Spatio-temporal evolution scenarios and the coupling analysis of ecosystem services with land use change in China

From efficiency to resilience: unraveling the dynamic coupling of land use economic efficiency and urban ecological resilience in Yellow River Basin

This study investigates the Dynamic Coupling between Land Use Economic Efficiency (LUEE) and Urban Ecological Resilience (UER) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This exploration is pivotal for elucidating the interaction mechanisms between economic growth and ecological governance. Furthermore, understanding this relationship is essential for fostering high-quality, sustainable urban development in the YRB. Utilizing panel data from 56 cities spanning 2003 to 2020, this study employed the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, spatial correlation analysis, Kernel density estimation, convergence model, and Geodetector to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal distribution, dynamic trend, and determinants of the CCD between LUEE and UER in the YRB. The findings indicate that: (1) A general upward trend in both LUEE and UER, accompanied by a steady improvement in their CCD. (2) Significant spatial disparities in their CCD, with higher levels in the lower reaches. (3) Marked positive spatial autocorrelation, predominantly characterized by clusters where high (low) values are surrounded by high (low) values. (4) Regarding the impact of individual factors, government fiscal budget expenditure demonstrates the most robust explanatory power for the CCD within the YRB. Concerning the effects of two-factor interactions, the interplay between industrial structure upgrading and government fiscal budget expenditure emerges as the most significant determinant in influencing the CCD between LUEE and UER. This study enhances our comprehensive understanding of the interplay between economic and ecological systems. It offers scientific insights and strategic direction for harmonizing ecological governance with urban economic growth at both the regional and global scales.

The nexus between urbanization and ecosystem services balance in China: A coupling perspective

Urbanization inevitably interfered with the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs), which has a crucial impact on the ESs balance. Scientific exploration and clarification of the coupling and decoupling relationship between them can effectively reveal the disturbance of urbanization to the ecosystem, which can help to reasonably manage and protect the ecosystem. Previous studies have paid more attention to the coupling relationship but less attention to the decoupling relationship. This study comprehensively reflected urbanization from the three aspects of construction land, population, and economy and used the evaluation matrix to measure ESs. On this basis, coupling and decoupling analyses were taken to fully clarify the complex relationship between urbanization and ESs balance in China, so as to provide a reference for the formulation of relevant policies. Coupling aspect, the coupling degrees between the proportion of construction land (CLP) and ESs balance index (ESBI) were higher only in the central and eastern plains. The coupling degrees between population density (PD) and ESBI, economic density (ED) and ESBI, and land development index (LDI) and ESBI were only lower in the central and eastern plains than in other regions. Decoupling aspect, strong, weak negative, weak, and strong negative decoupling were the main decoupling types between urbanization and ESs balance in China. Among them, the proportion of the strong decoupling type is much higher than other types, which proves the opposite relationship between the two. Weak decoupling can not only promote economic growth and social development but also protect the ecological environment and biodiversity, which is a type of sustainable development and an ideal state that urbanization should pursue. The results can provide scientific guidance for the formulation of differentiated ecosystem management policies.

Ecological transformation is the key to improve ecosystem health for resource-exhausted cities: A case study in China based on future development scenarios

Numerous cities are currently grappling with the challenge of ecological transformation, especially those categorized as resource-exhausted cities. In these urban areas, land use change is a highly scrutinized issue, as different land use strategies can lead to varied outcomes, impacting the ecological environment in multiple dimensions. Assessing ecosystem health reflects the quality of the regional ecological environment and serves as a comprehensive indicator for evaluating the sustainability and stability of urban ecosystems. To this end, a multi-objective optimization model was constructed to predict land use changes under four future development scenarios (four ecological transformation modes), using Shizuishan City (China), a resource-exhausted city situated in an ecologically fragile area, as an example. The "vigor-organization-resilience" assessment framework was employed to evaluate the ecosystem health conditions in each scenario from three dimensions. The study results showed: (1) The ranking of the average ecological health levels in Shizuishan City for 2022 and different future development scenarios is as follows: Low-Carbon Economic Development Scenario (0.302) > Ecological-Economic Coordinated Development Scenario (0.291) > Baseline Scenario (0.290) > Economic Development Scenario (0.281) > 2022 (0.248). (2) Compared to 2022, the ecosystem health levels under the four ecological transformation modes had all improved, with improvement areas accounting for over 60 %, highlighting the urgent necessity of ecological transformation in Shizuishan City. Among them, the Low-Carbon Economic Development Scenario exhibited the largest improvement area, reaching 75.81 %. (3) Ecological system vitality was identified as the dominant dimension influencing the ecological health in this region. This study emphasized multi-objective development needs and provided an integrated ecosystem health assessment method for assessing the comprehensive ecological effects of future ecological transformation modes in resource-exhausted cities.

Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development

Coastal flooding due to sea level rise significantly affects socioeconomic development. The dynamic nature of coastal flood risk (CFR) and socioeconomic development level (SDL) leads to uncertainties in understanding their future interplay. This ambiguity challenges coastal nations in devising effective flood adaptation and coastal management strategies. This study quantitatively examines the expected GDP affected (EGA) and population affected (EPA) by coastal flooding in China's coastal zone (CCZ) from 2030 to 2100 under various climate scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5). The future SDL in CCZ is assessed using a method combining the analytic hierarchy process with entropy weight. The future CFR-SDL dynamic relationship is analyzed using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The results reveal that in CCZ under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios: by 2100, the EGA and EPA will reach $814.90 billion & 6.17 million people, $828.16 billion & 7.63 million people, and $1568.83 billion & 8.05 million people, respectively, where the coastal cities in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces will face more obvious risks of socioeconomic losses; The total area in the CCZ at "Very high" and "High" level of socioeconomic development by 2100 is projected to reach 11.33 × 103 km2, 12.86 × 103 km2, and 15.82 × 103 km2, respectively, with the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Tianjin-Hebei remaining pivotal for CCZ's socioeconomic growth. Cities such as Lianyungang, Jiaxing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan show notable CCD characteristics, and addressing the trade-off between SDL and CFR is crucial in achieving sustainable development. This study highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding and emphasizes the importance of considering the interrelationship between CFR and SDL when developing coastal flood adaptation policies.

Eco-environmental response to land cover change in ASEAN countries from 2001 to 2020 based on spatial granular association

As one of the major forms of terrestrial ecosystem change, land cover change (LCC) alters the structure of surface landscape patterns, thereby causing regional eco-environmental responses. Due to limitations in research methods, existing studies have focused more on the overall response between LCC and the eco-environment, and cannot calculate the level change response of eco-environmental quality caused by LCC. Based on the method of spatial data information granulation, this study used a remote sensing ecological index to represent the eco-environmental system and divided the complex eco-environmental system and land system into a simple system composed of spatial information granules, thus simplifying the spatial data calculation. The main contributions of this study are as follows: (1) A computing method of eco-environmental response to LCC based on spatial granular association was proposed, which can spatially identify the main response types of regional LCC; (2) three measures, namely, spatial association support degree, spatial association confidence degree, and spatial association cover degree, were proposed to measure the eco-environmental response of regional LCC from different perspectives; and (3) during 2001-2020, the eco-environmental response to l LCC, namely, the response to degradation caused by shrinking forest area, was not very dramatic in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).

Exploring the coupling and decoupling relationship of urbanization and carbon emissions in China

Burgeoning urbanization is a defining challenge for global carbon emissions mitigation in the coming decades. In this context, achieving low-carbon urbanization remains an urgent issue that demands prompt solutions. The coupling and decoupling relationships between urbanization and carbon emissions play an important role in the coordination of urbanization development and carbon emissions reduction, which has rarely been explored in existing studies, especially in China at the county level. To address this gap, the coupling and decoupling relationship between the urbanization level (UL) and carbon emissions density (CED) was explored using an improved coupling degree model and the Tapio decoupling method in China at the county level from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the UL and CED of China both exhibited increasing trends, and the spatial distribution was quite similar, with the UL increasing from 0.018 in 2000 to 0.028 in 2020 and the CED increasing from 95.163 ton/km2 in 2000 to 295.746 ton/km2 in 2020. The spatial distribution of hotspots in the UL change differed with time, whereas that in the CED change was relatively stable. However, both of them were concentrated in eastern China. The coupling degrees of the UL and CED in China were 0.348, 0.355, 0.369, 0.370, and 0.338 in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively, with the moderately unbalanced type (>35%) being dominant at the county level and mainly scattered in eastern China. The changes in the spatial distribution patterns of the 10 subcategories were quite limited, with the systematically balanced type being dominant (89%). The decoupling types of the UL and CED during 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015 were weak decoupling, while those in 2015-2020 were expansive negative decoupling. At the county level, the most significant transition occurred between expansive negative decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. The proportion of strong decoupling type counties peaked in 2015-2020 (70.86%), whereas that of the strong negative decoupling type counties remained high (17.55%), scattering the country. These findings can advance policy enlightenment of low-carbon urbanization and green development for China against the backdrop of "30·60 dual carbon" goal.

Ecological function zoning of Nansi Lake Basin in China based on ecosystem service bundles

Ecological function zoning is an essential means of scientific management of ecosystems. According to the characteristics of ecological function zoning, implementing zoning control is conducive to the governance and protection of the ecological environment and the maintenance of ecological sustainability. This study was conducted with the Nansi Lake Basin as the cross-section for 2018. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was adopted to assess and measure five ecosystem services, including water yield, crop production, soil conservation, carbon storage and carbon sequestration, and habitat quality. The Self-Organizing Feature Maps neural network was applied to obtain the ecosystem service bundles, and then, the ecological function zones were divided. The results indicated that the overall spatial pattern of ecosystem services in the study zone showed a decreasing schema from east to west; There was a trade-off between supply services and support services and a synergy between supply services and regulatory services; according to the bundling results, the Nansi Lake Basin was divided into four ecological functional zones: the eastern ecological surplus zone, the central crop supply zone, the western ecological balance zone, and the lake habitat protection zone. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of various ecosystem services in the Nansi Lake Basin showed spatial heterogeneity and specific regional laws, showing a decreasing pattern from the east to the west as a whole, especially in soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality. (2) According to the supply and spatial distribution of each ecosystem service, the Nansi Lake Basin was divided into four ecological functional zones: the eastern ecological surplus zone, the central crop supply zone, the western ecological balance zone, and the lake habitat protection zone. (3) For zone I, provisioning services and regulation services were in synergy. For zone II and zone III, the provisioning service had a trade-off relationship with the regulation service and the supporting service. For zone IV, supporting services were trade-offs not only with provisioning services but also with regulating services. In general, the trade-offs between ecosystem service in the Nansi Lake Basin were stronger than the synergies, and the overall benefits of ecosystem services were smaller. Relying on the perspective of the ecosystem service bundles, at the county level, this study provided an analysis of the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in the Nansi Lake Basin, which helped formulate the management plan for the corresponding region and provided the appropriate recommendations for regional habitat conservation and restoration.

