Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes

Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on landscape sensitivity in Tunca River sub-basin: Use in spatial planning and sectoral decision processes

Managing landscape change is increasingly challenging due to rapid anthropogenic shifts. A delicate balance must be struck between the environment and change to ensure landscapes can withstand these impacts. This study conducted in the Tunca River sub-basin of Edirne province, aims to assess landscape sensitivity by examining the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on landscape function processes. For this purpose, a methodology was developed based on ecosystem services to determine landscape sensitivity. The results revealed a LULC transformation that could lead to a 60% reduction in forest areas and a 5% and 20% increase in urban and irrigated agricultural areas, respectively. Water and erosion emerged as the most affected landscape function processes. Future scenarios from 2050 to 2070 indicate noteworthy changes in landscape sensitivity, showing an increase in sensitivity in the upper regions of the basin. The study identified high sensitivity in forested areas, moderate sensitivity in agricultural zones, and low sensitivity in micro-basins near residential areas. Protection and improvement strategies are recommended for areas with high and moderate sensitivity, while use-oriented strategies are suggested for those with low sensitivity. This study also establishes a scientific foundation for guiding the protection and management of ecologically sensitive basin areas, offering insights into the effects of landscape change processes at the micro-basin level in connection with climate change models.

Exploring the evolution of coupled natural-cultural ecosystem services and their geographically scaled driven modeling in a coastal city of Southeast China

Rapid urban expansion and economic development challenges to the sustainability of ecosystem services (ESs), a solid understanding of the mechanisms that drive ESs helps policymakers to respond. However, few existing studies on ES-driven mechanisms emphasize the integration of natural and cultural services, with most neglecting spatial non-stationarity at the geographic scale. Here, we improved the ROS model to quantify cultural ecosystem services (CES) and developed a comprehensive ecosystem services index (CESI) by coupling CES with 6 typical natural ESs (carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), nitrogen export (NE), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), food supply (FS)), subsequently, Spearman's correlation and MGWR were employed to reveal the CESI-driven mechanism considering geographic scales. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, CS, WY, SC, and HQ exhibited decline, which contrasts with the significant increase in CES. (2) The CESI showed a decreasing trend (3.28-3.70) while the coefficient of variation was increasing over time (0.11-0.15). The overall spatial distribution of CESI shows higher northwest than southeast, with strong spatial autocorrelation. (3) The CESI exhibits synergistic associations with CS, SC, HQ, and CES (0.54-0.83), and forms trade-offs with WY, NE, and FS. (4) Climate, vegetation, landscape, human, and topography have significant effects on CES and CESI with a significantly geographic scale differences, especially areas closer to the sea exhibit heightened sensitivity. Besides, the combined effects of multiple factors are stronger than any individual driver. The results emphasize the necessity of introducing ecological land in coastal cities and establishing natural reserves in high CESI areas to maintain diversity. The study improves the CES assessment methodology and proposes an integrated analytical framework that combines natural and cultural ESs with geographic-scale drivers, providing a new perspective on the analysis of ESs mechanisms.

Factor analysis of hydrologic services in water-controlled grassland ecosystems by InVEST model and geodetector

Water conservation is highly important for a successful desert grassland ecosystem, but there was no comprehensive view on how to assess influencing factors in managing and addressing water yield and water conservation in desert steppe. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, which is specifically used for the assessment of ecosystem services, was combined with geographic detectors to identify the priority areas for water conservation function and analyze the driving factors of water conservation in the Tabu River Basin, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, using different meteorological data sources. (i) The InVEST model has the advantage of modeling water yield and water conservation at spatial scales by fusion downscaling data. High water yield mainly occurs in the southern hilly mountainous areas, low water yield in the northern desert and grassland areas, and between the two in the central agro-pastoral areas; the multi-year average water conservation and water yield based on the InVEST model are 3.3 and 16 mm, respectively. (ii) Water yield and water conservation roughly show a transitional phenomenon of "high in the south and low in the north." The water yield and water conservation per unit area of the Tabu River Basin are relatively large for construction land, unused land, and cropland, relatively small for grassland and forestland, and basically zero for water bodies. Forest land has the strongest water conservation capacity, followed by grassland and farmland, while the order of water yield capacity is the opposite. (iii) Precipitation shows the strongest explanatory power for water yield (q = 0.427), followed by land use types (q = 0.411). The precipitation ∩ actual evapotranspiration has the strongest explanatory power for water yield (q = 0.87). The explanatory power of water yield on water conservation is the strongest (q = 0.752), followed by precipitation (q = 0.4), and the water yield ∩ soil has the greatest explanatory power on water conservation (q = 0.91). These findings are crucial for promoting regional hydrologic services and can provide a water resources management strategy for decision-makers.

Long-Term Effects of Ecological Restoration Projects on Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Interactions: A Case Study of Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to comprehensively intervene in damaged or deteriorating ecosystems, restore them, improve the provision of ecosystem services, and achieve harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Implementing ecological restoration projects leads to continuous changes in land use/land cover. Studying the long-term changes in land use/land cover and their impacts on ecosystem services, as well as the trade-off and synergy between these services, helps evaluate the long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in restoring ecosystems. Therefore, this study analyzes the land use/land cover, and ecosystem services of the Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China to address this. Since 2000, the area has undergone multiple ecological restoration projects, divided roughly into two stages: 2003-2013 and 2013-2021. The InVEST model is used to quantify three essential ecosystem services in mountainous regions (water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation), and redundancy analysis identifies the primary driving factors influencing their changes. We conducted spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the interplay among ecosystem services under long-term land use/land cover change. The results indicate a decrease in the total supply of water yield (-5.14%) and carbon storage (-3.21%) in the first phase. However, the second phase shows an improvement in ecosystem services, with an increase in the total supply of water yield (11.45%), carbon storage (27.58%), and soil conservation (21.95%). The redundancy analysis results reveal that land use/land cover are the primary driving factors influencing the changes in ecosystem services. Furthermore, there is a shift in the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services at different stages, with significant differences in spatial distribution. The findings of this study provide more spatially targeted suggestions for the restoration and management of tropical montane rainforests in the future.

Obeying Authority: Should We Trust Them or Not?

