Multirisk: What trends in recent works? - A bibliometric analysis

Scientometric review on multiple climate-related hazards indices

As the spectre of climate change looms large, there is an increasing imperative to develop comprehensive risk assessment tools. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the evolution and current state of research on multi-hazard indices associated with climate-related hazards, highlighting their crucial role in effective risk assessment amidst the growing challenges of climate change. A notable gap in cross-regional comparative studies persists, presenting an opportunity for future research to enhance global understanding and foster universal resilience strategies. However, a significant surge in research output is apparent, following key global milestones related to climate change action. The research landscape is shown to be highly responsive to international policy developments, increasingly adopting interdisciplinary approaches that integrate physical, social, and technological dimensions. Findings reveal a robust emphasis on geospatial analysis and the development of various indices that transform abstract climate risks into actionable data, underscoring a trend towards localized, context-specific vulnerability assessments. Based on dataset systematically curated under the PRISMA guidelines, the review explores how prevailing research themes are reflected in influential journals and author networks, mapping out a dynamic and expanding academic community. Moreover, this work provides critical insights into the underlying literature by conducting a thematic analysis on the typology of studies, the focus on coastal areas, the inclusion of climate change scenarios, the geographical coverage, and the types of climate-related hazards. The practical implications of this review are profound, providing policymakers and practitioners with meaningful insights to enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts through the application of index-based methodologies. By charting a course for future scholarly endeavours, this article aims to strengthen the scientific foundations supporting resilient and adaptive strategies for regions worldwide facing the multifaceted impacts of climate change.

Holistic rockfall risk assessment in high mountain areas affected by seismic activity: Application to the Uspallata valley, Central Andes, Chile

Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. Risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. Notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. For this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. The probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process. Our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. Eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. Our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale QRAs in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining QRAs in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards.

Multi-hazard assessment of climate-related hazards for European coastal cities

The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city.

Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management

In our increasingly interconnected world, natural hazards and their impacts spread across geographical, administrative, and sectoral boundaries. Owing to the interrelationships between multi-hazards and socio-economic dimensions, the impacts of these types of events can surmount those of multiple single hazards. The complexities involved in tackling multi-hazards and multi-risks hinder a more holistic and integrative perspective and make it difficult to identify overarching dimensions important for assessment and management purposes. We contribute to this discussion by building on systemic risk research, especially the focus on interconnectedness, and suggest ways forward for an integrated multi-hazard and multi-risk framework that should be beneficial in real-world applications. In this article, we propose a six-step framework for analyzing and managing risk across a spectrum ranging from single-to multi- and systemic risk.

Towards a holistic paradigm for long-term snow avalanche risk assessment and mitigation

In mountain territories, snow avalanches are a prevalent threat. Long-term risk management involves defining meaningful compromises between protection and overall sustainability of communities and their environment. Methods able to (i) consider all sources of losses, (ii) account for the high uncertainty levels that affect all components of the risk and (iii) cope for marked non-stationarities should be employed. Yet, on the basis of a literature review and an analysis of relations to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is established that snow avalanche risk assessment and mitigation remain dominated by approaches that can be summed up as deterministic, hazard oriented, stationary and not holistic enough. A more comprehensive paradigm relying on formal statistical modelling is then proposed and first ideas to put it to work are formulated. Application to different mountain environments and broader risk problems is discussed.

Sustainable Development Goals and risks: The Yin and the Yang of the paths towards sustainability

The United Nations 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) define a path towards a sustainable future, but given that uncertainty characterises the outcomes of any SDG-related actions, risks in the implementation of the Agenda need to be addressed. At the same time, most risk assessments are narrowed to sectoral approaches and do not refer to SDGs. Here, on the basis of a literature review and workshops, it is analysed how SDGs and risks relate to each other's in different communities. Then, it is formally demonstrated that, as soon as the mathematical definition of risks is broadened to embrace a more systemic perspective, acting to maintain socio-environmental systems within their sustainability domain can be done by risk minimisation. This makes Sustainable Development Goals and risks "the Yin and the Yang of the paths towards sustainability". Eventually, the usefulness of the SDG-risk nexus for both sustainability and risk management is emphasized.

Assessing the environmental and social co-benefits and disbenefits of natural risk management measures

Risk management measures (RMM) participate in the sustainability of cities and communities through the protection of these socio-eco-environmental systems against threatening events, and by ensuring system recovery. They include structural measures that are grey or green/blue solutions, or hybrid solutions combining the two former types. These measures can provide environmental and social co-benefits (e.g., improved biodiversity, recreational services) and disbenefits (e.g., the development of unwanted flora, concentrations of pollutants). The aim of this article is to provide an approach to assess and compare RMMs by considering these different dimensions. An application to three natural hazards - floods, coastal floods and wildfires - is proposed. The approach takes the form of a procedure to assess the co-benefits/disbenefits of the various RMMs and some technical specifications. It allows comparing the performances of one RMM against another and collectively discussing the choice of RMMs that takes into account a wide range of dimensions. The approach is based on the formulation of eight sustainability criteria and thirty-one indicators. The results were graphically displayed as several types of diagram: one radar chart per RMM, compiling all the indicators; one radar chart by type of risk studied (flood, wildfire and coastal flooding) based on averages of indicators per criterion; a table of the global score assigned to each RMM calculated with an arithmetic mean or a weighted mean. The approach relies on an interdisciplinary research team and involves end-users in a focus group for the validation step. This approach constitutes a transparent base for decision-making processes in the context of sustainable spatial planning against natural risks.

A Comprehensive Assessment of Exposure and Vulnerabilities in Multi-Hazard Urban Environments: A Key Tool for Risk-Informed Planning Strategies

Although the increase in the frequency and intensity of disasters assigns a key role to disaster risk management in current debate on sustainable development, the efforts of national and local authorities to develop risk-informed planning strategies and increase disaster preparedness are still limited. In multi-hazard urban environments, the main criticality to support risk-informed planning strategies is the persisting lack of effective knowledge bases focused on the vulnerability of exposed assets to different hazards. Hence, this contribution, according to the first priority of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction—understanding disaster risk—and by tidying up methods and indicators developed in both EU research projects and scientific studies devoted to multi-risk and vulnerability assessment, aims at better using available knowledge to guide risk-informed spatial planning. In detail, an indicator-based method to carry out a comprehensive exposure and vulnerability analysis has been outlined and tested on a case study area, the multi-hazard urban area of Campi Flegrei, located in the western part of the metropolitan city of Naples in the South of Italy. The proposed method may contribute to the building up of an effective risk knowledge base, enabling planners to easily access information on exposure and vulnerabilities to different hazards, and to differently combine them into output maps capable of supporting risk- informed planning strategies.