The critical role of local policy effects in arid watershed groundwater resources sustainability: A case study in the Minqin oasis, China

Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally

Groundwater resources are vital to ecosystems and livelihoods. Excessive groundwater withdrawals can cause groundwater levels to decline1-10, resulting in seawater intrusion11, land subsidence12,13, streamflow depletion14-16 and wells running dry17. However, the global pace and prevalence of local groundwater declines are poorly constrained, because in situ groundwater levels have not been synthesized at the global scale. Here we analyse in situ groundwater-level trends for 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems in countries that encompass approximately 75% of global groundwater withdrawals18. We show that rapid groundwater-level declines (>0.5 m year-1) are widespread in the twenty-first century, especially in dry regions with extensive croplands. Critically, we also show that groundwater-level declines have accelerated over the past four decades in 30% of the world's regional aquifers. This widespread acceleration in groundwater-level deepening highlights an urgent need for more effective measures to address groundwater depletion. Our analysis also reveals specific cases in which depletion trends have reversed following policy changes, managed aquifer recharge and surface-water diversions, demonstrating the potential for depleted aquifer systems to recover.

Change in groundwater table depth caused by natural change and human activities during the past 40 years in the Shiyang River Basin, northwest China

Groundwater is the primary water source for agriculture, social economy, and ecosystem in the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), northwest China. Research on its variation and attribution is of great importance for the sustainable development of local economy, water resources, and the environment. In this study, the changes in the groundwater table depth (GTD) during 1980-2017 in different sub-basins and different periods were analyzed using the linear trend and moving t-test methods. The contribution of natural and human activity to GTD in the before and after periods of the Comprehensive Treatment Program of the SRB (CTSRB) were quantified using a multiple general linear model. The results showed that (1) the GTD in SRB showed a significant increasing trend during 1980-2017, and it could be divided into three stages: slow increase (1980-1987), rapid increase (1987-2008), and spatially different trends (2009-2017). In sub-basins, the increasing rates in the three stages in Wuwei were 1.05 m/10a, 2.86 m/10a, and 4.50 m/10a, respectively, while those in Minqin were 3.89 m/10a, 6.24 m/10a, and 0.85 m/10a, respectively. (2) The contribution of human irrigation activity to GTD in Minqin decreased from 77.3 % during the pre-CTSRB period to 38.0 % during the post-CTSRB period, while that in Wuwei increased from 67.3 % to 83.8 %. This was due to the CTSRB focusing on the groundwater and ecological restoration in the lower reaches of SRB. (3) The dominant attributing factor to the increase in GTD was groundwater exploitation driven by expanded irrigated-farmland during the pre-CTSRB period. However, the implementation of CTSRB has achieved remarkable results, and the groundwater level in Minqin virtually reached a stable state, especially in the Lake irrigation district. This study provides a reference and basis for sustainable utilization and management of groundwater resources in similar arid and semi-arid regions.

Simulation of future land use/cover change (LUCC) in typical watersheds of arid regions under multiple scenarios

The rapid development of the social economy has promoted a continuous increase in the intensity and scale of land use by humans, which has seriously affected the sustainable development of the region. It is important to understand the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the arid region and its future development trends and to make reasonable planning recommendations for the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This study validates the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in a typical arid region, the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), and analyzes the applicability of the model in arid regions. On this basis, the PLUS model is combined with the scenario analysis method to design four scenarios including no policy intervention, farmland protection, ecological protection and sustainable development to analyze the dynamic changes in past and future land use in the SRB and to make corresponding planning recommendations for the development of each type of land use in the arid region. The results showed that the PLUS model had a better simulation effect in the SRB (its overall accuracy reached 0.97). Coupled models obtain better simulation results than quantitative and spatial models by comparing the mainstream models, with PLUS model that combines CA model and patch generation strategy showing better simulation results in the same category. From 1987 to 2017, the spatial centroid of each LUCC in the SRB moved to varying degrees due to a continuous increase in human activities. The spatial centroid of water bodies had the most obvious change, with a moving speed of 1.49 km/a, while the moving speed of built-up land increased year by year. The spatial centroid of farmland, built-up land and unused land all shifted toward the middle and lower plains, which is a further indication of increased human activity. Due to different government policies, the development trend of land use was also different under different scenarios. However, the four scenarios all showed that the area of built-up land will be increasing exponentially from 2017 to 2037, which would seriously affect the surrounding ecological land and have a negative impact on the local agro-ecological environment. Therefore, we proposed the following planning recommendations: (1) Land leveling work should be carried out on scattered farmland located at high altitudes and with slopes over 25°. Additionally, the land use of low-altitude areas should strictly adhere to basic farmland, increase the diversification of cropping patterns and improve the efficiency of agricultural water. (2) The relationship between ecology, farmland and cities should be reasonably coordinated and the existing idle built-up land should be efficiently used. (3) Forestland and grassland resources should be strictly protected and the ecological redline should be strictly observed. This study can provide new ideas for LUCC modeling and prediction in other parts of the world and provide a strong basis for ecological management and sustainable development in arid areas.