Researchers claim impartiality when conducting research and suggest their motives are to improve knowledge. However, when investigating the history of research into obedience to authority, propaganda and power-knowledge are present as well as emotional ties that affect the motives and methods of investigating these areas. With published work from US President Woodrow Wilson proposing obeying authority is necessary to functional societies and the Vatican displaying power-knowledge when censoring heliocentric views, it seems some researchers have ulterior motives. Although researchers like Piaget and Milgram appear to be more integral researchers, Piaget like many utilised observational methods that lack replicability, and Milgram's family history with the events of the Holocaust pose additional issues. Therefore, considering the General Demarcation Problem, it is difficult to distinguish between science and pseudoscience, given all researchers will consider the research they conduct in the present day to be the correct way of doing so. However, adopting a critical mind as to who is conducting the research and the wider implications of who it serves and who it does not serve, would be beneficial for academia and wider society. This comes in a time where many reject the science of critical world issues such as COVID-19 and climate change.

Four-decade (1977-2017) landscape tale of tourist reservoir hotspot El Piñol-Guatapé, Colombia

Efficient management of land use/land cover (LULC) features is vital for a balanced sustainable ecosystem. Thus, this work aimed to document the LULC changes in the less studied El Peñol-Guatapé reservoir, Antioquia, Colombia, especially in the reservoir area due to the construction of a hydro-electric power plant. For this study, Landsat images of 1977, 1986, 1997, and 2017 were used and the results indicated an increase in the settlement area and road networks by 0.10 and 0.60%, respectively, while during 1986 to 2017, cropland, plantation, dense forest, and open forest areas presented an increase of 0.52, 1.06, 2.87 and 2.61%, respectively. However, the marshy vegetation, scrub forest and fallow land decreased to - 0.51, - 3.79 and - 4.29%, respectively, in the same period. The water body before and after the completion of reservoir project denoted an increase from 13.1 km² in 1977 to 45.7 km² in 1986. This study provides a first-hand report on LULC dynamics in this tourism dominated municipalities that will serve as a reference for ecosystem management to reconcile the conflicts between different LULC classes in ecologically enriched regions.

Impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

This study examined the impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in the Kaduna River basin, Nigeria. Large-scale atmospheric variables derived from the Global Climate Model (GCM), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (CanESM2) were used to develop a high-resolution climate using a Statistical Down Scaling Model. The adapted Caussinus-Mestre algorithm for homogenizing networks of temperature series and multivariate bias correction based on an N-dimension probability function were used to homogenize and correct the climate data, respectively. Fifteen climate extreme indices were computed using RClimdex. The coefficient of variance, Kruskal-Wallis test, and the modified Mann-Kendall test were used to assess the variation and trends. Wavelet analysis was used to determine the periodicities of the indices (1980-2020). The findings revealed a significant warming trend with low variability of temperature indices. The moderate variability with an insignificant decreasing trend was found for rainfall indices. Similarly, the future climate indices indicate a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices. The majority of climate indices have a periodicity of less than or equal to 10 years for high frequency, except for PRCPTOT, R10MM, R20MM, Rx5day, SDII, TN90p, and TX90p for temperature indices. The findings conclude that the periodicity pattern of climate extreme indices is related to atmospheric phenomena (such as quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO), which indicate the impact of climate change. As a result, this can serve as an early warning for possible extreme event occurrences in the basin. The CMIP6 should be used to compare with the results of this study to provide a detailed assessment of the current implication of climate change on the catchment.

Determination of the optimum number of sample points to classify land cover types and estimate the contribution of trees on ecosystem services using the I-Tree Canopy tool

The process of producing information about dynamic land use and land cover and ecosystem health quickly with high accuracy and low cost is important. This information is one of the basic data used for sustainable land management. For this purpose, remote sensing technologies are generally used, and sampling points are mostly assigned. Determination of the optimum number of sampling points using the I-Tree Canopy tool was the main focus of this study. The I-Tree Canopy tool classifies land cover, revealing the effects of tree cover on ecosystem services, such as carbon (C) sequestration and storage, temperature regulation, air pollutant filtering, and air quality improvement, with numerical data. It is used because it is practical, open source, and user-friendly. This software works based on sampling point assignment, but it is unclear how many sampling points should be assigned. Therefore, determining the optimum number of sample points by statistical methods will increase the effectiveness of this tool and guide users. For this purpose, reference data were created for comparison. Then, 31 I-Tree Canopy reports were created with 100-point increments up to 3100. The data obtained from the reports were compared with the reference data, and statistical analysis based on Gaussian and a second-order polynomial fit was performed. At the end of the analysis, the following results were obtained; the results of this study demonstrated that the optimum number of sample points for a 1-ha area is 760 ± 32 from the comparison of the real area and I-Tree Canopy results. Similar results from the Gaussian fit of annually sequestered and stored C and carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) amounts in trees and the reduction in air pollution in grams were obtained as 714 ± 16. Therefore, we may conclude that taking more than 800 sample points will not be statistically significant. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:726-734. © 2022 SETAC.

Novel spatial models for analysis the long-term impact of LULC changes on hydrological components at sub-basin level

The main objective of this research is to assess the impacts land use and land cover changes (LULC) on hydrological components using novel spatial models at sub-basin scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to analyze the long-term effect of LULC on hydrological components. The results of the calibrated and validated SWAT model demonstrated that run-off and actual evapotranspiration (ET) are expected to experience the largest increase, more than 130% and 90% in autumn, whereas the largest decrease is anticipated to occur in the summer and winter for potential evapotranspiration (PET) (-59%) and ET (-80%) by the projected time. The impacts of hydrological components, elevation, LULC, and an indicator of urbanization and land-use intensity (La) on water yield (WYLD) at sub-basin levels were then considered by four novel spatial models due to the problem of multicollinearity which is prevalent in traditional models. In particular, the Moran eigenvector spatially varying coefficients (MESVC) showed that the soil class out of LULC categories and lateral flow among hydrological properties are expected to have a statistically significant effect on spatial fluctuation of WYLD at the sub-basin scale. The results of spatially filtered unconditional quantile regression (SF-UQR) confirm the findings of the MESVC model and further implied that the lateral flow remains as a statistically significant contributor to WYLD only in lower quantiles (e.g., for quantiles lower than 0.25). The impacts of LULCs on WYLD were statistically lower than the effects caused by the hydrological components.

