Previous abortion is a positive predictor for ongoing pregnancy in the next cycle in women with repeated IVF failures

Establishment and validation of a nomogram for subsequent first-cycle live births in patients diagnosed with recurrent implantation failure: a population-based analysis

Background

The inability of patients with recurrent implantation failure (RIF) to achieve pregnancy and a live birth after multiple high-quality embryo transfer treatments has been recognized as a major obstacle to successful application of artificial reproductive technologies. The objective of this study was to establish and validate a nomogram for prediction of subsequent first-cycle live births to guide clinical practice in patients diagnosed with RIF.

Methods

A total of 538 patients who underwent in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment and were first diagnosed with RIF at the Reproductive Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University between January 2017 and December 2020 were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=408) and a validation set (n=175) in a ratio of 7:3. A nomogram model was constructed using the training set based on the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and validated in the validation set.

Results

Age, body mass index, duration of RIF, endometrial thickness, type of embryo transferred, and number of previous biochemical pregnancies were included in the nomogram for prediction of subsequent first-cycle live births in patients diagnosed with RIF. Analysis of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis showed that our predictive model for live births had excellent performance.

Conclusion

We have developed and validated a novel predictive model that estimates a woman's chances of having a live birth after a diagnosis of RIF and provides clinicians with a personalized clinical decision-making tool.

Conception after early IVF pregnancy loss: should we wait?

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is the interval length between an early pregnancy loss and the following treatment cycle a predictor for achieving clinical pregnancy among IVF patients?

DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study of 257 women who reinitiated treatment after first-trimester IVF pregnancy loss was conducted at a tertiary, university-affiliated medical centre between 1 January 2014 to 1 January 2018. Women aged 18-40 years, with normal uterine cavity, who experienced first-trimester pregnancy loss at less than 14 weeks after IVF, were included. Miscarriages were classified as spontaneous, biochemical, medical or surgical.

RESULTS

Among 257 women, interval to subsequent IVF treatment was not associated with achieving pregnancy. Patients after biochemical pregnancy (72.7 ± 56.4, median 60 days) or spontaneous miscarriage (97.7 ± 93.1, median 66 days) had shorter intervals to next cycle, compared with medical (111.9 ± 103.2, median 65 days) or surgical (123.4 ± 111.1, median 84 days) (Kaplan-Meier, P = 0.03) miscarriages. Logistic regression analysis showed that the chance of subsequent pregnancy was affected by the number of embryos transferred (P = 0.009) and the type of miscarriage. Medical (P = 0.005) and surgical (P = 0.017) miscarriages were related to lower likelihood of pregnancy compared with biochemical pregnancy (reference group). When pregnancy was achieved in the first post-miscarriage cycle, the chance of live birth increased with shorter intervals (median 57.5 days), whereas second miscarriage was related to longer intervals (median 82.5 days) between miscarriage and subsequent IVF cycle (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

On the basis of this cohort, IVF should not be postponed after pregnancy loss, as shorter intervals were associated with greater likelihood of live birth.

Predictive factors for biochemical pregnancy in intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles

The aim of this study was to investigate which factors contribute to the incidence of biochemical pregnancy (BP) in intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles. This cohort study included cycles performed from June 2010 to September 2016 in a private, university-affiliated IVF centre. Cycles were split into four groups, depending on the pregnancy outcomes: Clinical Pregnancy (CP, n = 903), Biochemical Pregnancy (BP, n = 55), Miscarriage (MI, n = 142) and Negative Pregnancy (NP, n = 2034). The effects of ovarian stimulation, laboratory data and seminal parameters on pregnancy outcomes were evaluated using adjusted general linear models. Discriminant analyses were conducted to construct a model for pregnancy prediction and to establish cut-offs for BP. The total sperm count (p = 0.035), total and progressive sperm motility (p = 0.001 and p = 0.023, respectively), total motile sperm count (TMSC, p = 0.029) and the endometrial thickness (p < 0.001) were lower among BP group cycles. Lower rates of high-quality cleavage-stage embryos were observed in the BP group compared to CP and MI groups (p < 0.001). In discriminant analyses, cut-offs for BP prediction were established for the following factors: endometrial thickness < 11 mm, sperm motility < 55.5% and total dose of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH)> 2400 IU. The incidence of biochemical pregnancy was four times higher when the aforementioned factors did not meet the defined cut-offs. The combination of suboptimal endometrial development and poor seminal and embryo quality contribute to an increased incidence of biochemical pregnancy in ICSI cycles.

