A machine learning model to estimate ambient PM2.5 concentrations in industrialized highveld region of South Africa

IoT-based monitoring system and air quality prediction using machine learning for a healthy environment in Cameroon

This paper is aimed at developing an air quality monitoring system using machine learning (ML), Internet of Things (IoT), and other elements to predict the level of particulate matter and gases in the air based on the air quality index (AQI). It is an air quality assessor and therefore a means of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular, SDG 3.9 (substantial reduction of the health impacts of hazardous substances) and SDG 11.6 (reduction of negative impacts on cities and populations). AQI quantifies and informs the public about air pollutants and their adverse effects on public health. The proposed air quality monitoring device is low-cost and operates in real-time. It consists of a hardware unit that detects various pollutants to assess air quality as well as other airborne particles such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5). To predict air quality, the device was deployed from November 1, 2022, to February 4, 2023, in certain bauxite-rich areas of Adamawa and certain volcanic sites in western Cameroon. Therefore, machine learning algorithm models, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), XGBoost (XGB), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN) were applied to analyze the collected concentrations and predict the future state of air quality. The performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R-square), and root mean square error (RMSE). The obtained data in this study show that these pollutants are present in selected localities albeit to different extents. Moreover, the AQI values obtained range from 10 to 530, with a mean of 132.380 ± 63.705, corresponding to moderate air quality state but may induce an adverse effect on sensitive members of the population. This study revealed that XGB regression performed better in air quality forecasting with the highest R-squared (test score of 0.9991 and train score of 0.9999) and lowest RMSE (test score of 1.5748 and train score of 0. 0073) and MAE (test score of 0.0872 and train score of 0.0020), while the KNN model had the worst prediction (lowest R-squared and highest RMSE and MAE). This embryonic work is a prototype for projects in Cameroon as measurements are underway for a national spread over a longer period of time.

Prediction of atmospheric PM2.5 level by machine learning techniques in Isfahan, Iran

With increasing levels of air pollution, air quality prediction has attracted more attention. Mathematical models are being developed by researchers to achieve precise predictions. Monitoring and prediction of atmospheric PM2.5 levels, as a predominant pollutant, is essential in emission mitigation programs. In this study, meteorological datasets from 9 years in Isfahan city, a large metropolis of Iran, were applied to predict the PM2.5 levels, using four machine learning algorithms including Artificial Neural |Networks (ANNs), K-Nearest-Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector |Machines (SVMs) and ensembles of classification trees Random Forest (RF). The data from 7 air quality monitoring stations located in Isfahan City were taken into consideration. The Confusion Matrix and Cross-Entropy Loss were used to analyze the performance of classification models. Several parameters, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, precision, and the area under the curve (AUC), are computed to assess model performance. Finally, by introducing the predicted data for 2020 into ArcGIS software and using the IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) method, interpolation was conducted for the area of Isfahan city and the pollution map was illustrated for each month of the year. The results showed that, based on the accuracy percentage, the ANN model has a better performance (90.1%) in predicting PM2.5 grades compared to the other models for the applied meteorological dataset, followed by RF (86.1%), SVM (84.6%) and KNN (82.2%) models, respectively. Therefore, ANN modelling provides a feasible procedure for the managerial planning of air pollution control.

Application of satellite remote sensing data and random forest approach to estimate ground-level PM2.5 concentration in Northern region of Thailand

Numerous epidemiological studies have shown that particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter up to 2.5 μm (PM2.5) is associated with many health consequences, where PM2.5 concentration obtained from the monitoring station was normally applied as the exposure level, so that the concentration of PM2.5 in unmonitored areas has not been captured. The satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) product is then used to spatially predict ground truth of PM2.5 concentration that covers the locations with no air quality monitoring station, but this method has seldom been developed in Thailand. This study aimed at estimating ground-level PM2.5 concentration at 3 km × 3 km spatial resolution over Northern region of Thailand in 2021 using the random forest model integrating the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD products from Terra and Aqua satellites, meteorological factors, and land use data. A random forest model contained 100 decision trees was utilized to train the model, and 10-fold cross-validation approach was implemented to validate the model performance. The good consistency between actual (observed) and predicted concentrations of PM2.5 in Northern region of Thailand was observed, where a coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the model fitting were 0.803 and 14.30 μg/m3, respectively, and those of 10-fold cross-validation approach were 0.796 and 14.64 μg/m3, respectively. The three most important predictors for estimating the ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 in this study were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), relative humidity, and number of fire hotspot, respectively. Findings from this study revealed that integrating the MODIS AOD, meteorological variables, and land use data into the random forest model precisely and accurately estimated ground-level PM2.5 concentration over Northern region of Thailand that can be further used to investigate the effects of PM2.5 exposure on health consequences, even in unmonitored locations, in epidemiological studies.

