Identifying out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with no chance of survival: An independent validation of prediction rules

Termination of Resuscitation Rules and Survival Among Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Termination of resuscitation (TOR) rules may help guide prehospital decisions to stop resuscitation, with potential effects on patient outcomes and health resource use. Rules with high sensitivity risk increasing inappropriate transport of nonsurvivors, while rules without excellent specificity risk missed survivors. Further examination of the performance of TOR rules in estimating survival of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is needed.

Objective

To determine whether TOR rules can accurately identify patients who will not survive an OHCA.

Data Sources

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, the MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases were searched from database inception up to January 11, 2024. There were no restrictions on language, publication date, or time frame of the study.

Study Selection

Two reviewers independently screened records, first by title and abstract and then by full text. Randomized clinical trials, case-control studies, cohort studies, cross-sectional studies, retrospective analyses, and modeling studies were included. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were reviewed to identify primary studies. Studies predicting outcomes other than death, in-hospital studies, animal studies, and non-peer-reviewed studies were excluded.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Two reviewers assessed risk of bias using the Revised Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. Cochrane Screening and Diagnostic Tests Methods Group recommendations were followed when conducting a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies (PRISMA-DTA) statement and is registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42019131010).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Sensitivity and specificity tables with 95% CIs and bivariate summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were produced. Estimates of effects at different prevalence levels were calculated. These estimates were used to evaluate the practical implications of TOR rule use at different prevalence levels.

Results

This review included 43 nonrandomized studies published between 1993 and 2023, addressing 29 TOR rules and involving 1 125 587 cases. Fifteen studies reported the derivation of 20 TOR rules. Thirty-three studies reported external data validations of 17 TOR rules. Seven TOR rules had data to facilitate meta-analysis. One clinical study was identified. The universal termination of resuscitation rule had the best performance, with pooled sensitivity of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.54-0.71), pooled specificity of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.94), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 20.45 (95% CI, 13.15-31.83).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this review, there was insufficient robust evidence to support widespread implementation of TOR rules in clinical practice. These findings suggest that adoption of TOR rules may lead to missed survivors and increased resource utilization.

Can absence of cardiac activity on point-of-care echocardiography predict death in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest? A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the accuracy of the absence of cardiac motion on point-of-care echocardiography (PCE) in predicting termination of resuscitation (TOR), short-term death (STD), and long-term death (LTD), in adult patients with cardiac arrest of all etiologies in out-of-hospital and emergency department setting.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted based on PRISMA guidelines. A literature search in Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, WHO registry, and ClinicalTrials.gov was performed from inspection to August 2022. Risk of bias was evaluated using QUADAS-2 tool. Meta-analysis was divided into medical cardiac arrest (MCA) and traumatic cardiac arrest (TCA). Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using bivariate random-effects, and heterogeneity was analyzed using I2 statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 27 studies (3657 patients) were included in systematic review. There was a substantial variation in methodologies across the studies, with notable difference in inclusion criteria, PCE timing, and cardiac activity definition. In MCA (15 studies, 2239 patients), the absence of cardiac activity on PCE had a sensitivity of 72% [95% CI 62-80%] and specificity of 80% [95% CI 58-92%] to predict LTD. Although the low numbers of studies in TCA preluded meta-analysis, all patients who lacked cardiac activity on PCE eventually died.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of cardiac motion on PCE for MCA predicts higher likelihood of death but does not have sufficient accuracy to be used as a stand-alone tool to terminate resuscitation. In TCA, the absence of cardiac activity is associated with 100% mortality rate, but low number of patients requires further studies to validate this finding. Future work would benefit from a standardized protocol for PCE timing and agreement on cardiac activity definition.

Selection of patients for mechanical circulatory support for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVE

To describe characteristics of patients admitted with refractory cardiac arrest for possible extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) and gain insight into the reasons for refraining from treatment in some.