Redistribution effect of irrigation on shallow groundwater recharge source contributions in an arid agricultural region

Recharge sources such as precipitation, mountain front recharge, mountain block recharge and confined water are the sources usually considered in quantitative studies of groundwater recharge. Changes in recharge processes caused by irrigation practices need to be fully considered for the accurate budgeting and management of water resources. Here, we put forward a conceptual framework for evaluating the shallow groundwater recharge process in arid irrigated agricultural areas using hydrochemical and stable isotope techniques, combined with an assessment of hydrogeological conditions and quantitative models. In general, the recharge effect of atmospheric precipitation on shallow groundwater in arid areas is relatively small. The contributions made by recharge sources in the studied river irrigated area, from greater to smaller, were confined groundwater (46.98 %), river water (45.48 %) and precipitation (7.55 %). The original range in groundwater recharge levels caused by river leakage also appeared to have expanded in response to the establishment of canal irrigation networks. Lateral groundwater flow and confined groundwater were the main recharge sources of shallow groundwater in areas fed by well irrigation and well-/spring-water irrigation (not taking into account any groundwater irrigation leakage). However, had the recharge of shallow groundwater by groundwater irrigation leakage, which reached 19.8-41.1 %, not been counted as contributing to actual groundwater recharge, the recharge contributions made by lateral groundwater flow and confined groundwater to shallow groundwater would have been significantly overestimated. This is because the groundwater recharge process has been modified by the various irrigation measures employed in arid agricultural areas, leading to a redistribution effect in groundwater recharge source contributions. This study provides a new perspective and intuitive data support for the development and utilization of water resources in arid regions.

Comparative assessment of groundwater vulnerability using GIS-based DRASTIC and DRASTIC-AHP for Thoothukudi District, Tamil Nadu India

The groundwater is very precious in the world. Rapid urbanization and industrialization create tremendous stress on groundwater quality and quantity. Unscientific groundwater extraction and waste disposal methods impact the groundwater aquifer's susceptibility in the coastal area. This research examines how industrial waste, seawater intrusion, and solid waste dumping affect the Thoothukudi District, located on the southwest coast of Tamil Nadu, India. The groundwater vulnerability potential is determined using the DRASTIC and analytical hierarchy process (AHP)-based DRASTIC model. DRASTIC-AHP method's weights and ranks are determined using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-based pairwise comparison method. Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) are implemented to prepare the input layers for DRASTIC and DRASTIC-AHP. The findings reveal a very high category of vulnerability along the coastline that is covered in sand and loose sediments from an aquifer. Similar conditions exist on the southeast side, which is covered with gravel, sand, and sandstone with shale and has relatively low-slope topography. This enables higher contaminant percolation into the groundwater and raises the possibility for pollution. The DRASTIC-AHP method's results reveal that the southeast side has a significant possibility of contamination. The water table, net recharge, vadose zone, and conductivity greatly impacted the DRASTIC vulnerability assessment due to their stronger weight than theoretical weight. It may be stated that the DRASTIC technique is more cost-effective and time-efficient in analyzing a wide range of regional groundwater risks while avoiding sloppy, uncontrolled land development and other unwanted activities.

