Decoupling PM2.5 emissions and economic growth in China over 1998-2016: A regional investment perspective

Decomposition and scenario analysis of final demand embedded manufacturing consumption emissions: insights from the province-level data

In order to support the emissions reduction options in manufacturing industry effectively, it is necessary to quantify the final demand embedded manufacturing consumption (DEMC) emissions which can be estimated by converting intermediate manufacturing consumption into all final demand categories. Here, we quantify the DEMC emissions in China's 30 provinces during 2007-2017 using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model and the modified hypothetical extraction method (HEM). Then, we analyze impacts of four factors (including emissions multipliers, consumption structure, investment efficiency, and investment scale) on the DEMC emissions. Finally, considering a large driving effect of investment scale on manufacturing emissions, we conduct four scenarios to quantify the mitigation potential of DEMC emissions during 2020-2035. We find that from 2007 to 2012, the DMEC emissions increased doubled, while during 2012-2017, it decreased from 1217 to 634 Mt. The capital-intensive manufacturing and the labor-intensive manufacturing industries were main sources of intra- and inter-sectoral emissions, respectively. Investment scale was the main driver of the growth in DEMC emissions during 2007-2015, while it led to a reduction of DEMC emissions during 2015-2017. Emission multipliers had the largest positive impact on the reduction of DEMC emissions during the whole period. Consumption structure increased DEMC emissions during 2007-2012, while with the consumption structure shift towards knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry, it induced a reduction of DEMC emissions during 2012-2017. Moreover, implementing an integrated mitigation measures (including reducing emissions multipliers, decreasing investment efficiency, and adjusting consumption structure) could help China to realize the emissions peaking target. However, there are still 8 provinces whose DEMC emissions are unlikely to peak before 2030.

What Factors Dominate the Change of PM2.5 in the World from 2000 to 2019? A Study from Multi-Source Data

As the threat to human life and health from fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) increases globally, the life and health problems caused by environmental pollution are also of increasing concern. Understanding past trends in PM_2.5 and exploring the drivers of PM_2.5 are important tools for addressing the life-threatening health problems caused by PM_2.5. In this study, we calculated the change in annual average global PM_2.5 concentrations from 2000 to 2020 using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and reveal spatial and temporal trends in PM_2.5 concentrations over twenty-one years. The qualitative and quantitative effects of different drivers on PM_2.5 concentrations in 2020 were explored from natural and socioeconomic perspectives using a multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results show that there is significant spatial heterogeneity in trends in PM_2.5 concentration, with significant decreases in PM_2.5 concentrations mainly in developed regions, such as the United States, Canada, Japan and the European Union countries, and conversely, significant increases in PM_2.5 in developing regions, such as Africa, the Middle East and India. In addition, in regions with more advanced science and technology and urban management, PM_2.5 concentrations are more evenly influenced by various factors, with a more negative influence. In contrast, regions at the rapid development stage usually continue their economic development at the cost of the environment, and under a high intensity of human activity. Increased temperature is known as the most important factor for the increase in PM_2.5 concentration, while an increase in NDVI can play an important role in the reduction in PM_2.5 concentration. This suggests that countries can achieve good air quality goals by setting a reasonable development path.

Drivers and Decoupling Effects of PM2.5 Emissions in China: An Application of the Generalized Divisia Index

Although economic growth brings abundant material wealth, it is also associated with serious PM_2.5 pollution. Decoupling PM_2.5 emissions from economic development is important for China's long-term sustainable development. In this paper, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) is extended by introducing innovation indicators to investigate the main drivers of PM_2.5 pollution in China and its four subregions from 2008 to 2017. Afterwards, a GDIM-based decoupling index is developed to examine the decoupling states between PM_2.5 emissions and economic growth and to identify the main factors leading to decoupling. The obtained results show that: (1) Innovation input scale and GDP are the main drivers for increases in PM_2.5 emissions, while innovation input PM_2.5 intensity, emission intensity, and emission coefficient are the main reasons for reductions in PM_2.5 pollution. (2) China and its four subregions show general upward trends in the decoupling index, and their decoupling states turn from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. (3) Innovation input PM_2.5 intensity, emission intensity, and emission coefficient contribute largely to the decoupling of PM_2.5 emissions. Overall, this paper provides valuable information for mitigating haze pollution.