Simulating future land use by coupling ecological security patterns and multiple scenarios

A land use simulation model with coupling constraints of ecological security patterns (ESPs) and multiple scenarios (MSs) was developed using the PLUS model. The research scale was zoned with environmental functional regions, where land management policies were formulated. A case study in Anji County successfully demonstrated the application of the ESP-MS-PLUS model. First, we constructed three different levels of ESPs as ecological constraints by utilizing ecosystem services evaluation and circuit theory. Second, four scenarios of land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) in 2034 were assumed, namely business as usual (BAU), priority given to urban development (PUD), priority given to ecological protection (PEP), and balanced urban development and ecological protection (BUE). Then, the basic ecological constraints (ecological red line areas and waters) and three types of ESPs were coupled with the four scenarios. The results of the simulation and analysis of landscape metrics under each scenario showed that the PEP and BUE scenarios would effectively reduce the degree and speed of ecological destruction. In addition, there were three environmental functional areas that could be used as priority areas for urban construction to ensure economic development. This study provides a new mechanism for land use optimization in the context of ecological protection at scales conducive to practice.

Ecosystem services, landscape pattern, and landscape ecological risk zoning in China

Ecosystem services represent a bridge between natural ecosystems and human well-being and are closely associated with landscape ecological risk (LER). Delimiting reasonable LER areas is important for ecosystem protection, and it is essential to link ecosystem services to LER zoning. However, only a few studies have achieved this, and the zoning accuracy of LER remains poorly understood. Therefore, in this study, we evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) and LER index using the equivalent value method and landscape pattern index via the remote sensing of land use data at the county level in China in 2000-2015. We applied bivariate spatial autocorrelation as well as the grey correlation analysis model to analyse the ESV-LER spatial relationships and developed a general framework to improve the accuracy of LER zoning. We found that the average ESV increased from $761.42 thousand/km² in 2000 to $766.16 thousand/km² in 2015, while the LER index continuously decreased in China. We also discerned a significant negative correlation between ESV and LER (p < 0.001), whereas approximately 750 counties in China exhibited high ESV and low LER indices during the study period. The final LER zoning revealed that the high-LER areas in China were mainly located in the plain areas, and the proportion of counties with high LER levels increased from 17.97% in 2000 to 26.56% in 2015. Overall, our results have important implications for ecological security, future landscape planning and design, and ecologically sustainable development in China.

New-type urbanization ecologically reshaping China

Addressing critical ecological issues is one of the core objectives of the Chinese National New-type Urbanization Plan (NTU). However, there is not enough research to clearly demonstrate NTU's impact on environmental pollution. There is a need to provide solid empirical evidence from evaluation of the effects of NTU on environmental pollution. This study implements a series of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference analyses based on a comprehensive panel dataset spanning the period 2006-2017. The quantitative results show that NTU is largely conducive to curbing environmental pollution, with PM_2.5 concentrations as a proxy, and its robustness is demonstrated by the parallel trend test and placebo test. Further, the ecological effect of NTU is heterogeneous in terms of city level, location, and former pollution level. Small and medium cities benefit more than larger or central cities from NTU, and eastern cities exhibit better air quality improvement than cities in western regions. In addition, through quantile regression, we find that the positive outcomes of NTU are restricted by level of pollution, i.e., heavier pollution adds greatly to the difficulty of abatement.

Multiple pressures and vegetation conditions shape the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Human activities and environmental change can impact the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) as pressures. Understanding the mechanisms of these impacts is crucial to support ecological conservation and restoration policy and applications. In this study, we highlighted the contribution of vegetation to mitigating these impacts on ESs in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) of China. First, we identified hot and cold spots of pressures from human activities and environmental factors and mapped the cumulative provision of five ESs (i.e., water yield, soil retention, carbon sequestration, habitat quality, and landscape aesthetics). Then, we clustered these ESs into five bundles based on their supply level. Furthermore, structural equation modeling was used to quantify the pathways of multiple pressures on ESs. The results indicated that 1) for 2000, 2010 and 2019, the percentages of hot spots with high pressure were 28.88%, 27.59% and 45.66% respectively, with significant spatial heterogeneity from northwest to southeast; 2) both regions with high and low cumulative ES values experienced increased volatility; and 3) the joint effects of multiple pressures shaped ESs through pressure-ES (direct) and pressure-vegetation-ES (indirect) pathways. Specifically, precipitation had the largest positive effect on regulating services (rα ≥ 0.76), and landscape fragmentation had the largest negative effect on cultural services (-0.10 ≤ rα ≤ -0.07). Vegetation played an important role in modulating multiple pressures on ESs. This study contributes to ecosystem management by effectively coping with anthropogenic and environmental pressures and sustaining the supply of ESs, particularly in alpine and plateau regions.

