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Kim GI, Oh JH, Shin NY, An SI, Yeh SW, Shin J, Kug JS. Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes. Nat Commun 2024; 15:6225. [PMID: 39043671 PMCID: PMC11266720 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 07/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/25/2024] Open
Abstract
The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth's surface climate. Even if CO2 emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO2 stabilization is achieved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Geon-Il Kim
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ji-Hoon Oh
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Na-Yeon Shin
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Soon-Il An
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Sang-Wook Yeh
- Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, Ansan, South Korea
| | - Jongsoo Shin
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jong-Seong Kug
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
- Interdisciplinary Program in Artificial Intelligence, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
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Zhou S, Huang P, Wang L, Hu K, Huang G, Hu P. Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming. Nat Commun 2024; 15:96. [PMID: 38167831 PMCID: PMC10762120 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44244-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
The lower tropospheric subtropical circulation (SC) is characterized by monsoons and subtropical highs, playing an important role in global teleconnections and climate variability. The SC changes in a warmer climate are influenced by complex and region-specific mechanisms, resulting in uneven projections worldwide. Here, we present a method to quantify the overall intensity change in global SC, revealing a robust weakening across CMIP6 models. The weakening is primarily caused by global-mean surface warming, and partly counteracted by the direct CO2 effect. The direct CO2 effect is apparent in the transient response but is eventually dominated by the surface warming effect in a slow response. The distinct response timescales to global-mean warming and direct CO2 radiative forcing can well explain the time-varying SC changes in other CO2 emission scenarios. The declined SC implies a contracted monsoon range and drying at its boundary with arid regions under CO2-induced global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shijie Zhou
- Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China
| | - Ping Huang
- Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.
| | - Lin Wang
- Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.
| | - Kaiming Hu
- Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China
| | - Gang Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China
- Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, 266237, Qingdao, China
| | - Peng Hu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, 650500, Kunming, China
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Liu C, An SI, Jin FF, Shin J, Kug JS, Zhang W, Stuecker MF, Yuan X, Xue A, Geng X, Kim SK. Hysteresis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to CO 2 forcing. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadh8442. [PMID: 37531428 PMCID: PMC10396313 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh8442] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023]
Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual climate variability with far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. Many studies have investigated ENSO-projected changes under future greenhouse warming, but its responses to plausible mitigation behaviors remain unknown. We show that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability and associated global teleconnection patterns exhibit strong hysteretic responses to carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction based on the 28-member ensemble simulations of the CESM1.2 model under an idealized CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down scenario. There is a substantial increase in the ensemble-averaged eastern Pacific SST anomaly variance during the ramp-down period compared to the ramp-up period. Such ENSO hysteresis is mainly attributed to the hysteretic response of the tropical Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone meridional position to CO2 removal and is further supported by several selected single-member Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations. The presence of ENSO hysteresis leads to its amplified and prolonged impact in a warming climate, depending on the details of future mitigation pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Liu
- Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
| | - Soon-Il An
- Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Republic of Korea
| | - Fei-Fei Jin
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - Jongsoo Shin
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong-Seong Kug
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Wenjun Zhang
- CIC-FEMD/ILCEC, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Malte F Stuecker
- Department of Oceanography & International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
| | - Xinyi Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Nanjing 210041, China
- Jiangsu Meteorological Service Centre, Nanjing 210041, China
| | - Aoyun Xue
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Republic of Korea
| | - Xin Geng
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Republic of Korea
- CIC-FEMD/ILCEC, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Soong-Ki Kim
- Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
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Lin J, Xing C, Liu C, Tan W, Wang W, Wu P, Lu C, Li Q, Liu T. Hyperspectral imaging technique support dynamic emission inventory of coal-fired power plants in China. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2023:S2095-9273(23)00339-0. [PMID: 37268440 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.05.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Revised: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jinan Lin
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China; Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Chengzhi Xing
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China.
| | - Cheng Liu
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China; Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; Centre for Excellence in Regional Atmospheric Environment, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; Key Laboratory of Precision Scientific Instrumentation of Anhui Higher Education Institutes, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China.
| | - Wei Tan
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Peng Wu
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Chuan Lu
- Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Qihua Li
- Institute of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
| | - Ting Liu
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
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