Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries

Unleashing the power of intelligence: revolutionizing malaria outbreak preparedness with an advanced warning system in Benin, West Africa

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a significant vector-borne disease that exhibits high sensitivity to climatic variations within the West African region. In Benin, the effective prevention and mitigation of malaria pose considerable challenges, primarily due to the prevailing conditions of poverty and environmental adversities. This study endeavours to devise an advanced system for early detection and warning of malaria outbreaks in the northern part of Benin, employing monthly time series data pertaining to climatic variables.

METHODS

Monthly climate data were sourced from Meteorological Agency of Benin (METEO-Benin), alongside malaria incidence data procured from the database of the Benin Ministry of Health, that covered the timeframe of 2009-2021. To ascertain the influence of climatic variables on malaria incidence, principal component analysis was applied. Subsequently, an intelligent model for forecasting malaria outbreaks was developed using support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. The developed model for malaria outbreaks was then employed to establish an intelligent system for warning and forecasting malaria incidence on a monthly basis, utilising the Meteostat platform, an online weather data service provider, in conjunction with the Streamlit framework. This application exhibits responsiveness and compatibility across all web browsers.

RESULTS

Relative humidity and maximal temperature significantly influence malaria incidence in the northern region of Benin. SVM regression algorithm forecasts 80% prediction rate for malaria incidence. Consequently, the intelligent malaria outbreak warning system was successfully devised, enabling the automatic and manual prediction of monthly malaria incidence rates within the districts of northern Benin.

CONCLUSIONS

This system serves as a valuable tool for stakeholders and policymakers, facilitating proactive measures to curtail malaria transmission in Benin.

Assessing nexus of spatio-temporal livability and various contemporary factors: A case of Central India from 2001 to 2021

Climate change exerts a substantial impact on urban livability at a global scale, resulting in an escalation in the frequency of floods, heat waves, and droughts that pose significant challenges to the quality of life in different regions. The current study assesses the livability trends of 166 districts in Central India from 2001 to 2021 by employing a District Livability Index (DLI) and geospatial analysis. It is noted that economic factors, particularly the GSDP and the extent of industrial progress, have a pivotal role in influencing enhancements in livability. The spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals a clustering of districts with similar livability levels, underscoring the regional disparities that prevail. Moreover, the investigation delves into the impacts of climate change on urban livability, concentrating specifically on floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold waves. It is underscored that floods and heatwaves emerge as notable threats affecting the livability of urban areas, with heightened vulnerability evident in the southern regions. In contrast, cold waves seem to have a marginal impact on livability. In summary, the findings underscore the dynamic nature of livability, shaped by economic conditions and climate variations. This research offers valuable insights into the intricate interplay among economic advancement, climate change, and urban livability, thereby presenting a comprehensive framework for future research efforts and policy formulation. The assessment of how climate change influences livability assists in pinpointing vulnerabilities and devising adaptation strategies to promote more resilient urban planning and advancement.

Assessment of livelihood vulnerability to climate change among tribal communities in Chhindwara and Dhar district, Central India

Climate change poses significant challenges to marginalised communities, particularly in regions with highly vulnerable populations like rural and tribal communities. This study aims to assess the livelihood vulnerability of tribal households to climate change impacts in the Chhindwara and Dhar districts in Central India, identifying key determinants and geographical variations in vulnerability. Primary data collection involved a multistage sampling procedure where a household survey was conducted across both districts, yielding a sample size of 535 respondents. The climatic data was collected from the India Meteorological department from 1954 to 2023. This study employs a mixed method, including innovative trend analysis for shifts in climatic patterns, standardised precipitation index-1 (SPI-1) for evaluating wet and dry conditions, LVI-IPCC framework applied using survey data to assess vulnerability, and multiple linear regression (MLR) model to determine the determinants of vulnerability. The results indicate significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in both regions, indicating increased vulnerability among tribal communities. SPI-1 analysis highlights the shift in precipitation patterns, with implications for agriculture and water availability. The LVI-IPCC results reveal a moderate level of vulnerability among surveyed households, with Dhar exhibiting higher vulnerability than Chhindwara. Furthermore, LVI-IPCC results were validated using other vulnerability assessment approaches. The MLR analysis highlights the significant influence of key determinants, such as primary income source, extreme weather events, access to safe drinking water, and livelihood strategies, on vulnerability, emphasising the importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities and enhancing adaptive capacity. Integrating primary and secondary data enables an inclusive investigation of vulnerability determinants and geographical variations within the study area. It offers evidence-based policy recommendations for augmenting resilience and encouraging sustainable development among tribal communities facing climate change challenges.

Investigating the dynamics of climate finance disbursements: A panel data approach from 2003 to 2022

This study investigates the intricate dynamics of international multilateral climate finance disbursements from 2003 to 2022 via an extensive dataset from the Climate Funds Update (CFU). By employing panel data econometric models, including pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE), and random effects (RE) models, the study elucidates the impact of grants and approved funds on disbursement levels across different income groups. The analysis reveals that while grants do not significantly influence disbursements, the approval of funds plays a critical role in enhancing disbursement efficiency. The random effects model, validated through the Hausman test, emerges as the optimal model for this context. The findings underscore the importance of streamlined approval processes in ensuring effective climate finance disbursements and highlight the need for further investigation into the non-significance of grants. The forecasting results indicate a positive trend in disbursements from 2023 to 2027, with potential fluctuations driven by external factors. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize climate finance mechanisms and improve fund utilization for sustainable development.

