Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland

Far-future hydrology will differentially change the phosphorus transfer continuum

Climate change is likely to exacerbate land to water phosphorus (P) transfers, causing a degradation of water quality in freshwater bodies in Northwestern Europe. Planning for mitigation measures requires an understanding of P loss processes under such conditions. This study assesses how climate induced changes to hydrology will likely influence the P transfer continuum in six contrasting river catchments using Irish national observatories as exemplars. Changes or stability of total P (TP) and total reactive P (TRP) transfer processes were estimated using far-future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of modelled river discharge under climate change and observed links between hydrological regimes (baseflow and flashiness indices) and transfer processes (mobilisation and delivery indices). While there were no differences in P mobilisation between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both mobilisation and delivery were higher for TP. Comparing data from 2080 (2070-2099) with 2020 (2010-2039), suggests that P mobilisation is expected to be relatively stable for the different catchments. While P delivery is highest in hydrologically flashy catchments, the largest increases were in groundwater-fed catchments in RCP8.5 (+ 22% for TRP and + 24% for TP). The inter-annual variability of P delivery in the groundwater-fed catchments is also expected to increase. Since the magnitude of a P source may not fully define its mobility, and hydrological connections of mobilisation areas are expected to increase, we recommend identifying critical mobilisation areas to target future mitigation strategies. These are hydrologically connected areas where controls such as soil/bedrock chemistry, biological activity and hydrological processes are favourable for P mobilisation.

Exploring hydrological controls on dissolved organic carbon export dynamics in a typical flash flood catchment using a process-based model

The dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from headwater catchments are of critical importance for the global carbon balance and are driven by complex runoff processes. Most previous studies have used statistical relationships between runoff and DOC concentration to estimate DOC export dynamics. Thus, the coupling mechanisms between runoff generation and DOC export dynamics at the process level were obscured in the fitting parameters and have rarely been addressed. In this study, high-frequency (hourly) discharge and DOC export from a typical flash flood experimental headwater catchment with an area of 1.8 km2 were simulated using a process-based model (INCA-C). The results showed that the INCA-C model successfully captured the hourly dynamics of both discharge and DOC concentrations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.47-0.81 and 0.28-0.70 among moderate events and 0.81-0.85 and 0.19-0.90 among extreme events, respectively. The DOC was exported with distinct concentration dynamics, fluxes, and contributions from the four flow pathways under different storm intensities. At higher intensities, the DOC fluxes were exported by subsurface flows, particularly from shallow organic soil, with greater peaks and shorter time-to-peaks. Exported DOC is primarily sourced from subsurface runoff from the mineral layer (73 %-77 %) during moderate events, whereas it is primarily sourced from subsurface runoff from the organic layer (61 %-79 %) during extreme events. The two contrasting contributions suggest that hydrological pathway controls and DOC dynamic patterns can shift owing to runoff generation influenced by storm intensity. The distinct and variable controls of different flow pathways on DOC export highlight the need to explain the role of hydrology in regulating DOC storm exports through process-based modelling.

High frequency UV-Vis sensors estimate error in riverine dissolved organic carbon load estimates from grab sampling

High frequency ultraviolet - visible (UV-VIS) sensors offer a way of improving dissolved organic carbon (DOC) load estimates in rivers as they can be calibrated to DOC concentration. This is an improvement on periodic grab sampling, or the use of pumped sampling systems which store samples in-field before collection. We hypothesised that the move to high frequency measurements would increase the load estimate based on grab sampling due to systemic under-sampling of high flows. To test our hypotheses, we calibrated two sensors in contrasting catchments (Exe and Bow Brook, UK) against weekly grab sampled DOC measurements and then created an hourly time series of DOC for the two sites. Taking this measurement as a 'true' value of DOC load, we simulated 1,000 grab sampling campaigns at weekly, fortnightly and monthly frequency to understand the likely distribution of load and error estimates. We also performed an analysis of daily grab samples collected using a pumped storage sampling system with weekly collection. Our results show that: a) grab sampling systemically underestimates DOC loads and gives positively skewed distributions of results, b) this under-estimation and positive skew decreases with increasing sampling frequency, c) commonly used estimates of error in the load value are also systemically lowered by the oversampling of low, stable flows due to their dependence on the variance in the flow-weighted mean concentration, and d) that pumped storage systems may lead to under-estimation of DOC and over estimation of specific ultra-violet absorbance (SUVA), a proxy for aromaticity, due to biodegradation during storage.

Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments

We assess changes in the seasonal mean and annual low flows (Q95) for 37 catchments across the Republic of Ireland. Two hydrological models (SMART and GR4J) are trained and evaluated for their ability to capture key hydrological signatures from observations before being forced with bias corrected outputs from 12 Earth System Models from the CMIP6 ensemble. Projected changes are derived for three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results show a wide range of change in all metrics across the catchment sample. While even the direction of change is highly uncertain in spring and autumn, there is a tendency towards increased flows in winter and reduced flows in summer, together with large reductions in annual low flows. Under SSP370, the median reduction in summer flows across catchments for the 2080s simulated by GR4J is −21.3 percent (90 percent CI: 4.8 to −36.9 percent). For Q95, for the 2080s, GR4J returns a median reduction of −20.9 percent (90 percent CI: −2.5 to −38.2 percent), while SMART suggests a median reduction of −21.2 percent (90 percent CI: −6.0 to −36.9 percent). Such changes would pose significant challenges for water management, requiring significant adaptation. Notably, for low flows in particular, significant reductions in emissions under SSP126 result in more moderate future changes, indicating the importance of both adaptation and mitigation to sustainable water management.

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near-future (2031-2050) and far-future (2081-2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.