Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Variability of SMAP Soil Moisture Accuracy in a Deciduous Forest Region

The goal of this study is to assess the temporal variability of the performance of the Soil Moisture Active Passive, SMAP, soil moisture retrievals throughout the seasons as surface conditions change. In-situ soil moisture observations from a network deployed in Millbrook, New York, between 2019 and 2021 are used. The network comprises 25 stations distributed across a 33-km SMAP pixel with a predominantly forest land cover. The in-situ soil moisture observations were collected between 6 and 7 a.m., local time. This article covers the assessment of the temporal accuracy of SMAP soil moisture by incorporating various upscaling methods. Four upscaling methods are used in this study: arithmetic average, Voronoi diagram, topographic wetness index, and land cover weighted average. The agreement between SMAP soil moisture and the upscaled in-situ measurements was gauged using the root-mean-squared difference, the mean difference, and the unbiased root-mean-squared difference. The consistency of the temporal variability of SMAP soil moisture data resulting from the four upscaling methods was analyzed. The results revealed that SMAP retrievals (soil moisture data) are systematically higher than in situ observations during the different seasons. The results indicate that the highest performance of SMAP soil moisture retrievals is in September with an ubRMSD value of 0.03 m3.m−3 for the morning and evening overpasses, which can be attributed to a lower vegetation density during the seasonal transition. The agreement with in-situ observations degrades during March–April with ubRMSD values above 0.04 m3.m−3, reaching ~0.06 m3.m−3 in April, which can be attributed to the non-reliability of in-situ measurements due to freeze\thaw transition and the challenging determination of the soil effective temperature. The ubRMSD is also higher than 0.04 m3.m−3 in the months of May–June, which could be due to the introduced vegetation effect during the growth season. These findings are consistent across all the upscaling methods. The average ubRMSD over the study period is 0.055 m3.m−3, which falls short of meeting the mission’s performance target. This study proves the need to enhance SMAP retrieval over forest sites.

Seasonal Estimates and Uncertainties of Snow Accumulation from CloudSat Precipitation Retrievals

CloudSat is often the only measurement of snowfall rate available at high latitudes, making it a valuable tool for understanding snow climatology. The capability of CloudSat to provide information on seasonal and subseasonal time scales, however, has yet to be explored. In this study, we use subsampled reanalysis estimates to predict the uncertainties of CloudSat snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation measurements at various space and time resolutions. An idealized/simulated subsampling model predicts that CloudSat may provide seasonal SWE estimates with median percent errors below 50% at spatial scales as small as 2° × 2°. By converting these predictions to percent differences, we can evaluate CloudSat snowfall accumulations against a blend of gridded SWE measurements during frozen time periods. Our predictions are in good agreement with results. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the percent differences between the two measurements all match predicted values within eight percentage points. We interpret these results to suggest that CloudSat snowfall estimates are in sufficient agreement with other, thoroughly vetted, gridded SWE products. This implies that CloudSat may provide useful estimates of snow accumulation over remote regions within seasonal time scales.

Effect of Structural Uncertainty in Passive Microwave Soil Moisture Retrieval Algorithm

Passive microwave sensors use a radiative transfer model (RTM) to retrieve soil moisture (SM) using brightness temperatures (T_B) at low microwave frequencies. Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is a key input to the RTM. Retrieval algorithms can analytically invert the RTM using dual-polarized T_B measurements to retrieve the VOD and SM concurrently. Algorithms in this regard typically use the τ-ω types of models, which consist of two third-order polynomial equations and, thus, can have multiple solutions. Through this work, we find that uncertainty occurs due to the structural indeterminacy that is inherent in all τ-ω types of models in passive microwave SM retrieval algorithms. In the process, a new analytical solution for concurrent VOD and SM retrieval is presented, along with two widely used existing analytical solutions. All three solutions are applied to a fixed framework of RTM to retrieve VOD and SM on a global scale, using X-band Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) T_B data. Results indicate that, with structural uncertainty, there ensues a noticeable impact on the VOD and SM retrievals. In an era where the sensitivity of retrieval algorithms is still being researched, we believe the structural indeterminacy of RTM identified here would contribute to uncertainty in the soil moisture retrievals.