Analysis of long-term statistical data of cobalt flows in the EU

Exploring the potential for improving material utilization efficiency to secure lithium supply for China's battery supply chain

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) is the key technology for climate change mitigation. The sustainability of LIB supply chain has caused widespread concern since the material utilization efficiency of LIB supply chain has not been well investigated. This study aims to fill this research gap by conducting a dynamic material flow analysis of lithium in China from 2015 to 2021. Results indicate that within the temporal boundary, lithium flow and in-use stock grew significantly in China due to the rapid development of the EV market, with lithium flow in domestic production of basic chemicals increasing by 614% to 100 kt, end-use consumption increasing by 160% to 35 kt, and in-use stock increasing by 62% to 195 kt. China has been a net importer of lithium, of which cumulative imports and exports were 343 kt and 169 kt, respectively. In addition, 103 kt of lithium was converted to inventories or was lost during the processing from 2015 to 2021. By optimizing inventory and processing, developing substitutes for lithium for non-battery applications, and improving lithium recycling, China's net import dependency of lithium could be reduced from 27%-86% to 0%-16%. Our study demonstrates that it is urgent to improve material utilization efficiency so that the lithium resource supply can be secured.

Assessing Short-Term Supply Disruption Impacts within Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment─A Case Study of Electric Vehicles

In this article, the recently published SPOTTER approach, which allows for identifying potential supply disruption impacts along the entire supply chain within life cycle sustainability assessment in the short term (i.e., < 5 years), is applied to a case study addressing the cobalt and aluminum supply chains of electric vehicles (EVs) used in Switzerland. Existing studies within the field assessing supply disruption impacts for EVs and other technologies focus on impacts related to raw material supply and thus neglect impacts along full supply chains. The present study identifies hotspots and overall impacts along the full supply chains by analyzing six supply disruption events (i.e., geopolitical instability, child labor restrictions, trade barriers, price volatility, limited recyclability, and economic resource depletion) for two impact categories (i.e., cost variability and limited availability). Identified hotspots suggest that supply chains are potentially disrupted mainly through events occurring in Asian, African, or other developing countries and affecting the Western economies. The highest risks are indicated in relation to the supply of EVs, EV wiring, traction batteries, cobalt powder, and cobalt ore. Suitable measures to mitigate these supply risks are suggested showing that some of the suggestions could not have been made based on the results of existing studies.

Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of critical battery materials, such as cobalt, for electric mobility transitions. While battery technology and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand–supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.

New study finds cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks, however a cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term, even under the most technologically optimistic scenario.