Predictive value of serum progesterone level on β-hCG check day in women with previous repeated miscarriages after in vitro fertilization

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive value of the progesterone level at the beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) check day for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles in women with previous unexplained repeated miscarriages.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred and forty-eight women, with visible gestational sac after IVF, were recruited in this observational study. All subjects had unexplained recurrent miscarriages in more than two previous IVF cycles. The progesterone level at the β-hCG check day (i.e. 14 days after oocyte retrieval) was assessed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the progesterone level was evaluated to predict the ongoing pregnancy or miscarriage outcomes.

RESULTS

The overall ongoing pregnancy rate was 60.8% (90/148). The cut-off value with β-hCG levels higher than 126.5 mIU/mL and with progesterone levels higher than 25.2 ng/mL could be the predictive factors for ongoing pregnancy maintenance (AUC = 0.788 and 0.826; sensitivity = 0.788 and 0.723; specificity = 0.689 and 0.833; P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). The miscarriage rates were 19.5% (15/77) in the women with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and 13.0% (10/77) in those with > 25.2 ng/mL. In the comparison of the ROC curves between both values, a similar significance was found. The subjects with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL showed higher ongoing pregnancy rates [98.0% (49/50) vs. 41.8% (41/98)] than those with β-hCG ≤ 126.5 mIU/mL or progesterone ≤ 25.2 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

The progesterone level at 14 days after oocyte retrieval can be a good predictive marker for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in women with repeated IVF failure with miscarriage, together with the β-hCG level. The combined cut-off value of progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL and β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL may suggest a good prognosis.

Biochemical pregnancy and spontaneous abortion in first IVF cycles are negative predictors for subsequent cycles: an over 10,000 cases cohort study

PURPOSE

To identify whether biochemical pregnancy (BP) and spontaneous abortion (SA) cases have the same clinical characteristics in assisted reproductive therapy (ART), and to assess its predictive value for the subsequent cycles.

METHODS

Retrospectively reviewed 12,174 cycles in the first in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) cycle from January 2009 to December 2012 of Peking University Third Hospital Reproductive Medical Center. Besides those patients who reached ongoing pregnancy stage, 7,598 cases were divided into three groups: group 1, lack of pregnancy (n = 6,651); group 2, BP (n = 520); and group 3, SA (n = 427). We compared the basic status of patients of the three groups, including ages, body mass index, basic hormone levels, controlled ovarian hyperstimulation protocols, amount of gonadotropin use, and endometrium thickness. The reproductive outcome of the next embryo transfer cycles of the three groups was analyzed.

RESULTS

520 patients ended as BP, and 427 patients ended as SA. The age, primary infertility proportion, body mass index, basic FSH level and basic E2 level were similar among groups. Endometrial thickness, controlled ovarian hyperstimulation protocol, Gn dosage, average oocyte retrieval and ET numbers were also similar. Multivariate analysis showed that only the age (P = 0.037, OR 1.060, 95 % CI 1.001-1.120) and endometrium thickness on hCG administration day (P = 0.029, OR 1.136, 95 % CI 1.013-1.275) may result in the differences between BP and SA groups. In the subsequent ET cycles, the total BP rate was 4.37 %, clinical pregnancy rate was 37.28 %, and miscarriage rate was 8.18 %. The clinical pregnancy rates were similar among groups. However, BP group still had the highest BP rate (P < 0.05, 7.97 vs. 4.01 % and 5.28 %), BP and SA group had higher miscarriage rate (P < 0.05, 11.76 % and 14.75 vs. 7.41 %).

CONCLUSION

BP and SA in first IVF cycles had negative predictive value for subsequent ART outcomes.