Ecosystem service potential, flow, demand and their spatial associations: a comparison of the nutrient retention service between a human- and a nature-dominated watershed

A framework for validating watershed ecosystem service models in the United States using long-term water quality data: Applications with the InVEST Nutrient Delivery (NDR) model in Puerto Rico

Modeling of watershed Ecosystem Services (ES) processes has increased greatly in recent years, potentially improving environmental management and decision-making by describing the value of nature. ES models may be sensitive to different conditions and, therefore, should ideally be validated against observed data for their use as a decision-support instrument. However, outcomes from such ES modeling are barely validated, making it difficult to assess uncertainties associated with the modeling and justify their actual usefulness to develop generalizable management recommendations. This study proposes a framework for the systematic validation of one of such tools, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Model (NDR) for nutrient retention estimates. The framework is divided into three stages: 1) running the NDR model inputs, processes, and outputs; 2) building a long-term reference dataset from open access water quality observations; and 3) using the reference data for model calibration and validation. We applied this framework to twenty watersheds in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, where data availability resembles thar of watersheds across the United States. Long-term water quality data from monitoring stations facilitated model calibration and validation. Our framework provided a reproducible method to linking the vast monitoring network in the U.S. and its territories for evaluating the InVEST's NDR model performance. Beyond the framework development, this study found that the InVEST NDR model explained 62.7 % and 79.3 % of the variance in the total nitrogen and total phosphorus between 2000 and 2022, respectively, supporting the suitability of the model for watershed scale ecosystem services assessment. The findings can also serve as a reference to support the use of InVEST for other locations in the tropics without publically available monitoring data.

Managing the supply-demand mismatches and potential flows of ecosystem services from the perspective of regional integration: A case study of Hangzhou, China

Regional integration is a development strategy that synergizes various components as a whole to maximize overall benefits. The natural heterogeneity and fluidity of ecosystem service (ES) make it a promising target for regional integration. However, the current focus on regional integration was more on the socio-economic factors rather than ecological resources, and the understanding of the supply-demand relationship and potential flow of ecosystem services was still limited. Therefore, we attempted to interpret ecological integration management by linking ES budgets, bundles, and flows in this study. The results showed that the spatial mismatches of ESs supply-demand were observed in all six selected ES types. Most of the ESs deficit regions were concentrated in urban centers, while ES surplus regions were scattered in surrounding rural areas. Multiple heterogeneous ES resources could ideally benefit an additional 0.13-4.84 million people in 9-70 townships through potential ES flows under ecological integration management. Therefore, we connected the service provisioning areas (SPAs) and service beneficiary areas (SBAs) with three types of ES flows and drew the potential provider-beneficiary relationship networks at the townships/bundles scale, demonstrating the interactive relationship of ecological integration within the region. On this basis, we also proposed the applicability matrix of governance tools for the first time according to the type of ES flows, and then put forward the corresponding governance opinions around the two aspects of "improving ES budges within clusters" and "strengthening ES flow among clusters". This study provided an ecological perspective for understanding regional integration, and relevant conclusions can inform environmental policy priorities for sustainable decision-making in urbanized areas.

Understanding supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem services and interactive effects of drivers to support spatial planning in Tianjin metropolis, China

Metropolitan areas are being challenged by the disparity between growing societal needs and dwindling natural resource provision. Understanding the supply-demand mismatches of ecosystem services (ES) and their drivers is essential for landscape planning and decision-making. However, integrating such information into spatial planning remains challenging due to the complex nature of urban ecosystems and their intrinsic interactions. In this study, we first assessed and mapped the supply, demand, and mismatches of six typical ES in Tianjin, China. We then clustered numerous townships based on their corresponding spatial characteristic of ES supply-demand mismatches. We also used Random Forest regression to examine the relative importance of drivers and applied Partial Least Squares structural equation modelling to decouple their interactions. The results showed that, the distribution of ES supply and demand showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with a common surplus of ES supply in highly natural mountainous region and an excess of demand in urban centre. Additionally, all towns were classified into four spatial clusters with homogeneous states of supply-demand mismatches, serving as basic units for spatial optimization. Moreover, the interactions between drivers affected ES supply-demand mismatches in a coupled manner, including the direct effects of the socioeconomic factor (-0.821) and landscape composition (0.234), as well as the indirect effects of the biophysical factor (0.151) and landscape configuration (0.082). Finally, we discussed the utility of analysing the spatial mismatches between ES supply and demand for integrated territorial planning and coordinated decision-making.