Improving the Accuracy of Groundwater Storage Estimates Based on Groundwater Weighted Fusion Model

It is an effective measure to estimate groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) by combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and hydrological models. However, GWSA results based on a single hydrological model and GRACE data may have greater uncertainties, and it is difficult to verify in some regions where in situ groundwater-level measurements are limited. First, to solve this problem, a groundwater weighted fusion model (GWFM) is presented, based on the extended triple collocation (ETC) method. Second, the Shiyang River Basin (SYRB) is taken as an example, and in situ groundwater-level measurements are used to evaluate the performance of the GWFM. The comparison indicates that the correlation coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) are increased by 9–40% and 23–657%, respectively, relative to the original results. Moreover, the root mean squared error (RMSE) is reduced by 9–28%, which verifies the superiority of the GWFM. Third, the spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of GWSA in the Hexi Corridor (HC) are comprehensively analyzed during the period between 2003 and 2016. The results show that GWSA decline, with a trend of −2.37 ± 0.38 mm/yr from 2003 to 2010, and the downward trend after 2011 (−0.46 ± 1.35 mm/yr) slow down significantly compared to 2003–2010. The spatial distribution obtained by the GWFM is more reliable compared to the arithmetic average results, and GWFM-based GWSA fully retain the advantages of different models, especially in the southeastern part of the SYRB. Additionally, a simple index is used to evaluate the contributions of climatic factors and human factors to groundwater storage (GWS) in the HC and its different subregions. The index indicates that climate factors occupy a dominant position in the SLRB and SYRB, while human factors have a significant impact on GWS in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). This study can provide suggestions for the management and assessments of groundwater resources in some arid regions.

The Ecological Relationship of Groundwater–Soil–Vegetation in the Oasis–Desert Transition Zone of the Shiyang River Basin

Groundwater is an important ecological water source in arid areas. Groundwater depth (GWD) is an important indicator that affects vegetation growth and soil salinization. Clarifying the coupling relationship between vegetation, groundwater, and soil in arid areas is beneficial to the prevention of environmental problems such as desertification and salinization. Existing studies lack research on the water–soil–vegetation relationship in typical areas, especially in shallow groundwater areas. In this study, the shallow groundwater area in Minqin, northwest China, was taken as study area, and vegetation surveys and soil samples collection were conducted. The relationships between vegetation fractional coverage (VFC) and GWD, soil salinity, soil moisture, and precipitation were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed low soil salinity in the riparian zone and high soil salinity in other shallow-buried areas with salinization problems. Soil salinity was negatively correlated with VFC (R = −0.4). When soil salinity >3 g/kg, VFC was less than 20%. Meanwhile, when GWD >10 m, VFC was usually less than 15%. In the areas with soil salinity <3 g/kg, when GWD was in the range of 4–10 m, VFC was positively correlated with soil moisture content (R = 0.99), and vegetation growth mainly depended on surface soil water, which was significantly affected by precipitation. When GWD was less than 4 m, VFC was negatively correlated with GWD (R = −0.78), and vegetation growth mainly relied on groundwater and soil water. There are obvious ecological differences in the shallow-buried areas in Minqin. Hence, it is reasonable to consider zoning and grading policies for ecological protection.

The constraints and driving forces of oasis development in arid region: a case study of the Hexi Corridor in northwest China

The oasis, a special landscape with the integration of nature and humanity in the arid region, has undergone an enormous transformation during the past decades. To gain a better understanding of the tradeoff between economic growth and oases stability in the arid land, we took the oases in the Hexi Corridor as a case to explore the constraints of oases development and the driving factors of oases expansion. The dynamic changes and spatial distribution patterns underwent by the oases were examined using multispectral remote sensing imagery. The constraints of oasis development in arid land were investigated by the grid-transformed model, as well as the index system of driving forces was analyzed using the grey incidence model based on the data from statistics yearbooks. The oasis area in the Hexi Corridor had tremendous changes expanded 40% from 1986 to 2015, the stable oasis area was 9062 km², while the maximum area reached 16,374 km². The constraints for oases of topography, hydrology and heat condition are as follow: The elevation of oasis ranged from 1000 to 1800 m, peaked in 1500 m; the slope of oasis distribution was flatter than 3 degrees; the aspect of oases on slope land concentrated in northeast and north, accounting for more than 60%. The main driving forces of oasis spatial expansion in the arid region were population, water resource, economy, policies, and other factors. These results are expected to (1) improve the rationality of oasis development, and (2) promote the sustainable planning and management of oases in the arid land.

