first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR). Despite the remarkable response reported in preliminary trials, the role of ICI in patients with early-stage, operable CRC remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate trials on neoadjuvant ICI in operable CRC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Scoping review of clinical trial registries (Clinicaltrials.gov and EU clinical trial registers) and PubMed/Medline database of trials on neoadjuvant ICI for operable CRC was done up to December 2022.

RESULTS

Some 40 trials investigating neoadjuvant ICI for early-stage, operable CRC were identified, including five published trials and three conference abstracts. Preclinical phase I/II trial predominated with only three clinical phase III trials. Few trials investigated neoadjuvant ICI as the only intervention (monotherapy). Trials in rectal cancer were designed for combined ICI with chemo(radio)therapy, only 8 trials stating an MSI/dMMR status for inclusion, one designed for MSS/pMMR only and, the rest agnostic for MMR status. Thirty-eight (95%) trials investigated programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors. PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors were combined with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor or with cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein-4 (CTLA-4) inhibitor, in two trials each, respectively. Pathological complete response as primary outcome after surgery was the most frequently used study endpoint. In rectal cancer, six trials included a "watch and wait" strategy for patients with complete clinical response. No "watch and wait" study design for colon cancer after neoadjuvant ICI were identified.

CONCLUSION

High response rates from neoadjuvant ICI in early-stage colon and rectal cancer are reported in phase I/II studies. Contemporary trial designs are heterogeneous, with few comparable inclusion criteria, use of several drug combinations and durations and, wide variation of endpoints reported. Harmonizing clinical and translational aspects including survival data is needed for improved future trial designs with clinical impact.

The neoadjuvant rectal score and a novel magnetic resonance imaging based neoadjuvant rectal score are stage independent predictors of long-term outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score is an early surrogate for longer-term outcomes in rectal cancer undergoing radiotherapy and resection. In an era of increasing organ preservation, resection specimens are not always available to calculate the NAR score. Post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) re-staging of regression is subjective, limiting reproducibility. We explored the potential for a novel MRI-based NAR score (mrNAR) adapted from the NAR formula.

METHODS

Locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy (nCRT) and surgery were retrospectively identified between 2008 and 2020 in a single cancer network. mrNAR was calculated by adapting the NAR formula, replacing pathological (p) stages with post-nCRT MR stages (ymr). Cox regression assessed relationships between clinicopathological characteristics, NAR and mrNAR with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

In total, 381 NAR and 177 mrNAR scores were calculated. On univariate analysis NAR related to OS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-3.14, p = 0.001) and RFS (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.77-3.59, p = 0.001). NAR 3-year OS <8 was 95.3%, 8-16 was 88.6% and >16 was 80%. mrNAR related to OS (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.38-6.34, p = 0.005) and RFS (HR 2.99, 95% CI 1.49-6.00, p = 0.002). 3-year OS for mrNAR <8 was 96.2%, 8-16 was 92.4% and >16 was 78%. On multivariate analysis, mrNAR was a stage-independent predictor of OS and RFS. mrNAR corresponded to NAR score category in only 15% (positive predictive value 0.23) and 47.5% (positive predictive value 0.48) of cases for categories <8 and >16, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Neoadjuvant rectal score is validated as a surrogate end-point for long-term outcomes. mrNAR categories do not correlate with NAR but have stage-independent prognostic value. mrNAR may represent a novel surrogate end-point for future neoadjuvant treatments that focus on organ preservation.

Determinants of Pre-Surgical Treatment in Primary Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

When preoperative radiotherapy (RT) is best used in rectal cancer is subject to discussions and guidelines differ. To understand the selection mechanisms, we analysed treatment decisions in all patients diagnosed between 2010-2020 in two Swedish regions (Uppsala with a RT department and Dalarna without). Information on staging and treatment (direct surgery, short-course RT, or combinations of RT/chemotherapy) in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry were used. Staging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) permitted a division into risk groups, according to national guidelines. Logistic regression explored associations between baseline characteristics and treatment, while Cohen's kappa tested congruence between clinical and pathologic stages. A total of 1150 patients without synchronous metastases were analysed. Patients from Dalarna were older, had less advanced tumours and were pre-treated less often (52% vs. 63%, p < 0.001). All MRI characteristics (T-/N-stage, MRF, EMVI) and tumour levels were important for treatment choice. Age affected if chemotherapy was added. The correlation between clinical and pathological T-stage was fair/moderate and poor for N-stage. The MRI-based risk grouping influenced treatment choice the most. Since the risk grouping was modified to diminish the pre-treated proportion, fewer patients were irradiated with time. MRI staging is far from optimal. A stronger wish to decrease irradiation may explain why fewer patients from Dalarna were irradiated, but inequality in health care cannot be ruled out.