Water security assessment and driving mechanism in the ecosystem service flow condition

Water resources are the foundation of human survival and development. Thus, it is essential to quantify the relationship between water supply and demand and assess water security to ensure sustainable use of water resources. In this study, we quantified the relationship between water supply and demand in the Yiluo River Basin (YRB) using the InVEST model, constructed a spatial flow model of water provision service at the sub-watershed scale, and analyzed the water security index (WSI) under static and dynamic conditions. Subsequently, we used geographic detectors to identify the explanatory power of the main influencing factors of the WSI. The results showed that (1) from 2005 to 2018, the water supply decreased continuously and the water demand first increased and then decreased in the YRB; (2) the spatial pattern of WSI showed that it was high in the southwest and low in the northeast, wherein the highest and lowest WSI values occurred in 2005 and 2018, respectively. From 2005 to 2018, the mean values of the static and dynamic WSI decreased from 0.77 to 0.60 and 1.56 to 1.20, respectively. (3) The precipitation factor from the supply dimension and the gross domestic product (GDP) factor from the demand dimension had the strongest explanatory power for the static WSI. For the dynamic WSI, the flow quantity of the water provision service flow had the strongest explanatory power. This study provided a reference for governments to formulate sustainable water resource management.

Exploring interactions in water-related ecosystem services nexus in Loess Plateau

Scientific understanding of the driving relationship between water-related ecosystem services (WESs) and influencing factors, as well as the trade-off and synergy relationship between WESs and WESs, is the premise of reasonably bringing them into management decisions. However, the existing research often separates the above-mentioned two relationships and conducts independent research, which leads to the conflict of research conclusions and cannot be well adopted by managers. Therefore, based on the panel data of Loess Plateau in 2000-2019, this paper uses the simultaneous equation model to combine the two kinds of relationships existing between WESs and influencing factors, establish a feedback loop, and reveal the interactions mechanism of WESs nexus. The results show that: (1) The fragmentation of land use leads to the uneven spatial-temporal distribution of WESs. (2) Vegetation factors and land factors are the main driving factors that affect WESs, and the impact of climate factors on WESs is decreasing year by year. (3) The increase of water yield ecosystem services will lead to the obvious increase in soil export ecosystem services, and there is a synergistic relationship between soil export ecosystem services and nitrogen export ecosystem services. The conclusion can provide an important reference for implementing the strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development.

On the coordination in diversity between water environmental capacity and regional development in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

Water environment capacity has drew the attention of policymakers and stakeholders to sustainable development, and its dynamic changes are ultimately impacted by population, capital, and industrial clusters under regional development. Previous research, however, has not been able to completely comprehend it. In this paper, the authors use the Coupling Coordination Degree model and the Geodetector model to study the temporal and spatial evolution of water environment capacity and its driving mechanism based on regional development represented by regional function including urbanization function, ecological function, and agricultural function using the Three Gorges Reservoir area on county scale as a case study from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that (1) compared with 2000, 2005, and 2010, the water environment capacity of the whole reservoir area in 2015 was significantly improved. (2) The urban functions of each district and county are increasing in different years, and the dynamic changes of ecological and agricultural functions are obviously different. (3) The water environment capacity of districts and counties in the head area. There are significant disparities in the relationship between water environment capacity and regional function in various regions. Differences in water environment capacity are largely influenced by ecological function and the interaction driver of the proportion of agricultural function and urban function, which are typically the biggest of all the components. This suggests that regional development is a top priority in order to improve the operability of the water environmental capacity through more regulation, rules, and planning.