Driving Factors of Recent Vegetation Changes in Hexi Region, Northwest China Based on a New Classification Framework

Since other factors (soil properties, topography, etc.) under natural conditions are relatively invariant over one or two decades, climate variables (precipitation and temperature) and human activities are the two fundamental factors driving vegetation changes in global or large-scale areas. However, the combined effects of either single climatic factor and human activities on vegetation changes and the role of human activities itself in a specific region has not been fully discussed. In this study, the Hexi region, a typical dryland consisting of three inland river basins in northwest China was selected as a case area. A new classification framework combining Pearson correlation analysis and residual trend approach was proposed to assess their individual and conjoint contributions of climate variables and human activities in areas of significant vegetation changes. Our results indicated that most of vegetation covered areas in the Hexi region experienced significant changes during the period 2001−2017, and vegetation improvements were widespread except the interior of oases; significant changes in vegetation caused by human activities, precipitation, the interactions of precipitation and human activities, temperature, the interactions of temperature and human activities, the interactions of temperature and precipitation, and the interactions of the three factors accounted for 50.46%, 16.39%, 19.90%, 4.33%, 2.32%, 2.11%, and 4.49% of the total change areas, respectively. Generally, the influence of temperature was relatively weaker than that of precipitation, and the contributions of the interactions of climate variables and human activities on vegetation changes were greater than that of climate contributions alone. Moreover, the results of various investigations, according to the trends and the time of vegetation changes, indicate that decreasing trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Hexi region were chiefly attributed to the adjustments of agricultural planting structure while the comprehensive treatment programs implemented in river basins supported a large proportion of vegetation improvements.

The impact of increasing land productivity on groundwater dynamics: a case study of an oasis located at the edge of the Gobi Desert

BACKGROUND

Intensification of agricultural systems may result in overexploitation of water resources in arid regions because enhanced productivity of crops is often associated with increased actual evapotranspiration (AET). The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of increased regional AET on the groundwater level in a case study of the oasis located within the Shiyang River Basin near the edge of the Gobi Desert.

RESULT

The results of the study show that regional AET increased during the period from 1981 to 2010 due to increasing oasis area and air temperature. The water losses due to AET exceeded the water supply from the mountainous discharges of the basin by the end of this period, leading to groundwater overexploitation in the oasis area.

CONCLUSIONS

This case study shows the importance of considering the effect of climate change on water losses associated with increasing agricultural production for the sustainable agricultural development of arid regions.

Evaluation of groundwater sustainability in the arid Hexi Corridor of Northwestern China, using GRACE, GLDAS and measured groundwater data products

The exploitation of groundwater resources is of great importance and has become crucial in the last few decades, especially in arid regions, where surface water resources are scarce and unreliable. The Hexi Corridor (HC) is one of the most agriculturally rich and densely populated areas of arid northwestern China. Increasing demand for water, due to rapid population growth, oasis expansion and urbanization, has increased groundwater use, resulting in wide-scale depletion in this region. Sustainable management of aquifers in the HC requires accurate estimates of the current situation of groundwater resource sustainability. In this work, groundwater storage anomaly (∆GWS) were estimated using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data and the water-table fluctuation (WTF) method based on in-situ groundwater level data. Combined with the groundwater sustainability index (SI_GWS), groundwater sustainability in the HC was then evaluated. Potential factors that could affect regional groundwater sustainability were analyzed by including and testing climate and socio-economic variables during the period of 1981 to 2016. We found that (1) groundwater in the HC has experienced a general deterioration (except for a sudden and sharp increase observed around 2002) in both storage and sustainability, from ∆GWS = 16.79 cm/year and SI_GWS = 0.46 (1985-1990) to ∆GWS = -28.96 cm/year and SI_GWS = 0.008 (2007-2016); (2) the lowest value of groundwater sustainability in the HC appeared in the central and eastern regions (SI_GWS = 0); (3) human activity was confirmed to be the dominant factor driving the processes of deterioration in groundwater sustainability in the HC, and during the research period, it is striking that relatively limited "positive" effects of the water management project were detected on the regional groundwater resource; this result indicates that damaged groundwater sustainability cannot be easily reversed unless a long-term management policy is implemented. This study also proves that GRACE gravity satellite data has great application potential in groundwater sustainability evaluation in arid regions, especially in developing countries where in-situ data are scarce, and highlights the importance of joint management of surface water and groundwater, in groundwater sustainability management.