Can Economic Growth and Environmental Protection Achieve a "Win-Win" Situation? Empirical Evidence from China

Achieving a "win-win" situation regarding economic growth and environmental protection has become a common goal for sustainable development in all countries around the world. As the world's largest developing country and the second largest economy, China has been striving to maintain economic growth while improving environmental quality to achieve its sustainable development goals. Applying the decoupling approach, a model widely used to quantify the relationship between the environment and the economy, this study analyzed the relationship between the economy and the environment, examining the decoupling performance of economic growth and environmental impacts in 30 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities to investigate whether economic growth and environmental protection have achieved a "win-win" situation. Nighttime light (NTL) data were used to measure the performance of economic growth. In addition, an environmental pressure index (EPI) assessment framework covering 6 primary and 11 secondary indicators was constructed to measure the environmental quality of China over time. First, NTL data proved to be a valid data source for assessing decoupling performance; second, environmental pressure at both the national and provincial levels significantly decreased during the study period; third, the relationship between the economy and the environment has been further improved, and economic growth and environmental protection have achieved a "win-win" situation. These findings offer an in-depth analysis of the decoupling of the economy and the environment in China and serve as a guide for future implementation strategies for sustainable development in various regions.

Exploring the Regional Coordination Relationship between Water Utilization and Urbanization Based on Decoupling Analysis: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Understanding the potential association between the urbanization process and regional water shortage/pollution is conducive to promoting the intensive utilization of local water resources. In this study, the water footprint model was used to estimate water utilization status in terms of both water quantity (virtual water footprint (VWF)) and water quality (grey water footprint (GWF)) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (China) during 2004–2017. Their potential coordination relationship with the local urbanization process represented by the gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), and built-up area (BA) was examined using the Tapio decoupling model. The results showed that from 2004 to 2017, (1) VWF in Beijing and Tianjin showed non-significant decreasing trends, with reductions of 1.08 × 109 and 1.56 × 109 m3, respectively, while that in Hebei showed a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 5.74 × 109 m3. This indicated a gradually increasing water demand in Hebei and decreasing demand in Beijing and Tianjin. In all three regions, the agricultural sector accounted for a relatively high proportion of VWF compared to other sectors. (2) GWF in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei all showed declining trends, with reductions of 2.19 × 1010, 2.32 × 1010, and 1.66 × 1011 m3, respectively, indicating considerable local water quality improvement. The domestic sector contributed as the main component of GWF in Beijing, while agriculture was the main contributor in Hebei. The major contributor in Tianjin transitioned from the domestic (before 2015) to the agricultural sector. (3) We found good coordination between VWF and GDP in all three regions, as their local economic development was no longer overly dependent on water consumption. However, the expansion of urban built-up area or population would bring about accelerated depletion of water resources. (4) GWF in the three provinces showed good coordination with GDP, POP, and BA in most years, implying that the development of urbanization no longer strongly caused the pollution of water resources. In sum, policymakers should focus on improving agricultural irrigation efficiency and residents’ awareness of water conservation, so as to gradually achieve sustainable water resource management in the BTH region.

Do environmental regulation and urbanization help decouple economic growth from water consumption at national and subnational scales in China?