Changing Food Consumption Pattern and Influencing Factors in Bangladesh

Food consumption is an important bridge between human beings and the natural ecosystem. The change in food consumption quantity and quality can reflect the relationship between them. This study aims to explore food consumption characteristics and the drivers of food consumption patterns in Bangladesh with a fragile ecology and polluted environment. This research selected food consumption in Bangladesh as the object, food consumption data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and the data of influencing factors mainly were acquired from the World Bank. The following results were conducted: The total and per capita food consumption showed increase as a whole, but per capita food consumption experienced decline in the middle of the research period. Food consumption patterns were divided into three types: the first type of cereal-sugar-aquatic with low food consumption quantity and few kinds of food from 1961 to 1971, the second type of cereal-sugar-oil-aquatic with increasing food consumption quantity and food kinds from 1972 to 1997, and the third type of cereal-aquatic-tuber-sugar-fruit-vegetable-meat with increasing food consumption quantity and more various kinds of food from 1998 to 2020. The characteristics of food consumption in different periods were influenced by a series of factors. The influence of economic factors was higher than other factors, relatively. According to this study, the characteristics of food consumption patterns and the relationship between food consumption and influencing factors can provide a scientific reference for the adjustment policy makers taking local food demand and natural resources conservation into consideration to achieve a sustainable development.

Investigation of Spatial Coupling Coordination Development: Identifying Land System States from the Adaptation-Conflict Perspective

With the advancement of global urbanization, ecosystem conservation and sustainable land development have become major issues. In this context, the uncoordinated and imbalanced development of the land-centered human-environment system requires urgent attention, especially in rust belt cities that pose critical challenges to regional land system sustainability. Therefore, taking Changchun City from 1990 to 2020 as an example, we identified and evaluated the ecosystem service (ES) balance and land use conflict from the perspectives of internal support and external development pressure. Based on the land system adaptation and conflict results, a coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) was constructed to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of land system development. The results indicated that there was an obvious downward trend in the regional ES balance, while areas with higher ES balance were mainly distributed in the eastern ecologically sound areas, and southern built-up areas presented deficient ES balance levels (i.e., demand exceeding supply), with a significant expansion trend from 1990 to 2020. Land use conflict was especially prominent in areas experiencing rapid rural-urban transformation, and the hot spots expanded noticeably. The spatio-temporal differences in the coupling coordination degree of ES balance and land use conflict were significant, whereas the land system of the study area has always been dominated by a balanced development pattern throughout the research period, except for the urban center, which tended to be in a stage of uncoordinated development, with the ES balance blocked. These findings suggest that it is necessary to coordinate urban and adjacent regions through regionally integrated efforts to alleviate the ES imbalance. This research can provide a scientific reference for analyzing regional land system states, coordinating the sustainable spatial development of ecosystems, and implementing revitalization strategies to achieve win-win land system goals.

Supply-Demand Evaluation of Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) Based on the Model of Coupling Coordination

The rational spatial allocation of Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI), which is an alternative land development approach for managing stormwater close to the source, exerts a crucial effect on coordinating urban development and hydrological sustainability. The balance between the supply and demand of urban facilities has been an influential standard for determining the rationality of this allocation. However, at this stage, research on evaluating planning from the perspective of supply-demand in GSI is still limited. This study proposed an evaluation method for assessing supply-demand levels in GSIs in Guangzhou, China, using the coupling coordination model consisting of Coupling Degree (CD) and Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD). Furthermore, the spatial distributions of supply-demand balance and resource mismatch were identified. The results indicated that the supply and demand levels of GSI exhibited significant spatial differences in distribution, with most streets being in short supply. The GSI exhibited a high CD value of 0.575 and a poor CCD value of 0.328, implying a significant imbalance in facility allocation. A lot of newly planned facilities failed to effectively cover the streets in need of improvement, so it became essential to adjust the planning scheme. The findings of this study can facilitate the decision-makers in assessing the supply-demand levels in GSI and provide a reference of facility allocation for the sustainable construction of Sponge City.

Impact of Urbanization on Ecosystem Services Balance in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt, China: A Multi-Scale Perspective

Urbanization intensification seriously interferes with the supply capacity and demand level of ecosystem services (ESs); therefore, it affects the balance state of ESs. Coordination of urbanization development and ecosystem protection in the ecological economic belt is vital for ecological protection and high-quality development of the ecological economic belt. However, previous studies lacked multi-scale analysis of the impact of urbanization elements on the ESs balance index (ESBI) in the ecological economic belt. In this study, a geographically weighted regression model was employed to measure the spatial non-stationary patterns associated with the impact of urbanization elements on the ESBI at 5 km and 10 km in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) in China based on land use data. The main findings were shown as follows. The supply capacity and demand level of ESs in the HREEB increased from 2000 to 2020 simultaneously, while the ESBI showed a decreasing trend. In mountainous areas, the ESBIs were evidently higher than those in the plain areas. During the study period, the urbanization level in the HREEB improved evidently, and the urbanization levels of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River were relatively high. Significant spatial dependence between urbanization elements and the ESBI was identified. Urbanization had significant positive and negative impacts on ESBI, and there were significant differences among different scales. The findings of this study can act as a decision-making reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the HREEB and can also provide a perspective for exploring the impact of urbanization on the ESBI of the ecological economic belt in other similar regions.

Coupling coordination analysis and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between sustainable development and ecosystem services in Shanxi Province, China

Excessive human activities destroy the structure and function of ecosystem and threaten sustainable development. As a typical resource-based area, Shanxi Province is facing an increasingly serious contradiction between ecosystem and sustainable development, with the overexploitation of resources. In view of this, the coupling coordination degree model was used to measure the association between sustainable development and ecosystem services (SDESs), and geographically and temporally weighted regression model was used to explore the correlation between SDESs and measure the correlation between ecosystem services (ESs) and sustainable development at the county level from 2000 to 2015 in Shanxi Province. The results showed an increase in the sustainable development level and all ESs except soil retention. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) of soil retention and sustainable development decreased, while other services increased. Habitat quality had the strongest negative correlation with sustainable development. There were obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneities in the CCD and correlation of SDESs, which is helpful for promoting regional sustainable development and optimize ecosystem decision-making.