Quantitative estimation of the PM2.5 removal capacity and influencing factors of urban green infrastructure

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 (fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) could cause great harm to human health and sustainable development. It remains a challenge to estimate the long-term PM_2.5 removal capacity of nature-based green infrastructure in urban areas. In this paper, the annual PM_2.5 removal capacity of urban green infrastructure (UGI) from 2000 to 2019 in Shenyang was estimated based on the PM2.5 dry deposition model. The spatial heterogeneity of annual PM_2.5 removal capacity were detected Sen-MK test and local spatial autocorrelations analysis. Then the effects of landscape patterns and socioeconomic variables on PM_2.5 removal capacity were explored based on linear regression model. The results illustrated that the PM_2.5 removal capacity of UGI increased significantly from 2000 to 2019 in Shenyang, with the amount of PM_2.5 removal, PM_2.5 removal flux and removal rate increasing by 20.64 Mg/a, 0.0258 g/m²/a, and 0.377 %/a, respectively. The PM_2.5 removal capacity of UGI exhibited spatial heterogeneity in the study area. Specifically, the regions experiencing the increase in PM_2.5 removal capacity of UGI accounted for majority of the old urban area of Shenyang City during the study period; the lower PM_2.5 removal capacity clustered in the center urban area, in which high density impervious surfaces distributed, while the higher PM_2.5 removal capacity mainly gathered in the area with large scale green space; PM_2.5 removal capacity were significantly higher in urban functional zones with a high proportion of green spaces. The landscape metrics representing fragmentation and shape complexity positively affected the annual PM_2.5 removal flux and removal rate, while the aggregation metrics had significantly negative correlations with the PM_2.5 removal flux and removal rate. Moreover, it was also found that population density and GDP negatively affected the PM_2.5 removal capacity of UGI. This study provides a methodological reference and some new insights for future urban landscape planning and air pollution purification.

Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China

High-frequency land-use changes caused by rapid economic development have become a key factor in the imbalance of carbon sequestration within regions. How to balance economic development and ecological protection is a difficult issue for regional planning. Studying the relationship between future land-use changes and ecosystem carbon storage (CS) is of important significance for the optimization of regional land-use patterns. The research used the gray prediction model and coupled the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. On this basis, the evolution characteristics and spatial coordination between land-use changes and CS in the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB) in different scenarios in 2030 were simulated. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of CS remains stable in different scenarios, while land-use types with high carbon density in the periphery of cities are constantly invaded by construction land, which results in the greatest carbon loss in the urban areas. (2) Compared with the natural evolution scenario (NES), only 195.19 km² of land-use types with high carbon density are transformed into construction land in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), generating a carbon sink gain of 182.47 × 10⁴ Mg. Conversely, in the economic development scenario (EDS), a total of over 1400 km² of farmland and ecological land are transformed into construction land, which weakens the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, and more than 147 × 10⁴ Mg of carbon loss occurs in the urban areas. (3) The planned development scenario (PDS) takes ecological protection and economic development both into consideration, which not only generates a carbon sink gain of 121.33 × 10⁴ Mg but also reduces the carbon loss in urban areas by more than 50%. The PDS performs well in both land use and CS growth and can better motivate the effect of land-use changes in increasing the carbon sink, which is also proved by analysis of the coordination between land-use intensity (LUI) and CS. Therefore, the PDS better satisfies the future development demand of DLB and can provide a reference for sustainable land use in the basin.

Non-linear effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers on ecosystem services: Integrating thresholds into conservation planning

Ecosystem services (ESs) have been widely used for ecological protection and land spatial planning. Natural and anthropogenic drivers exhibit a strong dynamic coupling relationship with ESs. However, current ESs-related research focused on mapping the ESs spatially or investing the trade-offs and synergies relationship between ES, ignoring the nonlinear response of ESs to natural and anthropogenic drivers. Here we aimed to investigate the nonlinear effect of 14 potential drivers (8 natural and 6 anthropogenic) on the total value of six typical ESs (ESV). Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) in China as an example, we established 14 constrain lines and identified critical thresholds through the restricted cubic splines (RCS) regression. We found strong non-linear impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on ESV and critical thresholds existed among all the 14 constrain lines. The RCS plots showed that the overall ESV was kept at a high level before or after certain thresholds (e.g., altitude >687 m, slope >13.4°, NDVI >0.7, distance from water <31.2 km, etc.). We categorized these threshold combinations and found the potentially high ES delivery areas were mainly distributed in the Yanshan Mountian, accounting for approximately 5% of the total BTH region. These critical thresholds offer a new method to delineate conservation and restoration priority areas.

Research on land-use evolution and ecosystem services value response in mountainous counties based on the SD-PLUS model

Rapid urbanization has caused changes in climate and environment and threatened the ecosystem with multiple risks. The ecosystem services capacity has shown a downward trend accordingly. It is significant to explore the spatio‐temporal evolution of land use and ecosystem services value (ESV) in mountainous counties at small scales, as it coordinates economic growth and ecological protection, and promotes sustainable and high‐quality development. Based on the SD‐PLUS model, the study simulated three scenarios of land‐use change in Qianshan city from 2019 to 2035: high‐growth rate, medium‐growth rate, and low‐growth rate, and studied the impacts of land‐use change on the ESV. Results showed that: (1) Under the three scenarios, the construction land in the study area increased significantly, the forest and water have a decreasing trend, and the scale of gardens partly increased. (2) In the urban built‐up areas, a significant amount of construction land is centrally expanded, whereas, in mountainous regions, construction land exhibits sporadic point expansion. And among the various factors that influence land‐use change, the impact of roads at all levels is the most significant, followed by elevation. (3) The overall ESV shows a downward trend, with the low‐growth rate scenario dropping the least (4.91%). The value distribution changes little at the space scale, and different regions demonstrate different degrees of change. From the perspective of value type, the service values of water conservation and waste treatment are significantly reduced, while that of food production is relatively stable; from the perspective of various lands with their ESV, cultivated land and forest remain stable. The study results can provide technical ideas for the coordinated economic development and ecological protection of mountainous cities and boost the implementation of green development.