METHODS

Nationwide retrospective cohort study involving all tertiary centres providing ECPR in Denmark. Consecutive patients admitted with ongoing chest compression for evaluation for ECPR treatment were enrolled. Presenting characteristics, duration of no-flow and low-flow time, end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO₂), lactate and pH, and recording of reasons for refraining from ECPR documented by the treating team were recorded. Outcomes were survival to intensive care unit admission and survival to hospital discharge.

RESULTS

Of 579 patients admitted with refractory cardiac arrest for possible ECPR, 221 patients (38%) proceeded to ECPR and 358 patients (62%) were not considered candidates. Median prehospital low-flow time was 70 min (IQR 56 to 85) in ECPR patients and 62 min (48 to 81) in no-ECPR patients, p<0.001. Intra-arrest transport was more than 50 km in 92 (42%) ECPR patients and 135 in no-ECPR patients (38%), p=0.25. The leading causes for not initiating ECPR stated by the treating team were duration of low-flow time in 39%, severe metabolic derangement in 35%, and in 31% low ETCO₂. The prevailing combination of contributing factors were non-shockable rhythm, low ETCO₂, and metabolic derangement or prehospital low-flow time combined with low ETCO₂. Survival to discharge was only achieved in six patients (1.7%) in the no-ECPR group.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large nationwide study of patients admitted for possible ECPR, two-thirds of patients were not treated with ECPR. The most frequent reasons to abstain from ECPR were long duration of prehospital low-flow time, metabolic derangement and low ETCO₂.

End-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) at intubation and its increase after 10 minutes resuscitation predicts survival with good neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients

AIM

To evaluate whether end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) value at intubation and its early increase (10 min) after intubation predict both the survival to hospital admission and the survival at hospital discharge, including good neurological outcome (CPC 1-2), in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).

METHODS

All consecutive OHCA patients of any etiology between 2015 and 2018 in Pavia Province (Italy) and Ticino Region (Switzerland) were considered. Patients died before ambulance arrival, with a "do-not-resuscitate" order, without ETCO2 value or with incomplete data were excluded.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 668 patients. An ETCO2 value at intubation > 20 mmHg and its increase 10 min after intubation were independent predictors (after correction for known predictors of OHCA outcome) of survival to hospital admission and survival at hospital discharge. Relative to hospital discharge with good neurological outcome, ETCO2 at intubation and its 10-min change were confirmed predictors both individually and in a bivariable analysis (OR 1.83, 95 %CI 1.02-3.3; p = 0.04 and OR 3.9, 95 %CI 1.97-7.74; p < 0.001, respectively). This was confirmed also when accounting for gender, age, etiology and location. After further adjustment for bystander and CPR status, presenting rhythm and EMS arrival time, the ETCO2 change remained an independent predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

ETCO2 value > 20 mmHg at intubation and its increase during resuscitation improve the prediction of survival at hospital discharge with good neurological outcome of OHCA patients. ETCO2 increase during resuscitation is a more powerful predictor than ETCO2 at intubation. A larger prospective study to confirm this finding appears warranted.

Extracorporeal Life Support in Accidental Hypothermia with Cardiac Arrest-A Narrative Review

Severely hypothermic patients, especially suffering cardiac arrest, require highly specialized treatment. The most common problems affecting the recognition and treatment seem to be awareness, logistics, and proper planning. In severe hypothermia, pathophysiologic changes occur in the cardiovascular system leading to dysrhythmias, decreased cardiac output, decreased central nervous system electrical activity, cold diuresis, and noncardiogenic pulmonary edema. Cardiac arrest, multiple organ dysfunction, and refractory vasoplegia are indicative of profound hypothermia. The aim of these narrative reviews is to describe the peculiar pathophysiology of patients suffering cardiac arrest from accidental hypothermia. We describe the good chances of neurologic recovery in certain circumstances, even in patients presenting with unwitnessed cardiac arrest, asystole, and the absence of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Guidance on patient selection, prognostication, and treatment, including extracorporeal life support, is given.