Determining the ecological security pattern and important ecological regions based on the supply-demand of ecosystem services: A case study of Xuzhou City, China

The supply-demand for ecosystem services (ESs) is the bridge between ecological security patterns (ESPs) and human wellbeing. This study proposed a research framework of ESP of "supply-demand-corridor-node" and took Xuzhou, China, as a research case, providing a new perspective for the construction of ESPs. The framework was divided into four sections: identifying the ecological source based on the ESs supply; utilizing multi-source economic-social data to characterize the demand of ESs and constructing a resistance surface; defining the ecological corridor in the study area by employing the Linkage Mapper; and identifying crucial ecological protection/restoration areas along the ecological corridor. The results showed that the area of the supply source of ESs in Xuzhou City is 573.89 km², accounting for 5.19% of the city's total area. The spatial distribution of 105 ecological corridors revealed that there were multiple and dense ecological corridors in the middle of the city, but few in the northwest and southeast. A total of 14 ecological protection areas were located primarily in the south of the urban area, and 10 ecological restoration areas were located primarily in the middle and north of the urban area, with a total area of 4.74 km². The findings of this article will be useful in developing ESPs and determining important ecological protection/restoration areas in Xuzhou, China. The research framework could potentially be used in other areas.

Spatial characteristics of nutrient budget on town scale in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

Accurately quantifying nutrient budget is an essential step toward sustainable nutrient management in large watersheds increasingly disturbed by human activity. A town-scale nutrient budget framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for 2010-2012 in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China (TGRA). Moran's I spatial correlation test and Geodetector spatial heterogeneity test were employed to systematically analyze the spatial characteristics of the resulting nutrient budget. The Moran's I value of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) gradually increased from input to output in the range of 0.091-0.232 and 0.102-0.484, respectively. Towns with higher TN and TP inputs were largely concentrated in the main urban area of Chongqing because of its high population density. By contrast, towns with higher TN and TP outputs were concentrated in the head of the TGRA. The Moran's I values of the TN and TP retention coefficients (R) were 0.433 and 0.524, respectively, demonstrating clear spatial consistency. Towns with a "High-high" spatial consistency pattern and positive R value were concentrated in the tail and hinterland, while those with a "Low-low" spatial consistency pattern and negative coefficient value were located mainly in the head of the TGRA. This phenomenon was mostly caused by differences in regional elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index, and soil erosion factor. The interaction effect between any two of these three factors on nutrient retention (Geodetector q-value) was greater than 60%. Therefore, future nutrient management should be based on a full understanding of regional biophysical conditions, especially in large areas. These findings provide a new perspective on fine nutrient management.

An ecological perspective for understanding regional integration based on ecosystem service budgets, bundles, and flows: A case study of the Jinan metropolitan area in China

Regional integration can contribute to co-occurring benefits of different parts of an urban agglomeration by managing these parts as a whole. However, current regional integration mainly focuses on the socioeconomic rather than the ecological dimension. To interpret regional ecological integration, we firstly selected six typical ecosystem services (ESs) to represent ecological benefits that potentially need to be improved by ecological integration for further analysis. Then we used ES budgets, bundles, and flows to investigate the potential, basic analysis unit, and occurring manners of ecological integration, respectively. Our results show that supply-demand mismatches were observed in all the ES types. Meanwhile, coexisting ES surpluses and deficits on the town scale were found in supporting biodiversity, soil retention, water yield, green space recreation, and crop yield, which indicates that their supply-demand mismatches can be mitigated with ecological integration. Furthermore, all the towns were classified into five spatial clusters with distinct ES budget bundles, which acted as the basic analysis unit of ecological integration. ES flows with three flow characteristic types were observed between different clusters, and all the clusters had ES provider-beneficiary relationships with each other. Based on the ES approach, we provided an ecological perspective for understanding regional integration, which has the potential to promote regional ecological sustainability.