Combined effects of multi-land use decisions and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Northeast China

Land use intensification and climate change have resulted in substantial changes in the provision of ecosystem services, particularly in China that experienced sharp increases in population growth and demands for goods and energy. To protect the environment and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government has implemented multiple national ecological restoration projects. Yet, the combined effects of climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) over large spatial scales that brace multiple land use decisions and great environmental heterogeneity remain unclear. We assessed the combined effects of LULCC and climate change on water-related ecosystem services (water provision and soil conservation services) from 1990s to 2020s in Northeast China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We found that water yield decreased by 9.78% and soil retention increased by 30.51% over the past 30 years. LULCC and climate change exerted negative effects on water yield whereas they both enhanced soil retention; LULCC interacted with climate change to have relatively small inhibitory effects on water yield and large facilitation effects on soil retention. Changes in water yield were mainly attributed to climate change, while soil retention was largely influenced by LULCC and its interaction with climate change. Our research highlights the importance of land use decisions and its interactive effects with climate change on ecosystem services in a heavily disturbed temperate region, and provides important information to inform future land management and policy making for sustaining diverse ecosystem services and ensuring human wellbeing.

Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Integrating Land Use, Ecosystem Service, and Human Well-Being: A Systematic Review

Global change, population growth, and urbanization have been exerting a severe influence on the environment, including the social system and ecosystem. To find solutions based on nature, clarifying the complicated mechanisms and feedback among land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being, is increasingly crucial. However, the in-depth linkages among these three elements have not been clearly and systematically illustrated, present research paths have not been summarized well, and the future research trends on this topic have not been reasonably discussed. In this sense, the purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into how land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being are linked, as well as their relationships, interacting ways, applications in solving ecological and socioeconomic problems, and to reveal their future research trends. Here, we use a systematic literature review of the peer-reviewed literature to conclude the state of the art and the progress, emphasize the hotspot, and reveal the future trend of the nexus among the three aspects. Results show that (1) ecosystem services are generally altered by the changes in land use type, spatial pattern, and intensity; (2) the nexus among land use change, ecosystem services, and human well-being is usually used for supporting poverty alleviation, ecosystem health, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development; (3) future research on land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being should mainly focus on strengthening multiscale correlation, driving force analysis, the correlation among different group characteristics, land use types and ecosystem service preferences, and the impact of climate change on ecosystem services and human well-being. This study provides an enhanced understanding of the nexus among the three aspects and a reference for future studies to mitigate the relevant problems.

Evidence for Alternate Stable States in an Ecuadorian Andean Cloud Forest

Tree diversity inventories were undertaken. The goal of this study was to understand changes in tree community dynamics that may result from common anthropogenic disturbances at the Reserva Los Cedros, a tropical montane cloud forest reserve in northern Andean Ecuador. The reserve shows extremely high alpha and beta tree diversity. We found that all primary forest sites, regardless of age of natural gaps, are quite ecologically resilient, appearing to return to a primary-forest-type community of trees following gap formation. In contrast, forests regenerating from anthropogenic disturbance appear to have multiple possible ecological states. Where anthropogenic disturbance was intense, novel tree communities appear to be assembling, with no indication of return to a primary forest state. Even in ancient primary forests, new forest types may be forming, as we found that seedling community composition did not resemble adult tree communities. We also suggest small watersheds as a useful basic spatial unit for understanding biodiversity patterns in the tropical Andes that confound more traditional Euclidean distance as a basic proxy of dissimilarity. Finally, we highlight the conservation value of Reserva Los Cedros, which has managed to reverse deforestation within its boundaries despite a general trend of extensive deforestation in the surrounding region, to protect a large, contiguous area of highly endangered Andean primary cloud forest.

Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon storage in the Western Sichuan Plateau

The carbon sequestration function of the ecosystem is one of the most important functions of ecosystem service, and it of great significance to study the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon storage for promoting regional sustainable development. Ecosystems on the Western Sichuan Plateau are highly variable, but its spatio-temporal differentiation and driving factors are not yet clear. In this study, on the basis of land use monitoring data, meteorological and demographic data interpreted from Landsat remote sensing image, and through GIS analysis tools, the carbon storage module of InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model was used to estimate carbon storage and geodetector was used to detect the driving factors of carbon storage spatial differentiation. The results show that: (1) The carbon storage increased to 1.2455 × 10¹⁰ t from 1.2438 × 10¹⁰ t in the past 20 years, the ecosystem developed in a healthy way overall. (2) Carbon storage show High-High and Low-Low aggregation characteristics, but the area decreased by 1481.81 km² and 311.11 km² respectively, and the spatial cluster effect gradually weakened. (3) HAI is the leading factor causing the spatio-temporal differentiation of regional carbon storage, followed by temperature and NDVI; the interaction between factors significantly enhances the spatial differentiation of carbon storage, indicating that the change of carbon storage is the result of the joint action of natural and socioeconomic factors. The results of the study provide some theoretical basis for the development of differentiated ecological regulation models and strategies, and help to promote high-quality regional development.

Impacts of Future Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Water-Related Ecosystem Services in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China

Sustaining ecosystem services in alpine regions is a pressing global challenge given future accelerating environmental changes. Understanding how future climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) drive ecosystem service will be important in this challenge. However, few studies have considered the combined effects of future climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services. We assessed water yield and soil retention services and their drivers in the Changbai mountains region (CBMR) from the 2020 to 2050s using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and factor control experiments. Water yield decreased by 2.80% and soil retention increased by 6.14% over the 30 years. Climate change decreased water yield and increased soil retention, while LUCC decreased both water yield and soil retention. The interactive effects between climate change and LUCC had relatively small inhibitory effects on water yield and large facilitation effects on soil retention. Changes in water yield were mainly attributed to climate change, while soil retention was largely influenced by interaction. Our study highlights the individual and interactive contributions of future climate change and land use to ecosystem service in the mountains region, which can provide important information for informed future land management and policy making for sustaining diverse ecosystem services.

