Modelling population-level consequences of chronic external gamma irradiation in aquatic invertebrates under laboratory conditions

Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

A few considerations on some current modelling approaches to assess the impact of radiation on the population size of wildlife species

This note outlines some features of current state-of-the-art models aimed at assessing the radiological impact on wildlife. Such models can be interpreted as particular realisations of an archetypal model from which they can be derived on the basis of specific hypotheses described and analysed here. A stressor can influence, to varying degrees, on the one hand, the inherent biological mortality of a species and, on the other hand, the actual mortality of a species competing for survival in the ecosystem. Generally, the actual mortality rate of a species impacted by a stressor is linked through complicated mathematical relationships to the excess biological mortality caused by the stressor. Such relationships may depend on the particular type of model. The models can be of help to select criteria for the assessment of the radiological impact and to identify suitable parameters for its evaluation.

Radiosensitivity and transgenerational effects in non-human species

The ALLIANCE working group on effects of ionising radiation on wildlife brings together European researchers to work on the topics of radiosensitivity and transgenerational effects in non-human biota. Differences in radiation sensitivity across species and phyla are poorly understood, but have important implications for understanding the overall effects of radiation and for radiation protection; for example, sensitive species may require special attention in monitoring and radiation protection, and differences in sensitivity between species also lead to overall effects at higher levels (community, ecosystem), since interactions between species can be altered. Hence, understanding the mechanisms of interspecies radiation sensitivity differences may help to clarify mechanisms underpinning intraspecies variation. Differences in sensitivity may only be revealed when organisms are exposed to ionising radiation over several generations. This issue of potential long-term or hereditary effects for both humans and wildlife exposed to low doses of ionising radiation is a major concern. Animal and plant studies suggest that gamma irradiation can lead to observable effects in the F1 generation that are not attributable to inheritance of a rare stable DNA mutation. Several studies have provided evidence of an increase in genomic instability detected in germ or somatic cells of F1 organisms from exposed F0 organisms. This can lead to induced radiosensitivity, and can result in phenotypic effects or lead to reproductive effects and teratogenesis. In particular, studies have been conducted to understand the possible role of epigenetic modifications, such as DNA methylation, histone modifications, or expression of non-coding RNAs in radiosensitivity, as well as in adaptation effects. As such, research using biological models in which the relative contribution of genetic and epigenetic processes can be elucidated is highly valuable.

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. These predictions suggested that proposed reference benchmarks from the literature for different taxonomic groups protected all simulated species against population extinction. A generic reference benchmark of 10 μGy h(-1) protected all simulated species against 10% of the effect causing population extinction. Finally, a risk of pseudo-extinction was predicted from 2.0 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 970 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates, representing a slight but statistically significant population decline, the importance of which remains to be evaluated in natural settings.

Establishing relationships between environmental exposures to radionuclides and the consequences for wildlife: inferences and weight of evidence

Ecological risk assessments for radioactive substances are based on a number of inference rules to compensate for knowledge gaps, and generally require the implementation of a weight-of-evidence approach. Until recently, dose (rate)-response relationships used to derive radioprotection criteria for wildlife have mainly relied on laboratory studies from a limited number of species as representatives of biodiversity. There is no doubt that additional knowledge, combined with advanced conceptual and mathematical approaches, is needed to develop general rules and increase confidence when extrapolating from test species to complex biological/ecological systems. Moreover, field data sets based on robust sampling strategies are still needed to validate benchmark values derived from controlled laboratory tests, and to indicate potential indirect ecological effects, if any. This paper illustrates, through several examples, the need for implementing a combined laboratory-field-model approach to obtain science-based benchmark doses (or dose rates) (e.g. screening benchmarks for ecological risk assessments or derived consideration reference levels), based on robust meta-analysis of dose-effect relationships covering ecologically relevant exposure time scales, species, and endpoints.

Using an Ecosystem Approach to complement protection schemes based on organism-level endpoints

Radiation protection goals for ecological resources are focussed on ecological structures and functions at population-, community-, and ecosystem-levels. The current approach to radiation safety for non-human biota relies on organism-level endpoints, and as such is not aligned with the stated overarching protection goals of international agencies. Exposure to stressors can trigger non-linear changes in ecosystem structure and function that cannot be predicted from effects on individual organisms. From the ecological sciences, we know that important interactive dynamics related to such emergent properties determine the flows of goods and services in ecological systems that human societies rely upon. A previous Task Group of the IUR (International Union of Radioecology) has presented the rationale for adding an Ecosystem Approach to the suite of tools available to manage radiation safety. In this paper, we summarize the arguments for an Ecosystem Approach and identify next steps and challenges ahead pertaining to developing and implementing a practical Ecosystem Approach to complement organism-level endpoints currently used in radiation safety.

Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population

The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear. In particular, the effects of radiation are modelled by relating the increase in the mortality rates of the individuals to the dose rates through a proportionality factor C. The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The comparison of the model results with the data selected from the above mentioned experiments showed that the model overestimated the detrimental effects of radiation on the size of irradiated populations when the values of C were within the range derived from the median lethal dose (L50) for small mammals. The described non-linear model suggests that the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, can be a factor that determines a more effective response of population to the radiation effects.