Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management

The rapid prosperity of China's Pearl River Delta from the perspective of social-ecological coupling: implications for sustainable management

Systems theory and complex science, especially knowledge of social-ecological interdependencies, are urgently needed in planning and decision-making on sustainable urban development due to the intensification of the contradiction between human development and nature conservation. Here, we present an analytical framework, the "social-ecological coupling trajectory", that integrates the social-ecological coupling, multi-stability, causal feedbacks and sustainable management through understanding the evolution of the urban social-ecological system (SES). This framework is applied to a typical urban SES, i.e., China's rapidly prosperous Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that the SES evolution in the PRD is a phased process, which is accompanied by a continuous decline in major ecosystem services (ESs) and the disproportionate decline of ecological management performance. Further analysis shows that social and economic policies have a decisive role in driving the evolution of SES and the cumulative effect of sustained human interference is directly linked to the disproportionate increase in sustainability challenges. The findings of critical slowing down and evolution patterns of SES in the PRD may provide evidence for the threshold recognition and regime shift prediction in SES. In sum, this study expands the theoretical framework and empirical knowledge of SES evolution and provides a pathway for sustainable development of regions seeking prosperity from the social-ecological coupling perspective.

Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Thinking outside the ocean-climate nexus: Towards systems-informed decision making in a rapidly changing world

Despite repeated calls for more inclusive practices, approaches used to address current challenges within the ocean-climate nexus do not sufficiently account for the complexity of the human-social-ecological system. So far, this has prevented efficient and just decision-making and policies. We propose to shift towards systems-informed decision making, which values transdisciplinary system-thinking and cumulative impact assessments, and encourages multi-system collaboration among decision-makers in order to address the recurring technicality of policies and to foster just solutions that account for the needs of varied actors across the sustainable development spectrum.

A methodological framework for assessing pastoral socio-ecological system vulnerability: A case study of Altay Prefecture in Central Asia

Vulnerability analysis is important for enhancing sustainability, especially for highly interlinked pastoral socio-ecological systems. This study presents a modified methodological framework for assessing the vulnerability of pastoral socio-ecological systems based on the interactions between social and ecological subsystems and their vulnerabilities. Altay Prefecture (Northwest China), a typical pastoral area located in Central Asia, was chosen for the case study. The ecological vulnerability index (EVI) and socio-ecological vulnerability index (SEVI) of Altay Prefecture from 2001 to 2018 were assessed and classified into five levels. The results showed that the distribution pattern of EVI was spatially heterogeneous, with EVI increasing from north to south and from west to east. The EVI was high in low-altitude deserts, decreased with altitude rising from 1300 m to 2200 m, and increased when the altitude exceeded 2200 m. The average EVI increased from 2001 to 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2018, with the highest EVI in 2010 and the lowest in 2018. The SEVI of western counties was lower than that of eastern counties; the SEVI of all counties continuously decreased from 2001 to 2018, with a higher rate from 2010 to 2018. Social adaptive capacity, increased by the policies that aim at protecting grasslands and improving livelihoods, was the main influencing factor of the SEVI dynamic. These results will help to identify key areas with high EVI for grassland ecosystem management and strengthen the adaptive capacity for addressing vulnerability. Furthermore, the presented methodological framework can be adopted in vulnerability assessments of similar pastoral areas or natural resource-based socio-ecological systems.

Research Advancement in Grassland Ecosystem Vulnerability and Ecological Resilience and Its Inspiration for Improving Grassland Ecosystem Services in the Karst Desertification Control

Karst desertification control of grasslands balances the ecological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and rural ecological animal husbandry development. In the context of global changes and intensified human activities, the fragility of grassland ecosystems under karst desertification control is becoming increasingly evident, and enhancing the ecological resilience and ecosystem services of grasslands is an issue that urgently needs to be addressed. In this paper, the CNKI literature, WOS core databases and Goolgle scholar were used as search sources, identifying 179 articles related to the study of grassland ecosystem vulnerability and ecological resilience. This research systematically reviewed the progress of grassland ecosystem vulnerability research and analyzed the relationship between grassland ecosystem services (GESs) and grassland ecosystem vulnerability and resilience. The direction of enhancing GESs in karst areas is indicated in terms of the reciprocal feedback, synergistic relationship, and mechanism of action of GESs, vulnerability, and resilience. It is also emphasized that the karst desertification area should provide an ecological foundation for the sustainable development of the regional environment around the supply-and-demand relationship of GESs, the trade-off synergy of service flow, and the enhancement of ecological resilience, thereby consolidating the effectiveness of karst desertification control, enhancing GESs, and helping rural revitalization.