How should climate actions be planned? Model lessons from published action plans

To effectively protect against the increasingly pervasive effects of climate change, countries and cities around the world are tasked with formulating and implementing climate actions that effectively respond to the challenges ahead. However, choosing the optimal climate actions is complex, since it is necessary to consider many external impacts as early on as the planning phase. Our novel methodology uncovers and integrates into first-of-its-kind decision support framework the identified climate actions of 443 European cities (from 32 countries) and the city structure-related features that influence the basic success of strategy creation into a first-of-its-kind decision support framework. Depending on their budget, population density, development and energy consumption portfolio, the results highlight that the analyzed European cities need to adopt a different way of thinking. The research results lay the foundation for the decision support of evidence-based climate action planning and contribute towards strengthening the role of cities worldwide in the fight against climate change in the future.

Human adaptation to heat in the context of climate change: A conceptual framework

Climate change is causing serious damage to natural and social systems, as well as having an impact on human health. Among the direct effects of climate change is the rise in global surface temperatures and the increase in the frequency, duration, intensity and severity of heat waves. In addition, understanding of the adaptation process of the exposed population remains limited, posing a challenge in accurately estimating heat-related morbidity and mortality. In this context, this study seeks to establish a conceptual framework that would make it easier to understand and organise knowledge about human adaptation to heat and the factors that may influence this process. An inductive approach based on grounded theory was used, through the analysis of case studies connecting concepts. The proposed conceptual framework is made up of five components (climate change, vulnerability, health risks of heat, axes of inequality and health outcomes), three heat-adaptation domains (physiological, cultural and political), two levels (individual and social), and the pre-existing before a heat event. The application of this conceptual framework facilitates the assistance of decision-makers in planning and implementing effective adaptation measures. Recognizing the importance of addressing heat adaptation as a health problem that calls for political solutions and social changes. Accordingly, this requires a multidisciplinary approach that would foster the participation and collaboration of multiple actors for the purpose of proposing effective measures to address the health impact of the rise in temperature.

Expanding carbon neutrality strategies: Incorporating out-of-boundary emissions in city-level frameworks

Cities are increasingly vital in global carbon mitigation efforts, yet few have specifically tailored carbon neutrality pathways. Furthermore, out-of-boundary indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, aside from those related to electricity and heat imports, are often overlooked in existing pathways, despite their significance in comprehensive carbon mitigation strategies. Addressing this gap, here we introduce an integrated analysis framework focusing on both production and consumption-related GHG emissions. Applied to Wuyishan, a service-oriented city in Southern China, this framework provides a holistic view of a city's carbon neutrality pathway, from a full-scope GHG emission perspective. The findings reveal the equal importance of carbon reduction within and outside the city's boundaries, with out-of-boundary emissions accounting for 42% of Wuyishan's present total GHG emissions. This insight highlights the necessity of including these external factors in GHG accounting and mitigation strategy development. This framework serves as a practical tool for cities, particularly in developing countries, to craft effective carbon neutrality roadmaps that encompass the full spectrum of GHG emissions.

Climate hazards in Latin American cities: Understanding the role of the social and built environments and barriers to adaptation action

Climate hazards threaten the health and wellbeing of people living in urban areas. This study characterized reported climate hazards, adaptation action, and barriers to adaptation in 124 Latin American cities, and associations of climate hazards with urban social and built environment characteristics. We examined cities that responded to a global environmental disclosure system and that were included in the Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) Project database. The cities studied reported a median of three climate hazards. The most reported hazards were storms (61%) water scarcity (57%) extreme temperature (52%) and wildfires (51%). Thirty-eight percent of cities reported four or more distinct types of hazards. City size, density, GDP, and greenness were related to hazard reports, and although most cities reported taking actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change, 23% reported no actions at all. The most frequently reported actions were hazard mapping and modeling (47%) and increasing vegetation or greenspace coverage (45%). Other actions, such as air quality initiatives and urban planning, were much less common (8% and 3%, respectively). In terms of challenges in adapting to climate change, 35% of cities reported no challenges. The most frequently reported challenges were urban environment and development (43%) and living conditions (35%). Access to data, migration, public health, and safety/security were rarely reported as challenges. Our results suggest that climate hazards are recognized, but that adaptation responses are limited and that many important challenges to response action are not fully recognized. This study contributes to understanding of local priorities, ongoing actions, and required support for urban climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation responses. Findings suggest the need for future research documenting local perceptions of climate hazards and comparison with documented climate hazards.

Habitat sensitivity in the West African coastal area: inferences and implications for regional adaptations to climate change and ocean acidification