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variability of Groundwater and Their Responses to Climate Change and Human Activities in Arid and Desert Areas: A Case Study in Yaoba Oasis, Northwest China

Climate change and human activities have profound effects on the characteristics of groundwater in arid oases. Analyzing the change of groundwater level and quantifying the contributions of influencing factors are essential for mastering the groundwater dynamic variation and providing scientific guidance for the rational utilization and management of groundwater resources. In this study, the characteristics and causes of groundwater level in an arid oasis of Northwest China were explored using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and principal component analysis. Results showed that the groundwater level every year exhibited tremendous regular characteristics with the seasonal exploitation. Meanwhile, the inter-annual groundwater level dropped continuously from 1982 to 2018, with a cumulative decline depth that exceeded 12 m, thereby causing the cone of depression. In addition, the monthly groundwater level had an evident cyclical variation on the two time scales of 17–35 and 7–15 months, and the main periodicity of monthly level was 12 months. Analysis results of the climatic factors from 1954 to 2018 observed a significant warming trend in temperature, an indistinctive increase in rainfall, an inconspicuous decrease in evaporation, and an insignificant reduction in relative humidity. The human factors such as exploitation amount, irrigated area, and population quantity rose substantially since the development of the oasis in the 1970s. In accordance with the quantitative calculation, human activities were decisive factors on groundwater level reduction, accounting for 87.79%. However, climate change, including rainfall and evaporation, which contributed to 12.21%, still had the driving force to change the groundwater level in the study area. The groundwater level of Yaoba Oasis has been greatly diminished and the ecological environment has deteriorated further due to the combined effect of climate change and human activities.

Detecting Patterns of Vegetation Gradual Changes (2001–2017) in Shiyang River Basin, Based on a Novel Framework

A lot of timeseries satellite products have been well documented in exploring changes in ecosystems. However, algorithms allowing for measuring the directions, magnitudes, and timing of vegetation change, evaluating the major driving factors, and eventually predicting the future trends are still insufficient. A novel framework focusing on addressing this problem was proposed in this study according to the temporal trajectory of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) timeseries of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). It divided the inter-annual changes in vegetation into four patterns: linear, exponential, logarithmic, and logistic. All the three non-linear patterns were differentiated automatically by fitting a logistic function with prolonged NDVI timeseries. Finally, features of vegetation changes including where, when and how, were evaluated by the parameters in the logistic function. Our results showed that 87.39% of vegetation covered areas (maximum mean growing season NDVI in the 17 years not less than 0.2) in the Shiyng River basin experienced significant changes during 2001–2017. The linear pattern, exponential pattern, logarithmic pattern, and logistic pattern accounted for 36.53%, 20.16%, 15.42%, and 15.27%, respectively. Increasing trends were dominant in all the patterns. The spatial distribution in both the patterns and the transition years at which vegetation gains/losses began or ended is of high consistency. The main years of transition for the exponential increasing pattern, the logarithmic increasing pattern, and the logarithmic increasing pattern were 2008–2011, 2003–2004, and 2009–2010, respectively. The period of 2006–2008 was the foremost period that NDVIs started to decline in Liangzhou Oasis and Minqin Oasis where almost all the decreasing patterns were concentrated. Potential disturbances of vegetation gradual changes in the basin are refer to as urbanization, expansion or reduction of agricultural oases, as well as measures in ecological projects, such as greenhouses building, afforestation, grazing prohibition, etc.