Horizon Scan of Transboundary Concerns Impacting Snow Leopard Landscapes in Asia

The high-altitude region of Asia is prone to natural resource degradation caused by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors that also threaten the habitat of critical top predator species, the snow leopard (Panthera uncia). The snow leopard’s landscape encompasses parts of the twelve Asian countries and is dominated by pastoral societies within arid mountainous terrain. However, no investigation has assessed the vulnerability and pathways towards long-term sustainability on the global snow leopard landscape scale. Thus, the current study reviewed 123 peer-reviewed scientific publications on the existing knowledge, identified gaps, and proposed sustainable mitigation options for the longer term and on larger landscape levels in the range countries. The natural resource degradation in this region is caused by various social, economic, and ecological threats that negatively affect its biodiversity. The factors that make the snow leopard landscapes vulnerable include habitat fragmentation through border fencing, trade corridor infrastructure, non-uniform conservation policies, human–snow leopard conflict, the increasing human population, climatic change, land use and cover changes, and unsustainable tourism. Thus, conservation of the integrated Socio-Ecological System (SES) prevailing in this region requires a multi-pronged approach. This paper proposes solutions and identifies the pathways through which to implement these solutions. The prerequisite to implementing such solutions is the adoption of cross-border collaboration (regional cooperation), the creation of peace parks, readiness to integrate transnational and cross-sectoral conservation policies, a focus on improving livestock management practices, a preparedness to control human population growth, a readiness to mitigate climate change, initiating transboundary landscape-level habitat conservation, adopting environment-friendly trade corridors, and promoting sustainable tourism. Sustainable development in this region encompasses the political, social, economic, and ecological landscapes across the borders.

Phase transitions in biology: from bird flocks to population dynamics

Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment.

Hybrid model for ecological vulnerability assessment in Benin

Identifying ecologically fragile areas by assessing ecosystem vulnerability is an essential task in environmental conservation and management. Benin is considered a vulnerable area, and its coastal zone, which is subject to erosion and flooding effects, is particularly vulnerable. This study assessed terrestrial ecosystems in Benin by establishing a hybrid ecological vulnerability index (EVI) for 2016 that combined a composite model based on principal component analysis (PCA) with an additive model based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. Using inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, point data were spatially distributed by their geographic significance. The results revealed that the composite system identified more stable and vulnerable areas than the additive system; the two systems identified 48,600 km² and 36,450 km² of stable areas, respectively, for a difference of 12,150 km², and 3,729 km² and 3,007 km² of vulnerable areas, for a difference of 722 km². Using Moran's I and automatic linear modeling, we improved the accuracy of the established systems. In the composite system, increases of 11,669 km² in the potentially vulnerable area and 1,083 km² in the highly vulnerable area were noted in addition to a decrease of 4331 km² in the potential area; while in the additive system, an increase of 3,970 km² in the highly vulnerable area was observed. Finally, southern Benin was identified as vulnerable in the composite system, and both northern and southern Benin were identified as vulnerable in the additive system. However, regardless of the system, Littoral Province in southern Benin, was consistently identified as vulnerable, while Donga Province was stable.

Spatial-temporal shifts of ecological vulnerability of Karst Mountain ecosystem-impacts of global change and anthropogenic interference

Under the background of global climate change, the natural environment of the southwest karst mountain region is undergoing profound changes. Considering the differences in the relative importance of each index in the vulnerability evaluation system in different periods, this study presents the dynamic weight determination method and then establishes the dynamic weight table of the ecological vulnerability evaluation index in the southwest karst mountain region. At the same time, net primary productivity (NPP) is introduced to help determine the ecological vulnerability classification threshold in different periods, and then the spatial-temporal change pattern and driving mechanism of ecological vulnerability in the past 15 years are analyzed. Results show the following: (1) Dynamic weight determination method has good application in the study of ecological vulnerability in long-term series, and the threshold of vulnerability classification based on NPP can ensure the comparability of ecological vulnerability evaluation results in different periods; (2) From 2000 to 2015, the southwest karst mountain region generally belonged to the moderate vulnerability category, and a decreasing trend is observed from the Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizhou border area to its surrounding region in a spatial distribution pattern; (3) In the past 15 years, the ecological vulnerability of the southwest karst mountain region increased first and then decreased; (4) The spatial-temporal change pattern of ecological vulnerability in the southwest karst mountain region is significantly affected by GDP of different industries, precipitation, soil erosion, rocky desertification. These results would be in particular useful for planning the conservation strategies or assessments of the conservation priorities. In addition, the method employed could provide a technical support and references for the ecological assessment and restoration of other similar karst mountain ecosystem zones in China or worldwide.