Landscape Pattern Vulnerability of the Eastern Hengduan Mountains, China and Response to Elevation and Artificial Disturbance

The eastern Hengduan Mountains are located in the transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan Basin and are important for global biodiversity and water conservation in China. However, their landscape pattern vulnerability index (LVI) and its influencing factors have not been systematically studied. Therefore, the spatial distribution patterns, LVI, and the landscape artificial disturbance intensity (LHAI) of Ganzi Prefecture were analyzed using ArcGIS software based on landscape data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) digital elevation data. Then, the LVI response to LHAI and elevation was discussed. The results showed that Ganzi Prefecture was dominated by low- and middle-LVI areas, together accounting for 56.45% of the total area. LVI values were highest in the northern regions, followed by the southern and eastern regions. Batang and Derong counties had the highest LVI values. Most areas in Ganzi Prefecture had very low- or low-LHAI values, accounting for 81.48% of the total area, whereas high-LHAI areas accounted for 2.32% of the total area. Both the LVI and LHAI of Ganzi Prefecture had clustered distributions. Spearman analysis indicated that when elevation exceeded 4500 m, it was the most important factor affecting LVI and LHAI. In the range of 4500–5400 m, the relationship between elevation and LVI shifted from a weak positive correlation to a negative correlation, whereas LHAI was positively correlated with elevation. In addition, LVI also responded significantly to LHAI. However, the relationship kept changing as elevation increased. Hence, the ecological vulnerability of high elevation areas above 4500 m deserves greater attention. In addition, pasture areas in the upstream reaches of the Yalong River in the northern region, the coastal area in the downstream reaches of the Jinsha River in the southern region, and the eastern mining area, should be prioritized for protection and restoration. This research provides a basis for appropriate environmental planning mechanisms and policy protections at the landscape level.

Analysis of the Gross Ecosystem Product—Gross Domestic Product Synergistic States, Evolutionary Process, and Their Regional Contribution to the Chinese Mainland

The trade-off and synergy relationship between ecosystem services (ESs) and human well-being (HWb) in the land-use process has become a research hotspot. The evolutionary process and regional contribution of the accurate quantification of ESs and HWb can provide a reference for government departments to formulate macroeconomic policies. Therefore, this study first constructed an analysis framework to identify the synergistic states/evolutionary stages of the gross ecosystem product (GEP) per capita (PGEP) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (PGDP) and the regional contribution of the GEP–GDP synergy of 362 municipal units in mainland China from 2000 to 2015. We did this by employing the Markov transition probability matrix, land use data, and economic data based on satellite remote sensing images. The findings of this study show that (1) the PGEP of the Chinese mainland has a remarkable spatial divergence featuring a higher value in the northwestern Chinese mainland and a lower value in the southeastern Chinese mainland on both sides of the Hu Line during the investigation period; despite the eastern Chinese mainland having a higher PGDP, the PGDP at the national level is distributed in dispersion on both sides of the Hu Line; (2) during the first half of the investigation period, the GEP–GDP synergy in the Chinese mainland was generally in the pseudo-synergy stage or the transition stage from pseudo-synergy to primary/intermediate synergy, while in the second half of the period, the GEP–GDP synergy in the Chinese mainland continued to improve; (3) the GEP–GDP synergy was relatively stable on the Chinese mainland during the investigation period, with 24.28% of the units shifting to a lower or higher level synergy, and the GEP–GDP synergy was more stable in the western and central Chinese mainland, while it was more likely to shift to a higher state in the northeastern and eastern Chinese mainland. This study suggests that the GEP–GDP relationship varies with spatial scales; a hierarchical, multiscale approach is necessary to study and improve both of these relationships, as simply extrapolating policies across single administrative levels may lead to unintended outcomes.

Spatial mismatch of ecosystem service demands and supplies in China, 2000-2020

The supply capacity of ecosystem services (ES) in the past decades has shown a significant decrease globally, while ES demand capacity has increased. Identifying the spatial mismatch of ES supply and demand (ES S&D) can provide valuable knowledge about where the gaps are. Existing studies, however, lack specifics about the spatial mismatch of ES S&D-that is, few studies consider the coupling and decoupling relationship of ES S&D at the national scale. This study tries to fill the gap by examining the spatiotemporal distribution of ES S&D capacity in China from 2000 through 2020 using the land use/land cover matrix method. The spatial mismatch between ES S&D was ultimately identified by using coupling and decoupling analysis models. A continuous increase was found in the ES demand capacity in China during the period studied, while a continuous decline was found in the ES supply capacity. The coupling degree of the ES S&D was relatively higher in the plains areas. The strong negative decoupling was the dominant relationship between ES S&D, which was widely distributed in eastern and southeastern China. The spatial mismatch of ES S&D in China has increased substantially from 2000 through 2020. The findings in this study provide important implications for ES management and effective allocation of resources.

Simulation of Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flows under Land-Use Change: A Case Study of Lianshui River Basin, China

The service function of freshwater ecosystem is of great significance for ensuring the water security and the sustainable development of the social economy. However, it is vague how land-use change can influence freshwater ecosystem service flows. In this paper, we analyzed the land-use changes in the Lianshui River Basin from 2000 to 2018, built an ecosystem service flow model, and quantified the supply, demand, and flow of freshwater ecosystems under land-use change. The most intensified shifts of land-use change were the transfer of woodland to arable land and the transfer of arable land to built-up land. Urbanization and deforestation have increased water output by 0.06 billion m3, but water demand has increased by 2.42 billion m3, resulting in a 6% reduction in the flow of freshwater ecosystem services. Our study provides detailed information on freshwater ecosystem services flow from providers to beneficiaries within a watershed, showing how land-use change and ecosystem service flows can be integrated at the watershed scale to provide information for land-use management and the availability of freshwater ecosystems. Sustained development provides a scientific basis.