Moving to economic growth without water consumption growth is essential to sustainability of both water and economy. This work is aimed to estimate the decoupling state between economic growth and water consumption and then to investigate the effects of urbanization and environmental regulation on water consumption at national and subnational scales using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019. The decoupling results show that (i) there are only two types between China's water consumption and economic growth: weak decoupling (80%) and strong decoupling (20%); (ii) the weak decoupling has transitioned to strong decoupling after 2013; and that (iii) the decoupling degree of the water-poor region is weaker than that of the water-rich region. The results of causal relationships estimation show that an average 1% increase in urbanization level and environmental regulation leads to 0.3359% and 0.0104% drop in water consumption, respectively, which indicates that urbanization and environmental regulation have inhibited water consumption at the national scale. At the subnational sale, the effects of environmental regulation and urbanization on water consumption are heterogeneous. An average 1% increase in environmental regulation led to only a 0.0161% drop in water consumption in the water-poor region, whereas an average 1% increase in urbanization level led to only a 0.9838% drop in water consumption in the water-rich region. This means that the inhibition of environmental regulation on water use appears in the water-poor region, while the inhibition of urbanization is more prominent in the water-rich region.

The impact of technological progress on China's haze pollution-based on decomposition and rebound research

In order to effectively analyze and explore the socio-economic impact of haze pollution, the article constructs a comprehensive two-stage decomposition model to verify that technological progress plays a key role in controlling haze pollution. And for the first time, a macro-level research framework for the rebound effect of haze pollution has been constructed to compare and analyze the heterogeneity of the rebound effect of technological progress in different industries in different regions. The study found that (1) during the period 2000-2017, haze pollution situation deteriorated. Economic effects were the main reasons for haze pollution. Among these effects, technological progress was the main driving force for haze control, followed by the emission intensity during 2000-2011 and the reduction of industrial structure since 2014. (2) The significant drive of emission reduction is in the secondary industry, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Besides, there was a difference in spatial distribution, which shows an increased trend from east to west. (3) The rebound effect of haze pollution at the macro level in China presented high-level fluctuations, and there were certain spatial distribution differences. However, due to the convergence of technological development stages, regional differences have a gradual convergence trend. In the future, in the process of haze control, it is necessary to increase support for technological innovation, implement energy total control and price reform, promote technological progress, and implement differentiated haze reduction policies to solve problems according to local conditions.

Revisiting the Existence of EKC Hypothesis under Different Degrees of Population Aging: Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from 140 Countries

Population aging and environmental sustainability have become two hot topics in the world today. To clarify whether the Environmental Kuninets Curve (EKC) hypothesis between the economy and the environment is still valid in the context of population aging is the key to reveal the complexity of social-ecological systems in aging societies. So far, the impact of population aging on the environment has not been clear. To this end, an empirical analysis on the threshold panel model was conducted using panel data of 140 countries from 2000 to 2015. The global findings suggest that economic growth was the main reason for the increase in the ecological footprint at the beginning of aging. However, deepening aging weakened this association between economic and ecological footprints. For high-income countries, with the deepening of aging, the economic and ecological footprints were firstly negatively correlated, then positively correlated, and finally negatively correlated. In other words, the EKC hypothesis remained valid in high-income countries as aging deepened. In contrast, for the low- and middle-income group, the economic-environmental association was not affected by the degree of aging. This result sheds light on the variability of different income country groups in coping with the environmental impacts of aging. For the high-income group, policy makers should pay attention to the aging threshold in socio-ecological management. Only in this way can the development of aging and the ecological environment be reconciled to the greatest extent.

Retrospect and Outlook of Research on Regional Haze Pollution in China: A Systematic Literature Review

Regional haze pollution, a severe atmospheric environmental problem, has profoundly harmful effects on the ecological environment, public health and the quality of economic development, and has accordingly attracted considerable attention from policymakers, researchers and the public. This article comprises a systematic literature review of the existing research on the theoretical mechanism, empirical analysis and institutional arrangement of regional haze pollution. As a result, it is found that various studies from multiple disciplines have touched upon the relevance of haze issues, including theoretical and experimental research on its formation, evolution and mechanisms from the perspective of the natural sciences, as well as empirical analysis and policy research on governance strategies, effects and mechanisms from the perspective of the social sciences, yet a systematic review and critical assessment synthesizing the above research is urgently needed. Future directions and research prospects are highlighted, showing that it is necessary to supplement and improve the theory and practice concerning the identification, measurement and assessment of haze pollution, as well as regional controlling strategies and policy implementation assessments. In short, in this review, we have aimed to help integrate the theoretical and empirical consensus in multidisciplinary fields, thereby promoting the accurate analysis, fine management and the development of precise policies in regards to regional haze pollution.

Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of risk perception of haze in China: The case study of publishing online comments about haze news on Sina

Haze has become an important factor to harm people's health. In the face of the harm of haze, people express risk perception behavior through publishing online comments on haze news. To a certain extent, online comments affect the government's decision to deal with haze. However, most of the previous efforts only focused on several cities from a micro perspective whereas the existing research lacks to explore the regional differences of risk perception behavior of the whole country from a macro perspective. The macro perspective of research can help policymakers to formulate strategies of haze control according to local conditions. Therefore, it is important to understand the risk perception behavior of publishing online comments and haze from the macro perspective. In this study, we use quantitative methods to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of online comments and PM_2.5 in 334 cities in China from 2014 to 2018. From the spatial perspective, the spatial characteristics of online comments are quite different from those of PM_2.5 at the city level. It can be seen that the spatial mismatch can affect the government's strategy of haze control according to local conditions. From the perspective of influencing factors, we find that the risk perception behavior of publishing online comments conforms to the theory of environmental risk perception. Firstly, the local social development level is the largest driving force accelerating risk perception behavior. Secondly, information channel also has significantly positive effect on public risk perception behavior. Finally, the harmful degree of haze has the least positive effect on people's risk perception behavior. This gives us enlightenment. The number of online comments does not reflect the harmful degree of haze in different regions. We suggest that online comments should not be the main reference factor for policymakers to make strategies.

Decoupling Analysis between Economic Growth and Air Pollution in Key Regions of Air Pollution Control in China

The Chinese government has implemented a number of environmental policies to promote the continuous improvement of air quality while considering economic development. Scientific assessment of the impact of environmental policies on the relationship between air pollution and economic growth can provide a scientific basis for promoting the coordinated development of these two factors. This paper uses the Tapio decoupling theory to analyze the relationship between regional economic growth and air pollution in key regions of air pollution control in China—namely, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and surrounding areas (BTHS), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD)—based on data of GDP and the concentrations of SO2, PM10, and NO2 for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the SO2, PM10, and NO2 pollution in the key regions show strong and weak decoupling. The findings additionally indicate that government policies have played a significant role in improving the decoupling between air pollution and economic development. The decoupling between economic growth and SO2 and PM10 pollution in the BTHS, YRD, and PRD is better than that in other regions, while the decoupling between economic growth and NO2 pollution has not improved significantly in these regions. To improve the relationship between economic growth and air pollution, we suggest that the governments of China and other developing countries should further optimize and adjust the structure of industry, energy, and transportation; apply more stringent targets and measures in areas of serious air pollution; and strengthen mobile vehicle pollution control.

Heterogeneous links among urban concentration, non-renewable energy use intensity, economic development, and environmental emissions across regional development levels

This study examined the long-run and short-run heterogeneous links among urban concentration, non-renewable energy use intensity, economic development, and environmental emissions index across the regional development levels of 31 Chinese provinces. By employing the augmented mean group method and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality, the following results are drawn: Firstly, a bidirectional positive linkage was existent between the economic development and urban concentration in both the long-run and short-run across regional development levels. Secondly, a unidirectional positive linkage emerged from non-renewable energy use intensity to environmental emissions index, with the most influential effect in EER China (highest development level). Thirdly, bidirectional mixed linkages prevailed between economic development and non-renewable energy use intensity. Economic development mitigated the non-renewable energy use intensity (inverted U-shaped curve) in the national data set and EER China (highest development level); nevertheless, the linear linkage was observed in IER China (medium development level) and WER China (lowest development level). Fourthly, unidirectional mixed linkages were found from urban concentration to non-renewable energy use intensity and environmental emissions index. Urban concentration demonstrated a U-shaped linkage with non-renewable energy use intensity and environmental emissions index in the national data set and EER China. But it unveiled a linear linkage with both variables in IER China and WER China. Fifthly, economic development showed an environmental Kuznets curve with environmental emissions index in the national data set and EER China. Conversely, it showed a linear linkage with the environmental emissions index in IER China and WER China. In turn, the environmental emissions index linearly hampered the economic development in the national data set as well as regional samples. Finally, the long-run and short-run effects showed homogeneity of the linkages' nature; yet, the degree of effects in the long-run surpassed those in the short-run for all development levels.