Evaluating the role of spatial landscape literacy in public participation processes and opinions on environmental issues and ecosystem services

Little is known about how spatial literacy influences mapping and decision-making related to environmental management and ecosystem services. We assessed the role of spatial landscape literacy in participatory environmental management and ecosystem service assessments in peri-urban Bogota, Colombia. Spatial landscape literacy (SL) was evaluated by testing stakeholder's ability to locate specific landscapes and landmarks. We then assessed if opinions on environmental decisions and ecosystem services were significantly related to SL. We used an online instrument to capture 2,397 respondent's socioeconomic characteristics, SL, ecosystem service perceptions, and opinions concerning relevant environmental issues. We evaluated and measured respondents' self-perceived SL and ability to locate four landscapes in an integrated online map. Positional accuracy was calculated using a Spatial Landscape Literacy Index (SLI). We then tested for effects of socio-demographics on SLI, modeled the relationship between socio-demographics and SL, and tested the relationship between respondents' SL and their opinions on relevant environmental issues and ecosystem services. We found that about 75% of the respondents correctly located 2 of the 4 landscapes. The SLI model was also poorly predicted by socio-demographic variables. However, we found significant relationships between SLI and opinions concerning the environment. No relationship was found between respondents' levels of active participation in local governance and SLI. Overall, SL was little affected by education levels. Participatory processes using maps should ideally measure SL and not assume a priori that participants are spatially literate. Further research is needed to evaluate how spatial technologies and understanding stakeholder's values towards the environment can democratize participatory-based decision-making.

Spatial-Temporal Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Transformation Driven by Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China

Exploring the changes of ecosystem services value caused by land use transformation driven by urbanization is crucial for ensuring the safety of the regional ecological environment and for enhancing the value of ecosystem services. Based on the land use remote sensing data during the rapid urbanization development period of Hubei Province from 1995 to 2015, this study analyzed the characteristics of land use/land cover change and land use transformation. The spatial-temporal response characteristics and evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) to land use transformation driven by urbanization were measured by equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot spot analysis and gravity model. We found that: (1) Driven by urbanization, the most significant feature of land use transformation in Hubei Province was the expansion of the built-up land and the significant reduction of cropland and forest, among which 90% of the new built-up land was converted from cropland and forest. (2) This land use transformation became the main source of ESV losses. Especially, the sharp increase of the built-up land from 2010 to 2015, occupying cropland and forest, resulted in ESV losses of nearly USD 320 million. The service capacity of climate regulation, soil conservation, gas regulation and food production undertaken by cropland and forest decreased. (3) The ecosystem services value in the study area showed spatial distribution characteristics of high in the west and low in the middle and east regions. The center of gravity of ESV shifted from northwest to southeast. Due to the sharp increase of the built-up land from 2010 to 2015, the center of gravity shift rebounded. This study can help policymakers better understand the trade-offs between land use transformation and ecosystem services driven by urbanization.

The Grain for Green Program Intensifies Trade-Offs between Ecosystem Services in Midwestern Shanxi, China

Ecological engineering is a widely used strategy to address environmental degradation and enhance human well-being. A quantitative assessment of the impacts of ecological engineering on ecosystem services (ESs) is a prerequisite for designing inclusive and sustainable engineering programs. In order to strengthen national ecological security, the Chinese government has implemented the world’s largest ecological project since 1999, the Grain for Green Program (GFGP). We used a professional model to evaluate the key ESs in Lvliang City. Scenario analysis was used to quantify the contribution of the GFGP to changes in ESs and the impacts of trade-offs/synergy. We used spatial regression to identify the main drivers of ES trade-offs. We found that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the contribution rates of the GFGP to changes in carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil conservation (SC) were 140.92%, 155.59%, −454.48%, and 92.96%, respectively. GFGP compensated for the negative impacts of external environmental pressure on CS and HQ, and significantly improved CS, HQ, and SC, but at the expense of WY. (2) The GFGP promotes the synergistic development of CS, HQ, and SC, and also intensifies the trade-off relationships between WY and CS, WY and HQ, and WY and SC. (3) Land use change and urbanization are significantly positively correlated with the WY–CS, WY–HQ, and WY–SC trade-offs, while increases in NDVI helped alleviate these trade-offs. (4) Geographically weighted regression explained 90.8%, 94.2%, and 88.2% of the WY–CS, WY–HQ, and WY–SC trade-offs, respectively. We suggest that the ESs’ benefits from the GFGP can be maximized by controlling the intensity of land use change, optimizing the development of urbanization, and improving the effectiveness of afforestation. This general method of quantifying the impact of ecological engineering on ESs can act as a reference for future ecological restoration plans and decision-making in China and across the world.

Land use/land cover change and ecosystem services in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

Delivery of ecosystem services is strongly affected by changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) of an area. In this study, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in LULC of the rapidly changing Bagmati River Basin (BRB) of Nepal during 1988-2018 using Landsat satellite images. We also quantify carbon storage in different physiographic regions and LULC classes using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and assess economic valuation of carbon using the benefit transfer method. According to our analysis, there were increases in urban/built-up (247.5%), barren land (109.5%), shrub land (32.4%), and declines in forest cover (- 6.2%), cultivated land (- 4.1%), waterbodies (- 30.3%), sand (- 29.2%), and grass cover (- 10.6%) during the study period. As a result of these changes in LULC, carbon storage declined from 31.4 million tons year^-1 in 1988 (worth 157.0 million USD) to 30.8 million tons year^-1 (154.1 million USD) in 2018 with the total loss of 2.9 million USD. The largest decline in stored carbon was observed in Tarai and Dun valleys, from 6.8 to 6.5 million tons (- 1.4 million USD) followed by Churia, from 7.8 to 7.6 million tons (- 1.1 million USD). Increases in carbon storage were observed in urban/built-up and shrub land areas and declines in cultivated land, forest, barren land, waterbodies and grass land. The results of LULC change and estimated carbon stock in BRB provides a baseline for planners and policy makers to formulate appropriate plans to sustainably manage the region's land cover and to mitigate carbon loss.