Assessment of spatial and temporal ecological environment quality under land use change of urban agglomeration in the North Slope of Tianshan, China

In the current context of rapid development and urbanization, land use and land cover (LULC) types have undergone unprecedented changes, globally and nationally, leading to significant effects on the surrounding ecological environment quality (EEQ). The urban agglomeration in North Slope of Tianshan (UANST) is in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt of China. This area has experienced rapid development and urbanization with equally rapid LULC changes which affect the EEQ. Hence, this study quantified and assessed the spatial-temporal changes of LULC on the UANST from 2001 to 2018 based on remote sensing analysis. Combining five remote sensing ecological factors (WET, NDVI, IBI, TVDI, LST) that met the pressure-state-response(PSR) framework, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of EEQ were evaluated by synthesizing a new Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI), with the interaction between land use change and EEQ subsequently analyzed. The results showed that LULC change dominated EEQ change on the UANST: (1) From 2001 to 2018, the temporal and spatial pattern of the landscape on the UANST has undergone tremendous changes. The main types of LULC in the UANST are Barren land and Grassland. (2) During the study period, RSEI values in the study area were all lower than 0.5 and were at the [good] levels, reaching 0.31, 0.213, 0.362, and 0346, respectively. In terms of time and space, the overall EEQ on the UANST experienced three stages of decline-rise-decrease. (3) The estimated changes in RSEI were highly related to the changes of LULC. During the period 2001 to 2018, the RSEI value of cropland showed a trend of gradual increase. However, the rest of the LULC type's RSEI values behave differently at different times. As the UANST is the core area of Xinjiang's urbanization and economic development, understanding and balancing the relationship between LULC and EEQ in the context of urbanization is of practical application in the planning and realization of sustainable ecological, environmental, urban, and social development in the UANST.

Ecosystem services and disservices in the Luanhe River Basin in China under past, current and future land uses: implications for the sustainable development goals

Understanding how ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem disservices (EDS) are affected by human-induced landscape changes is important to minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets, and for equitable development across governance scales. However, limited research investigates how ES and EDS can change under past, current, and future land uses. This study, conducted in the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), demonstrates the interaction between humans and the environment under past, current, and future land uses at the river basin scale in China, using a stakeholders' participatory capacity matrix to characterise both ES and EDS. Results indicate that forests and water bodies provided the highest overall ES capacity, while the lowest scores were reached in built-up and unused land areas. Built-up land and cropland provided the highest overall EDS, while the lowest EDS scores were for water bodies. By applying the ecosystem services potential index (ESPI) and ecosystem disservices potential index (EDSPI), we found that the ESPI of all the ES declined from 1980 to 2018 and would continue to decline until 2030 without sustainable and conservation development strategies in the LRB. The EDSPI under all future scenarios in 2030 was projected to increase compared to the baseline in 1980. This study recommends establishing and implementing sustainable environmental protection policies and cross-regional and trans-provincial eco-compensation schemes for minimising trade-offs in ES. The study proposes an integrated research framework that could be useful for understanding the effect of historical and future human-environment interactions on ES and EDS, and SDGs achievement.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01078-8.

Ecosystem service multifunctionality assessment and coupling coordination analysis with land use and land cover change in China's coastal zones

Ecosystem services (ESs) have received widespread attention worldwide for their potential to solve sustainability issues. However, extensive land use and land cover change (LUCC) driven by human activities has raised concerns regarding its impacts on ESs, especially in coastal zones. More importantly, spatial-temporal changes, their coupling relationships with LUCC, and their underlying drivers have not been thoroughly analyzed. This study focuses on China's coastal zones to investigate the spatial-temporal changes of ecosystem service multifunctionality (ESM) from 2000 to 2018. Coupling coordination degree (CCD) analysis of the relationship between ESM and comprehensive intensity of land use was applied to identify coastal cities with low-level coordination and their main drivers in 2018. The results show that: (1) the proportion with high levels of ESM decreased by 1.01% from 2000 to 2010 and then increased by 3.29% from 2010 to 2018; (2) the ESM of China's coastal zones present significant spatial heterogeneity, and the low levels of ESM are mainly distributed in the north and urban areas, while most areas in the southern coastal zones have high levels of ESM; (3) forest land is the leading land cover type for ESM, and China's forest conservation policies significantly contribute to the increase in ESM; (4) the CCD of most cities in the southern coastal zones, apart from Shanghai and the Pearl River Delta, is at a relatively high level and experiences no significant changes, while most cities in the northern coastal zones display an improving trend; (5) the land use type, landform type, and leaf area index are the determinants of ESM, and the annual average temperature, population density, and surface elevation are the greatest influences on the CCD. The findings of this study can inform ecological conservation and landscape planning and are beneficial to the sustainable development of coastal zones in China.