Evaluation of the ecological protective effect of the "large basin" comprehensive management system in the Tarim River basin, China

It is very important to construct a reasonable and efficient basin management system to meet the ecological water demand in arid areas with natural vegetation, and to maintain the integrity and stability of fragile ecosystems. However, how to assess the effect of basin management on ecological protection in arid areas as well as how to achieve the optimal control and efficient use of ecological water are major issues for many researchers and river basin managers. To address these two questions, we investigated the comprehensive management system for the Tarim River basin in China as a typical case study. The results showed that the natural vegetation coverage degree, the ecological water supply, temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), and the tree-ring chronology of Populus euphratica increased, whereas the disturbance of water resources by human activities decreased. Therefore, the effects of ecological protection were obvious after comprehensive "large basin" management. Based on an innovative application of tree-ring chronology to estimate the water leakage from the river, we determined the minimum runoff level (43.1 × 10⁸ m³) when the natural vegetation needs to overflow. To further improve the effect of comprehensive management, the optimal regulation mode (i.e. maintaining the groundwater depth at 2-6 m, and the frequency and duration of overflowing at 2-3 times per year for a duration of 15-20 days during July to September) for the ecological sluices was formulated from the perspective of the efficient utilization of ecological water. These results provide a scientific reference for constructing reasonable management systems for similar river basins in arid areas.

Spatiotemporal Changes in Evapotranspiration from an Overexploited Water Resources Basin in Arid Northern China and Their Implications for Ecosystem Management

Evapotranspiration (ET), including evaporation from soil and water surfaces and transpiration from vegetation, influences water distribution in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, especially in arid areas where water is a key limiting factor. Therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET, including its two components of soil evaporation (Es) and vegetation transpiration (Ec), can be useful for water resource management and ecological restoration in arid regions. Based on ET data from 2002 to 2012, the spatiotemporal variations in ET were evaluated in the Shiyang River Basin in arid Northwest China. The results showed the following: (1) spatially, ET decreased from upstream of the Qilian Mountains to the middle and downstream, with a mean annual value of 316 mm; (2) temporally, ET showed a single peak curve throughout the year, with the highest value occurring in summer; (3) ET showed a downward trend (from 350 to 265 mm) before 2009 and thereafter increased (from 265 to 345 mm); and (4) water use efficiency, indicated by the ratio of Ec to ET, was low in the cropland, with a mean value of 50.9%. Further analysis indicates that decreases in ET are mainly caused by vegetation decreases; in contrast, ecological restriction measures and strict water resource management policies in the middle reaches of the basin led to ET increases. It is concluded that understanding ET and its two components can elucidate the connections between water and human society.

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Oases in the Hexi Corridor over the Past 30 Years

In recent decades, the oases in the Hexi Corridor have gone through a tremendous transformation, which has caused a series of social and environmental problems. We aim to explore quantitatively the characteristics of the oasis expansion and their dynamic mechanism(s) in the Hexi Corridor, and their implications and impact on current and future policies. The spatial distribution pattern and dynamic changes experienced by the oases are examined using Landsat imagery. Their spatio-temporal changes are analyzed using the grid-transformed model and the dynamic-degree model. The model drivers are analyzed based on data from statistics yearbooks and field surveys. The total area of oases in the Hexi Corridor has expanded tremendously during the last 30 years from 10,709 km2 to 14,950 km2, almost 40% of the original value. Oasis evolution patterns of ‘unchanged’, ‘expanding’, ‘shrinking’, and ‘oscillating’ are observed at different periods in the three basins. In terms of area, almost half of the oases experienced some change, where most of the changes took place in the ecotone between oases and deserts, and the interior of oases due to the reclamation of abandoned land. Oasis expansion is mainly determined by the human instincts for survival and well-being, which are generally governed by population growth, agricultural policies and economic development. These changes reflect the need to find a balance in the relationship between ecological protection and increasing the well-being of local residents, because unreasonable or excessive development and utilization will cause damage to the local ecological environment.