Effects of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in southern hills and northern grasslands in China

We investigated the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in two distinct ecosystems: the northern grasslands and southern hills in China. The effects of minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and precipitation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales on ecosystem services and their components were studied through stepwise multiple regression analysis. The results showed that in the northern grasslands, an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) was mainly attributed to soil conservation, biodiversity, hydrological regulation, and aesthetic landscape. In the southern hills, an increase in total ESV in each region was mainly attributed to climate regulation, environmental purification, biodiversity, and aesthetic landscape. There were strong correlations between ESVs and fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In the northern grasslands, temperature was the main driving factor of the values from 11 categories of ecosystem services in Anxi, Tumuji, and Xilingol. However, in West Ordos, precipitation negatively affected the change in ESVs. In the southern hills, ESVs were governed by both precipitation and temperature in Huaying. Precipitation variables were an important factor affecting the ESVs in Cili. There was a stronger correlation between temperature and the majority of ESVs in Danjiangkou, Chongyi, and Lechang than precipitation. This paper provides a basis for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on different ecosystem services, and helps to enhance ESV under climate warming.

Relationship of Ecosystem Services in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on the Production Possibility Frontier

The supply and demand of ecosystem services are affected by land use. Only a few studies have conducted in-depth quantitative analyses. This study adopted the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research area. The CLUMondo model was adopted to infer the land-use pattern under protection, development, and natural scenarios in 2035. Moreover, the InVEST model was utilized to evaluate carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation under multiple land-use patterns. The production possibility frontier was drawn to visualize the trade-off relationship further. The trade-off intensity index was calculated to quantify the magnitude of the trade-off. (1) Under the development scenario, the accelerated expansion of urbanized land will occupy a large amount of arable and forest land, which should be planned and controlled. (2) The trade-off and synergistic relationships could be transformed under the different land-use scenarios. (3) The production possibility frontier curve for each ecosystem service trade-off and the optimal value of the trade-off configuration were plotted for the different scenarios. The trade-off intensity of ecosystem services was also calculated. This study combined ecosystem services with land-use regulations and revealed the link between ecosystem services and regional land-use pattern change. The aim is to provide a reference for the synergistic progress of the ecological economy in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.

Understating complex interactions in socio-ecological systems using system dynamics: A case in the tropical Andes

The high dependence of human communities on ecosystems' well-functioning has transformed and degraded ecosystems at alarming rates. Strategies for sustainability are an urgent need and requires the understanding of the complex interactions between human and ecological systems in the territories. For such understanding several modelling approaches have been proposed, but still face important challenges. This manuscript contributes by examining the dynamics of land use and land cover change in a basin in Colombian Andes using the socio-ecological systems approach. We develop a system dynamics model for a basin socio-ecological system with four interrelated subsystems and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services considered are hydrological regulation and erosion as an inverse proxy for the regulation ecosystem service of erosion control. In the model different natural and social processes of multiple time and spatial scales are considered. The model contributes to fill the following gaps identified by recent scientific literature: (i) Analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics of ES and SES remains a major challenge (ii) There are very few studies on the dynamics of mountain ecosystem services in the south hemisphere (iii) There is need of studies that focus on more than one ecosystem service to allow the analysis of the interaction between different ES, (iv) Models are often developed to only work with biophysical data excluding socioeconomic aspects that contribute to understanding complexity of SES, (iv) includes a human decision making process modelling that considers multiple criteria to decide land use. The modeling approach presented here constitutes an advance in the challenges associated with socio-ecological systems modeling.

Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Urban Ecosystem Service Value in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Urban ecosystem services provide a wide range of services to sustain life, social relation, health, etc., and address most of the challenges, including climate change and environmental pollution. While it is recognized that the urban ecosystem substantially contributes to human well-being in cities, there is less attention to consider the value of urban ecosystem service in urban planning and policymaking. This study analyzed the land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics of city of Dhaka over the past three decades (1990–2020) to evaluate the impact of LULC on ecosystem services value (ESV). The estimation of ESV in relation to LULC has been done using the globally used benefits transfer method (BTM). Findings of the study show that built-up area has increased by 188.35% from 1990 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate is about 6.28%The analysis of ESV shows that it has decreased by 59.55% (85 million USD) from 142.72 million USD in 1990 to 57.72 million USD in 2020 due to the development of the built-up area through conversion of agricultural land, waterbodies, and forest and vegetation land. This study also identified that waterbodies are the greatest contributor to ESV. The result on the elasticity of ESV in relation to LULC implies that about 1% transition in LULC would result in about 0.33% change in total ESV during the study period. We believe that the findings of this study would serve as a reference for the policy maker and urban planner to devise appropriate land use decision to ensure sustainable urban development of Dhaka.

Climate change versus land-use change-What affects the ecosystem services more in the forest-steppe ecotone?

The Ecosystem services (ESs), which play an important role in the balance of the natural ecosystem and social-economic development, are suffering from degradation caused by human activities and climate change. However, the manner in which the ESs respond to the land use/cover changes (LUCCs) and the climatic factors respectively remain elusive, especially in the forest-steppe ecotone, which is highly sensitive to climate change and anthroponotic activities. Based on the remote sensing data and in situ meteorological data, we comprehensively modeled and compared 4 key ESs changes caused by 3 LUCC types, land-use change fraction, and climate changes through two simple comparative experiments. Our results showed that: the Grain for the Green Project improved the mean soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and water yield but reduced the sand fixation. The cropland expansion had a positive influence on the water yield and sand fixation, but it induced a decline in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. The urbanization very likely increased the water yield and decreased soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and sand fixation. The unequal change fractions of the same land-use conversion may affect the ESs differently. The ESs changes have different responses to climate change in different landscapes due to the ecological process. The water yield could be well explained by the temperature, precipitation, radiation, and wind speed. Climate change had a stronger effect on the water yield and carbon sequestration than the land use/cover changes but sand fixation and soil conservation were more likely to be affected by LUCCs. The impact of three types of land-use changes and climate change on the ecosystem services should be considered when formulating land-use policies. This paper might aid the decision-makers in achieving ESs sustainable management and develop land-use strategies in the forest-steppe ecotone.