Coupling coordination analysis and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between urbanization and ecosystem health in Chongqing municipality, China

Rapid urbanization has seriously disturbed the structure and function of ecosystems and caused many eco-environmental problems, in turn, these problems also reduce the quality of urbanization and threaten the sustainable development of urban. Currently, most studies only focus on the impact of urbanization on ecosystem components (i.e., structure, functions or services), few studies have explored the coordination and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between urbanization and ecosystem health from a systematic view. Therefore, in viewing of this, this study integrated coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) to measure the interaction relationship and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between urbanization and ecosystem health (UAEH) in Chongqing at the county scale from 1997 to 2015. Results showed that: 1) the degree of coordination between UAEH in Chongqing increased gradually from 1997 to 2015, developed from the moderately unbalance stage to moderately balance stage, and experienced a transition from urbanization lag to ecosystem health lag. Moreover, the coupling coordination degree showed a decreased spatial trend from the western to the eastern of Chongqing. 2) The restriction effect between UAEH gradually weakened from 1997 to 2015, and the synergistic effect between them gradually strengthened. Additionally, the interaction between UAEH tended to converge, and the negative effects between UAEH were mainly distributed in the central and western of Chongqing. In these area, population urbanization aggravated the deterioration of the natural ecosystem, in turn, the decline of ecosystem vigor and resilience also restricted the sustainable development of urbanization. Finally, this study also puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations based on each region's coupling type.

Driving Factor Analysis of Ecosystem Service Balance for Watershed Management in the Lancang River Valley, Southwest China

Revealing the spatio-temporal change of the supply, demand and balance of ecosystem services (ESs) associated with human activities and land-use changes is of great significance for watershed ecosystem management. Taking the Lancang river valley as a case, we explicitly studied the ES spatial characteristics, using the land use/land cover (LULC) matrix model, Optimized Hot Spot Analysis and landscape pattern analysis. Furthermore, we screened out the dominant explanatory variables that had significant influence on the ES supply, demand and balance by means of the Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method at pixel scale. The results showed that the ES demand intensity varied little throughout the watershed, while the downstream ES supply capacity and balance values were greater than upstream ones. Meanwhile, the hotspots of ES supply and demand were mainly distributed in the south part with coldspots in the north part. Human activity factors integrating landscape pattern variables were verified to have a negative impact on the ES balance in general. Among them, the Largest Patch Index (LPI) had a negative influence on the majority of pixels, while the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), cultivated land ratio and Area Weighted Average Patch Fractal Dimension (AWAPFD) had positive effects on a few pixels. This study will provide scientific support for regional ecosystem service trade-off and regulation at multiple scales.

Spatio-temporal variations and coupling of human activity intensity and ecosystem services based on the four-quadrant model on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Human activities have an impact on the structure and function of ecosystems, which in turn affects ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand. Based on the four-quadrant model of human activities and ecosystem services, this study evaluated the ecological quality at the county scale on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Results showed: (1) Human activity intensity (HAI) showed great spatio-temporal variations across the QTP. The mean HAI was low overall and increased by 4% during 2000-2015. HAI in more than 13% of the area of the QTP showed an increasing trend and high HAI levels were mainly distributed in the eastern and central parts. A low HAI level occupied the majority of the study area and declined during the period. (2) The mean ES balance declined during the period and exhibited great spatial variations, with the higher ES balance mainly distributed in the mid-eastern cities of the QTP. The ES balance in approximately 68% of the cities decreased, indicating the ESs were in degradation, with demand exceeding supply. (3) Approximately 98% of the study area, including 205 counties, was in the first, second and fourth quadrant, and only 2% was in the third quadrant, indicating that ecological quality became better overall on the QTP. During 2000-2015, 87.14% of counties were nearly unchangeable-these were distributed in the most regions of the QTP, and only 9.79% and 3.08% of counties were improving and degrading, respectively, mainly distributed in the mid-eastern regions. The change implied that the ecosystems were basically in a stable state and the environment greatly improved on the QTP from 2000 to 2015. This study contributes to exploring the effect of human activity on ecosystem service, thereby providing credible guidance for regional ecosystem management.

Provincial perspective analysis on the coordination between urbanization growth and resource environment carrying capacity (RECC) in China

China has been implementing huge scale of urbanization in the past several decades and this will continue in the coming future years. Whilst the urbanization growth has presented good benefits to social and economic development in China, it has also brought severe challenges to the resource environment carrying capacity, such as air pollution, overloaded land resources. These challenges present differently in different provinces, which leads to the disparity in development between provinces. There has been growing concern whether the urbanization growth in different provinces is coordinated with resource environment carrying capacity (RECC), but this question has not been addressed in previous studies. This paper presents a critical analysis on the coordination between urbanization growth and resources environment carrying capacity (RECC) from provincial perspective in the context of China. A measurement of coordination degree (CD) is used to measure whether and to what extent that urbanization growth and RECC are coordinated by applying coupling coordination degree model (CCDM). The research data are collected from 30 provinces in China. The results suggest that the average coordination performance among the provinces experienced a steady growth during the period of 2005-2016, but there still exists big room for improvement towards well balanced coordination performance. From provincial perspective, the good performers are mainly economically developed provinces. The findings provide valuable references for the governments at both central and local level to adopt proper policy measures where necessary to improvement the coordination performance between urbanization and RECC.

Spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem services value in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic zone from 1980 to 2030

Rapid agricultural land expansion and urbanization have accelerated land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone and have significantly impacted on the ecosystem services (ESs). However, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem service value (ESV) to LUCC are not well understood. Based on the land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1980 to 2019, we used a CA-Markov model to predict LUCC in 2020 and 2030, assess the spatial-temporal changes of ESV and LULC during 1980–2030, and explore the elastic response of ESV to LUCC. We found that cropland and built-up land expanded rapidly by 34.38% and 196.66%, respectively between 1980 and 2030, while grassland and unutilized land decreased significantly by 11.45% and 10.26%, respectively. The ESV of water body, cropland, grassland and forestland accounts for more than 90% of the total ESV. Our research shows that the ESV of cropland increased 32 million yuan from 1980 to 2030, mainly due to the expansion of cropland area. However, the loss caused by the reduction of grassland area was 45 million yuan. Water conservation, waste treatment, soil formation and retention, and biodiversity conservation are the primary ecosystem service function, accounting for 71.82% of the total ESV. Despite notable increases in the ESV from 1980 to 2010, grassland degradation still remains a main ecological and environmental issue from 2010 to 2030. The results suggest that effective land use policies should be developed to control the expansion of croplands and protect water body, grassland and forestland to maintain more sustainable ESs.

Regional Spatial Management Based on Supply-Demand Risk of Ecosystem Services-A Case Study of the Fenghe River Watershed

The supply–demand risk assessment of ecosystem services (ES) can identify the supply–demand risk level, which is very important for the sustainable management of regional ES. In this study, taking the Fenghe River watershed (FRW) as a case, based on the status and the change trend of the supply–demand ratio of ES, and the ES supply change trend, the supply–demand risk level of food provision (FP), water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and climate regulation (CR) are evaluated, and the risk management zones of the FRW are divided using spatial superposition. The results show that: (1) The supply and demand of SR are spatially matched, while the other three ES are spatially mismatched. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the supply amount of FP, WY, and SR increases by 11.59%, 1.25% and 55%, respectively, while the supply amount of CR decreases by 5.15%. At the same time, the demand amount of FP, WY, SR and CR increases by 39.97%, 53.88%, 36.3% and 215.5%, respectively. (3) The supply–demand ratio means of four ES in the FRW are all greater than 0, but there are some areas within that are less than 0. (4) In terms of sub-watershed scale, except for SR, there are critically endangered areas for the other three ES. Moreover, the FRW is divided into 11 supply–demand risk management zones, such as FS-WY-CR critically endangered zone, WY-CR critically endangered and FS vulnerable zone. The supply–demand risk management zones based on multiple ES can identify the risk level of each ES in each zone. These results and conclusions can provide the basis for rational allocation of resources and sustainable management of ES.

Future Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Scenarios in the Ecological Conservation Area, Beijing, China

Ecosystem services (ES), defined as benefits provided by the ecosystem to society, are essential to human well-being. However, it remains unclear how they will be affected by land-use changes due to lack of knowledge and data gaps. Therefore, understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services to land-use change is critical for developing systematic and sound land planning. In this study, we aimed to explore the impacts of land-use change on the three ecosystem services, carbon storage (CS), flood regulation (FR), and soil conservation (SC), in the ecological conservation area of Beijing, China. We first projected land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, under three scenarios, i.e., Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Land Protection (ELP), and Rapid Economic Development (RED), by interactively integrating the Markov model (Quantitative simulation) with the GeoSOS-FLUS model (Spatial arrangement), and then quantified the three ecosystem services by using a spatially explicit InVEST model. The results showed that built-up land would have the most remarkable growth during 2015–2030 under the RED scenario (2.52% increase) at the expense of cultivated and water body, while forest land is predicted to increase by 152.38 km2 (1.36% increase) under the ELP scenario. The ELP scenario would have the highest amount of carbon storage, flood regulation, and soil conservation, due to the strict protection policy on ecological land. The RED scenario, in which a certain amount of cultivated land, water body, and forest land is converted to built-up land, promotes soil conservation but triggers greater loss of carbon storage and flood regulation capacity. The conversion between land-use types will affect trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, in which carbon storage would show significant positive correlation with soil conservation through the period of 2015 to 2030, under all scenarios. Together, our results provide a quantitative scientific report that policymakers and land managers can use to identify and prioritize the best practices to sustain ecosystem services, by balancing the trade-offs among services.

The Construction of a Regional Ecological Security Pattern Based on Circuit Theory

The construction of an ecological security pattern (ESP) is one of the basic methods to protect regional ecological security and enhance people’s well-being. In the case of Anhui province, located in the Yangtze River Delta region of China, regional ecological sources were assessed and recognized in terms of ecosystem services, and regional ESP was then constructed based on circuit theory. Current density was applied to analyze the significance of patches and corridors and recognize sticking points, and thereby strategies were introduced to optimize regional ESP. Results of ecosystem services function assessment showed that there were 47 ecological patches, 107 ecological corridors, 16 pinch points, and six sticking points in the ESP of Anhui province. The watershed of the Yangtze and Huai rivers divides the ESP of the northern and southern Anhui, which has huge landscape spatial heterogeneity. Areas with relatively good ecological resources were basically located between Dabie Mountain area in the west and the low hilly area in the south of Anhui, with mostly woodland and farmland as ecological sources. However, cities in the northern Anhui, also in the north of the watershed of the Yangtze and Huai rivers, face severe situations in terms of environmental protection. This study conducted spatial analyses on ESP with different thresholds and proposed to classify different ESPs according to ecological control. This helps to alleviate the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection, and improve the supply capacity of regional ecosystem services, in order to satisfy the regional demand for ecosystem services. Meanwhile, this study offers more methods to construct regional ESP and introduces targeted measures to improve connectivity, which is of practical guidance for the connectivity and optimization of ecological patterns.