Socioeconomic driving factors of PM2.5 emission in Jing-Jin-Ji region, China: a generalized Divisia index approach

Air quality in China is increasingly improving, but the situation facing the atmosphere environment is still dire. Regional atmospheric environmental problems characterized by PM2.5 pollutants are becoming increasingly prominent, especially in the Jing-Jin-Ji (3J) region. This study employs the generalized Divisia index approach to decompose the factors that influence the changes of PM2.5 emission in the 3J region. It is divided into 8 factors: scale effect of regional economy, scale effect of regional energy consumption, scale effect of investment in treatment of environment pollution (ITEP), technology effect of energy efficient utilization, technology effect of clean energy utilization technology, the intensity effect of regional green economic development, the intensity effect of investment in treatment of regional PM2.5 emission, and the intensity effect of regional environmental regulation. To identify the vital driving force of the change of PM2.5 emission, the contribution of each driving factor of PM2.5 emission variation is analyzed. The results show that the factors affecting the change of PM2.5 emission are almost the same, but the contribution of each factor is apparently different in the 3J region. The level of regional economic development and the scale of energy consumption promoted the increase of PM2.5 emission in the region. The growth of PM2.5 emission can be effectively controlled by green economic development intensity, energy clean utilization technology, environmental regulation intensity, and the intensity of investment in treatment of PM2.5 emission. Energy efficiency has a slight effect on the changes of PM2.5 emission. ITEP has a negative effect on the changes of PM2.5 emission. In the future, the 3J region needs to optimize the structure of ITEP further and implement the refinement and precision of pollution treatment. Moreover, it also needs to promote the development of energy clean and efficient use of technological innovation to drive PM2.5 emission reduction.

Economic policy choice of governing haze pollution: evidence from global 74 countries

Haze pollution not only has a huge impact on economic development but also seriously damages the health of residents, which has attracted the attention of many countries and scholars. The geographical detector model and the panel quantile regression model are used in combination to analyze the socio-economic driving factors of haze pollution from 2010 to 2015 for 74 significantly representative countries. The main results are as follows: (1) Industrial structure is the main factor affecting the haze concentration, followed by economic growth and research and development (R&D) intensity. (2) Government influence and industrial structure will significantly aggravate haze pollution, whereas the energy intensity and economic growth have an inhibitory effect on haze concentration. Countries with severe haze pollution should focus on upgrading their industrial structure and avoiding energy rebound. (3) Urbanization, foreign investment, and R&D intensity have different effects on the haze concentration among countries with different pollution levels. Specifically, the relationship between economic growth and pollution is inverted N-shaped in countries with medium haze concentration, whereas in other countries, it is positive N-shaped. Countries should actively leverage the agglomeration effect of high-density urban populations and focus on the introduction of high-quality foreign capital.