This study focuses on assessing coastal vulnerability and habitat sensitivity along the West African coast by delineating hotspots based on surface temperature, pH, chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, and carbonate concentrations between 2018 and 2023 depending on data availability. Initial exploration of these variables revealed two distinct focal points i.e., the Togo-Nigerian coastal stretch and the stretch from Sierra Leone to Mauritania. Lower pH trends (acidification) in surface waters were observed off the West African coast, particularly in areas around the south-south Niger Delta in Nigeria and the coastal regions of Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Sea surface temperature analysis revealed highest temperatures (27-30°C) within Nigeria to Guinea coastal stretch, intermediate temperatures (24-27°C) within the Guinea Bissau and Senegal coastal stretch, and the lowest temperatures off the coast of Mauritania. Furthermore, correlation analysis between sea surface temperature and calcite concentration in the Mauritania-Senegal hotspot, as well as between overland runoff and particulate organic carbon in the Togo-Nigeria hotspot, revealed strong positive associations (r>0.60) and considerable predictive variability (R2 ≈ 0.40). From the habitat sensitivity analysis, certain regions, including Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, exhibited high sensitivity due to environmental challenges and strong human dependence on coastal resources. Conversely, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Togo displayed lower sensitivity, influenced by geographical-related factors (e.g. coastal layout, topography, etc.) and current levels of economic development (relatively lower industrialization levels). Regional pH variations in West African coastal waters have profound implications for ecosystems, fisheries, and communities. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative regional policies to safeguard shared marine resources. These findings underscore the link between ecosystem health, socioeconomics, and the need for integrated coastal management and ongoing research to support effective conservation.

Flood vulnerability assessment of Thailand's flood-prone Pathum Thani province and vulnerability mitigation strategies

This research assesses the flood vulnerability of Thailand's flood-prone province of Pathum Thani using a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework. The assessment framework incorporates three key components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, consisting of 10, 12 and 11 flood vulnerability indicators, respectively. The flood vulnerability components and the flood vulnerability indicators are statistically validated by confirmatory factor analysis to determine the factor loadings and reliability of the components and indicators. The flood vulnerability questionnaire corresponding to the flood vulnerability indicators is subsequently developed and applied to the flood-prone districts of the province. The results show that proximity to rivers (with an indicator score of 0.685), household debt levels (0.612), land use patterns (0.617), and the proportion of low-income households (0.621) significantly contribute to the flood exposure of the province (with an exposure index score of 0.531). Larger household size (with an indicator score of 0.901), disruptions in public utility services (0.747), and workplace absenteeism due to flooding (0.741) contribute to the province's higher flood sensitivity (with a sensitivity index score of 0.633). Drainage capacity of natural and man-made waterways (0.571) contributes to low to moderate levels of flood adaptive capacity. The flood vulnerability of seven administrative districts of Pathum Thani, as measured by the flood vulnerability index scores (0.454-0.608), range from moderate to high. Local authorities need to invest in flood warning and response systems, prioritize infrastructure development and encourage community engagement to reduce the flood vulnerability.

Temperature extremes and infectious diarrhea in China: attributable risks and effect modification of urban characteristics

Studies about the role of urban characteristics in modifying the health effect of temperature extremes are still unclear. This study is aimed at quantifying the morbidity risk of infectious diarrhea attributable to temperature extremes and the modified effect of a range of city-specific indicators. Distributed lag non-linear model and multivariate meta-regression were applied to estimate fractions of infectious diarrhea morbidity attributable to temperature extremes and to explore the effect modification of city-level characteristics. Extreme heat- and extreme cold-related infectious diarrhea amounted to 0.99% (95% CI: 0.57-1.29) and 1.05% (95% CI: 0.64-1.24) of the total cases, respectively. The attributable fraction of temperature extremes on infectious diarrhea varied between southern and northern China. Several city characteristics modified the association of extreme cold with infectious diarrhea, with a higher morbidity impact related to increased water consumption per capita and decreased latitude. Regions with higher levels of latitude or GDP per capita appeared to be more sensitive to extreme hot. In conclusion, exposure to temperature extremes was associated with increased risks of infectious diarrhea and the effect can be modified by urban characteristics. This finding can inform public health interventions to decrease the adverse effects of temperature extremes on infectious diarrhea.

Interactions of urbanisation, climate variability, and infectious disease dynamics: insights from the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu

Climate change and shifts in land use/land cover (LULC) are critical factors affecting the environmental, societal, and health landscapes, notably influencing the spread of infectious diseases. This study delves into the intricate relationships between climate change, LULC alterations, and the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne diseases in Coimbatore district, Tamil Nadu, India, between 1985 and 2015. The research utilised Landsat-4, Landsat-5, and Landsat-8 data to generate LULC maps, applying the maximum likelihood algorithm to highlight significant transitions over the years. This study revealed that built-up areas have increased by 67%, primarily at the expense of agricultural land, which was reduced by 51%. Temperature and rainfall data were obtained from APHRODITE Water Resources, and with a statistical analysis of the time series data revealed an annual average temperature increase of 1.8 °C and a minor but statistically significant rainfall increase during the study period. Disease data was obtained from multiple national health programmes, revealing an increasing trend in dengue and diarrhoeal diseases over the study period. In particular, dengue cases surged, correlating strongly with the increase in built-up areas and temperature. This research is instrumental for policy decisions in public health, urban planning, and climate change mitigation. Amidst limited research on the interconnections among infectious diseases, climate change, and LULC changes in India, our study serves as a significant precursor for future management strategies in Coimbatore and analogous regions.

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

The need for a compound risk governance system and management practice is argued in this paper. We find that, historically, risk management strategies have been developed for single hazards and are often subject to path dependency. It is thus difficult to adapt them to a situation that has compound risks. The lack of attention to compound risks in current risk management practices often leads to potential side effects-positive or negative-on other risks and can also result in related management strategies being overlooked. This can ultimately cause barriers to larger transformational adaptation efforts and lead to the intensification of existing societal inequalities or to the creation of new ones. To alert policy- and decision-makers to the need to move toward compound-risk management strategies, we argue that risk management must explicitly highlight various elements of path dependencies, the positive and negative side effects of single-hazard risk management, the appearance of new social inequalities, and the intensification of existing ones.

