Conception and pregnancy outcome after laparoscopic treatment of subtle distal fallopian tube abnormalities in infertile women: a prospective cohort study

Derivation and validation of the first web-based nomogram to predict the spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery using machine learning models

Objective

Infertility remains a significant global burden over the years. Reproductive surgery is an effective strategy for infertile women. Early prediction of spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery is of high interest for the patients seeking the infertility treatment. However, there are no high-quality models and clinical applicable tools to predict the probability of natural conception after reproductive surgery.

Methods

The eligible data involving 1013 patients who operated for infertility between June 2016 and June 2021 in Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital in China, were randomly divided into training and internal testing cohorts. 195 subjects from the Linyi People's Hospital in China were considered for external validation. Both univariate combining with multivariate logistic regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm were performed to identify independent predictors. Multiple common machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and extreme gradient boosting, were employed to construct the predictive models. The optimal model was verified by evaluating the model performance in both the internal and external validation datasets.

Results

Six clinical indicators, including female age, infertility type, duration of infertility, intraoperative diagnosis, ovulation monitoring, and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level, were screened out. Based on the logistic regression model's superior clinical predictive value, as indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in both the internal (0.870) and external (0.880) validation sets, we ultimately selected it as the optimal model. Consequently, we utilized it to generate a web-based nomogram for predicting the probability of spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery. Furthermore, the calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, the decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis (CIC) demonstrated that the model has superior calibration degree, clinical net benefit and generalization ability, which were confirmed by both internal and external validations.

Conclusion

Overall, our developed first nomogram with online operation provides an early and accurate prediction for the probability of natural conception after reproductive surgery, which helps clinicians and infertile couples make sensible decision of choosing the mode of subsequent conception, natural or IVF, to further improve the clinical practices of infertility treatment.

The Clinical Significance of Subtle Distal Fallopian Tube Abnormalities: A Multicentre Prospective Observational Study

Background

Subtle distal fallopian tube abnormalities are a group of diseases characterised by small variations in tubal anatomy. The clinical significance of these abnormalities need to be studied.

Objectives

The purpose of this multicentre prospective observational study was to investigate whether subtle distal fallopian tube abnormalities are related to infertility and endometriosis.

Materials and Methods

The investigation was carried out in five medical centres in China and France from February to July 2021 and included reproductive-age patients who underwent gynaecological laparoscopy. Subtle abnormalities included Hydatid of Morgagni (HM) , fimbrial agglutination, tubal diverticula, accessory ostium, fimbrial phimosis, and accessory fallopian tube.

Results

642 patients were enrolled in the study and 257 (40.0%) were diagnosed with subtle tube abnormalities. Hydatid of Morgagni was the most common abnormality (22.7%; n=146), followed by fimbrial agglutination (19.8%; n=127), tubal diverticula (6.9%; n=44), accessory tube (2.0%; n=13), and tubal accessory ostium (1.9%; n=12). Fimbrial phimosis was the least common abnormality (0.3%; n=2). The prevalence of subtle fallopian tube abnormalities was significantly higher among infertile patients (188/375, 50.1%) than those without history of infertility (69/267, 25.8%, ᶍ2=38.332, P=0.000). 209 patients were diagnosed with endometriosis during surgery, and the prevalence of subtle abnormalities was significantly higher in the endometriosis group than in those without endometriosis (61.2%, [128/209] vs. 29.8% [129/433], ᶍ2=58.086, P=0.000).

Conclusions

Higher prevalence of subtle tubal abnormalities suggests that they may contribute to infertility. They are highly related to endometriosis and indicate fimbrial abnormalities of endometriosis.

What is new?

This is the largest multicentre study to investigate the subtle distal fallopian tube abnormalities in infertile women. Compared to previous studies, this study includes the main subtle distal abnormalities and the control group patients without a history of infertility.

Tubal Pathologies and Fertility Outcomes: A Review

Anomalies of the fallopian tubes represent one of the most significant elements that might contribute to reproductive issues. They can be inherited or acquired; they are among the most important problems of the profession. Although there is much discussion regarding which therapies for each tubal disease are the most effective and result in the best long-term reproductive outcomes. During the evaluation of an infertile couple, certain anomalies of the fallopian tubes are frequently discovered. These abnormalities were thought, for a long time, to not have an influence on fertility; however, in recent years, researchers have discovered that they seem to play a crucial role in fertility problems. Couples in industrialized countries are postponing childbearing, which raises the risk of women developing tubal diseases before they are ready to become pregnant. These disorders may have a negative impact on a woman's ability to get pregnant. The goals of this study are to conduct research to gain a deeper understanding of the recent advancements that have been made in the field of tubal diseases and to carry out an evaluation of the medical conducts that have the best fertility outcomes. We searched both Medline and PubMed, paying special attention to the most relevant articles that have been added to either database over the course of the last six years.