A Preliminary Study on the Impact of Landscape Pattern Changes Due to Urbanization: Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia

Urbanization is changing land use–land cover (LULC) transforming green spaces (GS) and bodies of water into built-up areas. LULC change is affecting ecosystem services (ES) in urban areas, such as by decreasing of the water retention capacity, the urban temperature regulation capacity and the carbon sequestration. The relation between LULC change and ES is still poorly examined and quantified using actual field data. In most ES studies, GS is perceived as lumped areas instead of distributed areas, implicitly ignoring landscape patterns (LP), such as connectivity and aggregation. This preliminary study is one of the first to provide quantitative evidence of the influence of landscape pattern changes on a selection of urban ecosystem services in a megacity as Jakarta, Indonesia. The impact of urbanization on the spatiotemporal changes of ES has been identified by considering connectivity and aggregation of GS. It reveals that LP changes have significantly decreased carbon sequestration, temperature regulation, and runoff regulation by 10.4, 12.4, and 11.5%, respectively. This indicates that the impact of GS on ES is not only determined by its area, but also by its LP. Further detailed studies will be needed to validate these results.

Using a hybrid demand-allocation algorithm to enable distributional analysis of land use change patterns

Future land use projections are needed to inform long-term planning and policy. However, most projections require downscaling into spatially explicit projection rasters for ecosystem service analyses. Empirical demand-allocation algorithms input coarse-level transition quotas and convert cells across the raster, based on a modeled probability surface. Such algorithms typically employ contagious and/or random allocation approaches. We present a hybrid seeding approach designed to generate a stochastic collection of spatial realizations for distributional analysis, by 1) randomly selecting a seed cell from a sample of n cells, then 2) converting patches of neighboring cells based on transition probability and distance to the seed. We generated a collection of realizations from 2001-2011 for the conterminous USA at 90m resolution based on varying the value of n, then computed forest area by fragmentation class and compared the results with observed 2011 forest area by fragmentation class. We found that realizations based on values of n ≤ 256 generally covered observed forest fragmentation at regional scales, for approximately 70% of assessed cases. We also demonstrate the potential of the seeding algorithm for distributional analysis by generating 20 trajectories of realizations from 2020-2070 from a single example scenario. Generating a library of such trajectories from across multiple scenarios will enable analysis of projected patterns and downstream ecosystem services, as well as their variation.

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

Integrating Ecosystem Services into Land-Use Modeling to Assess the Effects of Future Land-Use Strategies in Northern Ghana

In West Africa, where the majority of the population relies on natural resources and rain-fed agriculture, regionally adapted agricultural land-use planning is increasingly important to cope with growing demand for land-use products and intensifying climate variability. As an approach to identify effective future land-use strategies, this study applied spatially explicit modeling that addresses the spatial connectivity between the provision of ecosystem services and agricultural land-use systems. Considering that the status of ecosystem services varies with the perception of stakeholders, local knowledge, and characteristics of a case study area, two adjoining districts in northern Ghana were integrated into an assessment process of land-use strategies. Based on agricultural land-management options that were identified together with the local stakeholders, 75 future land-use strategies as combinations of multiple agricultural practices were elaborated. Potential impacts of the developed land-use strategies on ecosystem services and land-use patterns were assessed in a modeling platform that combines Geographic Information System (GIS) and Cellular Automaton (CA) modules. Modeled results were used to identify best land-use strategies that could deliver multiple ecosystem services most effectively. Then, local perception was applied to determine the feasibility of the best land-use strategies in practice. The results presented the different extent of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services delivered by future land-use strategies and their different feasibility depending on the district. Apart from the fact that findings were context-specific and scale-dependent, this study revealed that the integration of different local characteristics and local perceptions to spatially explicit ecosystem service assessment is beneficial for determining locally tailored recommendations for future agricultural land-use planning.

Reconstructing Long Term High Andean Forest Dynamics Using Historical Aerial Imagery: A Case Study in Colombia

High Andean forests are biodiversity hotspots that also play key roles in the provisioning of vital ecosystem services for neighboring cities. In past centuries, the hinterland of Andean fast-growing cities often experienced a dramatic decline in forested areas, but there are reports that forest cover has been recovering recently. We analyzed aerial imagery spanning the years 1940 to 2007 from nine administrative localities in the Eastern Andean Cordillera of Colombia in order to elucidate precise patterns of forest vegetation change. To this aim, we performed image object-based classification by means of texture analysis and image segmentation. We then derived connectivity metrics to investigate whether forest cover trajectories showed an increase or decrease in fragmentation and landscape degradation. We observed a forest cover recovery in all the examined localities, except one. In general, forest recovery was accompanied by an increase in core habitat areas. The time scale of the positive trends identified partially coincides with the creation of protected areas in the region, which very likely furthered the recovery of forest patches. This study unveils the long-term dynamics of peri-urban high Andean forest cover, providing valuable information on historical vegetation changes in a highly dynamic landscape.

Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios

The climate and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes evince the considerable impact on water balance components by altering the hydrological processes. So, the present work focuses on the evaluation of the combined impact of both the climate and LULC changes along with and without water storage structures on water balance components of the Krishna river basin, India under present and future scenarios with the help of Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) was used for the model calibration and validation, which were carried out at the Vijayawada gauge station. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values obtained during the calibration period were 0.63 and 0.61, respectively, whereas, in validation, these values were found to be 0.61 and 0.56, indicates satisfactory results. The results showed that the model simulations and performance were significantly influenced by the presence of water storage structures, whereas the LULC changes were effective at the sub-watershed level. Future LULC maps of 2025, 2055, and 2085 were simulated from the Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model, and they were used along with future climate projections to investigate its impact on water balance components. The climate model projects an increase of water balance components specifically, surface runoff, streamflow, and water yield, except for evapotranspiration in the future. Whereas, the future LULC changes may influence in offsetting the streamflow 20 to 30% reference to the observed flow. Thus, LULC changes were significantly influenced the model simulations; therefore, it is essential to consider the LULC changes along with climate scenarios in climate change studies. Overall, the surface runoff, water yield, and streamflow may increase by 50% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and they may double under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of the century.

