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Jalali S, Liu L, Wang J, Kennedy SH, MacQueen G, Lebel C, Goldstein BL, Bray S, Addington J. Factors Associated with Transition to Serious Mental Illness. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY. REVUE CANADIENNE DE PSYCHIATRIE 2024; 69:79-88. [PMID: 37606525 PMCID: PMC10789229 DOI: 10.1177/07067437231195959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE There is increasing interest in early intervention and detection strategies for youth at-risk of developing a serious mental illness (SMI). Little is known about early factors that may be related to the later development of a SMI; thus, the aim of this study was to determine what clinical factors might relate to the development of in this study psychosis, bipolar disorder and severe or recurrent major depression in at-risk youth. METHOD The sample consisted of 162 youth aged 12-26 years at different stages of risk. Thirty-one participants developed a SMI during the study. Those who made a transition were compared on a range of baseline clinical and functional measures with those who did not make the transition. A Cox regression model was used to assess the association between measures and later development of a SMI. RESULTS Female sex, attenuated psychotic symptoms as assessed with the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms (SOPS) and ratings on the K-10 Distress Scale, were found to be significantly associated with the later transition to mental illness. Females were 2.77 times more likely to transition compared to males. For the SOPS and K-10 scales, there is a 14% increase in the transition rate relative to a one-scale increase in SOPS and a 7% increase in the transition rate relative to a one-point increase in the K-10. CONCLUSIONS Results from these longitudinal data provide further insight into the specific clinical measures that may be pertinent in early detection of mental illnesses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Jalali
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Lu Liu
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - JianLi Wang
- Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Sidney H. Kennedy
- Department of Psychiatry, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Arthur Sommer Rotenberg Chair in Suicide and Depression Studies, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Krembil Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Glenda MacQueen
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Catherine Lebel
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Radiology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Child & Adolescent Imaging Research (CAIR) Program, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Benjamin l. Goldstein
- Centre for Youth Bipolar Disorder, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Departments of Psychiatry and Pharmacology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Signe Bray
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Radiology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Child & Adolescent Imaging Research (CAIR) Program, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Jean Addington
- Department of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Salazar de Pablo G, Radua J, Pereira J, Bonoldi I, Arienti V, Besana F, Soardo L, Cabras A, Fortea L, Catalan A, Vaquerizo-Serrano J, Coronelli F, Kaur S, Da Silva J, Shin JI, Solmi M, Brondino N, Politi P, McGuire P, Fusar-Poli P. Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis. JAMA Psychiatry 2021; 78:970-978. [PMID: 34259821 PMCID: PMC8281006 DOI: 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.0830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 137] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research. OBJECTIVE To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles. STUDY SELECTION Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted. RESULTS A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Institute of Psychiatry and Mental Health, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón School of Medicine, Universidad Complutense, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Madrid, Spain,Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Joaquim Radua
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Imaging of Mood- and Anxiety-Related Disorders (IMARD) Group, Institut d’Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Barcelona, Spain,Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Centre for Psychiatric Research and Education, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Joana Pereira
- Centro Hospitalar Psiquiátrico de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ilaria Bonoldi
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Vincenzo Arienti
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Filippo Besana
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Livia Soardo
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Anna Cabras
- Department of Neurology and Psychiatry, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Lydia Fortea
- Imaging of Mood- and Anxiety-Related Disorders (IMARD) Group, Institut d’Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Barcelona, Spain,Institute of Neurosciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ana Catalan
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Mental Health Department, Biocruces Bizkaia Health Research Institute, Basurto University Hospital, Facultad de Medicina y Odontología, Campus de Leioa, University of the Basque Country, UPV/EHU, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - Julio Vaquerizo-Serrano
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Institute of Psychiatry and Mental Health, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón School of Medicine, Universidad Complutense, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Madrid, Spain,Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Francesco Coronelli
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Simi Kaur
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Josette Da Silva
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jae Il Shin
- Department of Paediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Marco Solmi
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Neurosciences Department, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Natascia Brondino
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Pierluigi Politi
- Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Philip McGuire
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,OASIS service, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paolo Fusar-Poli
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy,OASIS service, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
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