Monsoon flood risks in urban areas of Pakistan: A way forward for risk reduction and adaptation planning

Climate change poses a significant threat to sustainable urban development. Heavy rainfall has led to severe urban flooding, disrupting human life and causing widespread damage. This study aims to examine the impacts, preparedness, and adaptation strategies related to monsoon flooding in Lahore, Pakistan's second-most populous metropolitan area. Using Yamane's sampling method, a total of 370 samples were surveyed and analyzed using descriptive analysis and chi-square tests. The results indicate that houses and parks were the most commonly damaged properties, with common impacts including roof collapse, house fires, seepage, and wall dampness. These impacts not only caused physical damage but also disrupted basic amenities and damaged roads, resulting in significant socioeconomic costs. Despite these challenges, residents adopted a variety of adaptation strategies such as the use of temporary tarps, moving household appliances to upper floors, and shifting to tiled floors and wall paneling to mitigate damage. However, the study highlights the need for further measures to reduce flood risks and promote adaptation planning in order to effectively address the ongoing challenges posed by climate change and urban flooding.

An empirical investigation of the effects of poverty and urbanization on environmental degradation: the case of sub-Saharan Africa

This study empirically investigates the effects of poverty and urbanization on environmental degradation for a sample of 43 sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies from 1995 to 2018. The major contribution of the study lies in examining the existence of non-linear effects of poverty and urbanization on environmental degradation. We considered a set of institutional and demographic factors to explain the dynamics among poverty, urbanization, and environmental degradation. Findings suggest that an increase in the poverty gap significantly contributes towards intensifying environmental degradation in SSA countries. Results also show the existence of a non-linear relationship between poverty and environmental degradation. The findings purpose several crucial policy recommendations which necessitate the participation of different stakeholders such as government, institutions, researchers, non-profit organizations and citizens for the effective implementations of environment-friendly policies. A battery of robustness tests confirms the validity of the main findings of the study.

Spatio-temporal variations, spatial spillover, and driving factors of carbon emission efficiency in RCEP members under the background of carbon neutrality

Improving carbon emission efficiency (CEE) has emerged as a critical way for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) members to promote carbon reduction in the context of climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality. The super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, which considers non-desired outputs, is adopted to comprehensively assess the current state and trend of CEE in 15 RCEP countries from a spatio-temporal dynamic perspective, and the global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index is coupled to quantify the spatial and temporal differences and dynamic changes. Following that, taking into account the spatial characteristics of CEE, the extended STIRPAT model and the spatial Durbin model are combined to further investigate the primary influencing factors of CEE. It is found that (1) the CEE of RCEP members is generally poor and unevenly distributed in temporal and spatial dimensions, with significant room for improvement and an overall positive spatial autocorrelation; (2) CEE varies considerably among RCEP members, with developed countries far outstripping developing countries in terms of both the current status and trend of CEE; (3) on a dynamic level, the GML index exhibits W-shaped fluctuations, with technological progress acting as the dominant force; and (4) in terms of spillover effects, affluence and economic agglomeration inhibit CEE enhancement, whereas technology level and investment capacity facilitate it. The findings will be useful in developing carbon-neutral plans for various countries as well as coordinated sustainable development for RCEP regions.

Mean Temperature and Drought Projections in Central Africa: A Population-Based Study of Food Insecurity, Childhood Malnutrition and Mortality, and Infectious Disease

The Central African Region is an agricultural and fishing-based economy, with 40% of the population living in rural communities. The negative impacts of climate change have caused economic/health-related adverse impacts and food insecurity. This original article aims to research four key themes: (i) acute food insecurity (AFI); (ii) childhood malnutrition and mortality; (iii) infectious disease burden; and (iv) drought and mean temperature projections throughout the twenty-first century. Food insecurity was mapped in Central Africa based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for AFI. The global hunger index (GHI) was presented along with the proportion of children with undernourishment, stunting, wasting, and mortality. Data for infectious disease burden was computed by assessing the adjusted rate of change (AROC) of mortality due to diarrhea among children and the burden of death rates due to pneumonia across all age groups. Finally, the mean drought index was computed through the year 2100. This population-based study identifies high levels of hunger across a majority of the countries, with the mean drought index suggesting extreme ends of wet and dry days and an overall rise of 1-3 °C. This study is a source of evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and the population residing in Central Africa.

Can China's ecological civilization strike a balance between economic benefits and green efficiency? A preliminary province-based quasi-natural experiment

To encourage the building of a development route for ecological civilization construction which commensurates with China's unique national conditions, early demonstration and pilot ecological civilization zones should be built. This study aims to investigate the effects of ecological civilization construction policies on regional total factor productivity, green total factor productivity, and the methods of action by using panel data from 30 provinces in Mainland China from 2005 to 2020. Our findings indicate that the pilot eco-civilization policies have a more significant effect on the promotion of green total factor production, while the effect on total factor productivity is average. Furthermore, the main purpose of the ecological civilization construction pilot is to improve the level of green innovation, optimise the industrial structure and promote the allocation of factors to achieve a win-win situation for regional economic development and green benefits. Moreover, under different levels of economic growth, the pilot eco-civilization policies have a more significant effect on the promotion of green total factor at various stages of economic growth and industrialization. There are also clear discrepancies in how well ecological civilization construction programmes are implemented. Thus, in order to support high-quality regional economic development, it is crucial to continue to advance and promote the pilot eco-civilization initiatives.

Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Concerns in Urban Areas: A Systematic Review of the Impact of IPCC Assessment Reports

Urban areas continue to be the center of action for many countries due to their contribution to economic development. Many urban areas, through the urbanization process, have become vulnerable to climate risk, thereby making risk mitigation and adaptation essential components in urban planning. The study assessed the impacts of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) on academic research on risk mitigation and adaptation concerns in urban areas. The study systematically reviewed literature through searches of the Web of Science and Scopus databases; 852 papers were retrieved and 370 were deemed eligible. The results showed that the East Asia and Pacific, and Europe and Central Asia regions were most interested in IPCC ARs, while Sub-Saharan Africa showed little interest. Several urban concerns, including socio-economic, air quality, extreme temperature, sea level rise/flooding, health, and water supply/drought, were identified. Additionally, studies on negative health outcomes due to extreme temperatures and air pollution did not appear in the first four IPCC ARs. However, significant studies appeared after the launch of the AR5. Here, we must state that climate-related problems of urbanization were known and discussed in scientific papers well before the formation of the IPCC. For instance, the works of Clarke on urban structure and heat mortality and Oke on climatic impacts of urbanization. Though the IPCC ARs show impact, their emphasis on combined mitigation and adaptation policies is limited. This study advocates more combined risk mitigation and adaptation policies in urban areas for increased resilience to climate risk.

Agro-pastoralists' perception of climate change and adaptation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Global climate change affects all aspects of human society, especially agricultural and animal husbandry production. Northwest China has been detrimentally affected by the climatic variations due to its high exposure to extreme climatic events. A number of studies have reported agro-pastoralists’ perceptions and adaptation responses to climate change, but the current knowledge of agro-pastoralists’ perceptions of climate change in China are insufficient. To fill this research gap, this study aims to investigate the perception level of agro-pastoralists in Northwest China on climate change and related factors. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire based on household surveys of 554 study participants in four counties in Gansu Province, China. Raw data were collected using stratified random sampling. A probit model was used to analyze the respondents' understanding of climate change and its related socio-economic and demographic variables. Our results show that the majority of respondents were aware (70%) of the changes in temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic and demographic variables such as gender, farming experience, education level, cultivated land size, agricultural income, livestock, village cadre experience, access to weather information of agro-pastoralists are pertinently related to agro-pastoralists’ awareness of climate change. Farming experience, education level, household size, grassland size, agricultural income, association membership, village cadre experience has a high impact on agro-pastoralists' adaptation to climate change. The results of this study will help guide government agencies and decision makers, and help arid and semi-arid areas to build sustainable adaptation measures under the framework of climate change. The study recommends institutions targeting households’ livelihood improvement and making decisions concerning climate change adaptation need to focus on mass media and information technology, improving locally adapted extension services, improved irrigation, expand loan channels.

Determinant Indicators for Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Agricultural Producers to Climate Change

Assessing adaptive capacity to climate change is a complex task since it is a multidimensional component. There has been considerable discrepancy between the dimensions or elements that compose it. This study aimed to analyze the relevant dimensions and indicators that allow estimation of the adaptive capacity to climate change and to propose a set of indicators that will enable their application to assessment at the level of agricultural producers. A systematic review of scientific literature on evaluating or measuring adaptive capacity to climate change was carried out. Subsequently, the indicators were analyzed and selected through a coincidence analysis and were calibrated through a multicriteria evaluation with relevant actors in the southern Mexico, state of Chiapas. In total, 329 indicators were identified and analyzed. As a result, 19 indicators were selected and then grouped into six dimensions: economic resources, human resources, infrastructure for production and marketing, institutionality, social capital, and natural resources. These represent the 14 specific dimensions with the greatest potential to contribute to the estimation of adaptive capacity to climate change. The dimensions and indicators can be applied to assess the adaptive capacity of farmers in Mexico at a national or regional scale and specifically by producer types.

Empowering the Voiceless: Securing the Participation of Marginalised Groups in Climate Change Governance in South Africa

For many of the world’s poor people, adaptation to climate change is not a choice but a reality. Existing evidence suggests that the poor, particularly those in the developing world, are the most vulnerable to any changes in climate variability and change. Using research methods inspired by the tradition of participatory research, we explore and discuss community perceptions on climate change adaptation governance in South Africa. We examine the myriad ways in which climate change adaptation policies and strategies are developed, and we systematically discuss the factors which either facilitate or hamper the involvement of all stakeholders in the development of these intervention measures. Our findings indicate that women seem to be the group of people who are mostly unaware of community initiatives, policies, and strategies for the adaptation to climate change. Thus, it is argued that, although South Africa has developed good climate change initiatives, policies, and strategies, the implementation of these policies seems to present difficulties, as those for whom they have been developed do not seem to have any knowledge of their effectiveness in helping them build resilience against extreme weather events. This study recommends that, in order to achieve successful public participation in climate change adaptation policy development, there must be an all-inclusive system which incorporates all stakeholders, including vulnerable groups.