[Ethics of resuscitation and end of life decisions]

These European Resuscitation Council Ethics guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for the ethical, routine practice of resuscitation and end-of-life care of adults and children. The guideline primarily focus on major ethical practice interventions (i.e. advance directives, advance care planning, and shared decision making), decision making regarding resuscitation, education, and research. These areas are tightly related to the application of the principles of bioethics in the practice of resuscitation and end-of-life care.

European Resuscitation Council Guidelines 2021: Ethics of resuscitation and end of life decisions

These European Resuscitation Council Ethics guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for the ethical, routine practice of resuscitation and end-of-life care of adults and children. The guideline primarily focus on major ethical practice interventions (i.e. advance directives, advance care planning, and shared decision making), decision making regarding resuscitation, education, and research. These areas are tightly related to the application of the principles of bioethics in the practice of resuscitation and end-of-life care.

The prognostic value of early lactate clearance for survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Prognostication of survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains challenging with current guidelines recommending the prognostication no earlier than 72 h after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Prognostic factors that could be used earlier after ROSC, like lactate clearance, are still being studied.

OBJECTIVES

This paper aims to investigate the prognostic strength of early lactate clearance for survival after OHCA.

METHODS

This retrospective observational single-center study focuses on patients for whom ROSC was achieved after OHCA. Patients ≥18 years admitted between September 2012 and January 2019, for which arterial serum lactate measurements were available immediately at and 3 h after hospital admission (T0 and T3), were included.

RESULTS

192 patients were included. Lactate clearance at T3 (p < 0.001) was identified as an independent predictor for 24 h, 48 h and 72 h survival. Witnessed arrest, bystander CPR and initial shockable rhythm were independent significant predictors for long term survival after ROSC (1 month, 3 months and 1 year; p < 0.05), but not for 24 h survival. Age (above or below 65 years) was not significant for predicting survival. Upon combination of witnessed arrest, bystander CPR and initial shockable rhythm in a multivariate logistic regression model for long term survival, the initial rhythm was the dominant factor in the combined model, making witnessed arrest and bystander CPR redundant.

CONCLUSION

Lactate clearance at T3 after ROSC is associated with 24 h, 48 h and 72 h survival. Further research is needed to determine how to incorporate lactate clearance as part of a clinically useful tool to predict long term survival.

Developing a time-adaptive prediction model for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Results from a nationwide cohort study in Korea (Preprint)

Background

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a serious public health issue, and predicting the prognosis of OHCA patients can assist clinicians in making decisions about the treatment of patients, use of hospital resources, or termination of resuscitation.

Objective

This study aimed to develop a time-adaptive conditional prediction model (TACOM) to predict clinical outcomes every minute.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational study using data from the Korea OHCA Registry in South Korea. In this study, we excluded patients with trauma, those who experienced return of spontaneous circulation before arriving in the emergency department (ED), and those who did not receive cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in the ED. We selected patients who received CPR in the ED. To develop the time-adaptive prediction model, we organized the training data set as ongoing CPR patients by the minute. A total of 49,669 patients were divided into 39,602 subjects for training and 10,067 subjects for validation. We compared random forest, LightGBM, and artificial neural networks as the prediction model methods. Model performance was quantified using the prediction probability of the model, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and area under the precision recall curve.

Results

Among the three algorithms, LightGBM showed the best performance. From 0 to 30 min, the AUROC of the TACOM for predicting good neurological outcomes ranged from 0.910 (95% CI 0.910-0.911) to 0.869 (95% CI 0.865-0.871), whereas that for survival to hospital discharge ranged from 0.800 (95% CI 0.797-0.800) to 0.734 (95% CI 0.736-0.740). The prediction probability of the TACOM showed similar flow with cohort data based on a comparison with the conventional model’s prediction probability.

Conclusions

The TACOM predicted the clinical outcome of OHCA patients per minute. This model for predicting patient outcomes by the minute can assist clinicians in making rational decisions for OHCA patients.