Machine Learning Research Trends in Africa: A 30 Years Overview with Bibliometric Analysis Review

The machine learning (ML) paradigm has gained much popularity today. Its algorithmic models are employed in every field, such as natural language processing, pattern recognition, object detection, image recognition, earth observation and many other research areas. In fact, machine learning technologies and their inevitable impact suffice in many technological transformation agendas currently being propagated by many nations, for which the already yielded benefits are outstanding. From a regional perspective, several studies have shown that machine learning technology can help address some of Africa's most pervasive problems, such as poverty alleviation, improving education, delivering quality healthcare services, and addressing sustainability challenges like food security and climate change. In this state-of-the-art paper, a critical bibliometric analysis study is conducted, coupled with an extensive literature survey on recent developments and associated applications in machine learning research with a perspective on Africa. The presented bibliometric analysis study consists of 2761 machine learning-related documents, of which 89% were articles with at least 482 citations published in 903 journals during the past three decades. Furthermore, the collated documents were retrieved from the Science Citation Index EXPANDED, comprising research publications from 54 African countries between 1993 and 2021. The bibliometric study shows the visualization of the current landscape and future trends in machine learning research and its application to facilitate future collaborative research and knowledge exchange among authors from different research institutions scattered across the African continent.

Driving factors behind the continuous increase of long-term PM2.5-attributable health burden in India using the high-resolution global datasets from 2001 to 2020

Air pollution is the fourth leading global risk factor, whereas in India air pollution is reported as the highest risk factor with millions of premature deaths every year. Despite implementation of several air pollution control plans, PM_2.5 levels over India have not noticeably reduced. PM_2.5-associated health burdens in India have increased significantly in past decades. A fine resolution (0·01° × 0·01°) analysis of PM_2.5-attribulable premature deaths (rather than the coarse-level analysis) may elucidate the reason for this increase and inform and effective start-of-the-art state-level and national emission control strategies. This study quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of PM_2.5-attributable premature deaths from 2001 to 2020 and applied a decomposition analysis to dissect the contribution of various associated parameters, such as PM_2.5 concentration, population distribution and disease-specific baseline death rate. Results show significant spatiotemporal variations of PM_2.5 and associated health burden in India. During the study period, population weighted PM_2.5 value increased from 46.0 to 59.5 μg/m³ and associated non-communicable death increased around 87.6 %, from 1050 [95 % (CI): 880-1210] thousand to 1970 (95 % CI: 1658-2259) thousand. The states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh had the highest PM_2.5-attributable deaths. In these states, non-accidental deaths increased from 232.1, 112.7, 81.4, 79.1, 66.3 and 58.5 thousand in 2001 to 424.1, 226.7, 156.2, 154.5, 123.3 and 119.7 thousand in 2020. In per capita population (/10⁵ population), the highest PM_2.5-attributable deaths were observed in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Punjab. Throughout the study period, demographic changes outweighed the health burden and were responsible for ~62.8 % increase of PM_2.5-related non-accidental deaths across India, whereas the change in PM_2.5 concentration influenced only 18.7 %. The change in baseline mortality rate impacts differently for the estimation of disease-specific mortality changes. Our findings suggest more dynamic and comprehensive policies at state-specific level, especially for North India is very indispensable for the overall decrease of PM_2.5-related deaths in India.

Effects of short-term PM2.5 exposure on blood lipids among 197,957 people in eastern China

Globally, air pollution is amongst the most significant causes of premature death. Nevertheless, studies on the relationship between fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure and blood lipids have typically not been population-based. In a large, community-based sample of residents in Yixing city, we assessed the relationship between short-term outdoor PM_2.5 exposure and blood lipid concentrations. Participants who attended the physical examination were enrolled from Yixing People's hospital from 2015 to 2020. We collected general characteristics of participants, including gender and age, as well as test results of indicators of blood lipids. Data on daily meteorological factors were collected from the National Meteorological Data Sharing Center ( http://data.cma.cn/ ) and air pollutant concentrations were collected from the China Air Quality Online Monitoring and Analysis Platform ( https://www.aqistudy.cn/ ) during this period. We applied generalized additive models to estimate short-term effects of ambient PM_2.5 exposure on each measured blood lipid-related indicators and converted these indicators into dichotomous variables (non- hyperlipidemia and hyperlipidemia) to calculate risks of hyperlipidemia associated with PM_2.5 exposure. A total of 197,957 participants were included in the analysis with mean age 47.90 years (± SD, 14.28). The increase in PM_2.5 was significantly associated with hyperlipidemia (odds ratio (OR) 1.003, 95% CI 1.001-1.004), and it was still significant in subgroups of males and age < 60 years. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, triglyceride levels decreased by 0.5447% (95% CI - 0.7873, - 0.3015), the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration increased by 0.0127 mmol/L (95% CI 0.0099, 0.0156), the total cholesterol concentration increased by 0.0095 mmol/L (95% CI 0.0053, 0.0136), and no significant association was observed between PM_2.5 and the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. After excluding people with abnormal blood lipid concentrations, the associations remained significant except for the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. PM_2.5 was positively correlated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol, and negatively correlated with triglyceride, indicating PM_2.5 can potentially affect health through blood lipid levels.