Understanding global PM2.5 concentrations and their drivers in recent decades (1998-2016)

The threat of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is increasing globally. Tackling this issue requires an accurate understanding of its trends and drivers. In this study, global risk regions of PM2.5 concentrations during 1998-2016 were spatiotemporally derived. Time series analysis was conducted in the spatial relationship between PM2.5 and three socio-environmental drivers: population, urban ratio, and vegetation greenness that can cause changes in the concentration of PM2.5. "High Risk" areas were widely distributed in India and China. In India and sub-Saharan Africa, the increased overall population was strongly correlated with PM2.5 concentrations. Urban ratio increased in both developed and developing countries. A "decoupling" phenomenon occurred in developed countries, where urban expansion continued while PM2.5 concentrations decreased. Vegetation greenness and PM2.5 were strongly correlated in High Risk zones. Although urban expansion and population growth generally reduce vegetation greenness, developed countries reduced PM2.5 while maintaining greenness, whereas developing countries increased PM2.5 with decreasing greenness significantly in High Risk regions. Ultimately, economic and national growth should occur without increasing PM2.5 concentrations. Recent cases from Europe and the eastern United States demonstrate that this is possible, depending on the development pathway.

Integrating Sustainability Assessment into Decoupling Analysis: A Focus on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

Rapid urbanization has led to a growing number of environmental challenges in large parts of China, where the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations serve as a typical example. To evaluate the relationship between environmental sustainability gaps and urbanization in 26 cities of the YRD, this study revisited the environmental sustainability assessment (ESA) by combining the metrics of environmental footprints and planetary boundaries at the city level, and then integrated the footprint-boundary ESA framework into decoupling analysis. The results demonstrated considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the environmental sustainability of water use, land use, carbon emissions, nitrogen emissions, phosphorus emissions and PM2.5 emissions across the YRD cities during the study period 2007–2017. Decoupling analysis revealed a positive sign that more than half of the 26 cities had achieved the decoupling of each category of environmental sustainability gaps from urbanization since 2014, especially for nitrogen and phosphorus emissions. On the basis of ESA and decoupling analysis, all the cities were categorized into six patterns, for which the optimal pathways towards sustainable development were discussed in depth. Our study will assist policy makers in formulating more tangible and differentiated policies to achieve decoupling between environmental sustainability gaps and urbanization.

Spatial-Temporal Analysis and Driving Factors Decomposition of (De)Coupling Condition of SO2 Emissions in China

China has a fast-growing economy and is one of the top three sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emitters in the world. This paper is committed to finding efficient ways for China to reduce SO₂ emissions with little impact on its socio-economic development. Data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 were collected to assess the decoupling relationship between economic growth and SO₂ emissions. The Tapio method was used. Then, the temporal trend of decoupling was analyzed and the Moran Index was introduced to test spatial autocorrelation of the provinces. To concentrate resources and improve the reduction efficiency, a generalized logarithmic mean Divisia index improved by the Cobb-Douglas function was applied to decompose drivers of SO₂ emissions and to identify the main drivers. Results showed that the overall relationship between SO₂ emissions and economic growth had strong decoupling (SD) since 2012; provinces, except for Liaoning and Guizhou, have reached SD since 2015. The decoupling indexes of neighboring provinces had spatial dependence at more than 95% certainty. The main positive driver was the proportion of the secondary sector of the economy and the main negative drivers were related to energy consumption and investment in waste gas treatment. Then, corresponding suggestions for government and enterprises were made.

The Changing Factors Affecting Local Environmental Governance in China: Evidence from a Study of Prefecture-Level Cities in Guangdong Province

This paper aims to examine the changing factors underlying China’s environmental governance, by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of related endogenous and exogenous factors and considering regional differences in these factors. The study estimated environmental regulation intensity and employed the geographical detector technique to analyze its driving factors, based on 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province, China, from 1990 to 2016. The results showed that environmental regulation intensity has increased in Guangdong Province over the past 27 years. The results also indicated that local environmental governance was affected by global–local interactions and changed based on different regional developmental phases. At first, factors within a region affected local environmental policies more significantly, such as economic development and urbanization. However, in the long run, globalization’s impacts have been the most important factors influencing environmental governance. Further analysis showed that environmental regulation intensity in Guangdong Province’s different regions was affected by different driven factors. Our analyses contribute to the understanding of China’s environmental governance and have policy implications for environmental problem management and China’s construction of an ecological civilization.