Effects of Afforestation Projects on Tradeoffs between Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Guanting Reservoir Basin, China

Evaluating the responses of ecosystem services (ESs) to local land-use changes is critical for understanding the effects of ecological projects related to land planning. Change patterns in the interrelationships between ESs delivered by land-use changes, which are helpful for formulating future strategies, have not been well studied. In this study, we quantified four ESs, namely water yield (WY), water and soil conservation, nonpoint pollution control, and carbon sequestration services, based on the soil and water assessment tool model (SWAT) in the Zhangjiakou section of the Guanting Reservoir watershed, a region with a high concentration of afforestation projects. The impacts of land-use changes on changes in ESs and interrelationships of ESs were investigated by redundancy analysis. The results showed that, along with afforestation, regional water conservation and soil organic carbon content increased by 3.22% and 1.08%, respectively, whereas sediment output, WY, phosphorus output, and nitrogen output decreased by 1.82%, 3.07%, 8.08%, and 12.51%, respectively. Significant tradeoffs of regional ESs were observed between WY and other ESs, while synergies existed between other ESs. Increased areas of evergreen and deciduous forests helped in conserving water, fixing carbon, and regulating runoff. Evergreen forests tended to conserve more water than deciduous forests. With the increase in grassland area, most of the ESs can be improved while introducing fewer tradeoffs compared with those of most of other land-use types. This study provided a better understanding of the effects of afforestation on ESs tradeoffs and benefits to develop better ecological conservation strategies in afforestation regions.

Allocating and mapping ecosystem service demands with spatial flow from built-up areas to natural spaces

Co-urbanized areas around large cities in developing countries face the problem of spatial disconnection between supply and demand areas of ecosystem services (ES). To explore the reflection of human needs in the nonadjacent surrounding natural spaces and identify the response of the existing natural space system to the ES demand in terms of total amount and spatial distribution, a new method for ES demand mapping in co-urbanized areas was proposed. Based on the theory of the ES delivery chain, urban built-up areas are identified as service benefiting areas (SBAs) and the sources where demands are generated, natural spaces are regarded as service provision areas (SPAs) and the sinks and destinations where demands are satisfied, and ES spatial flow is considered as the delivery mechanism and ecological process that promotes the demand flow from sources to sinks. An indicator cluster composed of four multidimensional indicators, including flow quantity, flow boundary, flow direction and allocation mode along the distance, was used to characterize the spatial flow and represent the four key links in the technical path of allocating ES demand from built-up areas to natural spaces with spatial flow to intuitively reflect the spatial characteristics of human social demands projected in them. We quantified and mapped the distribution of three ES demands in built-up areas and surrounding natural spaces. In the former, the high-demand spaces are concentrated in the areas with high population density or high aging degree; while in the latter, the high-demand spaces are mainly adjacent to the built-up areas or the large-scale natural spaces. By controlling the flow quantity, expanding the flow area, increasing the flow directions and improving the ES supply capacity of SPAs within a given distance, the high ES demands in the above spaces can be effectively regulated.

Considering landscape-level processes in ecosystem service assessments

The provision of ecosystem services is inherently spatial. Landscape structure affects service provision through multiple landscape-level processes, such as fragmentation, edge and connectivity effects. These processes can affect areas of ecosystem service supply and demand, and the flows linking those areas. Despite the emergence of sophisticated spatial ecosystem service assessments in the last two decades, we show through a literature review that landscape-level processes are still rarely considered in a comprehensive way. Even when they are considered, landscape effects are mostly limited to landscape composition, and configuration effects are underrepresented. Furthermore, most studies infer ecosystem service provision by only evaluating supply, ignoring demand and flows. Here we present a simple conceptual framework that illustrates how to incorporate landscape-level processes in the assessment of the different components of the service provision chain (supply, demand and flows). Using simulations, we evaluated how estimations of ecosystem service provision change when considering different landscape processes and discussed the implications of disregarding landscape effects. However, to fully implement the framework, a series of challenges linked to mapping and quantifying supply and demand, defining adequate scales of analysis, measuring flows, and parameterizing models for different types of services, still need to be overcome. To promote an adequate use and management of ecosystem services, it is essential to better incorporate landscape processes in ecosystem service assessments. This will lead to more quantitatively accurate and spatially precise estimates.