A Systematic Study Site Selection Protocol to Determine Environmental Flows in the Headwater Catchments of the Vhembe Biosphere Reserve

Developing nations will be worst hit by the impacts of climate change because limited resources hinder the spatial reach of climate studies, effort, and subsequent implementation to help with the improvement of livelihoods. Therefore, finding the best-case study is an essential undertaking in environmental assessments. This study explains one systematic approach to selecting a study site for an environmental assessment project. A desktop review of relevant literature, a simple factor scoring assessment process, reliance on expert opinion, and a field survey for ground-truthing were conducted. The desktop review showed the most critical factors to site selection. The scoring of these factors selected those that were crucial for the study. Experts validated the results and suggested the best study site among the ones identified. While the design is simplified, the proposed approach selects the most appropriate study site for environmental assessments.

Urban health challenges: Lessons from COVID-19 responses

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced a re-examination of our societies and in particular urban health. We argue that urban health needs to address three inter-related challenge areas - the unequal impacts of climate change, changing patterns of urbanization, and the changing role of the local government - across multiple spatial scales: from individual, households to neighbourhoods, cities, and urban hinterlands. Urban health calls for nimble institutions to provide a range of responses while adapting to crisis situations, and which operate beyond any one spatial scale. We illustrate our argument by drawing on South and Southeast Asian examples where responses to the pandemic have confronted these challenges across scales. A multiscalar definition of urban health offers an opportunity to challenge dominant approaches to urban health in research, policy, and practice.

Understanding responses to climate-related water scarcity in Africa

Water scarcity is a global challenge, yet existing responses are failing to cope with current shocks and stressors, including those attributable to climate change. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impacts of water scarcity threaten livelihoods and wellbeing across the continent and are driving a broad range of adaptive responses. This paper describes trends of water scarcity for Africa and outlines climate impacts on key water-related sectors on food systems, cities, livelihoods and wellbeing, conflict and security, economies, and ecosystems. It then uses systematic review methods, including the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, to analyse 240 articles and identify adaptation characteristics of planned and autonomous responses to water scarcity across Africa. The most common impact drivers responded to are drought and participation variability. The most frequently identified actors responding to water scarcity include individuals or households (32%), local government (15%) and national government (15%), while the most common types of response are behavioural and cultural (30%), technological and infrastructural (27%), ecosystem-based (25%) and institutional (18%). Most planned responses target low-income communities (31%), women (20%), and indigenous communities (13%), but very few studies target migrants, ethnic minorities or those living with disabilities. There is a lack of coordination of planned adaptation at scale across all relevant sectors and regions, and lack of legal and institutional frameworks for their operation. Most responses to water scarcity are coping and autonomous responses that showed only minor adjustments to business-as-usual water practices, suggesting limited adaptation depth. Maladaptation is associated with one or more dimension of responses in almost 20% of articles. Coordinating institutional responses, carefully planned technologies, planning for projected climate risks including extension of climate services and increased climate change literacy, and integrating indigenous knowledge will help to address identified challenges of water scarcity towards more adaptive responses across Africa.

Are green roofs the path to clean air and low carbon cities?

Green roofs, as part of urban green structures, have been pointed out as the solution to pursuit the goal of healthy cities. This study aims to investigate the direct, focused on meteorological changes, and indirect, related to both meteorological and emissions changes, impacts of green roofs on air quality (PM10, NO₂ and O₃). For that, the numerical modelling system composed by the WRF-SLUCM-CHIMERE models was applied to a 1-year period (2017), having as case study the Porto urban area. The EnergyPlus model was also applied to estimate the green roofs impacts on the building's energy needs and related impacts on air quality and atmospheric emissions. The analysis of the direct impacts showed that green roofs promote a temperature increase during the autumn and winter seasons and a temperature decrease during the spring and summer seasons. Both negative - concentrations increase - and positive - concentrations decrease - impacts were obtained for the primary, PM10 and NO₂, and secondary, O₃, air pollutants, respectively, due to changes in the dynamical structure of the urban boundary layer. The indirect effects of green roofs showed their potential to enhance the buildings energy efficiency, reducing the cooling and heating needs. These changes in energy consumption promoted an overall decrease of the environmental and economic indicators. Regarding air quality, the impact was negligible. The obtained results highlight the need for a multipurpose evaluation of the impacts of green roofs, with the different effects having to be traded off against each other to better support the decision-making process.

Urban areas, human health and technosols for the green deal

Authors aim to carry out a bibliographic review as an initial approach to state of the art related to the quality of urban soils, as well as its possible link with human health. This concern arises from the need to highlight the consequences that soil could face, derived from the growth and aging of the population, as well as its predicted preference for urban settlement. Urban development may pose a challenge to the health of urban soils, due to degradative processes that it entails, such as land take, sealing, contamination or compaction. A healthy soil is the one which maintains the capacity to support ecosystem services, so it can provide numerous benefits to human health and well-being (carbon sequestration, protection against flooding, retention and immobilization of pollutants and a growth media for vegetation and food production). This article addresses threats facing urban soils, the strategies put forward by the European Union to deal with them, as well as the issues that require further attention. Greening cities could be a consensual solution, so authors analyze whether soils of cities are ready for that challenge and what resources need to maintain soil ecosystem functions. This review proposes to use made by waste Technosols for a sustainable green city. Although the use of Technosols as a type of soil is very recent, the interest of the scientific community in this field continues to grow.

