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Yin Y, He Q, Pan X, Liu Q, Wu Y, Li X. Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:biology11010110. [PMID: 35053108 PMCID: PMC8772860 DOI: 10.3390/biology11010110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Revised: 01/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, causing significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. In this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China and found that with climate change, there would be a trend of expanding and moving northward in the future. Abstract Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingxuan Yin
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Qing He
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Xiaowen Pan
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
| | - Yinjuan Wu
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
- Correspondence: (Y.W.); (X.L.)
| | - Xuerong Li
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
- Correspondence: (Y.W.); (X.L.)
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