Association of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, radiotherapy fractionation/technique, and risk of development of distant metastasis among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

We investigated the prognostic impact of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and whether modifiable factors in radiotherapy (RT) influenced the NLR.

METHODS

Data of 1386 patients who were treated with neoadjuvant RT and concurrent or sequential chemotherapy for LARC between 2006 and 2019 were evaluated. Most patients (97.8%) were treated with long-course RT (LCRT; 50-50.4 Gy in 25-28 fractions) using three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) (n = 851) or helical tomotherapy (n = 504), and 30 patients underwent short-course RT (SCRT; 25 Gy in 5 fractions, followed by XELOX administration for 6 weeks). Absolute neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were obtained at initial diagnosis, before and during the preoperative RT course, and after preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy. The primary endpoint was distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS).

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 61.3 (4.1-173.7) months; the 5-year DMFS was 80.1% and was significantly associated with the NLR after RT but not before. A post-RT NLR ≥ 4 independently correlated with worse DMFS (hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.80), along with higher ypT and ypN stages. Post-RT NLR (≥ 4) more frequently increased following LCRT (vs. SCRT, odds ratio [OR] 2.77, p = 0.012) or helical tomotherapy (vs. 3D-CRT, OR 1.29, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased NLR after neoadjuvant RT is associated with increased distant metastasis risk and poor survival outcome in patients with LARC. Moreover, high NLR following RT is directly related to RT fractionation, delivery modality, and tumor characteristics. These results are hypothesis-generating only, and confirmatory studies are required.

Rationale and design of a prospective, multicenter, phase II clinical trial of safety and efficacy evaluation of long course neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus tislelizumab followed by total mesorectal excision for locally advanced rectal cancer (NCRT-PD1-LARC trial)

BACKGROUND

Long course radiotherapy plus neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by resection (total mesorectal excision, TME) has accepted widespread recognized in the treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Tislelizumab, an anti-PD1 humanized IgG4 monoclonal antibody, has been demonstrated with clinical activity and is approved for treating recurrent/refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma and locally advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma in China. However, the safety and efficacy of long course (neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, NCRT) plus tislelizumab followed by TME for LARC is still uncertain.

METHODS

This NCRT-PD1-LARC trial will be a prospective, multicenter and phase II clinical trial designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of LARC patients treated with long course NCRT plus tislelizumab followed by TME. This trial will consecutively enroll 50 stage II/III LARC patients (cT3N0M0 and cT1-3N1-2M0) with the tumor distal location ≤ 7 cm from anal verge at 7 centers in China. The enrolled patients will receive long course radiotherapy (50 Gy/25 f, 2 Gy/f, 5 days/week) and three 21-day cycles capecitabine (1000 mg/m2, bid, po, day1-14) plus three 21-day cycles tislelizumab (200 mg, iv.gtt, day8), followed by TME 6-8 weeks after the end of radiotherapy. The primary efficacy endpoint will be the pathological complete response (pCR) rate, which is defined as absence of viable tumor cells in the primary tumor and lymph nodes.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, this trial is the first multicenter clinical trial in China to assess the safety and efficacy of NCRT plus anti-PD1 therapy followed by TME to treat patients with LARC. NCRT followed by TME was recognized as the most recommended treatment against LARC while could not be completely satisfied in clinic. This study expects to provide a solid basis and encouraging outcomes for this promising combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy and immunotherapy in LARC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Name of the registry: ClinicalTrials.gov.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04911517. Date of registration: 23 May 2021. URL of trial registry record: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT04911517?id=BFH-NCRTPD&draw=2&rank=1 .

OUP accepted manuscript

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