Future Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Scenarios in the Ecological Conservation Area, Beijing, China

Ecosystem services (ES), defined as benefits provided by the ecosystem to society, are essential to human well-being. However, it remains unclear how they will be affected by land-use changes due to lack of knowledge and data gaps. Therefore, understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services to land-use change is critical for developing systematic and sound land planning. In this study, we aimed to explore the impacts of land-use change on the three ecosystem services, carbon storage (CS), flood regulation (FR), and soil conservation (SC), in the ecological conservation area of Beijing, China. We first projected land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, under three scenarios, i.e., Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Land Protection (ELP), and Rapid Economic Development (RED), by interactively integrating the Markov model (Quantitative simulation) with the GeoSOS-FLUS model (Spatial arrangement), and then quantified the three ecosystem services by using a spatially explicit InVEST model. The results showed that built-up land would have the most remarkable growth during 2015–2030 under the RED scenario (2.52% increase) at the expense of cultivated and water body, while forest land is predicted to increase by 152.38 km2 (1.36% increase) under the ELP scenario. The ELP scenario would have the highest amount of carbon storage, flood regulation, and soil conservation, due to the strict protection policy on ecological land. The RED scenario, in which a certain amount of cultivated land, water body, and forest land is converted to built-up land, promotes soil conservation but triggers greater loss of carbon storage and flood regulation capacity. The conversion between land-use types will affect trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, in which carbon storage would show significant positive correlation with soil conservation through the period of 2015 to 2030, under all scenarios. Together, our results provide a quantitative scientific report that policymakers and land managers can use to identify and prioritize the best practices to sustain ecosystem services, by balancing the trade-offs among services.

A Scientometrics Review on Land Ecosystem Service Research

Humans can derive the benefits from the ecosystem to satisfy human needs as well-being. Therefore, good ecosystem management is the intermediary between ecosystems and human well-being. The ecosystem services depend on the supply of nature, and also reflect the value orientation of human beings, as the basis for the realization of human survival and cultural development. Land ecosystem services are the core and hot topic of ecological research. Under the current severe depletion of land use, this research evaluates the sustainable governance on the natural resource shortage, serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation. Based on the Web of Science database, this paper analyzes the development characteristics and trends of global land ecosystem services research using the Bibliometrix software package. The results show that (1) the amount of literature on land ecosystem services research between 2000 and 2019 has generally increased significantly, and entered a stage of rapid development from 2015. (2) Developed countries are the main research force in the field of land ecosystem services, and the United States has the absolute leading position. Developing countries are dominated by China, Argentina, and Brazil. (3) The high-frequency keywords for land ecosystem services are land use change, land use, climate change, urbanization, carbon and water quality. This can be regarded as a research hotspot in the field of land ecosystem services to a certain extent. (4) Through cluster analysis on the big data, the research found the direction for the future land ecosystem services, mainly: (I) the restoration of degraded land and its impact on ecosystem services; (II) the environmental impact assessment of land use planning based on the ecosystem services value; (III) the tradeoff analysis of ecosystem services in sustainable land management; (IV) the impact of land cover change on ecosystem services; (V) through the historical analysis of citied papers, the research history and evolution path of land ecosystem services are explored. Based on all these arguments, a comprehensive study on the diverse facets of land ecosystem services and the practical application of land ecosystem services areas is proposed.

Understanding the Role of Optimized Land Use/Land Cover Components in Mitigating Summertime Intra-Surface Urban Heat Island Effect: A Study on Downtown Shanghai, China

In this study, 167 land parcels of downtown Shanghai, China, were used to investigate the relationship between parcel-level land use/land cover (LULC) components and associated summertime intra-surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, and further analyze the potential of mitigating summertime intra-SUHI effect through the optimized LULC components, by integrating a thermal sharpening method combining the Landsat-8 thermal band 10 data and high-resolution Quickbird image, statistical analysis, and nonlinear programming with constraints. The results show the remarkable variations in intra-surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, which was measured with the mean parcel-level blackbody sensible heat flux in kW per ha (Mean_pc_BBF). Through measuring the relative importance of each specific predictor in terms of their contributions to changing Mean_pc_BBF, the influence of parcel-level LULC components on excess surface flux of heat energy to the atmosphere was estimated using the partial least square regression (PLSR) model. Analysis of the present and optimized parcel-level LULC components and their contribution to the associated Mean_pc_BBF were comparable between land parcels with varying sizes. Furthermore, focusing on the gap between the present and ideally optimized area proportions of parcel-level LULC components towards minimizing the Mean_pc_BBF, the uncertainties arising from the datasets and methods, as well as the implications for sustainable land development and mitigating the UHI effect were discussed.

Identifying how future climate and land use/cover changes impact streamflow in Xinanjiang Basin, East China

Climate and land use/cover changes are the main factors altering hydrological regimes. To understand the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow within a specific catchment, it is essential to accurately quantify their changes given many possibilities. We propose an integrated framework to assess how individual and combined climate and land use/cover changes impact the streamflow of Xinanjiang Basin, in East China, in the future. Five bias-corrected and downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections are used to indicate the inter-model uncertainties under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Additionally, three land use/cover change scenarios representing a range of tradeoffs between ecological protection (EP) and urban development (UD) are projected by Cellular Automata - Markov (CA-Markov). The streamflow in 2021-2050 is then assessed using the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with 15 scenarios and 75 possibilities. Finally, the uncertainty and attribution of streamflow changes to climate and land use/cover changes at monthly and annual scale are analyzed. Results show that while both land use/cover change alone and combined changes project an increase in streamflow, there is a disagreement on the direction of streamflow change under climate change alone. Future streamflow may undergo a more blurred boundary between the flood and non-flood seasons, potentially easing the operation stress of Xinanjiang Reservoir for water supply or hydropower generation. We find that the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on monthly mean streamflow are sensitive to the impermeable area (IA). The impacts of climate change are stronger than those induced by land use/cover change under EP (i.e., lower IA); and land use/cover change has a greater impact in case of UD (i.e., higher IA). However, changes in annual mean streamflow are mainly driven by land use/cover change, and climate change may decrease the influence attributed to land use/cover change.