Model-data divergence in global seasonal temperature response to astronomical insolation during the Holocene

Reconciling East Asia's mid-Holocene temperature discrepancy through vegetation-climate feedback

The term "Holocene temperature conundrum" refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations, and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during the Holocene. Climate reconstructions indicate a cooling trend following the Holocene Thermal Maximum, while model simulations indicate a consistent warming trend due to ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Various factors, such as seasonal biases and overlooked feedback processes, have been proposed as potential causes for this discrepancy. In this study, we examined the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the temperature anomaly patterns in East Asia during the mid-Holocene (∼6 ka). By utilizing the fully coupled Earth system model EC-Earth and performing simulations with and without coupled dynamic vegetation, our objective was to isolate the influence of vegetation changes on regional temperature patterns. Our findings reveal that vegetation-climate feedback contributed to warming across most of East Asia, resulting in spatially diverse temperature changes during the mid-Holocene and significantly improved model-data agreement. These results highlight the crucial role of vegetation-climate feedback in addressing the Holocene temperature conundrum and emphasize its importance for simulating accurate climate scenarios.

Revisiting the Holocene global temperature conundrum

Recent global temperature reconstructions for the current interglacial period (the Holocene, beginning 11,700 years ago) have generated contrasting trends. This Review examines evidence from indicators and drivers of global change, as inferred from proxy records and simulated by climate models, to evaluate whether anthropogenic global warming was preceded by a long-term warming trend or by global cooling. Multimillennial-scale cooling before industrialization requires extra climate forcing and major climate feedbacks that are not well represented in most climate models at present. Conversely, global warming before industrialization challenges proxy-based reconstructions of past climate. The resolution of this conundrum has implications for contextualizing post-industrial warming and for understanding climate sensitivity to several forcings and their attendant feedbacks, including greenhouse gases. From a large variety of available evidence, we find support for a relatively mild millennial-scale global thermal maximum during the mid-Holocene, but more research is needed to firmly resolve the conundrum and to advance our understanding of slow-moving climate variability.

Paleochannel of the Yellow River within the Zoige Basin and its environmental significance on the NE Tibetan Plateau

Paleochannel sedimentary sequences can provide abundant information on regional environmental changes. A typical paleochannel (paleo-oxbow lake type) section of the Yellow River was identified within the Zoige Basin on the NE Tibetan Plateau. A multi-index approach was used to accurately identify sediments of different genetic types, such as riverbed deposits of the Yellow River, paleo-oxbow lake deposits, and overbank flood deposits (OFD) in the section. Based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and AMS ¹⁴C dates, we examined the environmental evolution recorded by the section. The results show that: (1) The section is a record of environmental change since 4.17 ± 0.49 ka. During 4.17 ± 0.49 to 3.24 ± 0.26 ka, the ancient Yellow River occupied the channel. At 3.24 ± 0.26 ka, the paleochannel experienced a neck cutoff, and the fluvial environment began to change into the oxbow lake environment. After 2.45 ± 0.11 ka, the paleo-oxbow lake gradually disappeared. Subalpine meadow soil has developed at this site since 1.31 ± 0.05 ka. (2) Paleoenvironmental proxies indicate that the Zoige Basin was warmer and wetter before ~3.00 ka, and became drier and colder after ~3.00 ka, which may be mainly related to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the strengthening of the Westerlies. (3) Two episodes of extreme overbank flooding occurred at 2.96 ± 0.24 to 2.87 ± 0.27 ka and 1.84 ± 0.20 to 1.70 ± 0.16 ka, correlated with climate shift period from the mid-Holocene climatic optimum to the late Holocene and the Dark Age Cold Period (DACP), respectively. Due to the relatively cold and dry climate in these periods, glaciers generally advanced on the Tibetan Plateau, and the contribution of snow and ice meltwater weakened. Therefore, the strong rainfall caused by the abnormal atmospheric circulation may be the main cause of these extreme overbank flooding.

Holocene seasonal temperature evolution and spatial variability over the Northern Hemisphere landmass

The origin of the temperature divergence between Holocene proxy reconstructions and model simulations remains controversial, but it possibly results from potential biases in the seasonality of reconstructions or in the climate sensitivity of models. Here we present an extensive dataset of Holocene seasonal temperatures reconstructed using 1310 pollen records covering the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Our results indicate that both summer and winter temperatures warmed from the early to mid-Holocene (~11-7 ka BP) and then cooled thereafter, but with significant spatial variability. Strong early Holocene warming trend occurred mainly in Europe, eastern North America and northern Asia, which can be generally captured by model simulations and is likely associated with the retreat of continental ice sheets. The subsequent cooling trend is pervasively recorded except for northern Asia and southeastern North America, which may reflect the cross-seasonal impact of the decreasing summer insolation through climatic feedbacks, but the cooling in winter season is not well reproduced by climate models. Our results challenge the proposal that seasonal biases in proxies are the main origin of model-data discrepancies and highlight the critical impact of insolation and associated feedbacks on temperature changes, which warrant closer attention in future climate modelling.