Conceptual Frameworks for Assessing Climate Change Effects on Urban Areas: A Scoping Review

Urban areas are amongst the most adversely affected regions by current and future climate change effects. One issue when it comes to measuring, for example, impacts, vulnerabilities, and resilience in preparation of adaptation action is the abundance of conceptual frameworks and associated definitions. Frequently, those definitions contradict each other and shift over time. Prominently, in the transition from the IPCC AR (International Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report) 4 to the IPCC AR 5, a number of conceptual understandings have changed. By integrating common concepts, the literature review presented intends to thoroughly investigate frameworks applied to assess climate change effects on urban areas, creating an evidence base for research and politically relevant adaptation. Thereby, questions concerning the temporal development of publication activity, the geographical scopes of studies and authors, and the dominant concepts as applied in the studies are addressed. A total of 50 publications is identified following screening titles, abstracts, and full texts successively based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Major findings derived from our literature corpus include a recently rising trend in the number of publications, a focus on Chinese cities, an imbalance in favor of authors from Europe and North America, a dominance of the concept of vulnerability, and a strong influence of the IPCC publications. However, confusion regarding various understandings remains. Future research should focus on mainstreaming and unifying conceptual frameworks and definitions as well as on conducting comparative studies.

Transformation towards Risk-Sensitive Urban Development: A Systematic Review of the Issues and Challenges

Risk-sensitive urban development is an innovative planning approach that can transform the way cities are built in order to face the uncertainties that arise from climate-induced disaster risks. However, the potential to initiate such a transformative approach has not materialized because of the many underlying issues that need to be understood properly. Therefore, this study conducted a systematic review to gather empirical evidence on the issues and challenges in implementing risk-sensitive urban development. The study identified forty-six issues and challenges under seven key themes that need addressing in order to facilitate the desirable transition: trade-offs, governance, fragmentation and silos, capacity, design and development, data, and funding. The issues and challenges that exist under trade-offs for negotiating solutions for risk-sensitive urban development and the governance of multiple stakeholders were identified as the top two areas that need attention in facilitating the desirable transition. This study also revealed that important information, such as scientific information, hazard and risk information, temporal and spatial information, and critical local details are not being produced and shared between stakeholders in decision-making. A profound participatory process that involves all the stakeholders in the decision-making process was identified as the pathway to ensure equitable outcomes in risk-sensitive urban development.

Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Smallholder Irrigation Schemes of Zimbabwe

Globally, climate change poses enormous threats to the livelihoods of rural communities in arid and semi-arid regions. Assessing the extent of vulnerability is critical to identify climate hot spots and develop appropriate adaptation policies and strategies. This paper uses the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Livelihood Vulnerability Index—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) to compare vulnerability to climate change in the Exchange, Insukamini, and Ruchanyu smallholder irrigation schemes (SISs) in the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe. A questionnaire was used to collect data from a sample of 317 randomly selected households. Results show higher exposure and sensitivity to climate change in the Insukamini irrigation scheme despite the higher adaptive capacity. Both LVI and LVI-IPCC show that households in Insukamini irrigation scheme are more vulnerable to climate change than in Exchange and Ruchanyu irrigation schemes, attributed to water insecurity, poor social networks, and natural disasters and climate variability. The study recommends that development and investment in Insukamini and Ruchanyu should prioritize improving social networks while Exchange should primarily focus on improving livelihood strategies. Using the LVI-IPCC framework is a key methodology for understanding the vulnerability of communities in SISs and identifying areas that need prime development and investment. These results have implications on implementing investments and livelihood policies in SISs of Zimbabwe.

A Framework for Urban Flood Resilience Assessment with Emphasis on Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions: A Qualitative Study

In recent years, the effects of climate change have become more noticeable in Iran, especially in big cities. In particular, climate-related flood risk is increasingly recognized as a potential threat in the capital city of Tehran. Accordingly, the present study aimed to provide a framework/assessment tool to measure Tehran’s resilience to flood risks. To this end, 21 professionals from different disciplines were selected through a purposive sampling procedure and were interviewed using semi-structured interviews. The analysis procedure resulted in the identification of 3 themes, 15 categories, 40 subcategories, and 235 codes. The themes were social, economic, and organizational; The identified categories were culture and education (since culture is something to be learned through formal and informal education this component has two features: culture and education), participation, trust, attitude, solidarity, resources, empowerment, flexibility, credit, supervision, intercommunication, rules, specialization, and research. Validation of the indicators and their usability based on the opinions of local experts was used to calibrate the assessment tool and ensure its context-sensitivity. The results of this research can help planners and policymakers to increase their awareness of flood resilience. The approach taken in this research may also be useful for developing flood resilience assessment tools in other Iranian cities as well as in other cities of the Global South with similar conditions.

Flooding trends and their impacts on coastal communities of Western Cape Province, South Africa

Climate change-induced extreme weather events have been at their worst increase in the past decade (2010-2020) across Africa and globally. This has proved disruptive to global socio-economic activities. One of the challenges that has been faced in this regard is the increased coastal flooding of cities. This study examined the trends and impacts of coastal flooding in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Making use of archival climate data and primary data from key informants and field observations, it emerged that there is a statistically significant increase in the frequency of flooding and consequent human and economic losses from such in the coastal cities of the province. Flooding in urban areas of the Western Cape is a factor of human and natural factors ranging from extreme rainfall, usually caused by persistent cut off-lows, midlatitude cyclones, cold fronts and intense storms. Such floods become compounded by poor drainage caused by vegetative overgrowth on waterways and land pollution that can be traced to poor drainage maintenance. Clogging of waterways and drainage systems enhances the risk of flooding. Increased urbanisation, overpopulation in some areas and non-adherence to environmental laws results in both the affluent and poor settling on vulnerable ecosystems. These include coastal areas, estuaries, and waterways, and this worsens the risk of flooding. The study recommends a comprehensive approach to deal with factors that increase the risk of flooding as informed by the provisions of both the Sustainable Development Goals framework and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 in a bid to de-risking human settlement in South Africa.