Accounting for the aerosol type and additional satellite-borne aerosol products improves the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations

Fine airborne particles (diameter <2.5 μm; PM_2.5) are recognized as a major threat to human health due to their physicochemical properties: composition, size, shape, etc. However, normally only size-fraction-specific particle concentrations are monitored. Interestingly, although the aerosol type is reported as part of the aerosol optical depth retrieval from satellite observations, it has not been utilized, to date, as an auxiliary information/co-variate for PM_2.5 prediction. We developed Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models that account for this information when predicting surface PM_2.5. The models take as input only widely available data: satellite aerosol products with full cover and surface meteorological data. Distinct models were developed for AOD of specific aerosol types. Both the RF and XGBoost models performed well, showing moderate-to-high cross-validated adjusted R² (RF: 0.753-0.909; XGBoost: 0.741-0.903), depending on the aerosol type and other covariates. The weighted performance of the specific aerosol-type models was higher than of the RF and XGBoost baseline models, where all the AOD retrievals were used together (the common practice). Our approach can provide improved risk estimates due to exposure to PM_2.5, better resolved radiative forcing calculations, and tailored abatement surveillance of specific pollutants/sources.

Ensemble averaging using remote sensing data to model spatiotemporal PM10 concentrations in sparsely monitored South Africa

There is a paucity of air quality data in sub-Saharan African countries to inform science driven air quality management and epidemiological studies. We investigated the use of available remote-sensing aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to develop spatially and temporally resolved models to predict daily particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations across four provinces of South Africa (Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape) for the year 2016 in a two-staged approach. In stage 1, a Random Forest (RF) model was used to impute Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction AOD data for days where it was missing. In stage 2, the machine learner algorithms RF, Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression were used to model the relationship between ground-monitored PM₁₀ data, AOD and other spatial and temporal predictors. These were subsequently combined in an ensemble model to predict daily PM₁₀ concentrations at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution across the four provinces. An out-of-bag R² of 0.96 was achieved for the first stage model. The stage 2 cross-validated (CV) ensemble model captured 0.84 variability in ground-monitored PM₁₀ with a spatial CV R² of 0.48 and temporal CV R² of 0.80. The stage 2 model indicated an optimal performance of the daily predictions when aggregated to monthly and annual means. Our results suggest that a combination of remote sensing data, chemical transport model estimates and other spatiotemporal predictors has the potential to improve air quality exposure data in South Africa's major industrial provinces. In particular, the use of a combined ensemble approach was found to be useful for this area with limited availability of air pollution ground monitoring data.

Estimation of On-Road PM2.5 Distributions by Combining Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere With Microscale Geographic Predictors for Healthy Route Planning

How to reduce the health risks for commuters, caused by air pollution such as PM2.5 has always been an urgent issue needing to be solved. Proposed in this study, is a novel framework which enables greater avoidance of pollution and hence assists the provision of healthy travel. This framework is based on the estimation of on-road PM2.5 throughout the whole city. First, the micro-scale PM2.5 is predicted by land use regression (LUR) modeling enhanced by the use of the Landsat-8 top-of-atmosphere (TOA) data and microscale geographic predictors. In particular, the green view index (GVI) factor derived, the sky view factor, and the index-based built-up index, are incorporated within the TOA-LUR modeling. On-road PM2.5 distributions are then mapped in high-spatial-resolution. The maps obtained can be used to find healthy travel routes with less PM2.5. The proposed framework was applied in high-density Hong Kong by Landsat 8 images. External testing was based on mobile measurements. The results showed that the estimation performance of the proposed seasonal TOA-LUR Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression models is at a high-level with an R 2 of 0.70-0.90. The newly introduced GVI index played an important role in these estimations. The PM2.5 distribution maps at high-spatial-resolution were then used to develop an application providing Hong Kong residents with healthy route planning services. The proposed framework can, likewise, be applied in other cities to better ensure people's health when traveling, especially those in high-density cities.