Guidelines for developing a systematic literature review for studies related to climate change adaptation

This study proposes a set of GuFSyADD guidelines on steps for developing  suggestions that  enhance of its rigor in systematic literature review (SLR) for studies related to climate change adaptation. The prescribed guidelines are based on the following six steps, (1) guided by review of protocol/publication standard/established guidelines/related published articles, (2) formulation of review questions, (3) systematic searching strategies, (4) appraisal of quality, (5) data extraction and analysis, and (6) data demonstration. Essentially, this set of proposed  guidelines enables researchers to develop an SLR pertaining to climate change adaptation in an organised, transparent, and replicable manner.

A comparative analysis to depict underlying attributes that might determine successful implementation of local adaptation plans

Current trends in climate change indicate that the impact on the most vulnerable systems will increase. Urban areas, which concentrate population, economic activity and infrastructures, are sometimes at high-risk locations. Yet they are to be considered as vulnerable systems in need of harmonized structures supporting their efforts towards mitigating climate effects and/or adapting their territories to them. One current structure is the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (CoM) initiative, tackling in a global and harmonized way local adaptation to climate change. Do CoM cities that developed acceptable climate change adaptation plans have similar characteristics? It is still unclear which might be the drivers or key attributes potentially leading to successful planning within the initiative. In this paper, we explore attributes of the first 51 cities that have submitted their adaptation plans to CoM, in order to identify common elements among accepted plans. Therefore, our hypothesis is that there must be attributes determining the acceptance of adaptation plans. In order to do so, the cities were classified as compliant and non-compliant with the CoM principles. Fisher's and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were applied to identify attributes that are statistically different between both groups. Results show that the engagement of multiple stakeholders and citizens, particularly at the local level, might significantly facilitate the acceptance of adaptation plans in the initiative. We also found that the benefits of stakeholder and citizen engagement could be greater in small municipalities because citizens and stakeholders have more opportunities to participate.

Climate change adaptation in conflict-affected countries: A systematic assessment of evidence

People affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict. In this study, we carry out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, taking from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) dataset to documenting climate change adaptation occurring in 15 conflict-affected countries and compare the findings with records of climate adaptation finance flows and climate-related disasters in each country. Academic literature is sparse for most conflict-affected countries, and available studies tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and adaptation by low-income actors. In contrast, multilateral and bilateral funding for climate change adaptation addresses a greater diversity of adaptation needs, including water systems, humanitarian programming, and urban areas. Even among the conflict-affected countries selected, we find disparity, with several countries being the focus of substantial research and funding, and others seeing little to none. Results indicate that people in conflict-affected contexts are adapting to climate change, but there is a pressing need for diverse scholarship across various sectors that documents a broader range of adaptation types and their results.

Heading towards an unsustainable world: some of the implications of not achieving the SDGs

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were conceived at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, held in Rio de Janeiro in 2012 (Rio + 20), and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2015. They are part of a larger framework, namely the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Since then, many countries round the world have been engaging in respect of their implementation. The slow progress seen in the implementation of the SDGs, is in contrast with the many negative implications of not implementing them. This paper outlines the relevance of the SDGs, the barriers currently seen in respect of their implementation and outlines what is at stake, if they are not duly implemented. To accomplish this, a thorough literature review of contributions published in the field of SDGs in English between the years 2012-2020 was performed.

A new biorefinery platform for producing (C2-5) bioalcohols through the biological/chemical hybridization process

This review presents an emerging biorefinery platform for C_2-5 bioalcohol production through chemical synthesis using the organic waste materials. Bioalcohols are the most commercialized carbon-neutral transportation fuels, compatible with existing an internal combustion (IC) engine. However, current bioalcohol fermentation processes have made from sugar-rich edible crops. Also, carbon loss from the fermentation process is substantial. To minimize carbon loss, volatile fatty acids (VFAs) can be utilized as a raw material for bioalcohol production. Thus, a two-step chemical upgrading of VFAs into C_2-5 alcohols is summarized in comparison with current challenges of biological fermentation processes for bioalcohol production. This review also provides the prospect of the hybrid biological/chemical process, presenting the technical advantages of the system. Finally, economic viability of hybridized process for bioalcohol production is compared with the current biological process.

Adaptation towards climate change impacts among highland farmers in Malaysia

This study aims to gain more understanding on highland farmers' adaptation towards the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. Via a multi-stage cluster sampling, this quantitative study has surveyed a total of 400 highland farmers as respondents. The results indicated that the highest climate change-resilient farmers were from Kundasang, specifically among the females, Dusun ethnic group, and those who work side jobs to cover household expenses. Furthermore, recorded factors such as age and years of experience yielded significant negative relationship with adaptation whereas income yielded significant positive relationship with adaptation. The paper concludes with recommendations related to occupational diversification, consistent information disseminations, access to financial assistance, and the need to empower extension officers and local leaders in the hope that a comprehensive approach can help implement any community climate change-adaptation plan.